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What to expect from NFP release?
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Hello, Trader FX The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (NFP), which comes out this Friday on 02.10.2020, is almost a record high on the consensus forecast. It will have a positive impact on the U.S. economy in the foreseeable future. The growth of this indicator is a vital puzzle in the financial ecosystem of the United States, which has a significant impact on the change in the Fed's rhetoric about tightening monetary policy. Of course, this will not happen at the next Central Bank meeting, but it will play a fundamental role in the long term. The U.S. unemployment rate is rising slowly but steadily, and every publication of the data, contrary to pessimistic consensus forecasts, is coming out positive. But this time, analysts concurred that the unemployment rate coming out this Friday would be 8.2%, indicating the right stimulus from the Fed, and the country's gradual exit from recession. |
Non-Farm Payrolls Employment
Last data: 1.371 K
Consensus Forecast: 850 K
The consensus forecast for non-agricultural employment breaks all records of recent years. It can be explained by the fact that people are gradually coming to work, and the U.S. economy is showing a strong recovery. U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY
Last data: 0.4%
Consensus forecast: 0.2%
This indicator shows the change in the average hourly wage level for major industries, except agriculture.
Unemployment Rate
Past data: 8.4%
Consensus forecast: 8.2%
During five months, analysts' opinions on the unemployment rate were negative. But the publication of data said the opposite. This month's consensus forecast shows a better performance than the previous one, which suggests that by studying the fundamental factors, micro and macroeconomic processes, analysts conclude that the state apparatus is successfully coping with the process of withdrawal of the country from recession. |
Keep in mind: - During the NFP announcement, expect high volatility, especially across USD pairs.
- Market sentiment can really affect currency movements. What traders expect from the report has as much impact
as the actual released data, if not greater.
- A higher figure than the one registered during the previous month signifies an improvement in employment numbers. This, as well as the release of a higher-than-expected figure, means an increase in the number of jobs created and are positive for both the U.S. economy and the dollar.
- A lower figure than the one registered during the previous month, as well as a lower-than-expected figure, usually have a negative impact on the dollar as they demonstrate a drop in employment numbers.
- Remember that the sudden spike observed across the charts of many currency pairs upon the release of the NFPs
is usually followed by a period during which the market tries
to recover and return to its initial price levels.
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| Risk Warning:Forex and CFD trading carry a high degree of risk. As such they may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with CFD trading before deciding to trade. Investors may choose to seek independent advice and should not risk more than they are prepared to lose. |
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