Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250
- Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Downbeat IMF Global Outlook
- USD May Rise on IMF Economic Outlook, GBP Braces for New UK PM
- Puzzled By AUD Gains As Rates Fall? Blame the Fed and Iron Ore
- Pound Awaits New PM, Euro the ECB and Dollar a Distant Fed Decision
- ASX Range Holds Key To Near-Term Direction, Broad Uptrend Safe
- Will the 200-Day SMA Continue to Offer Resistance?
- Silver Prices Play Catch Up to Gold’s 6 Year Highs; What’s Next?
- Bitcoin (BTC) Pending Bull Flag With $10,000 Eyed as Support
- Euro Outlook Turns Volatile as ECB Weighs Rate Cut
| Posted: 23 Jul 2019 03:01 AM PDT Hits: 8 FTSE 100 Analysis and News
Boris Johnson in for a Tough Time The next Prime Minister Boris Johnson will face a tough time from the off with his confirmation as the next Tory Leader likely to be met with more resignations from the Conservative party (Philip Hammond and David Gauke to resign). That said, the margin of victory for Boris Johnson will carry some weight as a strong win will suggest firm support for Mr. Johnson's Brexit stance. (Of note, the final Conservative Home Poll had Boris Johnson gaining 73%). However, result that is below 60% could inspire those MPs who are against a no-deal Brexit. Consequently, given that uncertainty will continue to reign, gains in the Pound are likely to be limited, thus supporting the FTSE 100 over the FTSE 250. Conservatives Losing its Majority in Parliament – General Election Possible Yesterday, it had been reported that Tory MP Charlie Elphicke had been charged with sexual assault, consequently losing his Tory whip. In turn, this reduces the Conservatives working majority to three. There is also a high probability that the by-election on August 1st will see the Tory's lose their seat, further reducing the working majority to one. As such, with risks rising that there could be additional defections and resignations, the government under Boris Johnson is likely to be rather weak. Therefore, an early election could be a potential solution for Boris Johnson, particularly given the dwindling support for the Labour party. However, for an election to take place, it is likely that a further extension would be needed to facilitate one. FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250: Political Uncertainty Reigns Given that a Boris Johnson government is unlikely to reduce the current uncertainty and with his rhetoric that he is willing to carry out a no-deal Brexit. The FTSE 100 stands pat to outperform relative to the FTSE 250 amid weakness in the Pound. Of note, the Pound has a negative correlation with the FTSE 100, largely on the basis that a weak Pound supports FTSE 100 profitability with two thirds of the revenue generated from the top 100 companies generated overseas. While for the FTSE 250, a weak Pound will typically weigh on the domestically focused FTSE 250. KEY TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Downbeat IMF Global Outlook Posted: 23 Jul 2019 12:20 AM PDT Hits: 16 GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices edged down as bond yields and the US Dollarrose, sapping the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets epitomized by the metal. The move appeared to be driven by news of a deal between Congressional Democrats and the White House to suspend the Federal debt limit for two years. The accord amounts to raising budget caps by $320 billion. The move avoids a so-called "fiscal cliff": Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has warned that the US might have missed debt payments in September without a deal. It also reduces the burden on the Fed to deliver policy stimulus via the monetary channel. Crude oil prices idled in the meanwhile. Oversupply fears linked to cooling demand prospects courtesy of slowing global growth and near-record US output appeared to be offset by worries about shipment disruptions in the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway as Iran lashes out against US-driven export sanctions. GOLD, CRUDE OIL PRICES MAY FALL ON DOWNBEAT IMF FORECAST UPDATEAn updated IMF World Economic Outlook might take center stage from here. The fund is likely to slash global growth forecasts further. With seemingly little room for this to stoke a deeper dovish shift in Fed policy bets – a go-to lifeline for gloomy markets recently – the result may be broad-based risk aversion. To the extent that this inspires de-risking, it may put a premium on the unrivaled liquidity offered by the US Dollar, sending it higher at gold's expense. Cycle-sensitive crude oil may likewise suffer, though geopolitics and incoming API inventories data may muddy matters. A 4.2-million-barrel drawdown is expected. Get the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISThe appearance of a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern coupled with negative RSI divergence warns that gold prices may be carving out a top. Confirmation on a break below rising trend support set from May – now at 1404.07 – initially targets the July 1 low at 1381.91. Alternatively, a push above resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1447.89 aims for the 50% level at 1468.27 next. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to mark time above support at 54.84. Breaking below it on a daily closing basis initially exposes the next layer of support in the 49.41-50.60 area. Alternatively, a turn upward that brings prices above resistance at 58.19 sets the stage for another challenge of the 60.04-84 region.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| USD May Rise on IMF Economic Outlook, GBP Braces for New UK PM Posted: 22 Jul 2019 11:42 PM PDT Hits: 12 UK PRIME MINISTER, BREXIT, IMF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, US DOLLAR – TALKING POINTS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! The US Dollar and the British Pound may have a turbulent day tomorrow as Theresa May prepares to announce her successor and heir to the perils of Brexit while the IMF's publishes an updated World Economic Outlook. The report will likely be underscored by gloomy presentiments and in line with the previous release titled "A Weakening Global Expansion." Political contagion of protectionism and trade wars in the developed economies is now spreading to the developing world where inter-emerging market tensions are escalating against the backdrop of a slowing global economy. Furthermore, rising debt levels combined with the proliferation of collateralized loans with abysmal underwriting standards are conjuring a familiar specter, sending a chilling wind across financial markets. Read more about how leveraged loans could collapse the global financial system. Risk aversion linked to uncertainty stemming from Boris Johnson's approach to Brexit may push GBPUSD lower with the IMF's publication amplifying risk aversion and the pair's decline. During times of uncertainty, investors place a premium on liquidity and divert capital to haven assets in an effort to mitigate losses. From the downward pressure of Brexit and a stronger USD, Cable may find itself breaking below critical support. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSISSterling traders will be biting their nails tomorrow amid a growing downside bias in light of the fundamental environment in the UK. GBPUSD has tested the resistance-turned-support channel before, though the quick bounce back is telling. However, the case for a break below key support exhorts traders to reconsider their trepidation in committing capital that supports a downward bias. In other words: downward pressure expected. CHART OF THE DAY: CAPITULATION INEVITABLE? GBP TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Puzzled By AUD Gains As Rates Fall? Blame the Fed and Iron Ore Posted: 22 Jul 2019 10:17 PM PDT Hits: 8 Australian Dollar Talking Points:
Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We'd love to have you along. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a rare series of back–to–back interest rate cuts with its July reduction of the Official Cash Rate to just 1%. And what happened to AUDUSD? Well, it has risen since. Indeed, it has made the only the second serious attempt at the upper boundary of its long-term downtrend channel since early 2018. Clearly all else being equal a dramatic fall in interest rates should have seen the Aussie slide, even if the moves were quite well expected. Of course, all else is never equal and one or two factors have conspired to push the Aussie up. First of course there's the US Federal Reserve. It has moved over a similar time frame from waiting and seeing to priming the markets for an interest rate cut of its own, possibly as soon as this month. A quarter-point cut to the Fed Funds Target Rate on July 31 is now judged a 76% probability according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's popular Fedwatch tool. This prospect has weakened the Greenback across the board, with the Australian Dollar participating fully despite its own low yield. Iron Ore Prices Should be Closely WatchedBut there's another factor in play which, while probably less important than the Fed, is a useful reminder of how many different hats the Australian Dollar wears as an investment asset. Iron ore prices have risen steadily through this year, despite worries about global growth, as bad weather in Australia and a deadly dam breach in Brazil have weighed on global supply. Both countries are massive exporters of ore. Chinese demand has also held up. Now the price is close to US$120 per tonne, having started the year down a $70. Chinese buyers of vital Australian ore need Aussie Dollars to pay for it, so it's not hard to see a major source of support for the currency at these elevated price levels. Now, neither iron ore prices or the Fed need necessarily lighten the big bearish weight which has dragged the Aussie lower over the past two years. There's unlikely to be a major reversal of the Aussie's downtrend while domestic inflation remains subdued and base rates are on the mat. But both bear very close watching in the near term. They've certainly got the power to slow the Australian Dollar's rate of descent, particularly as markets feel that the RBA has done most of the monetary easing it's likely to undertake in this cycle. Resources for TradersWhether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Pound Awaits New PM, Euro the ECB and Dollar a Distant Fed Decision Posted: 22 Jul 2019 09:04 PM PDT Hits: 10 Volatility Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Anticipation Creates a Quiet Start to the WeekWe opened to a remarkably quiet pace of market activity Monday. The Dow Index was essentially unchanged on the day while the S&P 500 established an ‘inside day’ to Friday’s larger range. In the FX market, the world’s most liquid pairing, EURUSD, traversed an incredibly restricted 19.4 pips through the entire trading day. That is the smallest scope for this benchmark pair since January 1, 2018 which is not an apples-to-apples comparison to normal market conditions given it is a holiday period with particularly severe restrictions on liquidity. Market depth is not currently a major restriction on trade, so it is sheer anticipation that is keeping the markets from ‘normal’ levels of activity. Chart of EURUSD and 1-Day Range (Daily) Given the high level event risk that is a little further out on the economic docket, it is no surprise that there is hesitation to set the speculative compass here and now. Monetary policy has its two largest central banks (Fed and ECB) due to update their bearings at their respective policy meetings on Thursday this week and Wednesday the week after. That alone is a profound reason not to commit to a bullish or bearish course on EURUSD. External support from the world’s most reliable sources of stimulus is a global matter in speculative terms, but perhaps a little more tangible is the clear reading on global growth expected this week as well. Wednesday will bring the global PMIs (US, Eurozone, Japan, Australia) for July which is a strong proxy for official figures. Then of course, Friday holds the United States 2Q GDP update. Anticipation cannot hold back prevailing fundamental tides, but at the moment, there is no such relentless pressure. Trade Wars and Monetary Policy Represent Less-Reliable Milestones for FundamentalsWhile much of the interest in economic activity is anchored to events ahead of us, there was still noteworthy clues as to the health of global output this past session. In the United States, the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index for last month unexpectedly posted a contraction (-0.02) versus a 0.08 growth and following last month’s -0.03. Further, in the 2020 Presidential campaign, we are seeing economic activity used as a front for debate. While the Trump Administration has regularly hailed the performance of the economy and benchmark equity indices, Democrat hopeful Elizabeth Warren wrote on a oncoming crash with mention of a yield curve inversion and trade wars with a clear reference to the lead in to the 2008 financial crisis. It seems everyone is talking about the Treasury yield nowadays. Chart of US 10-Year to 3-Month Treasury Yields Curve with Recessions in Red (Monthly)
Meanwhile, the less-reliably paced trade wars nevertheless poses a frequent risk to stability. By volatility, there is just as readily an opportunity for improvement as deterioration. Reports Monday that US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are expected to fly to China next week for face-to-face discussions with trade counterparts raises hope that a breakthrough can be found with the proper persuasion. What enthusiasm that could bring in a neutral backdrop though is lost in a world that has been drawn into the hope of resolutions many times in the recent past only to see fulfillment never reached. Alternatively, we were reminded of the lingering risk from a spread of trade wars beyond the clearly defined US-China escalation. EU Director General of Trade Sabine Weyand was in Washington for the first time in her new role reassuring their commitment to work with the US on WTO rules while also warning they were ready to respond to any sudden moves towards unilateral trade barriers by the US – such as auto tariffs. Chart of USDCNH and 20-Day ATR (Daily)
Monetary policy is another ready source of potential flare-ups moving forward. While there are very clear dates to track moving forward – particularly the ECB decision on Thursday and FOMC decision next week – speculation before the official meetings will be in overdrive. Eurozone consumer confidence and the PMI figures tomorrow will be evaluated from the perspective of what it can do to hasten or slow the ECB’s pressure to return to government bond purchases. As for the US central bank, President Trump seems to be back on the blowhorn. He once again targeted the Fed, saying Powell and company should not “miss it again”. On that same frequency, Trump’s suggested next Fed nominee Judy Shelton was on the wires suggesting she would support a steeper rate cut (50 basis points) at the end of the month. That will definitely get on the White House’s good side. That said, the official consensus is still projecting no change from Fed this year versus market expectations of a cut this month and two or three total in 2019. Chart of DXY Dollar Index and Expected Rate Cuts at July 31st Fed Decision (Daily)
What Should We Expect from the Pound with a New PM Announced?Top event risk for the upcoming session may very well be the Pound – a currency that has refused fundamental charge from alternative sources other than the frustratingly stodgy Brexit situation. This past session, the NIESR updated growth forecasts for the UK to 1.2 percent this year and 1.1 percent for the next – from 1.4 and 1.6 percent respectively. That would be the result of a forecasted 0.1 percent quarterly contraction this quarter, though the anticipation of a successive quarterly contraction (a technical recession) only stands at 25 percent. This strained outlook is in large part the reflection of the damage already wrought by the uncertainty around the Brexit. Chart of EURGBP with 20-Day Moving Average (Daily)
Yet there may finally be at least some measure of progress on the significantly delayed divorce of the UK from the EU in the upcoming session. We are reportedly due word on who the next leader of the Conservative Party will be Tuesday during London’s session. Though it is not certain, Boris Johnson is still leading in the opinion polls for both head of party and country. Johnson has voiced a greater openness to using a disruptive no-deal option if the EU does not budge further on the previous withdrawal agreement agreed by May and Juncker. Already, we have heard there are threatened resignations among MPs including Chancellor of Exchequer Phillip Hammond. It remains to be seen whether the market has already fully discounted the risk of a disorderly breakup. Aussie Dollar Remains a Technical Outlier, Swiss Franc a Fundamental AnomalyIf you are looking outside of the set tracks of high prominence, fundamental influence; the list of interesting currencies can prove quite short. Ultimately, the separation of influence to the Fed, ECB, trade wars and prominent growth fears is a difficult fundamental well to escape. The Australian Dollar is not exactly fully free of the outside influences – the Aussie economy has distinctly connected itself to China’s. However, there is greater separation between the Australian Dollar’s performance and the likes of the Yuan. As it happens though, there are a range of Aussie-based crosses where the currency finds itself hitting meaningful resistance: EURAUD; AUDJPY; GBPAUD and AUDCAD. Keep tabs on those pairs. Chart of EURAUD (Daily)
In a different vein, the Swiss Franc seems to be dealing with its own unique issues that could bring the currency to a breaking point…again. With EURCHF dropping to a fresh two-year low, we are reminded of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) vow to keep its currency from appreciating too rapidly or significantly (Europe is its key trading partner). The pressure is on as Switzerland is attempting to arrest the influence of a far larger central bank than itself with tools already pushed back to the breaking point between negative rates and a failed exchange rate curb. What can they reasonably due from here if prompted remains to be seen. I will be watching the Franc’s actions moving forward. We discuss all of his and more in today’s Trading Video. Chart of EURCHF with 200-Day Moing Average (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-23 03:54:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| ASX Range Holds Key To Near-Term Direction, Broad Uptrend Safe Posted: 22 Jul 2019 07:15 PM PDT Hits: 6 ASX 200 Technical Analysis Talking Points:
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar's chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page. The ASX 200 has something for everyone at the moment and that of course is a problem. Bulls can point to the index's enduring close proximity to the all-time highs of 2007 and the clear endurance of the long, impressive uptrend channel which has been in place all year. However, the more pessimistic can counter that the index has yet to top its previous notable high. That was July 5's intraday top of 6777.0. They might then go on to say that the most recent passage of trade since the middle of June has been more about ranging than rising, and that the ASX shows clear signs of topping out. Both arguments stand up and, annoyingly, momentum indicators aren't coming down on one side or the other. The ASX's Relative Strength Indicator languishes at an inconclusive 58- flagging neither overbought or oversold conditions. However the key to which side will one win probably lies in which direction that range breaks. It's quite broad, lying between that June 5 peak and Jun2 19's low if 6225.8. A word of caution is warranted though, those are both intraday levels and their daily-close counterparts may provide a more meaningful band here. They make the range somewhat narrower and put it between 6751.5 and 6623.0. A break lower through that range base would not necessarily threaten the overall uptrend, but it would at the very least put focus on support in the 6492 area which was topped back in mid-June. Were that to fail then concerns might start to grow of a channel test. An upside range break would be extremely positive and keep hopes of a return to those record highs very much alive. Those currently uncommitted might want to wait and see which break they get in the end. At this point, and given the clear lack of any immediate profit taking impulse at current levels- elevated by any definition, the bulls still have cause to hope. ASX 200 Resources for TradersWhether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Will the 200-Day SMA Continue to Offer Resistance? Posted: 22 Jul 2019 06:01 PM PDT Hits: 7 Australian Dollar Talking PointsAUDUSD continues to pullback from the monthly-high (0.7082) amid little indications of a US-China trade deal, and the near-term rebound appears to have stalled ahead of the 200-Day SMA (0.7090) as the exchange rate fails to extend the recent string of higher highs and lows. AUDUSD Forecast: Will the 200-Day SMA Continue to Offer Resistance?AUDUSD cleared the May-high (0.7061) on the back of growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and it seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will alter the course for monetary policy at the next interest rate decision on July 31 as the "apparent progress on trade turned to greater uncertainty." It remains to be seen if the Fed will reverse the four rate hikes from 2018 amid the mixed views within the FOMC, but the central bank may have little choice but to insulate the US economy from the shift in trade policy as Chairman Jerome Powell pledges to "act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective." There seems to be little indications of an imminent US-China trade deal especially as President Donald Trump tweets that it's "very unfair that other countries manipulate their currencies," and the FOMC may ultimately deliver an "insurance cut" as Fed Fund futures highlight overwhelming expectations for at least a 25bp reduction. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on August 6 after implementing back-to-back rate cuts, and the looming change in US monetary policy may largely influence the broader outlook for the Aussie Dollar exchange rate as President Trump insists that "the Fed raised & tightened far too much & too fast." Keep in mind, the AUDUSD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7090), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in April. With that said, AUDUSD may face a larger pullback ahead of the Fed interest rate decision as the exchange rate fails to extend the recent string of higher highs and lows. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups. AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart
Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019 — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-23 00:30:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Silver Prices Play Catch Up to Gold’s 6 Year Highs; What’s Next? Posted: 22 Jul 2019 02:03 PM PDT Hits: 8 Silver has rallied into a cluster of resistance while Gold's rally is losing momentum. A small dip to correct the recent strength is considered normal in Elliott Wave Theory. The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from July 22, 2019. We focused on the Elliott wave patterns for key markets such as silver, gold, DXY, EURUSD and USDJPY. Silver price forecast points higher after correctionOur silver price forecast is for continued gains so long as it trades above $15.94. Back on May 20 while using Elliott Wave Theory, we forecasted a meaningful bottom forming soon and an initial upside target level of $16.70. The bottom eventually formed on May 28 and silver prices reached $16.59 last week. The recent rise for silver prices has been quick and large, but silver continues to trade well below its all-time high of $50.35 per ounce recorded intraday in January 1980. The wave structure of the recent up trend has us contemplating a couple options. The current rise has pitted silver prices against an equal wave channel. Therefore, some type of reaction lower would be normal. So long as silver holds above $15.94, then we will focus on the option that calls for continued strength up towards $18 per ounce. Under this scenario, the current Elliott wave as .3 of 3. A move below $15.94 does not eliminate higher pricing eventually, but merely opens the door for more bearish scenarios. Though not anticipated, should silver prices fall below $15.94, then we will consider those bearish options more heavily. Read more… Gold prices reach for 6-year highs on slowing momentumGold prices have zoomed to their highest level since 2013. Though the recent rise has been aggressive, we can count this Elliott wave pattern as incomplete to the upside. Some wave relationships exist nearby at $1470 which may provide some temporary resistance. A dip back towards $1340-$1400 would be viewed as a favorable development, especially if the waves lower are sloppy and overlapping. Sloppy and overlapping waves are indicative of corrective waves which then implies future up trend. Should gold prices be supported, there is a grouping of wave relationships just below $1600 per ounce. A meaningful break above $1470 opens the door to consider $1600 as a viable target. Therefore, we are considering the current Elliott wave to be near the end of wave A of (Y)…both are bullish waves. When wave A terminates, look for wave B of (Y) to be a partial retracement lower followed by wave C of (Y) higher. This gold forecast remains valid so long as gold trades above $1266. Read more… Bitcoin vs Gold: top differences traders should know
EURUSD sports an impulsive wave that may lead to new lowThe EURUSD Elliott wave pattern has been a mess for most of 2019. The sloppy sideways price action has made it difficult to ascertain the wave picture. However, the price action for the past couple weeks has opened an opportunity for bears. On an intraday chart, we can identify a bearish impulse in the making. As a result of this bearish impulse, EURUSD may work itself down into the 1.10 handle clearing the previous support formed in 2019. This EURUSD forecast is valid so long as prices remain below 1.1412. Bottom line look for new lows below 1.11 to form while EURUSD trades below 1.1412.
Elliott Wave Theory FAQHow does Elliott Wave theory work? Elliott Wave theory is a trading study that identifies the highs and lows of price movements on charts via wave patterns. Traders analyze the waves for 5-wave moves and 3-wave corrections to determine where the market is at within the larger pattern. Additionally, the theory maintains three rules and several guidelines on the depth of the waves related to one another. Therefore, it is common to use Fibonacci with Elliott Wave analysis. We cover these topics in our beginners and advanced Elliott Wave trading guides. After reviewing the guides above, be sure to follow future Elliott Wave articles to see Elliott Wave Theory in action. —Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M Jeremy Wagner is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master's designation. Jeremy provides Elliott Wave analysis on key markets as well as Elliott Wave educational resources. Read more of Jeremy's Elliott Wave reports via his bio page. Join Jeremy in his live US Opening Bell webinar where these markets and more are discussed through Elliott wave theory. Follow Jeremy on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader . Recent Elliott Wave analysis you might be interested in…S&P 500 Patterns Point to an Eventual December Low Retest http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Bitcoin (BTC) Pending Bull Flag With $10,000 Eyed as Support Posted: 22 Jul 2019 01:25 PM PDT Hits: 14 BITCOIN PRICE CHART – TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has drifted considerably lower since its impressive stretch of gains recorded during the first half of the year. While BTC currently trades around $10,300 – down about 25% from its 2019 high inked last month – the cryptocurrency threatens to rebound higher with a bounce off near-side technical support. BITCOIN PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 30, 2018 TO JULY 22, 2019)The recent pullback in Bitcoin, although worrisome on the surface, could be a constructive pattern of consolidation for bullish momentum to continue. This is suggested by the bull flag forming on the daily BTC price chart which is highlighted above. Additionally, prospects for a bounce higher in bitcoin is also posed by BTC price action hovering around the critical level of technical support at $10,000. This psychologically-significant area of confluence is highlighted by bullish uptrend support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the cryptocurrency's year-to-date trading range. Although BTC dipped below this support zone last week, the move to the downside seemingly lacked conviction as the cryptocurrency quickly rebounded. BITCOIN PRICE CHART: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (JULY 31, 2017 TO JULY 22, 2019)
The $10,000 price level is also highlighted by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of Bitcoin's trading range since its all-time high back in December 2017. Again, this consolidation zone could provide bitcoin with a bit of buoyance and help keep BTC bid and a bullish bias intact. If bitcoin fails to hold this key technical support level, however, price action could swiftly sour and drive BTC down toward the $7,000 price area. BITCOIN PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (JUNE 10, 2019 TO JULY 22, 2019)
Zooming back in on a closer time frame, there are two well-defined trendlines BTC price action could continue consolidating between and are worth keeping close tabs on. That said, bitcoin price action appears likely to keep coiling in the short-term as it aims for a retest of its critical support zone around $10,000 before making its next push higher. A breakout above the downtrend line, if confirmed, could see bitcoin bulls target the $11,500 price level. Conversely, if technical support fails to hold, the world's most popular cryptocurrency could sink further with bears potentially eyeing $7,000. FOREX TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Euro Outlook Turns Volatile as ECB Weighs Rate Cut Posted: 22 Jul 2019 11:34 AM PDT Hits: 10 Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Neutral
See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides. Euro Rates Week in ReviewThe Euro finished broadly lower as the calendar turned through mid-July, slipping lower in the second half of the week as the July ECB meeting has come into focus. EUR/NZD was the worst performing cross, down by -1.50%, doubling losses by its antipodean cousin, EUR/AUD, which shed -0.75%. Weakness in both crude oil prices and Brent oil prices curtailed the energy sector-sensitive EUR/CAD, which only fell by -0.20% over the week. Elsewhere, with global equity markets pulling back amid speculation that the Federal Reserve won't be too heavy handed with its dovish policy action in the near-term, the trio of safe haven currencies posted gains versus the Euro as well: EUR/CHF fell by -0.67%; EUR/JPY fell by -0.62%; and EUR/USD dropped by -0.44%. Preliminary July PMI Readings Due on WednesdayThe upcoming economic calendar for the last full week of July is unevenly distributed for the Euro; taking on a 'humped' shape, the Euro economic calendar is light at the start and end of the week with significant events occurring in the middle. The preliminary JulyFrench, German, and Eurozone PMI surveys due on Wednesdaycould have significant bearing on the July ECB meeting just one day later. After all, with markets essentially discounting a coin flip's chance of a rate cut, every piece of data leading up to the July ECB meeting will be closely scrutinized. The forecast of 52.1 for the headline Eurozone Composite PMI would only constitute a slight moderation from the 52.2 reading seen in June, suggesting a soft growth environment persists. Eurozone Economic Data Showing Steady ImprovementAn objective look at European economic data shows that conditions have improved, relatively speaking, over the past few weeks. In recent days we've seen the May Eurozone Trade Balance post a larger than expected surplus and the final June Eurozone Consumer Price Index come in slightly higher than expected. Accordingly, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone, a gauge of economic data momentum, has improved to -8.8 by the end of last week; three months ago, it was at –43.3. Eurozone Inflation Expectations Have Turned Higher
Despite the recent drop in energy prices, the weaker Euro has seemingly been enough to offset the decline by crude and Brent oil prices; a direct indication that markets are pricing in dovish policy action by the ECB (reflexively, if the ECB eases, then interest rate expectations should have bottomed. Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi's preferred measure of inflation, the 5y5y inflation swap forwards, closed last week at 1.310%, barely higher from where they were one month earlier at 1.304%, but still significantly above the yearly low set on June 17 at 1.141%. July ECB Meeting on ThursdayThe aforementioned factors – the sluggish growth conditions, the rebound in inflation expectations back to unimpressive levels – has markets toying with the notion that the ECB's Governing Council could cut interest rates at the July ECB meeting. Speculation has increased in recent weeks following ECB President Draghi's speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal in late-June, which immediately spilled over into a weaker Euro. But this is not a situation like we've experienced in recent months where rates markets have been overwhelmingly in favor of rate cuts well in advance of moves by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (and soon, the Federal Reserve). According to separate Bloomberg News and Reuters surveys of economists, the ECB will not move on any of its key interest rates this week – the main rate, the marginal lending facility, or the deposit facility rate. Yet a look at market pricing as derived from Eurozone overnight index swaps suggests otherwise: European Central Bank Interest Rate Expectations (July 21, 2019)
According to overnight index swaps, there is a 51% chance that the ECB will cut rates by 10-bps this week. This is not exactly convincing, overwhelming evidence; indeed, this strategist prefers to wait until markets price in at least a 55% chance before we can begin to make an interest rate forecast call with any conviction. But with markets essentially predicting a coin flip's chance of a rate cut – if we're using implied probabilities as a proxy for the portion of the market correctly positioned for the July ECB meeting – then approximately half of all market participants will have to readjust their positioning come Thursday. The Euro appears destined for significant volatility in the second half of the week. US-China Trade War Talks, Brexit Latest, and Q2'19 US GDP on TapBeyond the July ECB meeting, there are several items on the calendar that will drive volatility in EUR-crosses and beyond. Any movement in the US-China trade war talks has implications on Fed rate cut pricing, which in turn means EUR/USD will remain sensitive to any news coming from US President Donald Trump's twitter feed. Similarly, EUR/USD's sensitivity to data will stay high through Friday with the release of the initial Q2'19 US GDP reading. Elsewhere, with the Tory party leadership election contest wrapping up this week, the latest Brexit developments and initial steps taken by the new UK prime minister should keep EUR/GBP traders on edge. Net-Short Euro Positioning Subsides, But Euro Doesn't Rally
Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC's COT report for the week ended July 16, speculators dramatically decreased their net-short Euro positions from 35.9K to 31.4K contracts. The futures market is now the least net-short is has been since September 2018. It is curious that EUR/USD has not traded higher despite net-short Euro positioning decreasing: from July 19, 2018 to July 9, 2019, the correlation between the EUR/USD spot rate and Euro net-short positioning was 0.85; including the most recent week's data, the correlation drops to 0.82. Unfortunately, given that the July ECB meeting will take place after the Tuesday reporting period, the next CFTC COT report will not capture any significant shifts around this week's most significant event. FX TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
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