NFP Friday 04.09.2020. Are you ready to trade?


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What to expect from NFP release?

Hello, Trader FX

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (NFP), which comes out this Friday on 04.09.2020, is positive on the consensus forecast, but less than last month. The unemployment rate in the United States is gradually declining, which has a positive impact on the economy as a whole. But the Fed continues to pursue ultra-soft stimulus policies. And on Thursday, the Central Bank decided to change its approach to inflation targeting. It may indicate that the U.S. economy is still deep in the negative zone, as evidenced by the U.S. GDP report last week. All these factors could later have a negative impact on the unemployment rate.


Non-Farm Payrolls Employment

Last data: 1763 K
Consensus Forecast: 1400 K
Non-Farm employment remains small but stable. It may indicate that the recession in the U.S. economy has passed its peak and that the economic system is slowly starting to recover, as evidenced by the reopening of companies and the return of workers to their places. 

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Last data: 0.2%
Consensus forecast: -
This indicator shows the change in the average hourly wage level for major industries, except agriculture. 

Unemployment Rate

Past data: 10.2%
Consensus forecast: 9.8%
The previous data on the unemployment rate came out better than the consensus forecast, which was 10.5%, the fact was 10.2%. It shows a steady, gradual decline in the U.S. unemployment rate, which has a positive impact on the U.S. economy. The new consensus forecast also indicates that the unemployment rate is declining, and the U.S. economy is gradually improving.



Keep in mind:
  • During the NFP announcement, expect high volatility, especially across USD pairs.
  • Market sentiment can really affect currency movements. What traders expect from the report has as much impact
    as the actual released data, if not greater.
  • A higher figure than the one registered during the previous month signifies an improvement in employment numbers. This, as well as the release of a higher-than-expected figure, means an increase in the number of jobs created and are positive for both the U.S. economy and the dollar.
  • A lower figure than the one registered during the previous month, as well as a lower-than-expected figure, usually have a negative impact on the dollar as they demonstrate a drop in employment numbers.
  • Remember that the sudden spike observed across the charts of many currency pairs upon the release of the NFPs
    is usually followed by a period during which the market tries
    to recover and return to its initial price levels.


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