Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- Gold Price Pressing Resistance, Chart Set-Up Remains Positive
- EURGBP Technical Outlook Points to Lower Prices
- Waning US Crude Inventories to Keep Oil Prices Afloat
- US-China Trade War Thaw Hopes Boost APAC Stocks
- Dollar Rallies After IMF’s Growth Upgrade, Pound Steadfast After New PM Announced
- US Dollar Shrugs Rate Cut Bets After IMF Publishes Gloomy Outlook
- Japanese Yen Faces USDJPY Bulls’ Strenuous Base Building Efforts
- USDCAD Rate May Rise Further After Monthly Opening Range Break
- USD, JPY Could Rise as IMF Global GDP Outlook Gets Cut Again
- Dow Jones Earnings to Offer Insight on Global Growth & Trade Wars
| Gold Price Pressing Resistance, Chart Set-Up Remains Positive Posted: 24 Jul 2019 02:03 AM PDT Hits: 8 Gold (XAU) Price, Analysis and Chart
Q3 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities Gold Remains Pointed to The UpsideThe technical set-up for gold remains positive and a re-test of last week's multi-year high ($1,453/oz.) is expected in the short- to medium-term. A robust US dollar is currently weighing on the price of gold, despite an expected 0.25% Fed rate cut expected next week, the first of three cuts expected this year. A weaker US dollar – via lower interest rates – should see gold push higherand set new 2019 highs. Ongoing political tensions between the UK and Iran and the trade war between the US and China will also give the precious metal a bid, while any breakdown in equity valuations will push gold even higher. Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Fed Drives Next Leg Higher The daily gold chart shows that the pennant formation was broken to the upside before the price moved lower. The uptrend line remains intact – currently around $1,411/oz. – and only a break and close below here will invalidate the short-term positive outlook for the precious metal. A break below here should see strong support at $1,400/oz. To the upside, $1,439/oz. before a re-test of $1,453/oz. Gold Price Daily Chart (October 2018 – July 24, 2019)IG Client Sentiment data show that 71.0% of retail traders are net-long of gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias. How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio: Strategies and Tips Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EURGBP Technical Outlook Points to Lower Prices Posted: 24 Jul 2019 01:22 AM PDT Hits: 7 Last week, EURGBP posted a reversal candle on the weekly time-frame at resistance arriving by way of a pair of varying angled trend-lines and highs created last year. Furthering along a weakening technical backdrop was the breaking of the channel extending higher from late May until late last week. And adding yet another layer to the short set-up is the head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern very near triggering this morning. A 4-hr closing candlestick below 8954 is seen as confirmation of the pattern. The height of the H&S points to a measured move target of around 8860, however; the type of grinding channel that was formed from late May are often wiped out once the structure is broken. This implies a potential move down to around the 8800-mark. Along the way towards the eventual target, support I'm watching comes in around 8920 and 8872. Should the trade trigger (doing so right now), the invalidation point is above the right shoulder high of 9005. Trading Forecasts and Educational Guides for traders of all experience levels can be found on the DailyFX Trading Guides page. EURGBP Weekly Chart (reversals at resistance)EURGBP 4-hr Chart (channel broken, H&S about to trigger)
***Updates will be provided on these ideas and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held at 9 GMT on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series. Resources for Forex & CFD TradersWhether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Waning US Crude Inventories to Keep Oil Prices Afloat Posted: 24 Jul 2019 12:11 AM PDT Hits: 7 Oil Price Talking PointsThe price of oil extends the advance from the July-low ($54.72) even though the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowers its growth forecast for the world economy, and crude prices may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this month as US inventories are expected to contract for the sixth consecutive week. Waning US Crude Inventories to Keep Crude Oil Prices AfloatOil prices may stage a larger rebound despite the turmoil surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a key hub for crude shipments, should data prints coming out of the US economy indicate healthy demand. Updates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) are anticipated to show crude inventories narrowing 4261K after contracting 3116K in the week ending July 12, and waning stockpiles may keep oil prices afloat as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies pledge to regulate the energy market throughout 2019. However, another batch of mixed data prints may drag on crude prices as the US and China, the two largest consumers of oil, struggle to reach a trade agreement, and OPEC and its allies may take additional steps to balance the energy market as the shift in trade policy curbs the outlook for global growth. It remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will establish a lower rate of production as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) states that "in 2019, the global oil demand growth forecast remains at 1.14 mb/d, with expectations for global oil demand to reach 99.87 mb/d." As a result, the group may stick to the sidelines ahead of the next meeting on December 5 as "in 2020, the initial forecast indicates growth of around 1.14 mb/d y-o-y, as global oil demand is anticipated to surpass the 100 mb/d threshold on an annual basis, to average 101.01 mb/d for the year." The projections suggest OPEC and its allies are in no rush to curb supply, and the weakening outlook for the world economy may keep oil prices under pressure amid little signed of an imminent US-China trade deal. With that said, oil prices remain at risk of facing a bear market over the coming months especially as a 'death-cross' formation takes shape in July. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups. Crude Oil Daily Chart
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Oil Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-24 07:00:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| US-China Trade War Thaw Hopes Boost APAC Stocks Posted: 23 Jul 2019 10:14 PM PDT Hits: 9 APAC Stocks, Talking Points:
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of your favorite currency's chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page Wednesday provided Asia Pacific equity investors with a generally positive backdrop and most indexes were duly higher. A Bloomberg report released in US houses the day before said that senior US officials would be flying back to Beijing early next week for face-to-face trade talks with their Chinese opposite numbers. This news took Wall Street back close to record highs. Asian stocks also benefitted from enduring hopes that monetary policy could be loosened in both the Eurozone and US. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates on July 31. The European Central Bank meets earlier, on Thursday and, while loosening is not forecast, it may well flag up the strong likelihood of more accommodation ahead. Given both those stories it should be no surprise that Asian stocks were higher. The Nikkei added 0.5%, Shanghai 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.9%. South Korea's Kospi remained under a bit of pressure however. Apple supplier LG Display slipped on news of a larger-than expected second quarter operating loss. The company also said it wanted to broaden its own supplier base in view of ongoing trade tensions with Japan. Banks Boost ASXAustralia's ASX 200 was up 0.7% as its close loomed. Banks led the way with solid gains for the 'big four.' Some gold miners did less well despite a rather constructive global gold price picture. St. Barbara's shares fell with investors possibly disappointed with output guidance. Regis Resources also slipped again, with broker downgrades likely to blame. European Currencies Feel the HeatThe Euro and British Pound were both lower as markets eyed both the upcoming ECB meeting and the election of Boris Johnson as leader of the governing Conservative Party. Johnson campaigned in staunch rhetoric, promising to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union by October 31 'come what may.' It remains to be seen how this will be achieved given the mired Parliamentary mathematics. GBPUSD remains in a clearly accelerating daily chart downtrend, but the advent of 'Boris' was very well flagged and the markets have not so far been minded to take the pair back down as far as its post-Brexit-referendum lows. They are quite close thoughnow, in the $1.23 region. The rest of the session offers a plethora of Purchasing Managers Index data from across Europe and the US, but they may need to seriously diverge from expectations to have much impact against the current busy backdrop. Resources for TradersWhether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Dollar Rallies After IMF’s Growth Upgrade, Pound Steadfast After New PM Announced Posted: 23 Jul 2019 09:01 PM PDT Hits: 13 Growth Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Growth Was the Baseline Theme for the Week, But Tuesday Updates Were UnexpectedBetween the United States’ official 2Q GDP release due Friday and the monthly activity surveys on tap for the session ahead, the health of the global economy was always a likely key fundamental theme for the markets this week. However, I hadn’t expected the market’s interests in this undercurrent of systemic value to generate reaction just yet. Given the key events were further ahead, Tuesday would either find speculators waiting impatiently for the capable catalysts to cross the wires or perhaps find their motivation through alternative means in equally-important fundamental avenues with unscheduled developments. We were met with unscheduled but market-moving updates, just in the same arena as our prevailing focus. The IMF updated its global growth forecast this past session with an unmistakable cloud hanging over its sentiment. It had downgraded its 2019 and 2020 global forecasts by 0.1 percent points which was no doubt helped along by a 0.9 percent point drop in expected trade to 2.5 percent growth amid trade wars. Such a theme was clearly on the group’s mind given that they suggested most of the pain was “self inflicted.” Where the economic outlook is troubled, the updates were not all bad news. An unexpected candidate for silver lining, the United States received an upgrade to its own economic outlook to the tune of 0.3 percentage points bringing the forecast to 1.6 percent this year. That is an interesting turn of events as much of the pressure via trade wars that so ravages global expectations has originated from the world’s largest economy. Adding a little more traction to the growth implications for the US specifically, the news that the White House and Congressional leaders had agreed to lift on the US deficit ceiling for two years replaces seemingly constant risk of technical default and auto spending cuts with possibly more than $300 billion in spending – a significant boost in short-term growth. If the world’s largest economy is receiving an economic upgrade, it comes as little surprise that the US indices (S&P 500, Dow) would earn a jump higher on the day. Yet, it was the Dollar that would truly draw the value out of this news as the local fundamental boost drew greater contrast to the rest-of-world downgrade. Indeed, the Dollar rallied after the news sunk in. For EURUSD, a short-term break of support was pronounced, but its swing into its multi-month range does little to inspire confidence of a secured trend. AUDUSD’s disarming its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern break however looks to be more certain. While this past session’s jolt could prove the opening move of a lasting rally for the Greenback, that would depend heavily on the reinforcement from unrelated event risk due ahead. The July PMIs and 2Q GDP are growth updates with more weight while next week’s FOMC decision is a more dominant influence altogether. Chart of EURUSD (4-Hour)
Extending the Fundamental Drum Beat Through July PMIs and US EarningsAs we head into Wednesday trade, the attention will remain on global economic health. The direct update on this theme will come via the current month’s PMI readings. The activity overview through manufacturing, services and composite surveys is due for Japan, Australia, the Eurozone and United States. That is about as comprehensive as data can be on signaling the health across the globe. A favorable update could ease fears of impending recession, but it is hardly going to completely reverse the course we have found ourselves these past years of moderating activity. Further, the markets have not established any meaningful discount assigned to fear of tepid activity, so there isn’t even a strong opportunity of reversing a short-term discount. Generally weak data would stand to carry the greatest impact given the IMF’s update this past session and the general ambivalence in speculative excess in the risk spectrum. Another outlet for growth expectations to follow is the session of earnings we are due ahead. The US business sector has not exactly championed the charge to record high across the US indices, but it hasn’t tripped up the optimism. That can always change – and it would carry far more weight if such erosion occurred in a thematic way. On general insight for US growth, I will watch Caterpillar’s update. The large machinery manufacturer is a blue chip closely associated with general economic health. Beyond that though we are also due insight on firms that are closely tied to trade wars. Boeing and Ford in particular are distinctly tied to the strained diplomatic and economic relationships with Europe. As for sheer speculative impact, the largest market-cap tech companies that compose the favorite FAANG grouping is due to report the numbers for is next member after the bell Wednesday: Facebook. Chart of a FAANG Index Overlaid with Facebook (Daily)
No Surprises as Boris Johnson Becomes New UK Prime Minister, But No Sterling Movement?The most prominent scheduled event this past session would also deliver the most disappointing response from its respective currency. The Conservative Party announced its next leader would be bombastic Boris Johnson. This was ultimately the anticipated outcome with the market heavily leaning towards his besting Hunt. Meeting expectations is naturally the outcome that requires the least amount of adjustment from market participants as they naturally find themselves accurately positioned for the outcome. That said, Johnson’s taking over as Prime Minister significantly increases the uncertainty for the UK and the Sterling moving forward. He campaigned on the vow to keep a ‘no-deal’ Brexit a contending scenario if the EU would not budge on further accommodation for the United Kingdom in the divorce. This week, the new EU President made clear that they could delay the deadline for a deal but they would not be changing the agreement hashed out with Theresa May. Chart of GBPUSD (Daily)
Moving forward, the markets may appreciate the uncertainty facing the UK economy and financial system, but they are certainly not pricing that risk appropriately. Merely facing such a significant uncertainty is taking its economic toll. This past session, business sentiment in the country measured by the CBI registered a sharp drop from the already negative -13 of June to a troubling -32 in the most recent month. From the market’s perspective, there is a profound lack of preparation in the form of more severe financial fallout. That is clear in the FTSE 100’s climb alongside its global counterparts this past session and the unreasonably low Pound implied volatility index from the CME. Beware markets that are seem aloof of obvious volatility threats. Chart of EURGBP and the CME's Pound Volatility Index (Daily)
Euro Pulled Into Key Event Risk Gravity While Aussie Operates Free of AnticipationAnother currency to keep a close eye on moving forward is the Euro. The upcoming session offers up the July PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France. Though valuable growth measures, my interest in this data run is primarily for its influence over sentiment heading into Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision. The group isn’t expected to change policy this go around, but there is heavy speculation that they intend to signal their intent to make a significant dovish change at a subsequent policy gathering. What form that takes is still unclear – as is the explicit time frame (though I doubt they will truly clarify that point). If the PMIs are particularly troubled, the implication would be an accelerated shift towards a dovish regime. There is significant potency in the rate decision, but marking stride before that event is improbable. Consider that when you make plans for any Euro pairs – like EURUSD. If you are looking for a currency that isn’t holding its breadth for the next scheduled event risk, the Swiss Franc is certainly a viable candidate. With the EURCHF dropping to fresh multi-year lows, the probability that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has to take action only increases. When they act and how effective they will be remains to be seen, but the pressure is there without a scheduled pressure relief. If you want something not so severe in its anticipation, keep tabs on the Australian Dollar. As discussed last week, the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern from AUDUSD failed to transition from reversal and breakout to true trend. Instead, a host of Aussie crosses are holding up their AUD-resistance. I am partial to the likes of EURAUD, AUDJPY and GBPAUD. Chart of EURAUD (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-24 01:46:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| US Dollar Shrugs Rate Cut Bets After IMF Publishes Gloomy Outlook Posted: 23 Jul 2019 08:19 PM PDT Hits: 2 IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, LEVERAGED DEBT MARKET, US DOLLAR, TRADE WARS – TALKING POINTS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! At the end of Tuesday's trading session – as expected – the US Dollar emerged triumphant after the IMF published its updated world economic outlook and spooked financial markets. Global GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were once again downgraded to now showing an expected growth rate of 3.2 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. In the report, five fundamental themes stood out as the primary culprits behind the slowdown. Fundamentals First
TRADE WARSPredictably, trade tensions were highlighted as one of the primary factors hampering global growth. The US-China and EU-UK trade disputes continue to sap business confidence have subsequently created headwinds for investment and significantly contributed to the overall deceleration in economic activity. The report made it a point for countries to "not use tariffs to target bilateral trade balances or as a substitute for dialogue" AUDUSD, EURUSD, NZDUSD Downtrend Amplified by Trade War
Furthermore, the prospective disruption of technology supply chains – largely in Asia – has also stifled investment and contributed to the regional slowdown. Sino-US tensions continue to remain high in light of the ongoing controversy surrounding Huawei that is compounded by the growing fear that China may leverage a ban on rare-mineral exports to the US if trade negotiations deteriorate. GEOPOLITICAL RISKSAs the global economy slows down, the market impact of geopolitical risks is amplified because the buffer of economic prosperity that is typically used to stave off ideological radicalism has been eroded. "Prolonged" Brexit negotiations have sapped sentiment and led to capital outflow from European markets and led to the central banks in the UK and Sweden to alter their monetary policy trajectory as a result of the uncertainty. Crude Oil Prices Rise on Supply-Disruption Fears
The report cited an escalation in geopolitical tensions – notably in the Persian Gulf – as a contributing factor to uncertainty and a major driver behind volatility in crude oil prices. EU-US ties continue to be strained by trade tensions and divergence in policy towards Iran. Furthermore, political contagion from the developed economies is now spreading to emerging markets and further souring risk appetite. EMERGING MARKET RISKSEmerging market (EM) trade tensions – e.g. Brazil-India, Brazil-Iran, India-Pakistan, India-US etc – are stressing frontier economies that are already under duress from slowing global demand. Economic activity in commodity-linked countries has been disappointing and are also the most vulnerable to oscillations in global sentiment. Core inflation has remained broadly subdued in emerging market economies in large part due to souring sentiment from trade tensions and capital outflow. Furthermore, EMs were dealt another blow after the publication of China GDP showed a year-on-year growth rate of 6.2 percent, the slowest expansion in almost three decades. Emerging markets now also have to contend with rising borrowing costs. BORROWING COSTSIn addition to unwinding the balance sheet, the Fed's rate hike rampage in 2018 significantly tightened borrowing costs around the world. According to the Bank of International Settlements, over 80 percent of all global transactions are conducted in the US Dollar. Furthermore, emerging markets that have their debt denominated in the US Dollar now have to pay more in real terms, making the risk greater and yields higher. This trend may be amplified by an economic slowdown as the country's ability to service its debt becomes more uncertain, especially since many emerging market economies rely on exporting cycle-sensitive commodities. As such, a downward spiral of doubt and higher yields may ensue and result in wider CDS spreads and could leave financial institutions with exposure to these markets at risk. DEBT RISKSIn the report, the IMF writes "A risk-off episode, depending on its severity, could expose financial vulnerabilities accumulated during years of low interest rates as highly leveraged borrowers find it difficult to roll over their debt". Investors have also begun to securitize loans with poor underwriting standards into collateralized loan obligations that threaten to create a $1 trillion crater in the financial system. Tick, Tick, Tick…
The report also highlighted that after a decade of ultra-low rates and accommodative monetary policy, central banks are in a precarious position in that their ability to counter a downturn is comparatively more constrained. As a result, "growth could be persistently lower for any given adverse shock". Many central banks have reversed their rate hike cycles and are now leaning toward looser credit conditions as the outlooks dims. WILL THE US DOLLAR RISE DURING FINANCIAL TURMOIL? Despite the market pricing in dovish policy moves by the Fed, the US Dollar has continued to climb higher. Typically, if a central bank hints at lowering rates, the currency involved would frequently fall against its counterparts. But the Greenback is not like other currencies. As the world reserve currency, during times of risk aversion – even if the uncertainty originates in the US – investors turn to USD in times of uncertainty. During periods of risk aversion, traders divert their capital away from high-yield assets and instead place a premium on liquidity. The US Dollar and Treasuries are viewed as an island in a stormy sea of volatility. The greenback is liquid enough to be able to endure a high influx of capital without significant price moves. This might explain why the US Dollar has continue to rise despite mounting Fed rate cut expectations. Why is the US Dollar Rising as Fed Rate Cut Bets Continue to Build?
FX TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter
Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Japanese Yen Faces USDJPY Bulls’ Strenuous Base Building Efforts Posted: 23 Jul 2019 07:03 PM PDT Hits: 8 Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:
Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major Japanese economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We'd love to have you along. It seems the Japanese Yen must still contend with USDJPY bulls' concentrated efforts to build a base. The pair has traded this week back up into its previous range, the second such bounce since mid-June. That range comes in between 107.80 and 108.97. It looks as though the market is reluctant to long relinquish the area around 108.44. That level is the important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise up from the lows of March 2018 to the peaks of October the same year. Neither has been exceeded since. If it does, the next retracement level would come into sharp focus. Probably not coincidentally that comes in at this year's low so far, June 25's intraday weak point of 106.77. Currently the Dollar looks pretty solid, however, and there seems no pressing reason to suppose that the year's low will face an especially stern test any time soon. Upside progress may be a different matter however, for at least as long as the previous significant peak of 108.97 remains so far above the market. If it can be topped, then the sharp fall from late May's highs will still need to be reclaimed. This is not impossible for as long as the current range holds but looks like a big ask in the near-term. The Australian Dollar remains even more obviously range-bound against the Japanese unit, with the broad band which has endured for all of this month still corralling the market.
The daily candlestick chart is chock-full of the narrow daily ranges which can mean a high degree of collective indecision among investors, but it's also notable that the cross has spent most of the last couple of weeks testing the upper half of this band. Much will probably depend on USDJPY's fate but for the moment this range looks to be all short-term traders have to play with. Japanese Yen Resources for TradersWhether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| USDCAD Rate May Rise Further After Monthly Opening Range Break Posted: 23 Jul 2019 05:05 PM PDT Hits: 7 Canadian Dollar Talking PointsUSDCAD takes out the opening range for July, with the exchange rate climbing to a fresh monthly high (1.3164), and current market conditions may keep Dollar Loonie afloat as US lawmakers take steps to avoid the debt ceiling. USDCAD Rate Risks Larger Rebound After Clearing Monthly Opening RangeUSDCAD breaks out of a narrow range as Congress reaches a two-year budget deal, and the narrowing threat of a government shutdown may fuel a larger rebound ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 31 as it boosts bets for an "insurance cut." Recent remarks from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggest the central bank will insulate the US economy from the shift in trade policy, with Fed Fund futures still highlighting a 100% probability for at least a 25bp rate cut as "participants generally agreed that downside risks to the outlook for economic activity had risen materially since their May meeting, particularly those associated with ongoing trade negotiations and slowing economic growth abroad." In turn, the Fed may continue to change its tune over the coming months amid limited signs of an imminent US-China trade deal, and the central bank may come under increased pressure to reverse the four rate hikes from 2018 especially as President Donald Trump tweets that "it is far more costly for the Federal Reserve to cut deeper if the economy actually does, in the future, turn down." However, it remains to be seen if Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. will establish a rate easing cycle as there appears to be dissenting views within the FOMC, and the central bank may ultimately revert back to a wait-and-see approach as Fed officials "expect growth in the United States to remain solid, labor markets to stay strong, and inflation to move back up and run near 2 percent." As a result, the Fed's forward guidance may largely influence the broader outlook for USDCAD especially as the Bank of Canada (BoC) sticks to the sidelines, with USDCAD at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior if the FOMC shows a greater willingness to implement lower interest rates throughout the second half of 2019. Nevertheless, recent price action warns of a larger rebound as USDCAD breaks out of the monthly opening range, with the recent series of higher highs and lows in the exchange rate bringing the topside targets on the radar. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups. USD/CAD Rate Daily Chart
Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-24 00:00:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| USD, JPY Could Rise as IMF Global GDP Outlook Gets Cut Again Posted: 23 Jul 2019 04:29 PM PDT Hits: 11 IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REPORT REVEALS GDP GROWTH STILL SLUGGISH
Another IMF World Economic Outlook Report, another downgrade to global GDP growth. The IMF revealed a cut to its global GDP forecasts once again as the trend of slower economic activity continues to bite. Projections for 2019 and 2020 were both lowered by 0.1%, down to 3.2% and 3.5% respectively. The July 2019 update listed sluggish GDP growth across the board with economic activity being weighed down broadly by lingering risks surrounding trade policy uncertainty, Brexit and geopolitical tensions. World trade volume for 2019 is also expected keep drifting lower with the 2019 forecast cut by another 0.9% to 2.5%. IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK JULY 2019 GDP PROJECTIONSYet, consumer confidence has held firm which could be largely attributable to resilience in performance of the services sector and robust employment growth. Notable changes in advanced economies detailed upward revisions for US and Eurozone GDP growth estimates to the tune of 0.3%. On the contrary, Asia is expected to grow 6.2% this year which is 0.1% lower than previously estimated with the economic outlook downgrade driven primarily by the adverse impact of tariffs on trade and investment. Also, Latin America is expected to see the largest slowdown in GDP growth with the region now expected to show 0.6% growth this year and is 0.8% lower than the IMF's prior 2019 GDP forecast. SAFE-HAVEN CURRENCIES US DOLLAR & JAPANESE YEN COULD BENEFITThe IMF's July 2019 World Economic Outlook report also detailed that risks to the forecast are mainly to the downside with the estimated rebound in growth later this year and into 2020 is underscored as "precarious," adding that "downside risks have intensified" since the April 2019 report. Furthermore, the IMF stated that "business sentiment and surveys of purchasing managers for example point to a weak outlook for manufacturing and trade, with particularly pessimistic views on new orders." That said, in consideration of slower GDP growth forecasts, lingering uncertainty and heightened risks, there could be potential for safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen to rise if market sentiment takes a turn for the worse. FOREX TRADING RESOURCES
— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Dow Jones Earnings to Offer Insight on Global Growth & Trade Wars Posted: 23 Jul 2019 02:40 PM PDT Hits: 9 Dow Jones Forecast:Dow Jones Forecast: Index to Take Cues from Major Earnings ReportsThe Dow Jones climbed near record highs on Tuesday after it was revealed US negotiators would travel to Beijing next week in an attempt to resolve the ongoing trade dispute. The resultant optimism bolstered the Average following a string of mixed earnings from companies like Coca Cola (KO) and Lockheed Martin (LMT). As Wednesday approaches, Caterpillar, UPS and Boeing will take position as the Industrial Average's key corporate influencers. Caterpillar to Offer Insight on Global GrowthCaterpillar is often viewed as a bellwether for the global economy as investors view heavy machinery demand as an indicator for construction activity and therefore growth. With that said, CAT warned last quarter of waning demand in China – which aligned with slowing growth in the country – alongside increased competition in Asia. The headwinds conjoined to pressure the machinery manufacturer lower and shares have made little progress in the quarter since. Caterpillar (CAT) Stock Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (October 2018 – July 2019) (Chart 1)
Implied volatility for CAT shares is expectedly heightened ahead of earnings, with options pricing suggesting a 4.6% move in either direction. Coincidentally, the implied price range encompasses two key technical levels at each end of the range. To the topside, a descending trendline from January 2018 will look to keep a lid on CAT shares around $143 – where it collides with a nearby Fibonacci level. Conversely, Caterpillar shares will look to the 200-day moving average around $132 for support if earnings seriously disappoint. UPS & Boeing Earnings to Highlight Trade WarsWhile Caterpillar will offer useful information on the state of global growth, United Parcel Service (UPS) and Boeing (BA) are likely to deliver updates on the state of another headwind facing equity markets – trade wars. That said, each stock faces a different challenge under the umbrella of the larger theme. UPSThe revenue of United Parcel Service is largely tied to global shipping and package delivery trends. Thus, lower economic activity due to slowing growth or widespread trade conflicts will look to weigh on the company's profit. UPS leadership will likely offer commentary on both these themes and their respective outlooks. UPS Stock Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2018 – July 2019) (Chart 2)
Boeing & Airbus Debacle ContinuesDow Jones heavyweight – Boeing (BA) – faces a much more specific trade war threat as the EU and United States continue to lobby for their respective airplane manufacturer at the WTO. An exchange of tariffs and counter-tariffs have seen two of the world's largest economies trapped in a trade conflict spanning months. After facing another round of potential tariffs from the United States, the European Union has expressed a willingness to respond by placing levies on goods with close ties to President Trump's base. For more information on this conflict, follow @PeterHanksFXon Twitter. Alongside the issues with the European Union, Boeing continues to grasp for an answer to the issue in its 737 Max models which resulted in two fatal crashes. Just last week, Boeing announced a $4.9 billion payment associated with the grounding of the model. As long as the 737 Max remains unfit for flight, airlines will seek compensation for lost profit. In summation, BA faces a series of headwinds and as the largest member of the Dow Jones, could put significant pressure on the Index if results disappoint. Boeing (BA) Stock Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – July) (Chart 3)
Perhaps to the chagrin of bears, Boeing stock enjoys a nearby confluence of support in the $365 area marked by the 200-day moving average and ascending trendline from June. While fundamental themes will remain the primary drivers behind the stock's price action, technical levels will look to exert any influence they can muster in an attempt to stall price in either direction. As these three large-cap stocks look to flex their muscle over the broader Dow Jones Index, check out the weekly technical forecast for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 30 for important price levels. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more:Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
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