| By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Sad news this morning. America’s last honest central banker died last night. More to come… In the meantime, U.S. markets got a jolt of joy juice on Friday. Widely reported was a “blowout jobs report” that showed the economy is “still strong.” If that weren’t enough, the Trump administration said the trade talks were back on track. That was all investors needed. The Dow rose 337 points. | Recommended Link | | Trump’s New 5G Plan Is Opening The Flood Gates The Trump administration just unveiled a new 5G FAST plan… Trump’s 5G plan is opening the flood gates to 3 million new jobs, $12.3 trillion in economic growth, and a brand new 5G device. One of the world’s top angel investors – a tech genius named Jeff Brown – believes the company behind this device is the Number One Tech Stock of 2019, and it will go from $0 to nearly $100 billion in sales – within a year. Warning: This presentation may be banned at any moment, watch now before you lose your chance for good! | | | -- | Drastic Action Donald J. Trump picked up the “blowout” theme too: This is a blowout. Look at these manufacturing numbers, a blowout. Nobody mentioned the fact that most of the jobs were not in manufacturing… and even the smallish boost in November came from an end to the GM strike, not robust growth in the manufacturing sector. Instead, the major trends continue: fewer good-paying jobs in manufacturing; more low-paying gigs in the service sector. Nor did anyone want to spoil the party by recalling that unemployment is not a leading indicator. Companies make their hiring decisions months before the new employees reach the payroll. Employment is always high… just before a recession. Then, when sales sag and profits disappear, companies do not immediately jettison their employees; they reduce the number of hours worked… waiting to see how bad things will get before they take more drastic action. Which is exactly what they seem to be doing now. If you look at “hours worked” instead of the number of employees, you see the same softening trend we see just about everywhere else. And where it is most visible is just where you’d expect – in shipping and hauling… Biggest Bankruptcy This morning brings news of the biggest bankruptcy ever in the trucking industry. Celadon is off the road. As posted by Arnold and Itkin trial lawyers: This weekend, noted trucking company Celadon shut down its operations in preparation for an imminent bankruptcy. Unfortunately, the company didn’t warn its 3,000 drivers across North America. As a result, there are hundreds of truckers left stranded with no way of delivering their loads and no sure way to get rid of their rigs. Celadon has not provided drivers with fare for bus, rail, or air travel home. Celadon’s bankruptcy was first reported on December 6, when it was revealed that the company defaulted on its loans and couldn’t find additional financing. Remember, you can goose up a stock market with funny money; but if the goods aren’t moving, you don’t have a genuine boom. And when a recession approaches, the orders slow… and the trucks idle. Late-Stage Boom We reported last week that the U.S. trade deficit is falling… but for the wrong reasons. Americans just aren’t buying as much from overseas. And the stuff they don’t buy isn’t making its way onto trucks and trains… which leaves dockworkers, stevedores, and truckers with time on their hands. You can see that by looking at how long employees spend on the job each week. The figures are now negative – with falling hours of work for trade, transportation, utilities, and warehousing workers – just as they were on the approach to the last major crisis in 2007. In other words, the blowout employment numbers are more of a reflection of the past than the future. And they’re typical of a late stage boom. But the longer it takes the boom to end… the more people begin to think it is eternal. Then, they try to explain it, looking at warts and scars… and taking them for beauty marks. | Recommended Link | | Executive Order Mandates Production of What One Scientist Calls “Alien Technology” President Trump signed Executive Order No. 13817 to ensure the production of this exotic substance. One materials engineer says it “might as well be alien technology”… Not only because it is extremely hard to obtain… But because it is essential to powering the latest tech innovations, such as 5G phones, and even laser weapons. One U.S. company is following the President’s directive and actively developing this game-changing technology. If they succeed, they could help ensure America’s tech dominance for the next decade… and potentially show investors extraordinary gains of up to 6,000%. | | | -- | Surprising Claptrap Now that the world is deep in negative rates, for example, the world’s thinkers are busily thinking about why negative rates are not grotesque… but attractive. As for debt, the more the merrier; it can help heal the sick, feed the poor… and buy a new aircraft carrier! You’d expect this kind of claptrap from Kudlow, Krugman, Piketty, Lagarde, Summers et al. But et tu, George? George Gilder, Gale Pooley, and Marian Tupy are normally sensible men. Gilder wrote one of the best books on money ever published, The Scandal of Money. And Pooley and Tupy developed the “time price” analysis, which helps us understand what is really going on. As Gilder put it: Time-prices explain economic reality far better than the contorted analyses of conventional government economists, with their subjective Consumer Price Indices, GDP deflators, and Purchasing Power Parity guesswork. But now, they are on the other side of the aisle. And it’s an important aisle… New Era On one side are those who believe it is a Brave New World, made great by advances in technology and expertise. On the other, where your editor sits… lonely as a cloud… are those who think it’s really the same old world, in which we humans fall into sin and error on a more-or-less regular basis… and are subject to fits of collective insanity from time to time. Which puts us at odds with almost all academic economists, central bankers, government policy makers… and just about everyone else. They all think the government needs to spend more money to “stimulate” the economy… to boost “demand”… or simply to create more consumer price inflation. “Forget the debt,” they say… “That’s your grandfather’s worry, not ours.” They all think we really have entered a great and glorious New Era. Have we? Are our central bankers wiser than ever before? Have we nothing more to fear than fear-mongering itself? Are technology and innovation going to save us from our record debts… and help our economy grow so fast that even negative rates will seem generous? We’ll see… stay tuned… Regards, Bill Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@bonnerandpartners.com. FEATURED READS Finding a Decent Job Is Next to Impossible
As Bill has been writing, the number of well-paying U.S. jobs is falling. The U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) says this trend has been happening for the last 30 years, and solutions are yet to be found… Artificial Intelligence for the Aging Will Shape Economy
Tech expert Jeff Brown recently wrote about how artificial intelligence is helping people age better and live longer. Now, a new sector called AI for Longevity is expected to pump trillions of dollars into the global economy over the next three decades… and reform current economic ideas about aging. MAILBAG Bill’s trade war analysis riled up mixed opinions from Dear Readers on Trump’s economic decisions… Trump is so ignorant of history, politics, and government, it is not possible that all of the trade wars are somehow crafty. The man attacks allies, and befriends foes. There is no reason for a trade war against Brazil, France, China, or anyone else. The POTUS is an idiot, and an embarrassment to our nation. Remember when he said that he loves trade wars because they are so easy to win? Has he won? Remember when he used the excuse of Canada attacking the Capitol and burning down government buildings as a reason to place tariffs on Canadian goods? Which is worse: his ignorance of history, or his using that ignorance to place our number one trading partner and closest ally at odds with us? Trump is merely a bully, narcissist, and a liar. Worst of all, he’s not even a real conservative. Mr. Bonner is much too kind to him. – Keith J. To blame Trump for the sins of the last 50 years is ignoring all of the politicians and inept Federal Reserve chairs that absolutely destroyed the value of the U.S. economy! Please give us a nonpartisan cure for all of these economic ills. Living in Baltimore doesn’t help your credibility for good judgement, or ability to help cure local historic problems. You ought to run for mayor and revitalize Baltimore, and show everyone how to fix the problems you bemoan incessantly! – Lyle W. Was Bill too kind to Trump, as Keith says… or too harsh on him like Lyle believes? Write us at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… December 10th, 2019: America’s Biggest Wealth Event! (It’ll be 1,045 times more lucrative than legal marijuana.) Since February 11th, the Feds have been rushing to roll out a new technology worth a mind-blowing $23 trillion. CNBC says it “could have 10 times the economic impact that the internet had.” Just think, Amazon stock once traded at $1 a share. Today it’s priced at over $1,700 a share. For investors, this is an opportunity that’s 1,045 times more lucrative than legal pot. E.B. Tucker, Casey Research’s chief analyst, shows you how to secure the biggest payday of your life from it. Click here to see the biggest wealth-creation event in U.S. history. 
| 
No comments:
Post a Comment