COVID Will Be With Us Forever, So Calm Down

Gilder's Daily Prophecy

December 07, 2020

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COVID Will Be With Us Forever, So Calm Down

George GilderDear Daily Prophecy Reader,

Below you will find an excerpt from this blog post from statistician William Briggs.

Keep scrolling to read his thoughts regarding the latest news on the coronavirus…


America's #1 Futurist Makes Big Prediction

Daily tests:

Chart

Click the image to enlarge.

This is the number of daily tests. The date of the media’s (COVID Tracking Project) peak attributed deaths is noted: attributed deaths have been steadily declining since then (they will never go to 0).

Topped out just over 2.1 million (data ends Sunday; Monday will be much higher). People obeying the tyranny, and also some realizing their fear was overblown, led to the big up and downs. Many tyrants insisted on testing before traveling. Yet many still joined their loved ones, something the government hates. Maybe because it replaces love of them with love of family?

Notice where the peak of COVID deaths were? Testing levels have nothing to do with the actual state of the disease.

Each positive test in the media is counted as a new “case.” These are almost all not cases, but merely positive tests, which indicate past infections, current by mild infections, asymptomatic infections, and even no infections at all. False positives.

If testing was at all related to actual deaths, a plot of number of tests per number of deaths should be somewhat flat, all things considered. Here’s what the plot looks like in reality:

Chart

Click the image to enlarge.

The CDC’s COVID deaths (rescaled only to aid in visualization) are there as a guide. Testing continues to soar even as deaths sink to background level. We have lost any sense of proportion.

Here are CDC the weekly attributed coronavirus deaths:

Chart

Click the image to enlarge.

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These are attributed deaths, which include all those dying with or dying from the coronavirus. The CDC says deaths “involving” COVID.

Attributed COVID deaths peaked early in the year, and then as it spread to the south, it re-peaked. It is now joining the great chorus of bugs that circulate every winter. It will peak in winter, and subside again in spring. This year’s totals will be higher than next year’s, and there always be fluctuation, just like with flu.

Here’s the CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot. The late drop off is late counting, which takes up to eight weeks to get all, but most are in by three. We need to look at all causes of death because we can’t quite trust the COVID numbers.

Chart

Click the image to enlarge.

The black line is all deaths, including COVID. Weekly deaths are now at a low, even COVID is small. The dashed is all minus attributed COVID, and the red, for perspective, is COVID. (Again, the drop off is late counts.) The blue line, about the same order as the doom, is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients).

The CDC (important!) stopped reporting separate flu and pneumonia deaths midway through 2020, but I estimate them after by subtracting deaths “involving” COVID from those “involving” (their word) pneumonia or flu or COVID. That’s the dashed blue line.

Bottom line: No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID.

-William Briggs

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Regards,

George Gilder

George Gilder
Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy

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