Forex analysis review |
- GBP/USD. March 27. Results of the day. Boris Johnson handed over a positive test for "coronavirus"
- EUR/USD. March 27. Results of the day. The United States came out on top for "coronavirus" diseases, China is closing its
- Short-term analysis of EURUSD
- Short-term technical analysis of Gold
- March 27, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- March 27, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- Trading recommendations for GBPUSD pair
- EURUSD and GBPUSD: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has become infected with the coronavirus. China has approved a new package
- EUR/USD analysis for 03.27.2020 - Bull flag patten on the 4-hour time frame, buying opporrtunities very hot at the level
- Analysis for Gold 03.27.2020 - Buying still favorrarble because of the breakout of the Mini pitchfork channel. Upward target
- EUR/USD: Traders continue to buy risky assets
- BTC analysis for 03.27.2020 - I expect further drop on BTC towards the levels at $4.400 and $3.800. The breakout of the bear
- Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 27, 2020
- Evening review. EURUSD. 03/27/2020. Negative markets outweigh the effect of incentives
- The dollar is tired of roller coasters
- Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 27, 2020
- GBP/USD: plan for the US session on March 27. The pound took a step towards the lows of the day, but then turned around.
- EUR/USD: plan for the US session on March 27. Sellers of the euro returned to the level of 1.1054. The next goal - 1.0957
- Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD for March 27. America leads the world with the most number of cases of COVID-19
- Technical analysis for EUR/GBP on March 27, 2020
- EUR/USD. Euro's victory: dollar's comeback is just around the corner
- Trader's diary for March 27, 2020. EURUSD. A new fall in markets
- Overview and trading ideas for AUD/USD on March 27, 2020
- EUR/USD. March 27. The coronavirus "kills" the dollar. The new Commitments of Traders (COT) report should show the growth
- GBP/USD. March 27. Today, a corrective pullback of the pound to 1.2055 is possible. Nevertheless, the mood of traders is
| GBP/USD. March 27. Results of the day. Boris Johnson handed over a positive test for "coronavirus" Posted: 27 Mar 2020 08:57 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe Average volatility over the past 5 days: 367p (high). The British pound, unlike the euro, did not find the strength to start a downward correction on the last trading day of the week. On the one hand, this is good, as the British currency will continue to recover. On the other hand, the pound/dollar pair is now moving almost recklessly upwards. Thus, in total over the past month, we have 450 points up, 1,700 down and now 900 more up, and all this is almost without corrections and rollbacks. The pair's volatility remains at a fairly high level - about 360 points per day. It is encouraging to see that the pair passed no more than 200 points today. This gives hope for calming market participants. Although, of course, there are few fundamental reasons for reassurance now... Today, it became known that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was infected by "coronavirus". Johnson will now have to self-isolate himself in Downing Street until he recovers. However, the Prime Minister is not going to go on sick leave, he will continue to lead the country and lead the opposition to the "coronavirus". It is noted that Johnson has mild symptoms of the disease. Earlier, Boris Johnson commented on the results of the G-20 summit, saying that cooperation between countries should be expanded to speed up the process of creating a vaccine against the epidemic. Johnson also said that the UK will allocate 210 million pounds for the development of a vaccine against COVID-2019. Unfortunately, all the measures taken by the developed countries of the world to counter the epidemic are not decisive at the moment. At best, it is possible to contain a higher rate of infection growth. At the same time, new cases of the disease are noted every day and the bill is already for thousands of new patients. We believe that the most accurate forecasts are made by representatives of the WHO or the health sector. It is best for doctors to understand what this epidemic is, and how many people can get infected and die. Thus, we believe that the forecasts are not at all reassuring yet. Macroeconomic statistics were not published in the UK today, but in any case, they do not have a great impact on the currency market now. Traders are waiting for statistics for March when a full-scale epidemic began around the world. We have already heard forecasts for the American economy many times, but we can only guess what will happen to the British or European economies. In any case, 2020 will be a black year for the whole world. From a technical point of view, the pound/dollar pair continues its upward movement and overcame the Ichimoku cloud and the resistance level of 1.2242. Thus, the buy signal from Ichimoku "golden" cross has strengthened, and the chances of continuing the formation of an upward trend have increased. Unfortunately, this upward movement can end almost at any moment, since, although volatility has decreased slightly today, anyone can hardly say with confidence that the panic is behind us. Recommendations for long positions: The pound/dollar pair continues to move up. Thus, it is now recommended to stay in purchases of the British pound with the goal of the volatility level for March 27 at 1.2539. There was no rebound from the Senkou span B line or the resistance level of 1.2242. A downward turn of the MACD indicator may signal the beginning of a correction. Recommendations for short positions: It is recommended to sell the pound/dollar pair after fixing below the critical Kijun-sen line, which now passes around the price level of 1.1900. At the moment, the target for sale positions is the support level of 1.1229, but by the time the necessary consolidation occurs, the goals will be different. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 08:56 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe Average volatility over the past 5 days: 171p (high). The last trading day ends for the EUR/USD pair with an ideal development of the first resistance level of 1.1075 and a rebound from this level. Thus, today and in the next few trading days, there may be a downward correction with the goal of the Kijun-sen line. As long as the price is above the critical line, the pair's upward prospects remain. Volatility in the euro/dollar remains quite high, with 130 points already passed today. Nobody knows what will happen to the euro next. We still recommend that traders pay more attention to technical factors since they are the ones that best represent the picture of what is happening. There are a huge number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors that can now influence the market. At the same time, it is not clear which factors from this list are completely ignored by traders, and which ones influence their decisions. It is possible that no factors matter to traders at all, except for one – the "coronavirus" epidemic. Thus, trading on the "foundation" is now extremely problematic, and we do not recommend doing this. Some market participants, as well as ordinary citizens, began to almost open champagne when it became known about the reduction in the number of new diseases in China. The example of a billion-and-a-half dollar China has made it clear that if there is a strict quarantine for a certain time, you can localize the epidemic with relatively small losses. Therefore, many people believed that in Italy, United States, Spain, and everywhere else, everything would go according to the same scenario. That is, not a large proportion of the population will get sick in total, and after a while, the cases of new diseases will stop, and most of the infected patients will recover. However, recent data suggest that new cases of "coronavirus" infection are being recorded in China. Over the past day, 55 new cases were recorded and according to the Health Protection Committee of the PRC, 54 infected citizens arrived from abroad. Thus, on March 28, China officially closes its borders to all foreigners. Earlier, we reported that the United States during the epidemiological lull in China came out on top in the world in terms of the number of people infected with the COVID-2019 virus. Of course, President Donald Trump couldn't ignore this point and said that a strong rise in infections is due to the fact that in the United States, massive testing of all possible cases of the disease was conducted. According to Trump, who even in this situation managed to boast to the whole world, "as many tests as the States have conducted, no country in the world has conducted." At the same time, Donald Trump introduced a state of emergency in a total of 12 States. New York, North Carolina, New Jersey, Iowa, Louisiana, Florida, Texas, Washington, and California were joined by Maryland, Missouri, and Illinois. The emergency mode allows States to receive additional funds allocated by the government. As the "coronavirus" pandemic continues to spread calmly across the planet, the two leaders of the world's largest countries, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, held a telephone conversation in which they agreed to work closely in the fight against the pandemic. "I just finished a conversation with President Xi. The virus ravaging most of our Earth was discussed in detail. China has been through many trials and has a deep understanding of the coronavirus. We are working closely together," Trump wrote on Twitter immediately after the conversation. Meanwhile, in the "European focus" of infection, Italy, again announced an increased number of deaths over the past day. On March 26, the pandemic killed 712 people, and the total number of deaths is already more than 8,000. Recall that the total number of people infected with the virus worldwide is already more than 550,000. Probably, fortunately, on Friday, March 27, the European Union and the United States were not scheduled for a large number of important macroeconomic publications. In the US trading session, data on changes in personal income and spending of the US population for February were published. The first indicator grew by 0.6%, the second - by 0.2% in monthly terms. The consumer confidence indicator from the University of Michigan will be 89.1 with a forecast of 90.0 and a previous value of 95.9. However, these data could not cause any reaction from traders, as they are insignificant in the current conditions. We still believe that it is extremely important for all markets to calm down. It is clear that when James Bullard predicts 30% unemployment, which is higher than during the great depression, and the economy is falling by 30-50%, it is difficult to remain calm. However, the more markets panic, the worse it will be for the markets themselves. Today, just a few hours later, the US House of Representatives will consider a proposal to provide financial assistance to the American economy in the amount of $2 trillion. Most likely, this package will be approved. Recommendations for long positions: The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended to buy the euro currency after the MACD indicator turns up or after overcoming the level of 1.1075 with the goal of the volatility level of 1.1200. At the beginning of next week, new support and resistance levels will be determined. Recommendations for short positions: Sell orders are recommended to be considered only after the pair is fixed below the Kijun-sen line, which will mean a change in the trend for the pair to a downward one. In this case, the first target for sale positions will be the support level of 1.0476. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 08:46 AM PDT EURUSD is pulling back today after reaching our next target of 1.1030 as we explained in yesterday's analysis. Support is now at 1.0960 where we used to have resistance. Price is bouncing off this support and as long as price remains above the trend line support, we could see a move towards our next target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Green line - support EURUSD has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Trend remains bullish. There is no bearish divergence by the RSI so far. No bearish reversal signal or warning so far. However traders should keep in mind that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is a key reversal point. A level where the chances of a reversal and rejection are high. Support is at 1.0960. Breaking below this level will turn trend to bearish again. Until then we remain bullish. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Short-term technical analysis of Gold Posted: 27 Mar 2020 08:36 AM PDT Gold price continues to trade around $1,620. Short-term trend remains bullish as price continues to trade above the key support trend line. There are some warning signs by the RSI in the 4hour chart but overall I continue to be neutral waiting for a reversal.
Gold remains in a bullish trend above the 4hour Kumo (cloud) and the green trend line. Support is at $1.609-$1,620. Breaking below this level will be a bearish signal. If this happens we expect Gold price to reach at least the upper Kumo (cloud) boundary at $1.560-70. For now trend remains bullish. A 4 hour close below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) will be a first weak bearish reversal signal. If followed by a break below the green trend line then we will have increased chances that the high is in. The recent new short-term higher high was not accompanied by a higher high in the 4 hour RSI. This is a bearish warning. Currently I prefer to be neutral Gold waiting for a bearish confirmation of a reversal. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| March 27, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 27 Mar 2020 08:07 AM PDT
Since January 13, progressive bearish pressure has been built above the price level of 1.2780-1.2800 until March the 2nd when transient bearish breakout 1.2780 took place within the depicted wide-ranged slightly bearish channel. Shortly after, significant bullish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2780 on March 4. Hence, a quick bullish movement was expressed towards the price zone of 1.3165-1.3200 where significant bearish pressure brought the pair back below 1.2780, 1.2500 then 1.2260 via quick bearish engulfing H4 candlesticks. Recently, the GBPUSD has reached new LOW price levels around 1.1450, slightly below the historical low (1.1650) achieved in September 2016 (As depicted on the Weekly Chart). Recently, the GBP/USD pair looked very OVERSOLD around the price levels of 1.1450 where a double-bottom reversal pattern was recently demonstrated. Technical outlook will probably remain bullish if bullish persistence is maintained above 1.1890-1.1900 (Double-Bottom Neckline) on the H4 Charts. Bullish breakout above 1.1900 (Latest Descending High) invalidated the bearish scenario temporarily & enabled a quick bullish movement to occur towards 1.2260. Next bullish targets around 1.2520 and 1.2680 are expected to be addressed if sufficient bullish momentum is maintained. On the other hand, H4 Candlestick re-closure below 1.1900 hinders further bullish advancement and enhances the bearish momentum on the short term. If so, Initial Bearish targets would be located around 1.1650 and 1.1450 provided that quick H4 bearish closure below 1.1900 is achieved. Trade recommendations : Conservative traders should be watching for any bearish pullback towards 1.1900 as a valid BUY signal. T/P level to be located around 1.2000 and 1.2265 while S/L should remain below 1.0770. On the other hand, the current bullish movement demonstrated towards 1.2265 can be watched for a valid SELL signal by Intraday Traders. S/L should be set as H4 candlestick closure above 1.2300. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| March 27, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 27 Mar 2020 07:34 AM PDT
Since December 30, the EURUSD pair has trended-down within the depicted bearish channel until few weeks ago, when extensive bearish decline established a new low around 1.0790 where the EUR/USD pair looked OVERSOLD after such extensive bearish decline. On February 20, recent signs of bullish recovery were demonstrated around 1.0790 leading to the recent steep bullish movement towards 1.1000, 1.1175, 1.1360 and finally 1.1480 where a (123) bearish reversal pattern was initiated around. This turned the short-term technical outlook for the EURUSD pair into bearish when bearish persistence below the Keyzone of 1.1235 was maintained on a daily basis. Moreover, the mentioned intermediate-term bearish Head & Shoulders pattern has achieved all of its projection target levels. Earlier this week, the EURUSD pair has expressed significant bullish recovery around 1.1065 The recent bullish engulfing H4 candlesticks as well as the recently-demonstrated ascending bottoms indicated a high probability bullish pullback at least towards 1.0980 and 1.1075 (Fibonacci Level 50%) that should be watched by conservative traders for probable bearish rejection. On Tuesday, Intraday traders were looking for bullish persistence above 1.0790 - 1.0830 as this enabled further bullish advancement to pursue towards higher levels. Further bullish advancement towards 1.1075 was executed as expected by the end of Yesterday's consolidations. On the other hand, negative divergence is being demonstrated on the depicted H4 chart suggesting a high probability bearish rejection to occur around the current supply levels to be tested. Key Supply levels in confluence with significant Fibonacci levels are located around 1.1075 (50% Fibonacci) and 1.1175 (61.8% Fibonacci) where bearish rejection was highly-expected. Trade recommendations : Intraday traders can wait for another bullish pullback towards the mentioned key-level around 1.1075 and look for some bearish rejection signs (Double-Top Pattern) as valid SELL signals for short-term trades. S/L to be placed above 1.1130 while Initial T/P level to be located around 1.1000. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading recommendations for GBPUSD pair Posted: 27 Mar 2020 07:10 AM PDT From a comprehensive analysis, we see an intensive upward move that managed to break through the area of interaction of trade forces. And now about the details. 700 points – this is how much the quote passed from the set lows in just three working days. The activity of the market is striking, where impulse jumps on a daily basis form movements that were simply unrealistic. In the previous review, we highlighted the topic that it is worth working in local operations in the current circumstances, which turned out to be the right tactic. The area of interaction of trade forces 1.1957//1.2000//1.2150, which in terms of technical analysis, played an important role in the market, was passed without unnecessary difficulties. This step once again confirms the theory that the external background and pressure on market participants provoke rapid jumps that have no other focus. It turns out that working with relatively short-term fluctuations at this time is a priority task since while maintaining a toxic external background, fluctuations can reach the values of local trends. In terms of volatility, we see that the last day once again set a record for the week, where the daily fluctuation was 452 points, which is 162% higher than the daily average. I would like to note the dynamics of the average hourly candles, where the dynamics of 43 points is recorded, this is comparable to the activity of daily candles of the main pairs, before the current circumstances in the world. Volatility details: Monday-165 points; Tuesday-245 points; Wednesday-172 points; Thursday-358 points; Friday-359 points; Monday-144 points; Tuesday-271 points; Wednesday-676 points; Thursday-354 points; Friday-522 points; Monday-267 points; Tuesday-296 points; Wednesday-333 points; Thursday-452 points. The average daily indicator relative to the volatility dynamics is 172 points (see the volatility table at the end of the article). Detailing the past day by the minute, we see that after a short walk along with the level of 1.1850 during the Pacific and Asian sessions, the quote still took the upward side, forming a move above the mark of 1.2245. As discussed in the previous review, traders considered long positions even from the breakdown of accumulation within the level of 1.1850, but as soon as the price passed higher than 1.1972, everything became clear, purchase operations flowed like a river, everyone had a chance to earn. Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), we see a recovery of more than 49% relative to the inertia course. It is worth noting that the long-term downward trend remains unchanged in the market. The news background of the past day had data on UK retail sales, which slowed from 0.9% to 0.0%, despite the fact that the forecast was not so gloomy data. The market reaction to the statistical indicators was almost absent, for the reason that everyone was waiting for the main news on the US labor market. So this is a complete shock, this is what the market faced when it saw data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, where initial applications increased from 282,000 to 3,283,000, and the number of repeat applications increased from 1,702,000 to 1,803,000. The current situation is comparable to the great depression. Now we understand the reason for such a rapid weakening of the US dollar. At the same time, the Bank of England held a meeting yesterday during which the base interest rate was kept at the same level of 0.1%. In fact, the regulator remained committed to the same scheme as at the recent emergency meeting. It is worth noting that the committee voted unanimously to continue the program of repurchasing government bonds and corporate bonds for an additional £200 billion. The total volume of these purchases is £645 billion. In terms of the information background, we see the COVID-19 virus developing around the world, where 2,172 new cases of infection were recorded over the last day (March 26), which means that 11,812 of them have already been infected in the United Kingdom, with 578 fatalities. Hot news: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson became infected with the coronavirus, and the Prime Minister tweeted about this about an hour ago. "Over the past 24 hours, I have developed mild symptoms, and the test for coronavirus was positive. I am currently in self-isolation, but I will continue to lead the government's response via videoconference, and we will fight the coronavirus," twitter @BorisJohnson. The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar includes the ADP report on employment levels, as well as the report of the United States Department of labor, where, due to the difficult circumstances associated with the coronavirus, we can again see the terrible consequences in the form of statistics. The most interesting events are displayed below: On Monday, March 30 United Kingdom 09:30 London time - data on crediting US 15:00 London time - pending home sales (y/y) (Feb): Previous 5.7%->Forecast 1.7% On Tuesday, March 31 United Kingdom 07:00 London time - GDP US 14:00 London time - applications composite index of the cost of housing S&P/CS Composite-20 seasonally adjusted On Wednesday, April 1 United Kingdom 09:30 London time - manufacturing sector PMI (March) US 13:15 London time - ADP report on private-sector employment (March) US 15:00 London time - ISM employment index in the manufacturing sector (March) On Thursday, April 2 US 13:30 London time - applications for unemployment benefits On Friday, April 3 US 13:30 London time - report of the United States Department of Labor Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a characteristic slowdown, where the quote leads the concentration inside the levels of 1.2150/1.2350. In fact, the upper level of 1.2350 has not yet been reached, and the time frame is the coordinates of 1.2300 (1.2150/1.2300). It is worth understanding that the slowdown is a temporary phenomenon, where the activity will reappear, and we will see characteristic jumps. Thus, the trading tactics remain unchanged, working in local movements. In terms of the emotional mood of market participants, we see that the external background does not stop surprising traders for a single day. Market activity, in this case, depends directly on it, and since the background toxicity is high, volatility will not decrease in the near future. Detailing the minute-by-minute period, we see that the level of 1.2150 plays the role of support, where it was confirmed when the daily candle was opened. The subsequent amplitude focused on the range of 1.2150/1.2300. In turn, traders consider the 1.2150/1.2300 frames as reference points for local positions in the event of a breakdown. Having a general picture of the actions, we can assume that the fluctuation within the framework of 1.2150/1.2300 is temporary, which means that a new surge will occur soon, on which you can definitely make money. Trading tactics distinguish the method of robots on the breakdown of borders, where the upper frame is a variable value of 1.2300, and the main border is 1.2350. Based on the above information, we will output trading recommendations: - Buy positions are considered in two stages, the first is in the case of fixing the price higher than 1.2310, with a move to 1.2350. The second stage is made after fixing the price higher than 1.2360, with a move to 1.2450-1.2500. - We consider selling positions if the price is fixed below 1.2150 with the prospect of a move to 1.2000. Variable trades can occur within the range of 1.2150/1.2300 (1.2350). Indicator analysis Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that due to the local upward movement, the indicators of technical instruments on hourly periods display a buy signal. At the same time, daily intervals invariably maintain a downward mood due to the general background. Volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year. Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year. (March 27 was based on the time of publication of the article) The volatility of the current time is 173 points, which is comparable to the value of the average daily indicator. It is likely to assume that the market activity will continue to grow since there is no reason for the external background to go down. Key levels Resistance zones: 1.2350**; 1.2500; 1.2620; 1.2725*; 1.2770**; 1.2885*; 1.3000; 1.3170**; 1.3300**; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000***; 1.4350**. Support zones: 1.2150**; 1.2000*** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1.1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000. * Periodic level ** Range level *** Psychological level ****The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustments. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 07:10 AM PDT Today, it became known that Chinese leaders have approved new government plans to implement a package of additional measures that will primarily be aimed at supporting the economy and mitigating the consequences of the new coronavirus pandemic.
The Chinese Politburo said that the new measures include increasing the budget deficit in 2020, which will minimize the damage caused by the pandemic. President Xi Jinping also agreed to this proposal. Among the additional measures, the government plans to further increase the issue of Treasury bonds, as well as target bonds of local authorities. Businesses and companies are also lucky that the new loan terms now provide assistance at a lower interest rate. During the meeting, the top political body of the PRC called on the government to speed up measures to stimulate domestic demand, since the rest of the external world is cut off due to the spread of the coronavirus, which is already affecting external demand. They also discussed stimulating consumer spending.
From the fundamental data released today in the morning, it is worth paying attention only to the report on the consumer confidence index in France, which in March this year fell to 103 points against 104 in February. The indicator was expected to decline to a level of 94 points. Such sustained consumer confidence is surprising. This suggests that many respondents are resilient in the face of a coronavirus pandemic and rely on the authorities to help them if necessary. The German IFO employment barometer fell to 93.4 points in March this year from 98.0 points in February. The Ifo noted that many companies in Germany have put their own hiring plans on hold, but the most problematic place is in the sphere of trade and services, where there is just a record drop in the Ifo barometer. It will be difficult for the Italian economy to survive the coronavirus pandemic, as the sharp decline in economic activity that is already being observed and will continue in the future will seriously affect GDP this year. An interesting study was published today, which indicates that many companies and consumers expect the economy to fall by at least 2.0%. However, these surveys do not yet take into account the complete paralysis across the country due to the suspension of companies and businesses. Most likely, the reduction in the 1st quarter of this year was more than 5.0%, and in the second quarter, we can expect an even greater drop in GDP, up to 10%. Today's speech by Fed representative Robert Kaplan on the topic of credit support and economic problems did not differ much from recent statements made by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Kaplan pointed out that credit support for the economy will come very quickly, and it is quite appropriate that the Fed's measures also affect the fiscal sphere. As for the emergency lending measures currently used by the regulator, they will be curtailed at any time as soon as it becomes clear that the economy has returned to the path of growth. As for unemployment and inflation, the Fed representative is confident of a sharp jump in the first indicator and a decrease in the second. It is expected that by the end of the year, unemployment will be at the levels of 7%-8%. The British pound collapsed against the US dollar, but then regained some of its positions after news that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was diagnosed with coronavirus. After the government confirmed that the Prime Minister was infected, the pound fell by more than 150 points from the highs of the day, but the market reaction was short-term. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 06:55 AM PDT Corona virus news:
Chinese president Xi Jinping has called on Donald Trump to take "substantive actions" to improve relations between the two countries, as China prepared to shut its borders to foreign arrivals amid fears of infections coming from abroad. On Friday, Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping held a phone call about the coronavirus outbreak in an attempt to repair strained relations, following weeks of traded barbs over the virus. According to state media, Xi told Trump in a phone call on Friday that US-China relations had reached an "important juncture". "Working together brings both sides benefits, fighting hurts both. Cooperation is the only choice," he said. Xi said he hoped the US would take "substantive actions" to improve US-China relations to develop a relationship that is "without conflict and confrontation" but based on "mutual respect and mutually beneficial cooperation." Technical analysis: EUR/USD has been trading downwards today towards the level of 1.0950. The short-term trend is still bullish and the preferarble strategy for the current condition is to buy the dips using the 120/240 minute time-frames. Based on the 4H time-frame the EUR/USD is on the bull flag pattern and the upward trend, which is sign that buyers are still in control. Watch for buying opportunities with the main targets at 1.1090 and 1.1165. MACD oscillator is showing positive reading above the zero and the slow line bullish. Resistance levels are set at the price of 1.1090 and 1.1165, Support levels are set at the price of 1.1050 and 1.1030. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 06:34 AM PDT Corona virus news:
The British prime minister has tested positive for coronavirus The British prime minister Boris Johnson has tested positive for coronavirus and is exhibiting "mild symptoms". In a video posted on Twitter, Johnson confirmed he had developed mild symptoms – "a temperature and persistent cough" – over the last 24 hours. Johnson, 55, said he was now self-isolating and working from home and would continue to lead the national fightback against the virus.The donations platform has already met its original target of raising USD 11,000 to "purchase the core infrastructure and medical equipment" for a medical center "for COVID-19 pre-triage," with any excess funds used to "provide medical staff with the personal protection they need." Technical analysis: Gold has been trading upwards as I expected. The price reached our yesterday's first target at $1.642 but I still see further upside continuation. Watch for buying opportuntiies with the next upward target at the price of $1.698. The breakout of the mini Pitchfork down channel would be good entry signal. MACD oscillator is showing positive reading above the zero and the slow line is flat. Resitance levels are set at the price of $1.642 and $1.698. Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $1.612 and $1.590. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: Traders continue to buy risky assets Posted: 27 Mar 2020 06:13 AM PDT The euro and the pound rose yesterday, even though the situation with the pandemic is not slowing down. As of the moment, US already has 82,404 patients of COVID-19, surpassing China in the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection. Italy, on the other hand, still leads in the number of deaths recorded due to the infection- 8,215. As a result, the risk of extending the quarantine in the US has increased significantly. During a summit yesterday, EU leaders failed to agree on the next steps to be taken to combat the pandemic. It did not only increased the tensions, but also worsened the prospects of the economic recovery. Nevertheless, traders still continued to buy risky assets, in the hopes of a quick profit, so the bullish momentum of the euro yesterday led to an update of fairly large levels of resistance. The pound also increased by more than 4% against the US dollar. However, do not rush to buy the currencies right now. Very soon, the data on the state of the US and EU economies for the month of March will be released, and it will most likely turn out to be terrible. Moreover, the more precise scale of the decline in GDP growth will be clear at the end of the 2nd quarter of this year. Take yesterday's report on the weekly state of the labor market. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of March 15-21 has increased by 3 million, and by to 3.28 million. The sharp increase of layoffs is associated with the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, as most companies temporarily closed their offices due to the quarantine caused by the epidemic. Yesterday, the data on the GDP growth of US in the 4th quarter of 2019 was released, indicating that as a result of the increase in company profits, US GDP in the 4th quarter grew by 2.1% per annum. In total, the US economy grew by 2.3% in 2019. This was positive news, however, the report was ignored by the market, as it no longer played any role in determining the prospects for the future. Given the spread of the coronavirus and the situation that is happening around the world, the US economy is now expected to decline by 1.8% in the 1st quarter of 2020. The manufacturing activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas fell sharply. According to a report, the composite index turned out to be -17 points for March, as compared to its 5 points in February. The decline was due to the decrease in the production of durable and short-term goods. Meanwhile, the US dollar was put under pressure yesterday, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that interest rates need to be kept near zero until there is a recovery in the economy. Moreover, Powell hinted that the central bank is ready to use all its tools to protect the economy. The decision of the Fed to provide loans through a discount window, on the other hand, turned out to be very correct, as over the past week, demand on dollar has almost doubled, reaching the level of 50.77 billion. As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, the sharp increase in the purchases of euro will not be useful with what is expected to come, because in April, the fundamental statistics of the country, with regards to the impact of the virus in the economy, will be revealed. Thus, I recommend that you refrain from opening new long positions, especially at the current highs that were reached this week. For intraday traders, the optimal levels for purchases will be the lows of 1.0960 and 1.0880. Bears can increase their presence in the market after regaining the support of 1.1055, in the expectation of updating the lows mentioned above. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 05:56 AM PDT
Technical analysis: BTC finally did breakout of the multi-day bear flag pattern, which is indication that sellers took control over buyers and that potential upward correction has completed. Watch for selling opportunities if you see the breakout of the support at $6.430. The downward targets are set at the price of $4.412 and $3.800. MACD oscillator is showing bear divergence and the slow line is turned downside, which is sign that sellers ae taking control from buyers. Resistance levels are set at the price of $7.000 and $7.623. Support levels and downward targets are set at the price of $4.412 and $3.800. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 27, 2020 Posted: 27 Mar 2020 05:41 AM PDT Overview: The AUD/USD pair. All invisators are Focusing on Chinese and United States data and coronavirus developments. In the one-hour chart, the pair is also developing far below bearish moving averages, while technical indicators (RSI) consolidate in oversold levels, without signs of an upcoming recovery. But, it should be noted that after the corona crisis ends, AUD/USD is set to rise to reach the level of 0.6137, and turned towards down around the area of 0.6050-0.6010. The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.6137 towards 0.5510. Now, the price is set at 0.6056. THe point of 0.5912 acts as a daily pivot point. The volatility is very high for that the AUD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6007 and 0.5700 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.6007 and 0.6137, which coincides with the 61.8% and 78% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. The price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the AUD/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.5912. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.5912 remains a significant resistance zone. Trading recomnadations: Therefore, a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.5912, sell below 1.59125 with the first targets at 0.5817 and 0.5700 (the double bottom is seen at 0.5510). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Evening review. EURUSD. 03/27/2020. Negative markets outweigh the effect of incentives Posted: 27 Mar 2020 05:07 AM PDT Optimism from huge packages of assistance to markets and the economy - from the Fed, the US Congress - is eroding. The pressure of the coronavirus is not weakening: the United States came first in the world in terms of the number of infected, 85,000 cases. In Europe - Spain had the largest number of deaths for the day, 769. A total of 4,800 deaths in Spain. In Britain, Prime Minister Johnson became infected - while the condition is not serious. In the United States, the situation is difficult in New York; hospitals are completely full. The positive will not be stable until the growth rate of the epidemic decreases. We are waiting for a new wave of decline in the markets. EURUSD: We look forward to a decline. Possible sale from 1.1030. We sell from 1.0635. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The dollar is tired of roller coasters Posted: 27 Mar 2020 05:05 AM PDT Despite the fact that recently we can hear a lot of talk about the violation of economic relations, about the inadequate reaction of markets to macroeconomic statistics and changes in monetary policy, the links between central banks, governments, and stock indices continue to work. An unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus from the Fed and the White House, which is estimated at $6 trillion, cut off the oxygen to the "bears" on the S&P 500 and allowed the US equity market to recoup more than half of its losses. From the levels of record highs, it collapsed by 35%, but then within 3-4 days, it rose by 20%. Like a roller coaster, it did not leave the EUR/USD pair indifferent. When the whole world goes into a recession because of the coronavirus, and stocks are disposed of as toxic assets, there is no better option to save your money than to buy the US dollar. Cash is needed for investors to maintain positions in the securities market, for local governments to close cash gaps, for companies to make timely payments to their partners, and for other States to repay us - denominated debts. Their size has grown since the turn of the century from $2 trillion to $12 trillion. As a result, the collapse of the S&P 500 provoked increased demand for the dollar. Its value, measured using cross-currency swaps, rose rapidly, which pushed up the USD index. Dynamics of cross-currency swaps and the USD index
Agreements on mutual exchange of payment flow between the Fed and 14 central banks of the world, unlimited purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds by the Federal Reserve, which, by the way, expanded the balance of the regulator to more than $5 trillion, and $2 trillion of fiscal stimulus from Donald Trump calmed investors. Stock indices moved north, and interest in the US dollar as the main safe-haven currency began to fall. There were some fears that the terrible statistics on applications for unemployment benefits will cool the ardor of the "bulls" in US stocks, but this did not happen. As a result, the EUR/USD pair, supported by an improvement in global risk appetite, rose above the base of the 10th figure. What's next? In my opinion, the euphoria about a large-scale stimulus will gradually subside. Macroeconomic statistics for the States can become a real nightmare for fans of the US and euro stock indices. Data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and in the service sector from ISM, on employment in the private sector from ADP and on the labor market in the week to April 3 can significantly shake the S&P 500. On the other hand, the market is increasing the number of people who want to buy shares, which growth, as history shows, begins long before the end of the recession. Thus, the market is developing a situation favorable for the development of consolidation in the US stock indices and the EUR/USD pair. The active "Expanding Wedge" pattern, Fibonacci correction levels, and Pivot levels help determine its range. Most likely, we will talk about 1.087-1.116. Rebounding from the lower border will allow traders to buy euros, from the upper - on the contrary, to sell. EUR/USD, the daily chart
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| Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 27, 2020 Posted: 27 Mar 2020 04:29 AM PDT Overview: Coronavirus (COVID-19) - EUR/USD. The Euro currency is struggling coronavirus and US dollar massive impulse. Currently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading around 1.1.000. European motivations may be enough to impact looking forward for the European Union and the United States. The economic growth difference is in favor of the Euro, especially if the US strategy to contain coronavirus prolongs the fight against it The EUR/USD pair recovered for that it rebounded from the bottom of 1.0636 to close at 1.1005 yesterday. Technically, on one-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair is continuing in a bullish market from the supports of 1.0915 and 1.0808. Also, it should be noted that the current price is in a bullish channel. Equally important, the RSI isstillsignalingthat the trend isupward as it is still strong above the moving average (100) since yesterday. Immediate support is seen at 1.0915 which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support sets at the level of 1.0915. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0915. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.0915) with the first target at the level of 1.1087. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break through the first resistance of 1.1087. As a result, the pair will climb towards the double top (1.1230) to test it. On the other hand, stop loss should always be in account, so, it must set the stop loss below the second support of 1.0915. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 04:22 AM PDT To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need: The absence of important fundamental statistics in the first half of the day allowed sellers of the pound to consolidate below the support of 1.2230, which I paid attention to in my morning forecast. This led to a good decline in the GBP/USD almost to the lows of the day, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. However, the bulls began to act more aggressively, not allowing them to reach support in the area of 1.2115. At the moment, buyers of the pound are focused on updating the resistance of 1.2366, where I recommend fixing the profits. With a breakout and consolidation above this range, the growth of GBP/USD can continue to the larger highs of 1.2514 and 1.2605. If the pressure on the pound returns in the second half of the day, then you can return to long positions on a false breakout from the support of 1.2150, or buy immediately on a rebound from the minimum of 1.1985, where the 50-daily moving average passes.
To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need: Sellers coped with the morning task, but did not find support from major players and again released the market. At the moment, it is best to count on new short positions after updating the resistance of 1.2366, provided that a false breakout is formed there, or sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the maximum of 1.2514. An equally important task for the bears will be to reduce and consolidate below the support of 1.2150, which will increase pressure on the pound and return the pair to the low of 1.1985, where I recommend fixing the profits.
Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a high probability of continuing the upward trend. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands If the pair falls, the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.2115 will provide support. Description of indicators
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| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 04:19 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: In the morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1054 and its importance for intraday trading. The 5-minute chart is seen as a breakthrough and consolidation below this range, with a test from bottom to top, led to the formation of a signal to open short positions in the hope of reducing to the minimum area of 1.0957, which sellers are now striving for. In the second half of the day, the bulls should focus on this level, where the formation of a false breakout will lead to an upward correction within the day. If there are no active actions on the part of buyers, it is best to postpone long positions until the test of the minimum of 1.0880. An equally important task for the North American session for buyers will be to return to the resistance of 1.1054, since only after fixing above this area will it be possible to think again about further growth to the highs of 1.1145 and 1.1231, where I recommend fixing the profits.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: Sellers coped with the task of reducing the pair under the support of 1.1054, which I discussed in detail in the morning forecast, which led to a larger sale of the euro. However, at the reached level, the bears are unlikely to stop and their next goal will be larger support of 1.0957, where I recommend fixing the profits. More persistent players will expect the euro to return to the minimum of 1.0880, the test of which will completely cancel out the entire bullish trend observed since the 20th of March. In the scenario of an upward correction of the pair in the second half of the day, you can still return to sales after a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1054, and it is best to open new positions immediately for a rebound in the area of 1.1145.
Signals of indicators: Moving averages Bears have already tested the 30 daily moving average, which currently limits the further downward trend. The next target is the 50 daily average at 1.0957. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands Support is already provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1005, the break of which will lead to a larger decline in the euro. Description of indicators
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| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 03:54 AM PDT EUR / USD On March 26, the EUR / USD pair gained about 150 more basis points and continues to build the proposed wave C with targets located near the 15th figure. If the current wave marking is correct, then the increase in quotes will continue for the designated purpose. However, it is possible that wave C will take the classic five-wave form, so the impulse movement will be interrupted from time to time by the corrective one. On the other hand, an unsuccessful attempt to break the 61.8% Fibonacci level warns about the readiness of the markets to move away from the highs reached. Fundamental component: The news background for the EUR / USD instrument on March 26 was quite important. From economic reports, I can only note data on applications for unemployment benefits for the third week of March, which immediately showed an increase of 3.3 million. Now, almost no one has any doubt that the unemployment rate in the US will grow enormously in March. Thus, the forecast of James Bullard begins to come true, although, probably, all representatives of the Fed would like the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to be mistaken. However, unemployment will most likely reach 10-15% in the near future. I also regret to note that the news regarding the spread of the epidemic is in the first place in the world. Over the past day, America came out on top in the number of diseases, ahead of China with its population of 1.5 billion people. In this way, it is the United States that can now be considered the global focus of coronavirus. And the more people are sick of the United States, the less likely it is that the US economy will not suffer much or begin to recover in the coming months. So far, weighted average forecasts suggest that recovery should be expected no earlier than the second half of the year provided that the epidemic can be curbed before the summer. In the meantime, there are 86,000 COVID-2019 cases and 1300 deaths from the disease in America. Italy is not far behind with 81,000 cases and 8,000 deaths. And then, provided that the epidemic can be curbed before the summer. In the meantime, there are 86,000 COVID-2019 cases and 1,300 deaths from the disease in America. In turn, Italy is not far behind with 81,000 cases and 8,000 deaths. General conclusions and recommendations: The euro-dollar pair presumably continues to build the rising wave C. The entire trend segment, which begins on February 20, takes a horizontal view, and the A-B-C waves can be approximately equal in size. So far, the main option for the development of events is to build an ascending wave C. Thus, you can carefully buy an instrument with Stop Loss orders under the low of wave B. Here, the final goal is 1.1500. GBP / USD On March 25, GBP / USD gained around 270 basis points. Thus, the construction of a new rising wave, presumably as part of a new upward trend section, continues. If this assumption is correct, then the increase in quotes will continue, but the entire trend section, which begins on March 20, should get at least a 3-waveform. Thus, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level may lead to a departure of quotes from the highs reached and the construction of a correctional wave. Meanwhile, a successful attempt will show a willingness to further increase the instrument. Fundamental component: The economic news background for the GBP / USD instrument on Thursday came down again to general news about the spread of the COVID-2019 virus and measures taken by governments of all countries of the world. Of course, I, like you, are more interested in news from America, the European Union and the UK, as it is they that can affect the movement of the euro / dollar and pound / dollar instruments. In the UK, the virus continues to spread as easily as in other countries, despite the "hard" quarantine. It's just that it came to Britain a little later, so the number of cases here is not too large. At the same time, this is already 12,000. Scientists also note that there can be many more cases in reality. And this applies not only to Britain, but also to the whole world. General conclusions and recommendations: The pound-dollar instrument has also supposedly completed the construction of the downward set of waves and the last wave E. Thus, now, you can buy the pound sterling based on the construction of a new upward set of waves with targets located near the 25th figure and with Stop Loss orders under the low of wave E. The instrument can also begin to build a correctional wave already today or Monday. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis for EUR/GBP on March 27, 2020 Posted: 27 Mar 2020 03:04 AM PDT Hello, traders! Often on Fridays, I analyze the most interesting cross-rates, one of which I consider to be EUR/GBP. However, before going to the description of the technical picture of this cross, let's briefly talk about some events that affected the price dynamics of the euro/pound. As it became known, the leaders of the European Union failed to come to a decision on further measures to counter the new type of coronavirus. The main reason was the lack of finding a compromise on debt issuance. Economic growth in the eurozone is rapidly falling, and experts' forecasts are quite negative. Against this background, the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated its readiness to take all necessary and possible measures to save the economy from the consequences of COVID-19. In particular, the quantitative easing (QE) program may be significantly increased, presumably by 250 billion euros. We are not talking about switching the main interest rate to negative territory yet. Well, let's look at the EUR/GBP charts. There are some very interesting moments, and there is something to see. Weekly
In the last review of this cross, I paid attention to the rather long upper shadow of the previous candle and assumed that this does not pass without a trace. Trading of the current five-day period opened with a bearish gap, after which the euro bulls tried to correct the situation and resume the rise of the quote. The gap was filled and even rose to the level of 0.9387, but the players did not praise for more forces to increase, and the course turned to decline. At the moment of writing, the current weekly candle looks like a reversal pattern "Harami", that is, it is located inside the body of the previous large white candle. If everything ends this way, there will be a signal to turn the pair in the south direction. In this case, the nearest target will be the upper border of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which runs at 0.8980. Do not forget about the significant psychological and technical level of 0.9000, which can also provide support and influence the change of the current downward dynamics. In general, judging by the weekly timeframe, there is a high probability of a cross reversal, but it is worth waiting for the final formation of the current weekly candle. Daily
But on the daily chart, with a high probability, you can already state the reversal of the euro/pound. It all started with a candle that appeared at the end of trading on March 19. The bulls' attempts to correct the situation on the instrument were limited to the level of 0.9387, after which the bears took the initiative and pushed the quote lower and lower. At the time of writing, the euro/pound is trading near 0.9017. If the decline continues, the pair may fall to the area of 0.8917, where the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator passes. However, now the main task for the bears is to break the support of 0.8995. Only after the fact of a true breakdown of this level will the road to the Kijun line open. Technically, everything is still going through the adjustment of the EUR/GBP cross rate. This can be seen by the stretched grid of the Fibonacci tool on the rise of 0.8281-0.9498. As you can see, the euro/pound is trading near the correction level of 38.2 Fibo from the indicated growth. Conclusions and recommendations for EUR/GBP: Since the weekly trading has not yet been completed, it is too early to draw unambiguous conclusions about whether this is a reversal or a change in the trend. As for me, the highest probability of a reversal is seen. According to trading ideas, at the time of completion of the article, options for both purchases and sales are still relevant. I suggest considering buying if a reversal bullish candle (or candles) appears above the support level of 0.8995 on the 4-hour or hourly charts. For sales, a short-term rise to the area of 0.9195 looks good, where the 50 simple moving average on the H4 chart passes. Earlier sales can be tried on a rebound to the area of 0.9120-0.9140. For those who trade at the breakout levels, you can try to sell at the breakout support of 0.8995 or after the actual breakout, on a pullback to this level. Have a nice weekend! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. Euro's victory: dollar's comeback is just around the corner Posted: 27 Mar 2020 02:44 AM PDT
The S&P 500, inspired by large-scale monetary measures by the Fed and fiscal incentives from the White House, soared 20% from the March bottom, pushing up EUR/USD. After the break through of the resistance level at 1.084, the main currency pair rose by 2.5 figures. The bears of the euro are full of optimism, which is seriously counting on the fact that the fashion of the dollar as the main currency of refuge has remained in the past, but isn't it too early? In anticipation of the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States in March, there were fears that weak statistics would discourage investors from buying shares. However, the reaction of the US stock market to an increase to a historic high of 3.28 million demonstrated that this did not stop the bulls. Moreover, the growth of US stock indices was not the only reason for the EUR / USD rally. A large-scale monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve led to the fact that the balance of the American Central Bank exceeded $ 5 trillion for the first time in its history. Over the week of March 25, the indicator expanded by $ 586 million, to $ 5,250 billion. In the post-crisis times of 2009-2011, the outstripping dynamics of the American indicator over the European one acted as a powerful impulse of the growth of the main currency pair.
At the same time, support for the single European currency was also provided by the ECB's decision to change the rules. Previously, in the framework of QE, the regulator was not supposed to buy more than 33% of the total debt of the issuing state, but in the context of the coronavirus epidemic, it became possible to use a selective approach. The eurozone countries that are the most affected by the epidemic are forced to untie money bags, and if the cost of servicing their obligations is not reduced, the probability of a new debt crisis in the region will increase. Therefore, the decision of the ECB chairman Christine Lagarde and her colleagues favorably affected the yield of Old World bonds and became another trump card in the hands of the bulls on EUR / USD. The ECB's agreement with the Fed on the mutual exchange of payment flows, cheap liquidity from the European regulator, as well as a decrease in demand for the dollar as the main safe haven asset contributed to the growth of three-month cross-currency swaps in EUR / USD to record highs. Interest in the euro in terms of excess liquidity from the Fed turned out to be stronger than in the dollar. Therefore, do not be surprised at the rise of the main currency pair above the level of 1.10. Meanwhile, the United States becoming a leader in the number of coronavirus infected people may make investors doubt that the current crisis is painful, but not for long. Therefore, it is likely that the EUR / USD pair will soon begin to show consolidation from current levels. In addition, the economic damage caused by the Eurozone coronavirus can turn out to be much more serious than in other regions. The USD index declined five consecutive days after it strengthened for seven of the eight previous days (a total of 8.5%). Perhaps, the dollar has come to think about returning to the market. The dollar has already adjusted his previous move by 2.3% and this suggests that profit taking should slow down. Given how aggressive the collapse of the longest bull market in history has ended, the dollar will quickly regain the status of an asset in a safe haven in the event of a renewed fall in stock indices. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trader's diary for March 27, 2020. EURUSD. A new fall in markets Posted: 27 Mar 2020 02:21 AM PDT
Markets grew strongly for three days - US indices, euro, and pound. This growth is due is to the huge infusions already made by the Fed and partly by the ECB and the $2 trillion aid package which was already approved by the Congress. However, injecting money is only a temporary solution to the problem and not the medicine that can stop the epidemic and cure the economy. Next week, the first March reports on the US economy will come out which is seemingly to be terrible, judging by the unemployment report yesterday, March 26, where there is an increase in applications for benefits of around 3.28 million in just a week. Coronavirus: The United States is sadly leading with the number of infected cases with approximately 85,800. Russia, on the other hand, has already reached to 1,036 reported cases with a growth of 25% per day. The center of which is in Moscow, where on morning of March 27, the number of cases went to 700 from a yesterday count of 546. That is an increase of 30% in just a day. In Italy, the number of cases already spun to 80, 600 cases, while Spain has already noted 57, 800 cases, and Germany with 47, 400. While the growth rate in the most important foci does not drop significantly below 10% per day, in the USA, Italy, Spain, and Germany, all market growth can be eaten swiftly. EURUSD: Sell from 1.0635. Possible purchases from 1.1090. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Overview and trading ideas for AUD/USD on March 27, 2020 Posted: 27 Mar 2020 02:17 AM PDT The US dollar has turned from yesterday's favorite into an outsider. Good day, colleagues! This week, the interesting and much-loved AUD/USD pair has not yet been considered. I consider it necessary to fill this gap. Since there were no macroeconomic statistics from Australia this week, we will pay full attention to events from the US. After all, the US dollar will remain the main currency on the Forex market. If you go back to yesterday's statistics from the United States, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits last week has increased significantly, which is not surprising in the context of the rampant COVID-19, and yet... Experts expected that the number of applicants will grow to one million, but even the most ambitious forecasts were not fulfilled. The actual figure was at the level of 3 million 283 thousand applications for unemployment benefits. This is the highest figure since the 60s of the last century! You can only imagine how terrifying the official data on the US labor market will be, which will be released next Friday. It's all the fault of the damned coronavirus, which affects more and more people on different continents and in different countries. Despite the fact that one week in the current situation is a fairly long time, it is unlikely that the situation regarding the pandemic will change dramatically. Many experts believe that the peak of the epidemic will come only in April, and that is not a fact. Against this background, the US dollar has turned from yesterday's favorite into an outsider and is losing across the entire spectrum of the currency market. Weekly
The weekly chart of the AUD/USD currency pair shows the formation of the Harami reversal model. The current five-day trading opened slightly higher than the closing price of the previous week's trading. If the current candle is inside the body of the previous one, it will become a reversal pattern. However, the Harami model often requires confirmation, so you should not rush to specific conclusions. This is still just a guess. In addition, over the next weekend, events may occur that will affect the change in market sentiment, and Monday's trading may open with a gap in one direction or another. In the meantime, judging by the "week", the pair has every chance of a reversal or a continuation of the corrective pullback. In the second scenario, the following possible growth targets will be the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which runs at 0.6165. The farther correction target is Kijun, located at 0.6271. However, the price is still far from the last. I believe that the minimum task for the bulls on the "Aussie" will be to close the current five-day trading above the important psychological and technical level of 0.6000. Daily
On the daily chart, the pair corrected to 38.2 Fibo from the fall of 0.7032-0.5511, then rested on the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, meeting strong resistance near it. In my opinion, much will depend on the formation of today's candle. If it is executed as a reversal model, we can assume that the correction of the Australian dollar has come to an end and AUD/USD will resume its downward dynamics. Conclusion and recommendations: At the moment, in the context of a large-scale weakening of the US dollar, it is difficult to determine whether it is a trend change or a correction of the US currency to its previous strengthening. In such circumstances, it is not easy to give specific trade recommendations, since there is still no clear idea about the current weakening of the US currency. If you make a forecast, I will venture to suggest a reversal of the upward trend of the US dollar. The fundamental reasons will be a significant drawdown in the labor market caused by COVID-19, and the technical ones will be the candlestick signals that will appear at the end of the current week. For those who definitely want to open new positions on AUS/USD today, I can suggest considering buying the "Aussie" after a decline to the key level of 0.6000. Sales can be aggressive and risky to try with the current prices (0.6063), it's less risky to wait for a rise to the area of 0.6160-0.6200 and when reversal candles appear on the daily, 4-hour or hourly charts, open short positions on AUD/USD. Good luck! The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 02:05 AM PDT EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On March 26, the euro currency continued to grow. The upward trend line makes it exactly clear what is the mood of most traders now - "bullish". Thus, I can say with confidence that the euro continues to recover against the dollar and I believe it is correct. The US dollar has grown too much in the past month. The recent actions of the Federal Reserve and the government, which have decided to provide unprecedented amounts of assistance to the US economy, can not but mean that everything is not very good in the US right now. Over the past day, the country also came out on top in the world for coronavirus diseases. Thus, if earlier traders looked favorably at the dollar, now they are afraid to store their assets in it. Fixing the pair's exchange rate under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the fall. EUR/USD – 4H.
According to the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1065) on the new grid of Fibo levels. So, at the moment, I can say that the overall correction against the strong growth of the dollar is exactly 50%. Fibo can retreat from this level with a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some decline in the direction of correctional levels of 38.2% (1.0964) and 23.6% (1.0840). At the same time, the mood due to the trend line on the lowest chart remains "bullish". Fixing the exchange rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective levels of 61.8% (1.1167) and 76.4% (1.1294). No indicator has any pending divergences on March 27. EUR/USD – Daily.
As seen on the daily chart, the picture for the EUR/USD pair is identical to the picture on the 4-hour chart. The same grid of Fibo levels. However, what is happening now in the market is more clearly visible on the daily chart. The rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow the euro/dollar pair to perform a downward turn and start the process of falling. In principle, the pair has now returned to the levels at which it was trading before the global pandemic was announced. However, it is too early to talk about calming traders, the pair's activity remains very high, and accordingly, there is a panic mood among traders. EUR/USD – Weekly.
The weekly chart also continues the growth process. At the moment, the breakdown of the lower line of the "narrowing triangle" looks false. If today does not follow the collapse of quotes, then I will again consider the goal of 1.1600 for purchases of the euro currency in the future. Fixing quotes under the upward trend line will work in favor of the US currency and the pair's fall will resume. Overview of fundamentals: On March 26, the US released a report on GDP. The main indicator of the economy in the fourth quarter was 2.1%, as expected by traders. But the main surprise was waiting for the players a little later. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in one week was 3.3 million applications. This is an absolute anti-record for the past few decades. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: US - change in the level of expenditure of the population (14:30 GMT). US - change in the level of income of the population (14:30 GMT). US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (16:00 GMT). On March 27, there will be no important economic reports in either the US or Europe. It is unlikely that traders at this time will work out reports on changes in personal income or spending of Americans. The rate of spread of the epidemic in the United States is much more important now. COT report (Commitments of Traders):
A new COT report will be released this afternoon. I expect that it will reflect a reduction in the total number of short contracts and an increase in long. In the past three weeks, speculators have been getting rid of short contracts, not believing that the dollar will grow again. If this trend continues, the prospects for growth of the euro currency will also continue. Hedgers in recent weeks have been increasing their short-term contracts for the euro. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: The situation for the EUR/USD pair is a bit confusing. I recommend staying in purchases until the quotes close below the trend line on the hourly chart. The goals are 1.1167 and 1.1294. The rebound of quotes on the 4-hour chart from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow you to open sales of the euro currency, but I would recommend that you wait for the closing under the trend line on the hourly chart as confirmation of this signal. The goals are 1.0964 and 1.0840. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Mar 2020 02:05 AM PDT GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the corrective level of 323.6% (1.1665), performed a reversal in favor of the British currency and secured over the side corridor. Thus, the mood of most traders changed to "bullish", and I immediately built an upward trend corridor that supports this mood. At the moment, on the morning of March 27, the pair's quotes fulfilled the level of 200.0% (1.2251). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow you to count on a slight fall in the direction of the lower line of the corridor. I believe that only the closing of the pound/dollar pair under the corridor will restore confidence to bear traders. GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the new grid of Fibo levels shows a clear development of the level of 50.0% (1.2303). Thus, the euro worked out the level of 50.0% from the last fall, and the British also worked it out. Now both euro currencies can start falling quotes, which will be further supported by the information background, or vice versa. Thus, now it is best to pay attention to the hourly chart, where there is a clear trend corridor. None of the indicators is showing emerging divergence today. Fixing the pair's rate above the level of 50.0% will work in favor of continuing growth. GBP/USD – Daily.
As seen on the daily chart, the picture remains the most interesting. The GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1538), continues the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2327). The rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the US currency and some fall of the pair in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1959). The COVID-2019 virus epidemic is spreading around the world and is the fastest in America. This factor puts pressure on the US currency, as it means extremely pessimistic prospects for the US economy. In addition, yesterday it became known that the number of applications for unemployment in America for the week of March 13-20 was more than 3 million. And this is just the beginning. In the week of March 21-28, there may be no less. But it is also worth waiting for data on unemployment (and other indicators) in the UK and the European Union. It is likely that the situation there is no better. GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines. Overview of fundamentals: On Thursday, the UK released a report on retail trade in February. All the figures in this report were worse than traders' expectations, but the British pound still continued to grow, as the factors driving the market are now different. Today, the House of Representatives must approve a $2 trillion package of assistance to the American economy, which will then have to be signed by Trump. The economic calendar for the US and the UK: US - change in the level of expenditure of the population (14:30 GMT). US - change in the level of income of the population (14:30 GMT). US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (16:00 GMT). Today, none of the planned reports will attract the attention of traders. Thus, the main topic will remain the COVID-2019 virus in the United States, and the possible actions of Donald Trump and his administration in countering its spread. COT report (Commitments of Traders):
The latest COT report showed no major changes in the number of contracts between speculators and hedge companies. The total number of long and short contracts has decreased slightly, but remains almost equal. The "Commercial" group immediately dropped 30,000 short contracts and 12,000 long contracts at once. A group of speculators has increased 9,000 short-contracts. Thus, speculators believe that the pound can resume the process of falling, but speculators who trade GBP/USD are now few and in their hands are concentrated in half the number of contracts than in the hands of large companies that hedge their currency risks the market. I assume that the British pound will continue to grow against the backdrop of serious stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and the US government, as well as the developing epidemic in America. The new COT report, which will be available today, will show how much the mood of major players has changed over the past week. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders: The key graphical construction now is the channel on the hourly chart. Thus, the rejection of quotes from its upper line or the level of 50.0% on the 4-hour chart will allow the pair to sell with the targets of 1.2095 and 1.2055. At the same time, larger and longer-term sales will only be possible after the pair closes under the corridor on the hourly chart. There can only be one buy signal today – a bounce from the 38.2% level on the 4-hour chart. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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