Common sense usually wins out

Hey everybody,

Want to get back to writing some more longer-form thoughts to you all, so hope you enjoy this:

If you paid much attention to me last year, you know one thing for certain:

I hated Zoom (ZM).

While the video communication software was all the rage in the early (and even the middle) months of the pandemic, I was looking at the fundamentals and being less and less convinced that the insane stock prices were maintainable.

You can watch this video from back in June about why I was so low on Zoom at the time.

Now, listen, before I sound like I'm too arrogant here: Zoom went up a lot — like a whole heck of a lot! — after I recorded that video.

But my basic belief about he stock never changed:

I have nothing against Zoom as a service or really as a company. Chances are, if you've ever joined me on a live broadcast, you've joined me over Zoom. We use it all the time!

But when I was doing the hard work, reading their financials and their earnings reports, I recognized that there was no excuse for that company to have an eleventy-bajillion dollar market cap, pandemic or not.

Now, for a long time I looked kind of foolish. A lot of Zoom bulls made a lot of money on a long, long ride up to almost $600 per share.

But have you looked at Zoom recently?

Slowly but steadily over the last few months, Zoom has sunk down over $200 per share.

Take a look at the chart:

This isn't the "Rob dances on the grave of Zoom" party. It's still a wildly expensive stock and a lot of folks are probably still really happy with their trades on it.

But it is a reminder of one thing:

Common sense usually eventually wins in the stock market.

Whether it's a company that is extremely overvalued or an asset that people are ignoring, folks begin to catch on eventually.

Patience is really important.

It's not about proving yourself right all the time (although, you know, I'm not complaining).

It's really about seeing the narrative and believing in your research, trusting your instincts, and watching it come to fruition.

I love doing that kind of research.

It's the sort of work I'm doing to pick the stocks in the $5 Trade Club.

I study and find my favorite under-$5 stock pick every single month, and then I recommend it to you! You can find out all about it here.

Most traders over-rely on their gut. But that's because they're just focused on their gut.

If you do the hard work, research a company, and then have a really strong instinct about it, that's the voice you should listen to.

It may take some time, but usually, common sense wins in the end.


Love the heck outta you,

Rob
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