Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- DAX in Bull Market, ECB Stimulus is Coming, However, Beware of Volatility Spikes
- EURUSD Price Outlook Poor on Slow Growth, Lagarde Nomination
- Risk of Bearish Breakdown on Flash Crash Trendline Break
- Gold Price Gains May Be Capped as US Dollar Haven Demand Returns
- Opportunity for S&P 500 Rally to Record, Dollar Recovery Facing Liquidity Wall
- USDCAD May Be Major Most Capable of Overcoming Holiday Trade
- Is Kiwi Dollar Ready to Turn Lower?
- AUDUSD Wobbled on China PMI Data as Global Growth Concerns Mount
- EURUSD Rate Pullback Stalls Despite Dovish ECB Forward Guidance
- GBPUSD Eyes Support on BoE Governor Mark Carney, AUDUSD May Rise
| DAX in Bull Market, ECB Stimulus is Coming, However, Beware of Volatility Spikes Posted: 03 Jul 2019 04:24 AM PDT Hits: 8 Equity Analysis and News
DAX Posts Best Month Since Q1 2018Expectations for looser monetary policy from the likes of the Fed and ECB, alongside a ceasefire in the US-China trade war has seen the DAX recoup its losses from May, posting its best monthly performance since the beginning of 2018. On a stock specific basis, the best individual performers within the DAX had been Bayer, which saw activist investors Elliot Advisors disclose a EUR 1.1bln stake, while the company had also benefitted from reports that the company may be open to a quicker than expected settlement over glyphosate cases. ECB Preparing to Deliver Fresh StimulusIn response to the plummet in market-based inflation expectations, ECB President Draghi stated at the Sintra Forum that unless economic conditions in the Euro-Area had improved, the central bank would be open to fresh policy stimulus via rate cuts and a restarting of QE. Consequently, Draghi had seemingly placed a low bar in which the ECB will ease monetary policy further, thus the DAX is back in a bull market (rising over 20% since December 2018 lows). Alongside this, eyes will be on the July meeting in which the ECB could lay the foundations for a round of fresh easing at the September meeting. Of note, money markets are fully pricing at least a 10bps rate cut in the depo rate at the September meeting. Source: Thomson Reuters. ECB rate expectations Beware of Low Equity Market VolatilityAs the DAX has continued to grind higher, the DAX implied volatility index (VDAX) has edged lower, hovering around very subdued levels once again. While seasonal factors, such as moving into the summer lull can be partly to blame here, there is a risk of potential complacency, which sees traders underpricing risks in the form of slowing global growth. As such, eyes will be on the lookout for a spike in the volatility index, which could spark a pullback in the index.
DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Oct 2017 – Jul 2019)
RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| EURUSD Price Outlook Poor on Slow Growth, Lagarde Nomination Posted: 03 Jul 2019 03:12 AM PDT Hits: 9 EUR price, news and analysis:
EURUSD price outlook: further weakness possibleThe final Eurozone composite purchasing managers index (PMI) edged ahead to 52.2 in June, better than both the "flash" reading of 52.1 and May's final 51.8. However, that still suggests minimal economic growth in the bloc. "The June PMI surveys indicate that the pace of Eurozone economic growth picked up at the end of the second quarter, though it would be wrong to get overly excited by the upturn," commented Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the data. "The survey is indicative of GDP merely rising by just over 0.2% in the second quarter, and a deterioration of business expectations for the year ahead to one of the lowest seen for over four years suggests the business mood remains sombre. Downside risks to the outlook prevail amid trade war worries, rising geopolitical uncertainty and slowing global economic growth," he added. The PMI data in full are shown in the following table from the DailyFX calendar: Lagarde seen as monetary policy doveMeanwhile Christine Lagarde, who has been nominated for the position of President of the European Central Bank (ECB), will likely continue with the dovish policy stance of current chief Mario Draghi. Subject to approval by the European Parliament, Lagarde will succeed Draghi when his term expires at the end of October. Lagarde, a French lawyer and politician, is currently Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and was previously French Finance Minister. She is not an economist or monetary policy expert. Taken together, Lagarde's nomination and the PMI data suggest that EURUSD could continue to fall short-term within the upward-sloping channel on the charts. EURUSD Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (June 7 – July 3, 2019)
Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image) For the Euro outlook longer-term, check out our latest free forecasts for Q3 here Meanwhile, the prospect of a trade war between the US and the EU over aircraft subsidies could also damage Euro sentiment, although EURUSD is likely to be driven later this week by the US non-farm payrolls data. Resources to help you trade the forex markets:Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you: — Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Risk of Bearish Breakdown on Flash Crash Trendline Break Posted: 03 Jul 2019 02:34 AM PDT Hits: 8 GBPUSD Analysis and News
Check out our Fundamental and Technical Q3 forecast guide for GBPUSD GBP Remains Soft as Service Sector Nears StagnationGBP remains on defensive across the board with GBPUSD hovering around session lows, while EURGBP continues to edge higher as UK services PMI dropped to 50.2, missing expectations of 51. Consequently, the composite figure fell into contractionary territory at 49.7, which marked the lowest reading since the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum. In turn, IHS Markit stated that the combined PMI surveys indicate that Q2 growth could show a contraction of 0.1%. As such, this is likely to confirm BoE Governor Carney's recent comments that Q2 growth is set to be considerably weaker. Thus, the outlook for the Pound remains tilted on the downside, particularly with the Bank of England providing a more cautious outlook. Of note, the next GDP release is scheduled for July 10th, however, keep in mind that this is a monthly reading for May. GBPUSD Outlook: Flash Crash Trendline Holds for NowAs political and economic risks keep the Pound on the backfoot, the trendline stemming from the Sterling October 2016 flash has continued to support the currency. However, with downside pressures continuing to mount, eyes are on for a break below, which could exacerbate further losses in the pair with a move towards the 1.25 handle possible, before the YTD low (1.2435) GBPUSD PRICE CHART:DAILY TIME FRAME (Sep 18 – Jul 19) What Does Positioning Tell us About the Direction in GBPUSD? Data shows 76.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.22 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29202; price has moved 2.6% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jun 21 when GBPUSD traded near 1.27426. The number of traders net-long is 9.3% higher than yesterday and 14.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.1% lower than yesterday and 1.9% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias. — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Gold Price Gains May Be Capped as US Dollar Haven Demand Returns Posted: 03 Jul 2019 01:16 AM PDT Hits: 14 CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices shot higher while bond yields dropped as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spooked the markets, saying the outlook for economic growth is "considerably weaker" in the second quarter as global trade tensions increase downside risks. That bolstered the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal. The risk-off jolt also weighed on cycle-sensitive crude oil prices. A broader market-wide selloff did not materialize however, with stocks recovering into the session close after a brief downswing as Mr Carney's ominous remarks fueled Fed rate cut speculation once again. The priced-in 2019 policy path implied in Fed Funds futures tellingly tilted toward the dovish side of the spectrum as he spoke. GOLD MAY NOT CAPITALIZE AS ISM DATA STOKES GLOBAL SLOWDOWN FEARSLooking ahead, the US services ISM survey takes top billing. It is expected to show that growth in the economy's largest sector slowed in June after brief rebound from two-year lows in the prior month. US data flow has tended to undershoot baseline forecasts since the beginning of the year, warning that analysts' models are overly rosy and setting the stage for a disappointing outcome. Tellingly, yesterday's rise in Fed stimulus bets did not translate into notable US Dollar weakness. That seems to endorse the idea that markets have already priced in about as much FOMC stimulus as can probably occur, allowing the Greenback to benefit from liquidity demand amid de-risking once again. This means that a soft ISM print that amplifies global slowdown fears might well drive it higher. Gold prices might have a hard time extending upward in this scenario as the benchmark currency's resilience undercuts the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. Still lower bond yields may limit downside progression all the same however. Crude oil prices may succumb to risk-off pressure in a more straightforward way, though EIA inventory data may limit losses if it echoes API reports of a 4.97-million-barrel drawdown last week. Get the latest crude oil and gold forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices rebounded from support guiding them higher since late May, scoring the largest one-day rise in three years. Resistance marked by the confluence of the August 2013 high the underside of support-turned-resistance set from December 2016 at 1433.85 is back under pressure, with a daily close above that opening the door to probe past the $1500/oz figure. Trend line support is now at 1388.02. A move below that eyes a dense support bloc running through 1346.75. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices turned lower as expected, breaking support at 57.24. Sellers now aim to challenge the 54.55-55.37 area, with a further breach of that targeting the 50.31-51.33 zone. Alternatively, a turn back above resistance at 57.88 opens the door for a retest of the 60.39-95 region.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Opportunity for S&P 500 Rally to Record, Dollar Recovery Facing Liquidity Wall Posted: 03 Jul 2019 12:03 AM PDT Hits: 10 Dollar Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Hitting the Key Fundamental Themes Just Without PowerWe have seen considerable changes in the fundamental undercurrent of the financial system these past months. From a (perceived) Fed policy course reversal to the G-20’s (perceived) relief between the US and China on trade, and then the unmistakable reminder of economic trouble in PMI figures to start this week; there has been plenty to both tease speculation and stoke fear. We continue to take in meaningful updates on these systemic fronts, but the scope of the news doesn’t seem to match the restraint that is threatened by the liquidity drain on Thursday. We can already see the tempering effects of thinning market depth as we march inevitably towards the Independence Day holiday. The S&P 500 having started off this week with an incredible gap to a record high with Monday’s open has since lost all traction. Tuesday’s trading session would not overtake either the low or high of the previous session – what is considered an ‘inside day’. A similar cap to progress has shown through across global indices, emerging markets and the more deeply discounted Yen crosses (carry trade). Commodities and sovereign bond yields, which hold a greater deference to growth as a facet to sentiment, have reengaged their bearish course. Volatility measures in the meantime are dropping back towards multi-month lows even though their standard forecast period is 30 days. Chart of S&P 500 and VIX (Daily) In fundamental terms, the past session managed to tap the previously mentioned, top three themes. For trade wars, we haven’t seen any further developments between US and China, but Huawei’s founder has said President Trump’s decision to lift the ban on US companies selling products to the Chinese telecom would have little impact on its performance. Meanwhile, the US Trade Representative’s office published a list of $4 billion in additional possible tariffs against the EU – to add to April’s $21 billion – in the ongoing spat between Boeing and Airbus. For monetary policy, a top Fed hawk (Mester) urged holding off on hikes as they could cause imbalances if pursued to early; but she is definitely in the minority. Then there is GDP with measures like the NYC business activity forecast which hit a 10-year low Tuesday. Dollar Will Host Key Event Risk but Is Still Beholden to Liquidity RestraintsWith the US market’s offline for Thursday and government agencies similarly closed, the data that would normally fall on that day is either pushed forwards or backwards. Wednesday’s docket is unmistakably heavy. Trimming it down to the top three release on tap, number three is the ADP private payrolls report for June. This is a lead in to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls for the same month. This indicator itself however is not known to significant move the Dollar or capital markets. Second place goes to the May trade balance. This is not often a big market mover in and of itself, but the implications of trade wars and the connection to obviously flagging growth as well as motivation for the Fed to act are lines that are too readily drawn nowadays in the mainstream. Chart of Dollar Index and Rate Cuts Expected from Fed Through Fed Funds Futures (Daily)
Top event risk for Wednesday for the Greenback is the ISM non-manufacturing survey – essentially service sector activity. Much was made of the manufacturing equivalent to start the week, and rightfully so given how poor its release was. However, in terms of influence, the United States is far and away driven by its service-based economy. Despite the late hour of liquidity, if this particular reading were to offer a significant decline through the past month, it could raise fears of stalled growth and perhaps muster enough fear to override the natural lethargy that sets in around this time. If the market doesn’t cue up anything with extreme inference, the focus will then turn to anticipation for Friday’s run. While there are a few readings of merit, it is clearly the June employment report that should earn the market’s undivided attention. Given the assumptions of an impending rate cut from the Fed this month and the awareness of unflattering growth readings, this favorite indicator could present serious leverage either way. Volatility for Gold and Concentrated Event Risk Between USDCAD Deserve Proper ObservationAs we see most assets settle into a comfortable holiday rhythm, there are a select few assets that seem to be ignoring the siren call. One such market is gold’s exceptional volatility this week. The precious metal posted its sharpest single-day loss since November 2016 on Monday, to threaten the impressive bull run we’ve seen develop these past months. However, the retreat wouldn’t surpass a Fib and former resistance, instead using it as a spring board. What resulted was the biggest single-day rally since October 11th. There is certainly fundamental background to justify the general bull trend, but this recent swell of activity is likely volatility catering to more volatility. It will struggle to keep this tempo – but not necessarily bearing. Chart of Gold and Rate of Change (Daily)
In the FX markets, the pair with most provocative backdrop for volatility through the second half of this week is undoubtedly USDCAD. The technicals are themselves interesting. The drop we’ve witnessed these past weeks has built up remarkable steam and now spot is stretched significantly below the 200-day moving average with a confluence of support to be spotted around 1.3050/00. Today, we are looking at a range of updates, but the simultaneous release of US and Canadian trade statistics can draw considerable interest. That said, if we are looking to history of sheer market impact that would have to go to the tandem release of government jobs figures from both on Friday. We discuss all of this and more in today’s Trading Video. Chart of USDCAD with Its 200-Day Moving Average and the Disparity Index (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-03 03:38:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| USDCAD May Be Major Most Capable of Overcoming Holiday Trade Posted: 02 Jul 2019 08:57 PM PDT Hits: 10 USDCAD Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY along with the other major Dollar-based majors usingthe DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. If there is one principle consideration to account for as we navigate through the second half of the trading week, it would be liquidity. There is a known curb on market turnover in Thursday’s US market holiday – the Independence Day holiday or ‘Fourth of July’. While it is technically only the US exchanges that are offline that day, it represents a significant enough segment of the global speculative rank that it typically suppresses most efforts to generate sustained volatility or carry forward any meaningful trends. Yet, just because the Americans aren’t around doesn’t mean that the markets will simply hold inert in the face of meaningful – and particularly unexpected – developments. If we see headlines that dramatically alter the outlook for global growth, monetary policy or trade wars; impact could meet shallow market depth to the result of severe but short-lived moves in target assets. We should never presume that probably means certainty when it comes to seasonal distortions like these. While liquidity is technically only truly capped on Thursday, market expectations traditionally curb activity in the day preceding the drain as participants look to take off what they deem as excess risk that would be prone to volatility during the downtime. Further, since the holiday falls on a Thursday this year in the middle of the Summer doldrums, it is very likely that Friday will be treated as an extended holiday weekend. That is as much ‘self-fulfilling’ anticipation as practical conditional adjustment. Chart of Average Monthly S&P 500 Performance and Volume Since 1980 In trading through the latter half of this week, it is simply more reasonable to spot opportunities that could reasonably play out in constrained conditions. Modest ranges are the most practical scenario to monitor for given this backdrop. However, I know the pull that volatility has on the speculative rank. If we are looking for the most concentrated opportunity for activity to fight the dying light of activity for this week, it would undoubtedly be USDCAD. On a technical basis, this pair has experienced a significant tumble this past month that followed clearance of a diminishing wedge within a much longer rising trend channel. After dropping 1.3400 and then using the former support as new resistance, the pair went for stumbled over 300 points lower. In the process, the market slid through the 200-day moving average and pushed its bearish deviation to that longer-term trend measure to its most extreme since early 2018. At the moment there is a collection of technical figures that we are facing in the 1.3050/80 vicinity – a range low back to November and proximate Fibonaccis in the 38.2% Fib of the 2016 peak to 2017 trough and 38.2% Fib of the bull run from that same 2017 low to this year’s high. Chart of USDCAD with 200-Day Moving Average and Spot-200DMA Disparity (Daily)
What makes the USDCAD further unique is the level of event risk the pair faces. While the top listing for the US Dollar today is the ISM service sector (non-manufacturing) report as it represents the largest overall segment of GDP, there will be particular influence for this specific pair in the simultaneous release of May trade figures from the United States and Canada. The same concerted release factor will be in play on Friday as well. June employment data from both countries are set to cross the wires at 12:30 GMT. Both are well-known market movers for their respective currencies when the print deviates from forecasts.
A final consideration of interest is the market’s take on the USDCAD’s prospects. Though prone to picking tops and bottoms, retail FX traders are certainly mounting an exceptional effort for USDCAD following its drop. Looking at the IGCS (IG Client Sentiment) data, we find that there has been an explosion of long positions these past weeks which has pushed the net speculative positioning among this faction of traders to the most extreme long view that we have seen in a long time. We focus on USDCAD in this short video.
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-03 02:48:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Is Kiwi Dollar Ready to Turn Lower? Posted: 02 Jul 2019 08:20 PM PDT Hits: 7 NZDUSD Technical ANALYSIS: NEUTRAL
See our free trading guide to help build confidence in your NZDUSD trading strategy! The New Zealand Dollar put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on a retest of support-turned-resistance in the 0.6699-0.6727 area, hinting that the upswing of mid-June lows may have topped. Initial support line in the 0.6653-73 zone, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for another challenge of the 0.6575-91 region. A look at more immediate positioning on the four-hour chart warns against overextrapolation however. Prices are resting at rising trendline support defining the bounds of the latest upside foray, warning that a convincing reversal is yet to be confirmed. Indeed, a bounce from support may yet materialize, with a push above the 0.6682-85 price band putting the June high at 0.6727 back in focus.
On balance, this makes for conflicted direction cues and hints that traders might opt against showing strong commitment one way or another until greater clarity can be had. A break below trend support – now at 0.6645 – would begin to resolve the matter in sellers' favor. Alternatively, a daily close above last month's swing top would invalidate topping cues and set the stage for upward continuation. NZDUSD TRADING RESOURCES:— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the Comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| AUDUSD Wobbled on China PMI Data as Global Growth Concerns Mount Posted: 02 Jul 2019 07:07 PM PDT Hits: 13 But don’t just read our analysis – put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk. Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets. We’ll email you login details shortly. 2019-07-03 01:45:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| EURUSD Rate Pullback Stalls Despite Dovish ECB Forward Guidance Posted: 02 Jul 2019 05:48 PM PDT Hits: 12 EUR/USD Rate Talking PointsThe recent pullback in EURUSD appears to be stalling ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with the exchange rate at risk of exhibiting a more bullish behavior over the coming days as it struggles to extend the string of lower highs and lows from earlier this week. EURUSD Rate Pullback Stalls Despite Dovish ECB Forward GuidanceEURUSD struggled to hold its ground as the European Union nominates International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde to replace European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, and it remains to be seen if the Governing Council will implement more non-standard measures ahead of the upcoming transition as the central bank prepares to launch another round of Targeted Long-Term Refinance Operations (TLTRO) in September. Recent comments from ECB board member Philip Lane suggest the central bank will take additional steps to insulate the monetary union as "an extended phase of below-target inflation poses a communication challenge in maintaining focus on the medium-term inflation goal." As a result, it seems as though the ECB will continue to push monetary policy into unchartered territory as Mr. Lane insists that the Governing Council "can add further monetary accommodation if it is required to deliver our objective." The dovish forward guidance for monetary policy undermines the broader outlook for EURUSD as there appears to be a growing discussion at the ECB to implement a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) for the Main Refinance Rate, its flagship benchmark for borrowing costs, but the Governing Council may keep monetary policy on auto-pilot ahead of President Draghi's departure at the end of October especially as the Euro area shows limited signs of an imminent recession. In turn, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on tap for July 31 may play an increased role in dictating EURUSD volatility as Fed Fund futures still highlight a 100% probability for at least a 25bp reduction. Speculation for a change in regime may keep EURUSD afloat over the near-term, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may come under pressure to reverse the four rate-hikes from 2018 amid the ongoing shift in US trade policy. With that said, the current environment may generate a larger correction in EURUSD as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. start to project a lower trajectory for the benchmark interest rate. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets. EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Euro Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-03 00:30:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| GBPUSD Eyes Support on BoE Governor Mark Carney, AUDUSD May Rise Posted: 02 Jul 2019 04:35 PM PDT Hits: 13 Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points
Not sure where the British Pound is going next? We just released the third quarter GBPUSD fundamental and technical forecast! BoE's Mark Carney Sinks the PoundThe British Pound was the worst-performing major on Tuesday, tumbling as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke in Bournemouth. What caught the eye of investors was when he mentioned that global trade tensions increased downside risks. He also offered a rather disappointing outlook for second-quarter economic growth, seeing it as "considerably weaker". According to overnight index swaps, odds of a BoE rate cut by year-end shot up to nearly 50 percent from about 25 yesterday. While the central bank has been in favor of hiking rates, the threat of a "no-deal" Brexit is keeping them on hold for the time being. In fact, Mr Carney even mentioned that it is "unsurprising" that the markets are envisioning a lower interest rate. GBPUSD Technical AnalysisThis leaves GBPUSD once again aiming towards the January "flash crash" low in its downtrend since March. However, the pair has been oscillating between 1.2582 and 1.2798, with a false downside breakout through the former that left a low at 1.2506. A close under 1.2582 opens the door to testing 1.2506 before attempting to find lows last seen in 2017. GBPUSD Daily Chart*Charts Created in TradingView Meanwhile, the anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed against its major counterparts. The decline in USDJPY picked up pace shortly after Mark Carney spoke as US government bond yields declined and anti-fiat gold prices rallied absent a clear catalyst. In fact, the precious metal experienced its best performance in a day since June 2016, climbing over 2.5 percent. Wednesday's Asia Pacific Trading SessionAfter yesterday's RBA rate cut that left Australian Dollar bears disappointed, Aussie traders will be closely watching upcoming Caixin China PMI outcomes after official manufacturing surveys pointed to a contraction in the sector earlier this week. Data has been tending to underperform relative to expectations in the world's second-largest economy and more of the same could sink AUDUSD. However, IG Client Sentiment is currently offering a stronger AUDUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias given the unwinding in net-long positioning as traders pile into favoring shorts. To learn how you can use this tool in your trading, join me every week on Wednesday's at 00:00 GMT for live sessions where I will also be taking a look at what it has to say about the prevailing trends in markets. FX Trading Resources— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
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