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J.P. Morgan Gives Lyft Shares a Boost

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 03:00 AM PDT

Ride share apps have replaced the traditional taxi business

Despite a big drop for the average stock today, shares of recent-IPO Lyft (LYFT) surged higher about 5 percent. This came on a recommendation at J.P. Morgan recommending the stock, citing the potential for rise to $86, a 57 percent boost from current prices.

The report further cites potential improvement as competition slows down in the space, and high-growth rates can be maintained.

While Lyft has yet to report earnings for the first time as a publicly-traded company, competitor Uber reported on Thursday. Despite losing $1 billion during the quarter, the numbers came in better than expected. Uber also expects to be able to lower its costs going forward as well.

Action to Take: Stick to the product, not the stock. Despite being sold as a tech name, Lyft is still an unprofitable, low-margin business. That may change after reporting a few quarterly earnings numbers, however.

A daring investor may want to look at the January 2020 $40 put, betting on further downside from here. At around $3.30 per contract right now, a drop in shares back to the post-IPO low could have 50-75 percent profits from here.

Insider Activity: The Hershey Company (HSY)

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 03:00 AM PDT


A chocolate bar, one of the most recognized brands built by Hershey

Multiple insiders at The Hershey Company (HSY) have been buying shares, even with the company trading close to all-time highs.

These buys include the CFO and President, and amount to nearly $500,000. More buys may be coming in the next few days.

Typically, corporate insiders pick up shares when they sense an undervaluation. The only reason for insiders—already picking up a paycheck there—to buy more shares in the open market are in anticipation of a bigger move higher.

Over the past several years, offers have been made to buy out Hershey, but all have fallen flat. The voting majority rests with The Milton Hershey Foundation, but another yet-unknown move may be on the way to unlock shareholder value.

The fact that the president and CFO are buyers now, as opposed to a vice president or director buy, is a bullish sign, even following the rally in shares year-to-date.

Action to take: At these prices, shares are simply too rich. Consider a call option instead, such as the January 2020 $140 call, which has a current bid/ask spread around $4.30.

While that option could expire worthless, it could also double within two to three months if shares keep moving higher at the rate they have.

Unusual Options Activity: AT&T (T)

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 03:00 AM PDT

Networks and now content are the backbone of AT&T’s success

Some traders are betting on a drop in AT&T (T).

The telecom/media conglomerate has been trading in a $30-33 range for most of the past year, with the recent downturn taking shares down to around $30 on Friday.

With a surge in volume on June put options for $29.50 and $30.00, some traders are expecting further weakness in shares before June options contracts expire, although not by much. This may indicate some more short-term market fear, but not too much more than what we've seen in the past few weeks.

The $29.50 puts saw over 6,750 contracts trade, and the $30 puts saw over 12,600 contracts trade, more than 20 times the previous trading volume for those contracts.

This type of bet is most likely a way to profit from market weakness rather than a company-specific problem. In the latter case, more volume on lower strike prices would have been used, and an options trader would have gone further out than a few weeks to ensure enough time for the trade to play out.

Given the strike prices on these options are close to where shares trade, further downside looks limited, with the potential for shares to dip under $30.

Action to take: Look for a buying opportunity in shares under $30 in the coming weeks. With a solid dividend and the faster growth rates from the Time Warner acquisition, the company can pay you a generous dividend yield to wait for a rebound.

U.S. to Hit Mexico with Tariffs

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 03:00 AM PDT

Tensions between the two countries rise, sending markets in turmoil

Tired by decades of broken promises and record-high border crossings, President Trump announced a series of tariffs against Mexico until the country works to fix its problem with illegal immigration to the United States.

Under the policy, tariffs will go into effect starting on June 10th, with a starting rate of 5 percent. They will ratchet up to a maximum of 25 percent by October.

Besides impacting the overall stock market, the tariffs will likely hit some sectors harder than others. The biggest loser will be the automotive space, as most automobile parts created in North America are done so in Mexico. Estimates are about 35 percent of all auto exports come from south of the border.

Other areas impacted by tariffs with Mexico include oil. The nation has a sizeable energy industry, and the United States is one of its largest exports for its oil production.

Finally, food and drink, particularly spirits, are a major source of trade between the two countries.

The surprising move, coming off of the earlier China tariffs this week, show that President Trump has no qualms about fighting multiple trade war fronts at the same time.

Stocks were off about 1.2 percent on the day. Oil fell over 5 percent on fears of reduced global trade. Gold prices popped 1.3 percent to close over $1,300 per ounce.

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Posted: 03 Jun 2019 12:15 AM PDT

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