Drink Up This Time-Sensitive Opportunity

 

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Drink Up This Time-Sensitive Opportunity

 

What's the one thing most adults have in common, no matter where in the world they live?

Answer – the desire to get a buzz on every once in a while.

That's been the case ever since some caveman accidentally discovered the mind-altering wonders of fermented beverages.

Now, untold thousands of years later, that desire is not only as strong as ever, it's growing rapidly.

According to University of Utah Health, the sale of alcoholic beverages in the U.S. has increased 55% compared to this time last year.

A popular theory about this jump is that the stress of having to shelter at home, coupled with job losses and other pandemic-related fallout, has driven people to drink more.

That's music to the ears of companies involved in the import, sale and distribution of alcoholic beverages.

However, like most stocks, public companies in the beverage business got creamed initially after the pandemic-caused economic shutdowns.

But now most of these companies are rebounding with a vengeance.

And I expect, by and large, they will recapture the higher stock prices they enjoyed before the coronavirus locked down the world economy in March.

So how can you profit from this rebound?

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I'd consider taking a close look at the two biggest public companies in this space, both of which should continue moving up.

They are Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) and Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO), whose market caps are $36 billion and $80.74 billion, respectively.

Even though Diageo is much bigger than Constellation, I don't think it's the better stock for profiting from the current rise in alcohol consumption.

The main reason is Constellation is moving aggressively to cash in on the future of alcohol purchasing – direct-to-consumer sales.

To that end, on July 1st it bought Empathy Wines, a direct-to-consumer brand, for an undisclosed sum.

The deal comes on the heels of Constellation's sale of 30 wine brands and 6 wineries to E.J. Gallo for $1.1 billion.

It sold these assets because they represented low- to mid-priced wines, which the company wants to reduce its reliance on.

Instead, it plans to focus on higher-priced wines and direct-to-consumer sales.

Empathy helps both of these efforts because its bottles sell for $20 and up, and the company has a legion of loyal customers to sell directly to.

Many of those customers come from the ranks of the Empathy's 54,000 Instagram followers.

In turn, these people come from 10 million Instagram and Twitter followers of the man who sold Empathy Wines to Constellation – well-known entrepreneur, wine expert and media personality Gary Vaynerchuk.

Vaynerchuk will also serve as a marketing consultant to help Constellation scale Empathy's direct-to-consumer model across the entire Constellation wine and spirits platform.

Constellation President Robert Hanson believes expanding direct-to-consumer sales is the key to major growth for his company (and for what it's worth, I agree).

In a November 2019 interview with Yahoo Finance, he said direct-to-consumer wine purchases online have more than doubled in the wake of the coronavirus.

He also said he expects direct-to-consumer wine purchases to grow twice as fast as sales through the general market.

If he's right, Constellation should blow past its 2020 high.

Another reason I like the company is because it's on an impressive roll.  According to Neilson, total dollar sales of wines sold by Constellation are up 29.3% year-over-year for the period from March 7 through June 13.

Neilson's data also shows total alcohol sales for Constellation were up 26% during that same time span.

Unsurprisingly, those sales have translated into higher earnings per share (EPS).

For Q2 2020, Constellation came out with earnings that beat estimates by 13.3% -- $2.30 vs. $2.03.

This was the fourth quarter in a row that the company surpassed consensus EPS.

I see this trend continuing, which – at the least – should propel Constellation's stock back to its pre-pandemic price of $207.87 (Feb. 20).

Right now the stock sits at $182.42 (the close of July 7).

A play I like is to purchase the Jan 2021 160 Strike Call.

Right now the mean bid/ask price is 32.45.

If the stock rises to its pre-pandemic price of $207.87 within the next month, the option would be worth at least 50.10 – a 54.4% gain.

I'd drink to that, wouldn't you?

I'd also recommend that you mark your calendar for an upcoming FREE investing event with Chris Rowe.

It's all about "resetting" your retirement so you can take advantge of all this market volatility.

Seating is limited, so you should go here now and lock down a free seat.

That's it for now.

To your financial health,

Doug Fogel
Editor, True Market Insiders


 

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