Inflation sightings!

Bill Bonner’s Diary

Inflation Sightings!

By Bill Bonner

Monday, April 12, 2021

Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Like pilgrims crossing the Atlantic, we keep our eyes on the horizon, watching for land.

Consumer price inflation… it must be out there somewhere.

We’ve been headed in that direction for many years. And lately, huge gusts of big spending/big printing… from Donald Trump and Joe Biden… have been driving us forward.

Headed to InflationLand

In 2020, the feds spent $3.7 trillion they didn’t have. In 2021, the Biden Bunch is still adding to the total deficit… U.S. debt topped $28 trillion last week.

It’s not as if there were any mystery to what happens next.

There’s a huge, sad continent out there – InflationLand. And it requires no navigational skill to get there. Just keep going in this direction… We’ll hit landfall soon enough.

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And what’s this? A seagull! We must be getting close. CNBC:

U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in March, resulting in the largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, fitting in with expectations for higher inflation as the economy reopens amid an improved public health environment and massive government funding.

The producer price index [PPI] for final demand jumped 1.0% last month after increasing 0.5% in February, the Labor Department said on Friday. In the 12 months through March, the PPI surged 4.2%. That was the biggest year-on-year rise since September 2011 and followed a 2.8% advance in February.

March’s rate, if it were to continue, would put the PPI well into double digits for the year. Then, the wholesale prices would work their way down the chain to the retail shelves… where people would begin to notice.

So far, the numbers are relatively small.

But with enough careful management by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden, it shouldn’t be too long before we run onto the rocks.

Full Speed Ahead

You get to InflationLand, grosso modo, by discouraging production and encouraging consumption. Then, when the quantity of money increases faster than the goods and services you buy with them, prices rise.

The feds (with the collusion of federal, state, and health officials) “turned off” whole industries last year. Even today, many shops are still closed.

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Note that they didn’t shut down demand; they closed off the supply of goods and services. Meanwhile, they gave out money. Here’s The Seattle Times:

The Treasury Department said Wednesday it has issued more than 156 million payments as part of President Joe Biden’s coronavirus relief plan, including 25 million payments that were primarily to Social Security beneficiaries who hadn’t filed 2019 or 2020 tax returns.

The direct payments of as much as $1,400 per person were the cornerstone promise of Biden’s $1.9 trillion package to contain the pandemic and revive the U.S. economy. Roughly $372 billion has been paid out since March 12, a sum that likely boosted hiring last month as Americans had more money to spend.

But with so much stimmy money headed in their direction, a lot of people are apparently deciding not to go to work. Businesses report that it is hard to hire people for entry- and low-level jobs.

No Turning Back

Economists predict a big “surge” in GDP this year. But it is mostly a surge in spending fake money, not in creating new goods and services.

In other words, it’s not the gentle wind of an honest, productive economy that we have to look forward to… it’s the gale of out-of-control inflation. MarketWatch:

A sudden surge in demand following a supply shock is a “classic recipe” for a pickup in inflation, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in an April 4 note.

“The result is that investors should be prepared for the biggest inflation scare in America on the reopening of the economy since the early 1980s when former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker crushed double digit inflation in the late 1970s by imposing high real interest rates on the American economy,” Wood said.

But there will be no high real interest rates imposed this time. The monetary system won’t be rescued.

InflationLand is where we’re going. There’s no turning back.

Stay tuned.

Regards,

signature

Bill


Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.


MAILBAG

A dear reader explains how inflation is impacting his daily life… while others are catching up on Bill’s April Fools’ Diary

I am a contractor and home service provider. Man, are we seeing inflation! From the cost of a simple water heater to the cost of piping to install in a newly constructed home, we are seeing prices skyrocket. For an example, a 20 section of 4” PVC pipe has gone from a cost of +/- $17 U.S. dollars up to $50.20. The price increase is not stopping. Increases are coming weekly on most all products we use, along with the products the home builders use.

We are being told that this all stems from the big freeze in Texas in February, and shortages from the resin plants that are down. But in my opinion, if relief is not here soon, not only will our industry shut down, but many others will also.

– Paul F.

Since I’m a lackadaisical email follower, I just now read your hilarious April Fools’ column. What a HOOT! It’s good to laugh at the current over-the-top demands of the woke cognoscenti. Unfortunately, the purposeful elevation of victimhood as if it were a goal to aspire to is depressingly real… “I am poor and downtrodden because of evil capitalism (or whatever current boogeyman I can blame); therefore, I’m entitled to loot, smash, and burn anything I want/don’t want.”

Thank you for your excellent piece mocking the current state of affairs, which desperately needs more humor and less hand-wringing. It is ridiculous.

– Sharon C.

You got me with the April Fools’ joke. I guess I have been programmed to believe anything is possible in this country, after so many years of political insanity.

– Richard S.

Oh, well done! You had me going for a few paragraphs. After all, the Biden Bunch has a distant and hostile relationship with reality, so practically any lunatic idea could come from them. But after a glance at the calendar, I got it. Thanks. A fun read to enjoy during the arson of the American Experiment.

– Bill G.

How might inflation begin to affect you, if it hasn’t already? And what are you doing to prepare for the surge in inflation Bill sees coming? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

Bill Bonner: Shadow-Banned?

Have America’s top booksellers refused to carry Bill Bonner’s final book?

You won’t find new copies of Win-Win or Lose at Barnes & Noble… and not a single copy is floating around on eBay.

In fact, the only used copy we could find was going for $79 on Amazon.

Which is why Bill recently authorized us to take drastic steps to put a copy in your hands essentially free – as part of this limited time offer.

To claim yours, click here.

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