| By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Round us swirls a blinding dust of accusations… slurs… mad dogs… lost thoughts… and screwball ideas… “You dog-faced pony soldier,” says a rattled Joe Biden to a student protester. Senator Romney is a “pompous ass,” says the President of the United States. The Trump Team’s budget for 2021 came out yesterday. The press said it planned to “slash the safety net.” The Democrats said it was “dead on arrival.” The Wall Street Journal had this comment: The $4.8 trillion budget for fiscal 2021, released Monday, assumes that economic growth will be stronger than most forecasters project. To hit its targets, the budget excludes tax cuts the administration may propose later and includes spending cuts that are vague, unlikely to advance in Congress, or both. “A lot of specific policies are meaningful, but the overall numbers are largely phony,” said Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that favors deficit reduction. | Recommended Link | | Hero or Whistleblower? You Decide If you own a cell phone, then mobile service providers hope you never get to see this video going viral. It was shot in downtown Denver by a multi-millionaire, who exposed sensitive truths about cell phones and 5G. His experiment will strike a bad chord with cell phone companies. But you've got to see what this man "leaked," and what it means for phone users in the weeks ahead. | | | -- | Lost in the Shopping Mall What fun! Here at the Diary, we eschew politics. But now, politics is like raw sewage backing up the city drains. We’re forced to put on our hip boots and have a closer look. There in the putrid muck float the numbers – GDP… unemployment… debt… deficits… the budget. And there, too, are the “feelings.” Some people feel so much better now that we have Donald J. Trump in charge. Others feel like the whole thing stinks. But there is more to the story. It is a story with heroes and villains… with Sturm and Drang… and a moral. Yes, it is the story of the rise and fall of great empires. Told often. Rehearsed sequentially. And it goes on. Part of the tale is merely the story of all natural things. Empires age. They add a few pounds. They slow down. Eventually, they get lost in shopping malls. But another part of the story begins with a specific event. The feds replaced the old dollar with a new dollar on August 15, 1971. The queer new money queered and corrupted everything it touched – including politics… | Recommended Link | “Genesis” technology – 32X bigger than 5G 5G and "AI" are all the rage… But here's what you likely don't know: The world's best investors are lining up behind an explosive new technology that could trump them all. Warren Buffett calls it “ingenious.” And The Wall Street Journal adds: "It's a foundational technology, like the Internet and electricity." Apple's co-founder, Steve Wozniak, who said 5G "is not going to impact me much"… is calling this "the future." In fact, according to research from the World Economic Forum, this new technology is on pace to be 32 times bigger than 5G! On January 1, 2020, an important event just happened that will set this technology flying. But that's not the only one… 3 major catalysts are on tap for "Genesis" technology in 2020. | | | | Like a ’56 Chevy The U.S. empire reached its first peak on July 20, 1969. That was the day an American astronaut stepped out onto the moon. Even today, more than 50 years later, the whole project seems almost fantastical, as if we couldn’t do it again. But that was after nearly 200 years of growth… huge technological breakthroughs… and two world wars from which the U.S., alone among the world’s nations, came out not only stronger, but richer. The economy was purring like a ’56 Chevy. Quarterly GDP growth rates hit over 15% in the ’50s and over 10% in the ’60s. Real incomes had been increasing since the Great Depression. And not just for the rich. Au contraire, the gap between rich and poor had been closing, not widening. Importantly, people were starting new businesses. By the late ’60s, 17% of businesses were less than 12 months old. Many of these survived, grew, and became the dominant businesses of today. And they sold their products all over the world. Until 1971, the country had an unbroken record of trade surpluses stretching back two centuries. People were young and vigorous, too, with a median age of less than 30 years in 1969. And compared to today, the nation managed its money well. Eisenhower had cut the budget and paid down the national debt. In the ’60s, the government began running deficits, but they were small – less than 1% of GDP. In 1969, even after sending a man to the moon… and paying for the two big boondoggles of the era, the war in Vietnam and the Great Society, the feds actually managed a $3.2 billion surplus. And the entire federal debt equaled only $353 billion, barely a third as much as the market value of a single company, Microsoft, today. | Recommended Link | | President’s order makes AI red hot 2020 is the year that “intelligent” machines jump from science fiction into your everyday life… And this big announcement could cause three artificial intelligence stocks to double or triple in the very near future. Early investors already had the chance to make 737% in just over a month. These three companies are far ahead of the rest. (One of them already has an 80% market share in a key component!) Right now, you can get into all three stocks for around $226… Before Wall Street catches on. Interested? | | | -- | Bent and Twisted It was with this background of success, achievement, and youthful optimism – set to the tune of “Sugar, Sugar” by the Archies – that Neil Armstrong became the first human being to walk on the lunar surface. Then, just two years later, the Inflationary Era began. The feds pulled a switcheroo, substituting a paper dollar for the gold-backed dollar that had worked so well since 1792. The Nasdaq was founded that same year. The first email was sent. Starbucks opened its first store. Nixon announced a “war on drugs.” And Ed Sullivan went off the air. And gradually, the empire bent and twisted like arthritic fingers. Today, only about 10% of businesses are less than a year old. And while half of all companies were less than five years old as late as the 1980s, only 39% were that young by 2010… while more than 34% had been around for more than 15 years. People are older, too. And fatter. The median American is almost 10 years older today than he was in 1969, and he weighs 30 pounds more. Wage increases stopped in 1975. The convergence of rich and poor also came to a halt. The divergence is now greater than it has ever been since the Census Bureau started keeping track in 1967. And the unbroken history of trade surpluses turned into an unbroken future of trade deficits. As for federal finances, we have oft recited them. The deficits now are five times greater – as a percentage of GDP – than they were in the ’60s. And today’s $23 trillion in federal debt is 65 times larger. Finally, GDP growth rates have come down, from an average of around 5% in the ’50s and ’60 to about half that today. Make America Great Again? Tall order. Regards, Bill MARKET INSIGHT: AFTER AN 18% FALL, THIS CURRENCY IS STILL VULNERABLE Maria’s Note: Longtime readers know Bill is not a trader. But for Dear Readers so inclined, we’re passing along a timely way to take advantage of weakness in the Aussie dollar. It comes from the desk of Andy Krieger, who made the front page of The Wall Street Journal after booking a $300 million profit from a single trade… Andy will break his silence about that trade, for the first time on camera, at his BIG Trade event next Thursday, February 20. And seven lucky folks will get Andy’s research and trade recommendations, completely free. If you’re interested, find out more here. Then read on for Andy’s timely analysis…
By Andy Krieger, Editor, Trading Icons The Australian dollar (AUD) has been under heavy pressure lately. And it shows no signs of stopping. Since the start of 2020, the AUD has lost over 5% of its value relative to the U.S. dollar (USD). That’s a significant move for a major currency. But it’s still one of my favorite shorting opportunities right now. Here’s why… The positive performance of the AUD during the first part of the last decade was largely fueled by the growth of the Chinese economy. China accounts for 38% of all of Australia’s exports. So as the Chinese economy roared ahead, Australian exports to China surged along with it. In other words, the success of the Australian economy has largely been tied to the success of the Chinese economy. Now, though, the Australian economy is facing headwinds. Fueled by the U.S.-China trade war, China’s growth dropped to its lowest level in 27 years last summer, digging into Australia’s exports… The bushfires have caused massive property damage, loss of wildlife, and the destruction of 186,000 square miles of land… And just when things started looking better – with the partial resolution of the trade war, along with heavy rains to put out the raging bushfires… The country now faces its biggest challenge yet: the coronavirus outbreak in China. As a result, the land down under is getting clobbered again… and its currency along with it. Just take a look at the chart below… 
In January 2018, just over two years ago, AUD was worth $0.8110 USD. (Meaning AUD was worth about $0.81 per U.S. dollar.) On Friday, the pair closed around $0.6675 – an 18% drop. That’s the lowest level in nearly 11 years… and the fundamentals suggest it may have much further to fall. As I mentioned above, the coronavirus is the biggest threat. Remember, the Chinese economy makes up over one-third of Australia’s exports. And the coronavirus has the potential to severely impact the Chinese economy… It’s still too early to say how weak the first-quarter economic numbers coming out of China will be. But many economists forecast they’re somewhere between ugly and hideous. The coronavirus has already brought much of the Chinese industrial production and travel to a standstill. I expect these numbers to collapse in the first quarter of 2020… And lead to a knock-on effect that drives the AUD down to levels we haven’t seen in nearly 20 years. And there’s another key headwind for the Australian dollar… Depending on the scale of the coronavirus impact, the Reserve Bank of Australia could be forced to cut interest rates further. Aggressive monetary easing – through not only interest rate cuts, but potentially even quantitative easing (money printing) – could very well be the result. This would weaken the AUD further. Now, I am not forecasting that we’ll see the AUD trade down to less than $0.50 per USD. (Its lowest rate ever was $0.4780 back in April 2001.) It’s premature to paint that bleak of a picture… But if China’s economy goes into a real tailspin as many predict, we should expect the AUD to follow. A move towards the lows of 2009, around the $0.6010 level, is certainly realistic. That would be another 10% drop. Even a move to $0.6250 would be a big move, and that is reasonable if the coronavirus inflicts much more damage to the Chinese economy. I’ll refine my forecasts over the coming weeks as we see how things play out. In the meantime, currency traders can look to sell short the AUD/USD currency pair between $0.6705 and $0.6735. Risk only about 1% on the trade for an excellent risk/reward ratio. – Andy Krieger P.S. Next Thursday, February 20 at 8 p.m. ET, I’ll reveal the details of an imminent Black Swan event that could have a serious impact on your wealth… Ignore it and you’ll be putting yourself at risk. But if you follow my advice and position yourself correctly, you could potentially 30x your money, turning every $1,000 into $30,000… Click here to reserve your spot, and secure your chance to receive my trading research and guidance completely free. Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@bonnerandpartners.com. FEATURED READS Coronavirus Is Wreaking Havoc on the World Economy
Luxury goods, smartphones, and car manufacturing have been hit hard so far by the coronavirus. And because supply chains for many companies are global, there could be far-reaching effects that hinder your shopping opportunities… Trade War Consequences: Companies Ditch U.S.-Made Tech
The U.S.-China trade war has encouraged Chinese tech companies to seek equipment from firms outside the U.S. On top of coronavirus supply chain concerns, this unintended consequence could further tie up American competitiveness… Future of Tech, Part II: Jeff Brown and Doug Casey on Genetic Editing, Nanotechnology, and Interstellar Science
In the second part of their conversation, Bonner & Partners tech expert Jeff Brown sits down with Casey Research founder Doug Casey to discuss what you need to know about the future of technology… MAILBAG Mixed opinions on yesterday’s Diary, “As Rich as an Argentine”… After Bill’s analysis of the president’s State of the Union address, I would suggest that Bill stick with his financial newsletter and save his political views for his friends. – Gary S. Bill is entitled to his views and manner of speaking, and has been an astute observer of things economic, political, social, and philosophical and all his readers are wiser and more enlightened for the reading. Some readers want a cheerleader and they seem mollified by the person inhabiting the White House with his entirely fake narrative. The real problem lies with the American soul and Trump has tapped into a core negativity himself, which he is riding very effectively. The reference by Mr. Bonner to Cal Thomas and the end of the American Empire is sobering and unfortunately accurate. America is gradually succumbing to the forces of greed, arrogance, and over-reach in so many respects. The allure and attraction offered by quick profits, disregard for the planet, failure to attend to the basics like roads and bridges, not to mention the poor and displaced is pointing us in the direction of an aging and overweight empire that could implode from its own weight. – Paul H. A thought: My boss at IBM (sales), probably the best one I ever had, used to tell us minions not to come into his office to complain about anything, UNLESS we had an idea or suggestion to make whatever we were referring to, better. Bill writes beautifully (must have gotten an “A” in English), but most of what he says we already knew. Our current president is a true enigma, no doubt. I think he is still trying to clean up the swamp. Unfortunately, to some degree, he is sinking into some potential quick-sand. I think too many are afraid to lose their jobs by standing up to him, and that’s a shame. Good governance is not supposed to work that way. A good manager… no, a great manager, listens to his trusted advisors before making decisions. At some point, we have to slow down the giveaways. But, if Bill has some ideas to improve, let’s hear ‘em. And, as far as Nicaragua or Argentina as a retirement locale, well, good luck, Bill. – Philip G. Do the U.S.’s problems lie with the American soul, as Paul believes? Is Trump still trying to “clean up the swamp,” like Philip says? Write us at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… Is this Bitcoin’s inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto? Is this the inventor of Bitcoin… Satoshi Nakamoto?! Here’s what we know… This mysterious currency trader… First wrote about a one world currency in 1992. He’s a programmer. His daughter’s name is Shoshi. He trades Bitcoin. According to the front page of The Wall Street Journal… he once made $300 million on a single trade. But on Thursday, February 20th, he’s breaking his silence… To show YOU how to beat the market with one big trade. 
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