Forex analysis review |
- USDCAD follows our strategy after the rejection at 1.3150.
- EURUSD at new weekly highs
- Gold price breaks $1,800
- Evening review of EUR/USD for November 27, 2020. Euro's last surge
- November 27, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
- GBP/USD Hot Forecast for 27 November
- November 27, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- November 27, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- EUR/USD: EUR edges higher on vaccine hopes
- Trading Signal for EUR/USD for November 27 - 30, 2020: DoJi Candle
- GOLD Forecast for 27 November
- BTC analysis for November 27,.2020 - Potential for the downside continuation towards the $15.100
- Analysis of Gold for November 27,.2020 - Potential for the downside rotation towards $1.800 and $1.786
- What to expect from oil quotes in the near future
- EUR/USD analysis for November 27 2020 - Breakout of the rising channel and potential for the downside rotation towards 1.1885
- Silver Extends Correction!
- Stock markets in Asia froze in anticipation of news on coronavirus vaccine, while European indexes are mostly growing
- Dollar's continued fall strengthens EUR/USD
- GOLD Setting Up A Sell-Off
- EUR/USD. Hungarian-Polish alliance gains strength, but pair grows thanks to weak dollar
- EUR/USD: plan for the American session on November 27 (analysis of morning deals)
- EUR/USD Facing Tough Resistance
- Daily Video Analysis: AUDUSD facing bullish pressure, potential for further rise!
- Cost of oil are declining again
- Bitcoin has fallen by 13%. Is it a burst bubble or just noise against the background of a "bullish" trend?
| USDCAD follows our strategy after the rejection at 1.3150. Posted: 27 Nov 2020 08:31 AM PST In our last USDCAD analysis we noted that the rejection and bearish reversal at the 1.3150-1.3130 area would lead to another pull back towards 1.30-1.29 and lower. Price got rejected at the back test of the broken trend line support and is now making new lower lows.
Green line- support Blue line - bullish divergence USDCAD is trading again below 1.30 making new lower lows. The RSI doesn't follow and is instead providing us a bullish divergence. As we explained before, this is not a reversal signal, but just a warning. However if price continues lower we might see this divergence get canceled. So unless price confirms a reversal we remain bearish. In our last analysis we noted that as long as price is below 1.3150 we remain bearish. Our stop is lowered to 1.310 and if price reaches 1.29 we could lower stop to 1.30. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 08:26 AM PST EURUSD bulls have managed this week to defend 1.18 and they are back stronger pushing price above 1.19. On a weekly basis EURUSD is at new closing highs as price is about to end the week higher than the previous higher close back in August.
Red line resistance EURUSD has made a double bottom at 1.16 and is making higher highs and higher lows since then. Support is found at the green trend line at 1.1740, but any move below this week's low at 1.18 would be a topping sign and something bulls would like to avoid. Our short-term target for EURUSD is found at 1.22 in order to complete the entire upward wave from March lows at 1.06. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 08:21 AM PST Gold is trading below $1,800 and today it made a new lower low at $1,773. In our latest Gold analysis when price was trading near $1,810-20 resistance area by the bearish channel, we noted the bearish flag pattern and that we expect Gold price to move to new lows towards $1,770-50. The upper side of the target range has been reached today.
Gold price is moving lower in a textbook style as price gets rejected at the upper channel boundary resistance and breaks lower towards $1,770. Trend is clearly bearish and no sign of reversal yet. Gold price will most probably continue lower. A bounce towards $1,800 is not out of the question but it would not be something we would bet on. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Evening review of EUR/USD for November 27, 2020. Euro's last surge Posted: 27 Nov 2020 07:30 AM PST The euro/dollar pair is showing its last rise. If the euro does not break the level of 1.1940 today, it will surely fall on Monday. Buy positions could be opened from the level of 1.1906 with the stop at 1.1880. Sell positions could be initiated from the level of 1.1800 with the stop at 1.1925. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| November 27, 2020 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations. Posted: 27 Nov 2020 07:03 AM PST
In October, Two opportunities for SELL Entries were offered upon the recent upside movement towards 1.1880-1.1900. All target levels were achieved. However, after such downside movement, evident signs of bullish reversal were demonstrated around the depicted price levels of 1.1600. Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a significant BUYING Pattern after the recent upside breakout above the depicted price zone (1.1750-1.1780) was achieved. As mentioned in the previous article, the pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1920 which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1800 which constituted a prominent KEY-Zone for the EUR/USD pair. Recently, the price zone around 1.1840 was mentioned as a prominent KeyZone to be watched for Price Action. Since then, the pair has been failing to breakthrough below it. That's why, another upside movement is being expressed towards 1.1930-1.1960 where price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection. Moreover, Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.1840 is needed to turn the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhance a quick bearish decline towards 1.1750. Trade Recommendations :- Currently, the price zone around 1.1930-1.1960 ( backside of the broken trendline ) stand as significant Resistance-Zone to offer a valid SELL Entry. Exit level should be placed above 1.1980 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD Hot Forecast for 27 November Posted: 27 Nov 2020 06:37 AM PST GBP/USD is dipping below the bullish ascending triangle. The breakdown is yet to be confirmed, but upside momentum on the four-hour charge is already fading.
The resistance zone of 1.3390/1.3400 continued to hold on Thursday and Friday as price remains in consolidation mode. The resistance resistance caused a breaking of the supporting ascending trend line. By the middle of Friday's trading hours, the currency exchange rate had retreated below the support of technical levels that were located from 1.334 to 1.336 In the near-term future, the rate is expected to test the support of the 1.33 level. If breakout below 1.33 round figure mark is seen, the trend reversal from MACD bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart is confirmed. This would probably ignite an impulsive downside push back towards 1.320 region mark. Support awaits at 1.3320, which was a double-top. In the case of these support levels holding, the price would retrace up and test the 1.334 resistance levels. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| November 27, 2020 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 27 Nov 2020 06:29 AM PST
Intraday traders should have noticed the recent bearish closure below 1.1700. This indicated bearish domination for the market on the short-term. However, the EURUSD pair has failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum below 1.1625 (38% Fibonacci Level). Instead, another bullish breakout was being demonstrated towards 1.1870 which corresponded to 76% Fibonacci Level. As mentioned in previous articles, the price zone of 1.1870-1.1900 stood as a solid SUPPLY Zone corresponding to the backside of the broken channel. Moreover, the recent bearish H4 candlestick closure below 1.1770 was mentioned in previous articles to indicate a valid short-term SELL Signal. All bearish targets were already reached at 1.1700 and 1.1630 where the current bullish recovery was initiated. The current bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1900-.1930 is supposed to be considered for signs of bearish rejection and another valid SELL Entry. S/L should be placed just above 1.1980. Bearish closure and persistence below 1.1860 (76.4% Fibonacci Level) and 1.1777 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) is needed to enhance further bearish decline at least towards 1.1630. Otherwise, the EURUSD pair remains trapped between the previous key levels (1.1770 and 1.1950) until breakout occurs in either directions The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| November 27, 2020 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 27 Nov 2020 06:25 AM PST
Back in August, Bullish Breakout above the price zone of 1.3300 was achieved. This was supposed to allow bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.3400 as a final projection target for the suggested pattern. However, the GBP/USD pair failed to do so. Instead, another bearish movement was targeting the price level of 1.2840 and 1.2780 where bullish SUPPORT existed allowing another bullish movement initially towards 1.3000 which failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum. That's why, the recent bullish breakout above 1.3000 has enabled further bullish advancement towards 1.3250-1.3270 where the upper limit of the new movement channel came to meet the GBP/USD pair. Further bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.3380-1.3400 where the pair looks overbought after failure of the previous price zone to offer sufficient bearish pressure on the pair. Upon the recent bullish pullback, price action should be watched around the price levels of (1.3380-1.3400) for signs of bearish pressure as a valid SELL Entry could be offered. Initial bearish target would be located at 1.3300 and 1.3250. While S/L should be placed above 1.3450. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: EUR edges higher on vaccine hopes Posted: 27 Nov 2020 06:23 AM PST The US currency has been losing ground for the fourth trading session in a row against its major competitors and it is likely to end the month with heavy losses. Investors continue to closely monitor the situation surrounding vaccines against COVID-19. Optimism over the upcoming vaccination has significantly contributed to the recent rally in stock indices. Besides, traders remain focused on the political situation in Washington, where there is a smooth transition of power from Republicans to Democrats. The macroeconomic calendar is bereft of any important releases due to the holidays in the United States. However, yesterday Donald Trump reiterated his claims of massive voter fraud. At the same time, Trump said that he would leave White House if electoral college votes for his rival Joe Biden. In addition, investor sentiment remained under pressure following the minutes of the Fed's and ECB's meetings, published earlier this week. Now market participants are awaiting new measures to support the EU and the US economies suffering from the coronavirus pandemic. The US currency is still weak. Moreover, it may even hit an annual low in the area of 91.70 in the near term. Strong support for the greenback can be found at the levels of 91.80, 91.75, and 89.20. In case the price breaks through resistance at 93.20, the way to the level of 93.40 (near the 100-day moving average) and then to 94.20 (November high) will open. According to Barclays, the greenback will remain under pressure in near term due to prolonged "risk-on" sentiment led by vaccine hopes. At the same time, the bank expects the currency to firm in mid-term. "In a scenario where vaccines becomes gradually available next year and economies return to normal, the U.S. will probably be one of the most resilient among developed countries. And I think that will create a dollar-favourable environment," strategist at Barclays said. On Thursday, the euro/dollar pair advanced to 1.1940, its highest level in 12 weeks, but then its bullish run stopped. The euro is trading under pressure from a highly concerning epidemiological situation in Germany. The number of coronavirus infections in the country has already exceeded 1 million people. Earlier, the German authorities decided to extend their partial lockdown introduced on November 2 until December 20. Experts note that any slowdown in the "locomotive" of the euro area may have an adverse impact on the common currency. According to experts at UniCredit, we will hardly see extra gains in the euro ahead of the ECB meeting to be held on December 10. They believe that EUR/USD is stuck in the area of 1.1900 and its growth potential is limited. The reason is that investors will probably not risk opening large positions until the next ECB meeting where new monetary policy measures are expected to be announced. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading Signal for EUR/USD for November 27 - 30, 2020: DoJi Candle Posted: 27 Nov 2020 05:44 AM PST EUR/USD is trading this morning of the American session above the 21-day EMA and above the 3/8 Murray, since we have not yet seen a break of the descending triangle, and it is likely that it will continue to rise to the resistance of 1.1962 (Murray 4/8). Only a break and a consolidation above the (4/8 murray) zone of 1.1962 be the beginning of a new upward movement to 1.20 psychological level and 1.2085 (6/8 murray). Looking at the bigger picture, additional gains are likely in EUR / USD as long as it is above the 21-day moving average on the 4-hour chart. Zone above 1.19. In daily charts on Thursday, a Doji candle has left, which implies indecision in the market, it is important to note if today Friday closes below this level, we could expect a downward movement next week, on the contrary, a close above the 1.1940 high of the Doji candle would mean that the period of indecision is over and allow the upward movement to continue to 1.2085. Our recommendation is that you wait for the price to rise to the 1.1962 resistance zone, if it fails to break this level it would be a good opportunity to sell this pair with targets at the 21-day Ema (1.1901)
On the other hand, a break of the triangle and a consolidation below the 3/8 of murray, will give us the opportunity of a new bearish cycle with targets at the EMA of 200 (1.1801) The eagle indicator is showing a sign of exhaustion, and with an imminent bearish movement for the next few days. Market sentiment has remained intact this week with 70% of investors selling this EUR / USD pair, so it is likely that there could still be bullish movements in this pair, before a sustainable decline. Trading tip for EUR/USD for November 27 – 30 Sell if the pair breaks below 1.1901 with take profit at 1.1840 (2/8 murray) and 1.1801 (EMA 200), and stop loss above 1.1960. Buy if the pair rebound around EMA 200 at 1.1801 with take profit at 1.1840 (2/8 murray) and 1.1901 and stop loss below 1.1770. Sell if the pair pullback to 1.1962, with take profit 1.1901 and 1.1840, Stop loss above 1,1990. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 05:27 AM PST Gold continues to feel the bearish pressure after facing rejection at 1,818 for two consecutive days. Despite the uncertainty about the coronavirus vaccine development and continued escalation in the infections globally, gold remains vulnerable .
Gold: Key resistances and support XAU/USD is likely to find an immediate support barrier at 1,800, which is psychological round figure mark. This price was 2011 November high, a key level for traders to look on which coincides with the lower boundary of a bearish parallel channel . The overall trend appears to bias toward the downside, as suggested by the formation of consecutive lower highs and lower lows. The bears will then challenge the 1,770 cap, the intersection of the Fibonacci 50% retracement of bullish move from 20 March to 7 August. On the flip side, strong resistance awaits at 1811 barrier will guard the further upside. To the upside, any retracement back toward the 1,850-1,860 level could see additional selling opportunities for investors. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BTC analysis for November 27,.2020 - Potential for the downside continuation towards the $15.100 Posted: 27 Nov 2020 05:23 AM PST Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found thatBTC is in upside corrective phase and that we might see another downside swing. Stochastic oscillator is showing bear cross, which is another sign of the downside rotation. Key Levels: Resistance: $17,350 and $18,000 Support level: $15,000 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 05:11 AM PST Eurozone November final consumer confidence -17.6 vs -17.6 prelim Economic confidence 87.6 vs 86.0 expected
Euro area economic confidence slumped on the month amid tighter restrictions across the region and that highlights the struggle with the recovery towards the year-end. As the restrictions look set to continue until the closing stages of the year, it makes for a very uncertain outlook going into Q1 2021 if the virus situation isn't contained.
Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that Gold is doing consolidation at the price of $1,807 but there is still chance for the downside continuation. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Coffee and Cooper today and on the bottom Ethanol and Wheat. Gold is flat on the list.... Key Levels: Resistance: 1,1932 Support levels: $1,799 and $1,786. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| What to expect from oil quotes in the near future Posted: 27 Nov 2020 04:39 AM PST
Oil prices declined during Friday's trading, which was influenced by concerns about the growth in the number of people infected with coronavirus in the United States. The market is still worried about the situation with the pandemic, which is increasingly depressing the country's economy. The main measures to contain the spread of the virus have not yet been taken. Meanwhile, experts warned that although the fall in Brent futures in the morning is quite obvious, it will soon be replaced by a noticeable rise. This forecast was not long in coming: Brent oil futures soon rose 0.9% to $48.24 per barrel. Futures for WTI crude oil, on the other hand, fell 0.3% to $45.38 per barrel. Overall, both benchmarks have risen more than 6% this week.
Despite the depressing situation in the country and a large number of cases, news about the imminent appearance of a vaccine against the ill-fated virus somewhat eased the confusion of market players. Recall that an experimental vaccine from AstraZeneca developed jointly with the University of Oxford, can show 90% effectiveness. The likely vaccine adds to optimism, but not for everyone: some scientists are still unsure of the reliability of the results of these tests. But the possible decision of OPEC+ to extend the current restrictions on oil production, despite the price increase, comes to the defense of oil quotes. Analysts believe that the most likely scenario is the extension of restrictions for 3 months, that is, until March 2021 inclusive. News about the start of the transfer of power to Joe Biden in the US also provides significant support for the green indicators of black gold. Still, there are a lot of reasons for concern for this energy carrier, despite the fact that the price of oil has been in the black for three consecutive weeks and has also shown strong growth since the beginning of this week. So, the increase in oil prices occurred contrary to logic, because, from the point of view of global supply and demand, there were no reasons for this: production increased in Libya, and the coronavirus is spreading rapidly. Weekly data from the US Department of Energy showed that demand for gasoline in the US is declining, and gasoline stocks are growing. On Thursday, realism finally outweighed optimism as Brent futures closed the trading session below $48 per barrel. And despite some fluctuations in indicators on Friday, quotes may well return to $46 per barrel. And some analysts predict that oil will fall to the level of $43-$44 per barrel. According to the analytical Agency Rystad Energy, the decline in oil demand in Europe may amount to 0.9 million barrels per day, which is significantly less than the April quarantine – 2.7 million b/d. Undoubtedly, the drop in demand for energy is due to the strict quarantine in effect in several European countries in November. The difference in this discrepancy is due to the more lenient nature of restrictions and a low percentage of their compliance. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 04:37 AM PST UK's Frost: For a Brexit deal to be possible, it must fully respect UK sovereignty Comments by UK chief Brexit negotiator, David FrostFrost remarks in a tweet thread: Ilook forward to welcoming @MichelBarnier and his team to London and to resuming face-to-face talks tomorrow. We are glad all are safe and well. Some people are asking me why we are still talking. My answer is that it's my job to do my utmost to see if the conditions for a deal exist. It is late, but a deal is still possible, and I will continue to talk until it's clear that it isn't. But for a deal to be possible it must fully respect UK sovereignty. That is not just a word - it has practical consequences. That includes: controlling our borders; deciding ourselves on a robust and principled subsidy control system; and controlling our fishing waters. We look to reach an agreement on this basis, allowing the new beginning to our relationship with the EU which, for our part, we have always wanted. We will continue to work hard to get it - because an agreement on any other basis is not possible. The narrative ahead of the talks in London is that the status quo remains and it is either both sides are still holding out or this just really good political theater. Either way, there isn't anything to get excited about in the next 24-36 hours at least. Further Development
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that the buyers got exhausted today and that there is downside breakout of the upward channel, which is good sign for the downside continuation. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Coffee and Cooper today and on the bottom Ethanol and Wheat. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,1932 Support levels: 1,1885 and 1,1855. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 04:17 AM PST
Silver has escaped from an up channel signaling a potential deeper drop. As you can see on the H4 chart, XAG/USD is trading far below two downtrend lines, so the outlook is bearish, the price could decline further. It has recovered a little within the up channel, but its failure to stay inside of this pattern announces a broader corrective phase. The next downside target is seen at the next peak low, lower low could really validate a move towards fresh new lows.
The rate has retested the broken uptrend line confirming the breakdown and a further decline. Still, only a drop under the 22.786 lower low indicates a larger downside movement. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 04:03 AM PST
There are no significant changes in the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific region on the last business day of the week. The major stock indexes have almost stopped moving. Investors stopped working actively in anticipation of a new batch of news regarding the release of a vaccine against coronavirus infection. They are hoping that this will still be good news since the increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19 infection in the world not only does not slow down but also increases rapidly. Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose 0.3% in the morning. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index did not maintain a positive trend and reduced its positions by 0.1%. It should be noted that there are fairly good statistical data on economic growth in China. In particular, the profits of large Chinese companies from the industrial sector increased in the second month of autumn, which happened for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, the growth rates are gaining momentum and have already reached the maximum over the past almost four years. The total profit of industrial enterprises with total annual revenue of more than £20 million increased immediately by 28.2% on an annualized basis. Now its average level is consolidated at £642.91 billion, which corresponds to $97.79 billion. Note that the increase in September of this year was more modest and amounted to 10.1%. In general, in the period from January to October, the value of the indicator changed in the positive direction by an average of 0.7% over the same period last year. However, it should be noted that in the first three quarters of 2020, there was a significant decrease in this indicator, which is due to the impact of the crisis associated with the coronavirus infection pandemic. Nevertheless, Chinese enterprises are already successfully overcoming this crisis, which allows us to speak of positive results for the year. South Korea's KOSPI Index rose 0.3%. In contrast, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.5%. However, this will not prevent it from fixing growth at the end of this week, which has been going on for four weeks in a row. Thus, in the last month alone, the indicator was able to grow as much as 9%, which brought it closer to demonstrating its best results in the entire history of observation. European stock exchanges, on the contrary, observed a predominantly positive mood, although there are some indexes that have undergone a negative trend. It should be noted, however, that stability in the markets did not appear due to the fact that there is no certainty and full-fledged hope for an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the region and in the world as a whole. The general index of large enterprises in the European region STOXX Europe 600 increased by 0.1% in the morning and moved to 392.02 points. The German DAX Index rose 0.31%. France's CAC 40 index rose 0.46%. Italy's FTSE Index climbed 0.51%. Spain's IBEX 35 Index jumped 0.34%. The UK's FTSE 100 was a lagging link, with a 0.69% decline. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Dollar's continued fall strengthens EUR/USD Posted: 27 Nov 2020 03:55 AM PST During the previous recession, the dollar smile theory was formulated, suggesting an increase in the USD index against the background of an increase in demand for safe-haven assets at the beginning of the recession, its subsequent fall due to the aggressive monetary expansion of the Fed and, finally, new growth due to the outpacing dynamics of the US economy over their main competitors. Given the second wave of COVID-19, the introduction of new restrictions by European countries, and the increased risks of a double recession in the eurozone, one would assume that the dollar is entering the third stage of the cycle. Moreover, American business activity brings pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, the US dollar continues to retreat on all fronts. There is no shortage of bearish forecasts for the USD index. Goldman Sachs expects it to fall by 6% in 2021, and Citi by 20%. The arguments include the recovery of the global economy, the reduction of political risks in the United States, and the reset of relations between Washington and Beijing. The medium and long-term outlook for EUR/USD may be bright, but what about deflation in the eurozone? With the ECB's intention to ease monetary policy in December? The minutes of the previous meeting of the Governing Council help answer this question. A number of officials believe that the stabilization of the situation in financial markets undermines the effectiveness of additional monetary stimulus, and low, often negative rates on debt, push governments to excessive extravagance. The split in the ECB ranks is a bullish factor for the euro. Moreover, the expansion of QE will further reduce the yield differential of Italian and German bonds, which in the current situation can be considered as a positive background for the EUR/USD rally. Dynamics of EUR/USD and bond yields:
As for the dollar smile theory, it is possible that the second, rather than the third, stage of the cycle is currently taking place. Before starting to grow, the USD will be at the bottom for some time, while in 2021 its rate is likely to continue to fall. As evidence, we can cite an increase in the yield curve in the US, which is usually perceived as a bearish signal for the dollar. The dollar smile theory:
Dynamics of the yield curve and the USD index:
In my opinion, if vaccines really help humanity defeat COVID-19, and Joe Biden doesn't attack China as fiercely as Donald Trump did, the global economic recovery will increase the demand for risk and keep safe-haven assets in the black. As a result, the EURUSD pair will be able to continue the rally in the direction of 1.25. Technically, if we assume that wave 4-5 of the Broadening Wedge pattern is not complete yet, then two main strategies can be used to buy the main currency pair. First, it makes sense to form long positions on pullbacks to the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels, which correspond to 1.1865 and 1.1815. Secondly, a confident breakout of the resistances at 1.195 and 1.196 is also suitable for buying. The initial target is 1.2045. EURUSD daily chart:
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| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 03:22 AM PST Gold has changed little in the last few days after reaching the $1,800 psychological level. Is moving in a narrow range signaling a potential sell-off soon. Technically, the price is somehow expected to drop further after making another lower low. XAU/USD failed to make a reversal pattern around the $1,800 which would have signaled a strong rebound, recovery. So, a deeper drop is imminent in the short-term. A decline and stabilization below the former low validate a broader bearish movement. XAU/USD Under Massive Pressure!
XAU/USD hovers right above the $1,800 and above the S3 (1,803) static support. A bearish closure under these downside obstacles should indicate a deeper drop towards the first warning line (WL1) of the descending pitchfork. Now is pressuring the first warning line (wl1) of the former black ascending pitchfork which represented an important downside target after dropping below the lower median line (lml). The price has failed to retest the lower median line (LML) of the descending pitchfork signaling high selling pressure.
Sell a bearish closure under the $1,800 static support and use the warning line (WL1) as the first downside target. The 1,744 is seen as a downside target as well. I believe that the outlook will remain bearish as long XAU/USD is trading below the median line (ML) of the descending pitchfork. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. Hungarian-Polish alliance gains strength, but pair grows thanks to weak dollar Posted: 27 Nov 2020 03:16 AM PST The euro-dollar pair continues to show bullish sentiment, despite the unabated political crisis in Europe. The confrontation between Brussels and the so-called "Hungarian-Polish alliance" continues to be on the agenda, exerting background pressure on the euro. But the general weakness of the dollar allows the buyers of EUR/USD to keep the previously occupied price heights: the pair have beset the 19th figure for the third day. Thursday's corrective pullback, which was triggered by the publication of the ECB minutes, was predictable. After two days of recoilless growth, the pair had to adjust for further ascent. However, it is worth emphasizing that the current growth of the pair is due solely to the weakness of the US dollar, while the euro is under the yoke of its own problems: observe, for example, at the dynamics of such cross-pairs as EUR/JPY or EUR/CHF. This suggests that the prospects for the euro-dollar pair will depend on the condition of the dollar index. If it continues to decline, buyers of EUR/USD will be able to get to the middle of the 19th figure or even test the resistance level of 1.1970. If the attractiveness of the US dollar increases, we expect a decline in the area of the 18th figure that is, to the support levels of 1.1870, 1.1830. The euro is currently unable to contain the blow and repel the possible onset of dollar bulls. The political conflict over the EU budget is to blame.
Let me remind you that Hungary and Poland blocked the final approval of the budget, opposing the new EU rules. According to these rules, Brussels can reduce payments to those countries that violate the principles of the rule of law. Human rights activists have often made similar complaints about Budapest and Warsaw: Hungarians are criticized for pursuing a tough policy against illegal migrants, while poles are criticized for judicial reform and control of the media. In other words, under these circumstances, both Hungary and Poland may not receive tens of billions of euros from EU funds. Therefore, they blocked the budget process, demanding either to exclude the above-mentioned mechanism or to postpone its implementation. The preliminary negotiations between Brussels and Germany did not lead to anything. Moreover, the Prime Ministers of Hungary and Poland signed an agreement on Thursday, that they will act as a "united front" on this issue. The EU leadership is threatening to use alternative mechanisms for implementing the budget, while some Polish and Hungarian politicians are talking about the possible collapse of the EU. However, the latter argument is exclusively populist: according to preliminary polls, about 70-80% of Hungarians and Poles are in favor of membership in the European Union. After the implementation of Brexit, political parties or movements appeared in almost every EU country that supports the state's withdrawal from the Alliance. But, as a rule, the relevant ideas are lobbied by either marginal or right-wing (right-wing radical) forces that do not enjoy broad electoral support. Therefore, all talk about the conditional "POLEXIT" is nothing more than talk. Nevertheless, the very fact of a political conflict puts pressure on the euro. Therefore, it is worth repeating that the growth of the EUR/USD pair is due only to the weakness of the dollar. There are several reasons for the USD to feel insecure. The very common one is the increased market interest in risky assets. The US dollar, which has long been used by the market as a protective tool, has ceased to be in demand. In addition, the devaluation of the greenback is explained by other, more specific factors. First of all, is the coronavirus and its "derivative" problems of a political and economic nature. On Thursday, more than 2,000 people died from Covid-19 in the US, which was the highest death rate in the country over the past six months. The daily morbidity rate does not fall below the 170,000 mark. Governors of many States are forced to tighten quarantine restrictions (up to a complete lockdown), and this fact negatively affects the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. For example, the number of applications for unemployment benefits has been rising for the second week in a row, foreshadowing weak Nonfarms that will be published next Friday. Meanwhile, the issue of accepting a new aid package for the US economy has been hanging in the air since the end of October. After nearly 6 months of negotiations, Democrats and Republicans were unable to find a compromise. At the moment, no one knows when the negotiation process will resume, given the change of power in the White house. Most likely, politicians will return to this issue at the beginning of next year.
Thus, the fundamental background, in general, contributes to the further growth of EUR/USD. On Thursday, the pair's bears tried to go for a correction, amid the growth of the US dollar. But the dollar index showed an upward trend for just a few hours, after which it began to slide down again. The euro-dollar pair, respectively, acted in a mirror way: after a decline to the level of 1.1880, it resumed its growth, returning to the area of the 19th figure. All this suggests that the pair retains the potential for further growth, with the first (and so far main) target of 1.1970 being the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: plan for the American session on November 27 (analysis of morning deals) Posted: 27 Nov 2020 03:10 AM PST To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: In my morning forecast, I paid attention to sales from the level of 1.1929, provided that a false breakout was formed there, which happened. On the 5-minute chart, I marked the entry point to short positions after the bulls failed to get above the high of 1.1929. However, at the time of writing, there was no major fall in the euro, which makes us doubt the strength of sellers. While trading will be conducted below the resistance of 1.1929, the sell signal will work. However, at the next attempt to break the above level, I recommend that you exit short positions and wait for the conditions that will be described below.
The initial goal of the bulls is to break through and consolidate at the maximum of 1.1929, the top-down test of which, similar to yesterday's purchase, forms a convenient entry point into long positions in the expectation of continuing the upward movement of EUR/USD and reaching a new level of 1.1964, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-term goal of the bulls is still the resistance of 1.2008, which is also psychological. In the scenario of EUR/USD falling back to 1.1885 in the second half of the day, only the formation of a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions. If there is no bull activity at this level, I recommend that you do not rush to buy, but wait for a downward correction to the support area of 1.1844, from where you can buy the euro today immediately for a rebound based on an upward correction of 15-20 points. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to: With the first morning task, the bears coped perfectly and did not allow the bulls to take control of the resistance of 1.1929, forming a sell signal there, which is still valid at the moment. The next task for sellers, even against the background of low trading volume, is to return to the level of 1.1885, which they have tested several times this week. However, only a consolidation below 1.1885 and its test from the reverse side from the bottom up form a more convenient entry point for short positions in the expectation of a resumption of the downward trend. In this case, the nearest target of the bears will be a new low of 1.1844, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the bulls are stronger in the second half of the day and take control of the resistance of 1.1929, then I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from the maximum of 1.1964, based on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for November 17 recorded an increase in long and short positions. Thus, long non-profit positions increased from 202,374 to 203,551, while short non-profit positions increased to 69,591 from 67,087. The total non-commercial net position fell to 133,960 from 135,287 weeks earlier. It is worth noting that the delta has been declining for 8 consecutive weeks, which confirms the lack of desire of euro buyers to go to the market in the current conditions. It will be possible to talk about a further recovery of the euro only after European leaders "settle" their differences with Poland and Hungary, and the UK agrees with Brussels on a new trade agreement. Otherwise, we will have to wait for the lifting of restrictive measures imposed due to the second wave of coronavirus in many EU countries. Signals of indicators: Moving averages Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market before a period of low trading volume at the end of the week. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1. Bollinger Bands A break of the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1929 will lead to new growth of the pair. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1904 will increase the pressure on the euro. Description of indicators
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| EUR/USD Facing Tough Resistance Posted: 27 Nov 2020 02:12 AM PST EUR/USD is trading in the green on the H4 chart and is almost to reach a strong dynamic resistance again. Technically, the bias is bullish, so the pair is expected to resume the current growth. Euro has decreased a little in yesterday's session as the German Gfk Consumer Climate was reported at -6.7, below -4.9 expected. Still, the pair is expected to jump higher as long is traded above the 1.19 psychological level. USDX's further drop will definitely push EUR/USD higher towards the 1.2 psychological level. EUR/USD Another Breakout Attempt!
EUR/USD has come back down to retest the 1.9 level and now it could pressure the median line (ml) again. I've told you yesterday that the rate will approach the 1.2 level if the pair will close and stabilize above the median line (ml). The pair could increase even if it stays under the median line (ml), but this could be a slower one. Closing above the R2 (1.1934) could validate further bullish momentum. As you already know, the next major upside target is seen at 1.20.
A bullish closure above 1.1940 suggests buying with an immediate target at 1.2. The buying pressure is high as the price continues to stay near the median line (ml). Also, consolidating above 1.19 could offer a long opportunity as well. The bullish scenario could be invalidated by a drop from the ascending pitchfork's body. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Daily Video Analysis: AUDUSD facing bullish pressure, potential for further rise! Posted: 27 Nov 2020 02:08 AM PST Today we take a look at AUDUSD. Combining advanced technical analysis methods such as Fibonacci confluence, correlation, market structure, oscillators and demand/supply zones, we identify high probability trading setups. AUDUSD is facing bullish pressure, where it can continue to rise towards our first support level a 0.74156. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Cost of oil are declining again Posted: 27 Nov 2020 02:06 AM PST
The prices of crude oil are declining again this morning. The correction remains, which began the day before. Analysts warned that this was already expected, so it wasn't too surprising. The maximum value of the price of black gold today, which was reached recently, is left behind, while the WTI brand immediately rose by 1.5%, which moved it below the $ 45 mark per barrel. On the other hand, the price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for January delivery on the trading floor in London dropped by 0.17%, or $ 0.08, which sent it to the level of $ 47.72 per barrel. Yesterday's session ended with a decline of 1.7%, or $ 0.81, and the final price was $ 47.80 per barrel. The price of WTI light crude oil futures contracts for January delivery on the electronic trading floor in New York is also declining, but much faster. This morning's decline has already amounted to 1.84%, or $ 0.84, which sent it to $ 44.87 per barrel. Yesterday, the sites were closed due to Thanksgiving holiday. It should be recalled that the oil began to feel more or less confident when this week started, which allowed its price to clearly rise and even reach the high values recorded last March this year. However, black gold failed to hold the platform for a long time, and there was an inevitable correction, which is justified by investors' fears. Meanwhile, the transition to fix the profits was already received. The positive news for oil raw materials was associated with the possible appearance of a widely available vaccine against COVID-19 in the near future. Several companies announced the success of their clinical trials. Nevertheless, experts warned that this is a temporary reason to be optimistic, and the hype around this will quickly fade, since market participants will still have to really look at the situation around the pandemic. Thus, investors still decided to fix their profits by the end of the week of rapid growth, since they no longer see any particular reasons to be positive. But the price of crude oil may still end this week with a good increase. However, it is already clear that the participants are worried again in connection with the news about the global situation of COVID-19. This fact will likely be next week's impulse, if other more significant news does not appear. Against this background, there is a serious pressure on the level of supply and demand, and it may take some time before these indicators stabilize. In this regard, market participants prefer to wait until the next OPEC meeting, where the question of whether it is worth temporarily halting the growth in oil production anticipated by the contract will be decided. Given the rising cost of black gold, this decision will be extremely difficult. If the decision is made in favor of reducing production, this will satisfy the United States, which is on the side of strict quotas. It should be recalled that as soon as the price of oil started to rise, active drilling and production of raw materials begin, which almost immediately worsens the market situation. The growth that occurred this week has already significantly revived the mining sector, whose negative consequences can be felt in just a week. This means that the rise in the black gold's price will be even more limited in the future. Analysts concluded that the further growth in the oil market will be challenging and not as simple as it was before. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 27 Nov 2020 02:02 AM PST During the trading session yesterday, the price of bitcoin fell by 13%, Ari lost more than 25%. Even before the close of yesterday's session, analysts considered this as the worst result for digital currencies since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the beginning of US trading on Wednesday, the price of bitcoin was as close as possible to historical records reaching $ 19,500. Afterwards, the digital coin began to correct and a couple of hours later, it fell to $ 1,500 in the Asian session. After four hours of consolidation, the market was flooded with a second wave of sales and the value of bitcoin collapsed by another $ 1,500. As a result, the price of the main digital currency fell to $ 16,814 per coin. However, hard times have come not only for BTC but also for many altcoins. So, Ethereum, XP and Ripple were trading in the red, which lost almost 30% at the end of the session yesterday. Experts say that the main reason for such a grandiose collapse in prices is the prospects for strengthening regulation of cryptocurrencies and profit-taking after a spectacular growth (over the past nine months, the cost of bitcoin has jumped by 250%). It is known that in the near future, the US authorities are considering the possibility of passing a law that deprives digital transactions of the anonymity status on which the cryptocurrency principle is based. This desire of the trump administration to attack the market of digital coins could well be a significant reason for their collapse. Quite often, experts call the mass liquidation of positions with leverage on large derivatives exchanges a possible reason for the fall of bitcoin. So, the amount of positions liquidated on crypto derivatives amounted to $2 billion over the past days. And in the last 12 hours alone, the mark has exceeded $1.6 billion. Against the background of these events, the financing rate increased to 0.098% which indicates excessive use of borrowed funds and overheating of the market. The indicator collapsed against a sharp decline in the price of BTC. The resumption of the ability to withdraw funds from one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world could also accelerate the negative dynamics which gave a sharp boost to sales. By the way, analysts attribute the recent huge rise of digital currencies to their growing popularity on the US stock markets. Other experts explain the steady growth of cryptocurrencies by the devaluation of the dollar, which is carried out by the Fed. The PayPal Payment System added additional attractiveness to bitcoin, allowing customers to use digital currencies, thereby significantly increasing the availability of its purchase for a large number of people around the world. So, the current base of the main virtual currency before the introduction of PayPal was 100 million users, after that, it went to three times more. In addition, Fidelity Investments launched a Fund focused on the main digital coin and Square and MicroStrategy announced their major investments in BTC. In General, experts support the desire of investors to invest in digital assets like bitcoin, confirming that such technologies will be actively developed in the future and will defend their niche in the global financial system. At the same time, other cryptocurrencies are significantly inferior to bitcoin both in terms of technology and in terms of their capitalization according to analysts. But if we still consider altcoins from the point of view of adding to the investment portfolio, the ideal ratio is: BTC – 80%, other currencies – 20%. Interestingly, Citi suggested in mid-November that bitcoin could soar like gold in the 1970s of the last century and by the end of 2021 - 1 digital coin will be worth around $320,000. Deutsche Bank generally stated that the main cryptocurrency is already replacing gold as a hedging tool for various risks. However, today many experts believe that digital currencies are significantly overbought and they need a correction. In this regard, their current decline was quite obvious and expected. It is possible that after the correction, the situation will level out and cryptocurrencies will be able to continue their growth. Thus, more pessimistic experts compare today's price collapse with the events of 2017 to 2018, when the cryptocurrency bubble in the market burst with a bang. As a confirmation of the identity of the situations, they point to the increased activity of retail speculators, which often signals that the market is forming a top. In contrast to analysts' opinion, many investors believe that by the end of the year, the main digital currency will grow to $20,000 to 25,000 and they explain its temporary fall as a logical short-term phenomenon after the maximum take-off. After all, any asset that is able to grow by 250% from the March lows can afford a correction. And based on the historical aspect, those who did not succumb to speculative panic in the market two and three years ago, remained in a significant gain. If you will remember the previous bubbles, the bitcoin was fixed in much higher positions than before the bubble. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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