| Editor’s Note: The New Site is Live! Our new website for Gilder’s Daily Prophecy is now live. You can check it out now by going to GildersDailyProphecy.com. Just remember that our emails will now be coming from a different domain as well. So if you haven’t done so yet, please whitelist our new address by following the instructions here. If you have any questions, please reach out to us at GildersDailyProphecy@threefounderspublishing.com. It's Time to Shift the Economy Back into Gear Dear Daily Prophecy Reader, The last few months have seen major advances for our COSM architecture for internet security and prosperity. Now under the leadership of former Verizon executive and Attorney General Bill Barr, the Administration is at last beginning to respond to the giant opportunity. The US government may even come to recognize that our national security is not enhanced by relentlessly undermining our technology sector. Currently, we are restricting markets of our capital equipment paladins, such as Applied Materials. Thus, barring our chip leader Intel from its fastest growing markets, and attacking as “monopolies” our tech leaders (such as Google and Amazon), which are falling behind competitors in China. After we close everything down, we then fecklessly blame Beijing. We are harassing allies such as Great Britain that use gear from our fanciful Commerce Department “entities list” — the same list that once focused on nuclear proliferation and bio war and now bans routers, switches, and facial recognition equipment. Technology depends on communications systems that improve in accordance with Metcalfe’s Law, by the square of the number of compatibly linked devices. All economies benefit from extending the learning curves of innovations, making everything faster, cheaper, and better with every doubling of total units sold. A Failed Paradigm Therefore, Americans who understand telecom and microchips are baffled by the current policy of banning, bilking and barring Huawei — one of the world’s leading users of US chips and architectures, and prime promoter of global Metcalfe advances and learning curves. Representative of the widespread devastation of supply chains, the US manufacturing star Flex (formerly Flextronics) has lost at least a billion dollars’ worth of business from the Huawei ban. Not to mention Intel, which may eventually lose as much as $11 billion. The anti-China policy is particularly destructive at a time when China’s use of semiconductors is soaring (expected to reach $103.1 billion this year). That’s a 15.8% increase compared with 2019, according to experts at the current China 2020 integrated circuit exposition in Shanghai. The result is to weaken the US microchip economy — both design and capital equipment — by estranging it from all the countries and companies currently using Chinese-made gear. Reduced in the process is the dominance of US system architectures, microprocessor instruction sets, capital equipment, software languages, and industry standards. Delusional is the US’ explanation of “national security” concerns, as if hackers care who makes these systems. Hackers deal with whatever combination of equipment might be deployed. For decades, hackers and spies have been infiltrating US networks, designed and made with US chips and software, and come away with ever more billions of items of private information and government secrets. The key sign of a failed paradigm is the more you spend on it, the worse the results. By this standard, our vastly expanded spending on internet security is the epitome of a failed paradigm. |
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