Forex analysis review |
- Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 2. The Bank of England is unlikely to surprise traders with anything. All attention
- Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 2. Preview of the week. The US dollar is waiting and hoping to see strong reports from
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on August 2. Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on August 2. Analysis of Friday. Getting ready for Monday
- Weekly NZDUSD analysis
- Weekly GBPUSD candlestick analysis.
- Bitcoin faces big resistance
- XRPUSD could start the week with a short-term pull back
- AUD/USD. Waiting for the RBA verdict: Australian central bank may issue a "ticket to the south" for the aussie
| Posted: 01 Aug 2021 06:59 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways. Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward. CCI: 30.3806 The British pound also began to adjust against the US currency on Friday, as did the euro. The only difference is that the pound went up about 400 points before adjusting, and the euro currency – 150. Thus, the British currency has strengthened very seriously in the last couple of weeks, and we can only try to figure out why this happened and what awaits the pair next. By and large, nothing unexpected happened. In recent months, we have repeatedly said that we expect a resumption of the global upward trend. Now, of course, it is still impossible to say with certainty that the upward trend has resumed. Nevertheless, the chances of this are extremely high. Recall that the pair fell to the area of 1.3600-1.3666, which we have repeatedly called the target. As for the fundamental reasons, there were practically none. We mean that last week, and the week before that, there were not many macroeconomic and fundamental events that could provoke an almost recoilless growth of the pound by 400 points. However, this does not mean that there were no reasons for such an increase. As the latest COT reports showed, the big players did nothing but reduce long positions on the pound and increase short ones. However, the pound has been growing for two weeks, so now, new purchases of the British currency by major players would be more suitable. But their net position has fallen below zero, so their mood is already "bearish." The "bearish" mood of traders and the pound is growing. We have already talked about this discrepancy many times. From our point of view, this paradoxical situation is explained by the fact that hundreds of billions of dollars continue to pour into the American economy from the Fed, which continues to inflate the money supply and devalue the dollar. Therefore, this situation arises, in which the largest and most important market players sell the pound, and it becomes more expensive. From our point of view, the US currency is depreciating just faster than the pound, which is indirectly confirmed by the inflation data in the UK and the US. This week, the most important data on the labor market will be published in the US, and a meeting of the Bank of England will be held in the UK. All these events are extremely important. Nothing supernatural can be expected from the Bank of England now. After the Fed made it clear that there is no question of any tightening of monetary policy now, it is unlikely that any traders will seriously expect that the Bank of England will talk about curtailing the QE program or raising rates. Although formally, it is the Bank of England that is a little closer to completing the stimulus program than the Fed since one of the nine members of the monetary committee has already voted for reducing the QE program for two meetings in a row. We will find out how it will be this time on Thursday. It is even the main intrigue of this meeting, which promises to be as passable as possible, like the last meeting of the Fed. So far, even the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, does not appear in the news calendars. Thus, everything can end with a regular report on monetary policy, and that's it. Since the regulator currently has no grounds for reducing the QE program, the pound is unlikely to wait for support from the BA. However, does he even need this support and the entire fundamental background? Over the past few weeks, the pound/dollar pair has been trading quite volatile, regularly showing trends although no reports and figures have been received from the UK. Thus, the pound can continue to trade quite actively without a BA meeting. It should also be noted that the general fundamental background from the UK is now as simple as possible. If a couple of weeks ago there was threatening data on the "fourth wave" of the pandemic, now the epidemiological situation has improved. However, this is the UK, and there are by definition plenty of problems there now. We have already talked about the impending political crisis, as more criticism is pouring into Boris Johnson every day. London also conflicts with Brussels over the "Northern Ireland Protocol," regularly violating its provisions and demanding its complete revision. It is not the kind and scale of the problem to causes a decline in the British currency. Most likely, the pound will continue to react more to the actions of the Fed and the ratio of British and American inflation. Recall that in the United States, the consumer price index is at least twice as high as in Britain. By the way, several secondary reports, such as business activity indices, will also be published in the UK this week. However, there is little chance that the markets will notice them at all. From a technical point of view, the pair is now being adjusted to move. A rebound from this moving average may trigger the resumption of the upward movement. The lower linear regression channel has already started to turn up, and the last downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe ended where we expected. Therefore, in global terms, no one prevents the pair from resuming the global upward trend now.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 87 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." On Monday, August 2, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3816 and 1.3990. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back to the top will signal the resumption of the upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.3855 S2 – 1.3794 S3 – 1.3733 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.3916 R2 – 1.3977 R3 – 1.4038 Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair continues to be located above the moving average on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today, we should again consider buying the pair with targets of 1.3977 and 1.4038 after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up or rebounds from the moving average line. Sell orders should be considered if the price is fixed below the moving average with targets of 1.3794 and 1.3733, and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi turns up. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 01 Aug 2021 06:59 PM PDT 4-hour timeframe
Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward. Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward. Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward. CCI: 65.6592 The EUR/USD currency pair began a round of downward correction, which cannot be said to be brewing, but did not come as a big surprise. Recall that the euro/dollar pair has been trading mainly without a clear direction of movement and with low volatility in the last few weeks. Thus, after several days of growth, traders caught themselves and immediately began to fix profits on long positions. Recall that we expect the continuation of the upward movement and the resumption of the global upward trend. However, the European currency did not want to overcome the level of 1.1760 at first, and now it can't start a hike to the north. For example, the pound has grown by 400 points for almost two weeks, and only after that, it began to adjust. However, the euro rose by 150 points and also began to adjust. It should also be said separately about the macroeconomic statistics of last week. We have already talked about the Fed meeting, which caused a very modest reaction of the markets. But the statistics published on Thursday and Friday in the United States and the European Union were completely ignored by traders. Recall that on Thursday, the US published a report on GDP for the second quarter, which turned out to be significantly lower than forecasts. The euro continued to rise in price slowly. On Friday, the European Union published data on unemployment, inflation, and GDP, which became better than forecasts. However, it did not cause any strengthening of the European currency. Thus, we continue to draw traders' attention to the fact that macroeconomic statistics continue to have a very indirect impact on the foreign exchange market. Since the European currency has been declining more recently than it has become more expensive, it is still impossible to conclude with confidence that the fundamental global factor in the form of an infusion of trillions of dollars from the Fed into the US economy continues to work. Nevertheless, we believe that this is the case, which means that the US currency will continue to depreciate. There will again be plenty of important and interesting information of a macroeconomic nature in the new trading week. Of course, most of this data can be easily and ignored by the markets, and there is nothing to be done about it. However, it is not recommended to ignore these reports. In the European Union, an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, a similar index for the service sector, and a report on retail trade will be published within a week. We believe that none of these reports will cause a strong market reaction or any reaction at all. Here you should make one remark. We call the "market reaction to a report or event" the immediate start of price movement in the appropriate direction. If the report is released and the movement continues in the same direction and with the same force as before, it is impossible to interpret it as a market reaction unambiguously. Thus, there may be a reaction of traders to all the European data in the form of a movement of a couple of points by 10-15. And who is interested in a 10-point movement? There will certainly be more different statistics in the States this week. The ISM business activity index will be published on Monday. On Wednesday, changes in the number of employees in the private sector ADP and business activity index in the service sector ISM. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and the change in average wages. Although all these reports are more or less important, we believe that a reaction may follow to data from ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls in the current conditions. Recall that at the last meeting of the Fed, Jerome Powell again made it clear that the completion of the quantitative stimulus program and the increase in rates are entirely dependent on the recovery of the labor market in the United States. Therefore, there is no doubt that the following dependence can be made: the recovery of the labor market to pre-crisis values is equal to the curtailment of the QE program and the increase in rates. Therefore, in the coming months and until the end of the year, the reports on the labor market and the labor force will be of the highest importance for the markets. According to experts' forecasts, the number of new employees in the private sector will be 700-715 thousand in July, and the number of Nonfarm will be 900 thousand. These are very high forecasts. Recall that according to the Fed, at this time, the number of workers in the United States is 7 million lower than before the pandemic. Our calculations suggest that the labor market can fully recover in 14-15 months. However, if Nonfarm grows by a million a month, then the Fed will curtail the quantitative stimulus program by the end of this year. Thus, a lot for the US dollar will now depend on the data on the labor market. Strong data may return demand for the US currency or provide it with strong support. Weak data on the labor market can only put even more pressure on the position of the US currency and increase the negative effect on the currency from the Fed's actions. From a technical point of view, the price is now located above the moving average line, so the trend is currently upward. Thus, a rebound of the price from the moving average can provoke a resumption of the upward movement. We do not yet see any serious reasons to expect a resumption of the dollar's growth (that is, the fall of the euro/dollar pair). Thus, we do not consider this option seriously. However, it should be remembered that this is a foreign exchange market, which has a huge number of participants. And it is the behavior of these participants that forms the course of the pair. Accordingly, it should always be remembered that it is impossible to predict the direction of movement with a probability of 100%. Therefore, we consider long positions as long as the price is located above the moving average.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 2 is 62 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1805 and 1.1929. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top will signal the resumption of the upward movement. Nearest support levels: S1 – 1.1841 S2 – 1.1780 S3 – 1.1719 Nearest resistance levels: R1 – 1.1902 R2 – 1.1963 R3 – 1.2024 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has started a round of downward correction. Thus, today we should consider options for opening new long positions with targets of 1.1902 and 1.1929 after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upwards or in the case of a price rebound from the moving average. Sales of the pair will be possible not before the price is fixed back below the moving average line with targets of 1.1805 and 1.1780. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 01 Aug 2021 02:08 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Only three trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. In part, novice traders were very lucky, since there were no other levels between the important levels from the 30-minute TF of 1.3896 and 1.3975, although there are usually extreme levels of the previous days. However, this time there was none, which allowed beginners to earn good money on July 30. The first sell signals were formed during the European trading session in the form of rebounds from the level of 1.3975. The first was not the most accurate, but the second was much more accurate and stronger. After the formation of these two signals, the price went down 67 points and reached the nearest level of 1.3896. Thus, novice traders could make a profit by closing a trade near the target, and by Taking Profit, and as they like. Naturally, it was not worth working out a buy signal in the form of a price rebound from the level of 1.3896, since by that time it was already the evening and the foreign exchange market was about to close. The macroeconomic reports that were published during the day did not have any impact on the pair. 5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Only three trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. In part, novice traders were very lucky, since there were no other levels between the important levels from the 30-minute TF of 1.3896 and 1.3975, although there are usually extreme levels of the previous days. However, this time there is no, which allowed the newcomers to earn good money on July 30. The first sell signals were formed during the European trading session in the form of bounces from the level of 1.3975. The first was not the most accurate, but the second was much more accurate and stronger. After the formation of these two signals, the price went down 67 points and worked out the nearest level of 1.3896. Thus, novice traders could make a profit by closing a trade near the target, and by Taking Profit, and as they like. Naturally, it was not worth working out a buy signal in the form of a price rebound from the level of 1.3896, since by that time Friday evening and the closing of the foreign exchange market were already approaching. The macroeconomic statistics that were published during the day did not have any impact on the pair. Trading tips for Monday: At this time, on the 30-minute timeframe, the pound/dollar pair has settled below the rising channel, so the trend has changed to a downward one. Thus, on the 30-minute timeframe at this time, it is necessary to consider the sell signals from the MACD indicator. To do this, you need to wait for its discharge to the zero level. And for this, it is necessary that an upward correction begins. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3832, 1.3862, 1.3896 and 1.3975. We recommend trading on them. The price can rebound from them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. You can use all the nearest levels on the 5-minute TF as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting the Stop Loss to breakeven. On Monday, the UK is scheduled to publish only the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, as in the US. However, these reports can be easily ignored, since recently, the markets did not even pay attention to much more important events and reports. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 01 Aug 2021 02:08 PM PDT Analysis of previous deals: 30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair tried to continue the upward movement that began about a week ago, but in the afternoon it still retreated. It should be noted right away that this week there were quite a large number of important macroeconomic reports and fundamental events. Starting with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, ending with a whole package of important reports published on Friday in the European Union. But at the same time, the volatility of the currency pair remained quite low all these days. For example, last Thursday, a little more than 40 points were passed, and on Friday – about 50. And this is in the presence, as I have already said, of quite important reports and events. And so the markets continue to ignore macroeconomic reports. On the same Friday, the European Union published data on unemployment, inflation and GDP. These are the most important indicators of the state of almost any economy. However, traders did not react to these reports, although the results were quite strong and exceeded the forecasts of traders. As a result, 2 signals were even formed on the 30-minute timeframe, the first of which was from MACD to buy and turned out to be false, and the second was a rebound from the 1.1851 level, which is duplicated on the 5-minute timeframe. According to the signal from the MACD, novice traders could open long positions, since the indicator was previously discharged to zero, but the upward movement did not last long, so the deal should be closed when the indicator turned down, in zero profit. 5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair tried to continue the upward movement that began about a week ago, but in the afternoon it still retreated. It should be noted right away that this week there were quite a large number of important macroeconomic reports and fundamental events. Starting with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, ending with a whole package of important reports published on Friday in the European Union. But at the same time, the volatility of the currency pair remained quite low all these days. For example, last Thursday, a little more than 40 points were passed, and on Friday – about 50. And this is in the presence, as I have already said, of quite important reports and events. And so the markets continue to ignore macroeconomic reports. On the same Friday, the European Union published data on unemployment, inflation and GDP. These are the most important indicators of the state of almost any economy. However, traders did not react to these reports, although the results were quite strong and exceeded the forecasts of traders. As a result, 2 signals were even formed on the 30-minute timeframe, the first of which was from MACD to buy and turned out to be false, and the second was a rebound from the 1.1851 level, which is duplicated on the 5-minute timeframe. According to the signal from the MACD, novice traders could open long positions, since the indicator was previously discharged to zero, but the upward movement did not last long, so the deal should be closed when the indicator turned down, in zero profit. Trading tips for Monday: On the 30-minute timeframe, the price finally managed to leave the horizontal channel and form a kind of trend. A rising trend line has appeared, but its angle of inclination is low. Therefore, it is hardly worth expecting that the price will often fall to it in order to rebound. In general, the euro/dollar pair is facing low volatility, which greatly complicates the trading process. Thus, formally, it is now possible to consider buy signals from the MACD indicator, but this should be done as carefully as possible. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is recommended to trade from the levels 1,1802, 1,1831, 1,1851, 1,1880, 1,1912, 1,1921. Take Profit, as before, we set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level, if it is not located too close or too far away. If you are located – then you should act according to the situation. On Monday, business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors will be published in the United States and the European Union. However, on Thursday and Friday, much more important reports were ignored by traders. Thus, the probability of working off these is small. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 01 Aug 2021 08:18 AM PDT NZDUSD is trading around 0.6970 for the 4th consecutive week. Each time moves below 0.6950 over the last four weeks, bulls step in and push price higher to close the week above it. This can be seen by the long lower tails in the weekly candlesticks.
Blue line - resistance NZDUSD is testing important weekly support. So far support is being respected. For trend to change to bullish, bulls will need to show some signs of strength. The most important sign would be for price to break above the blue downward sloping trend line resistance and make a weekly close above 0.7020. I would expect a strong move higher if bulls recapture 0.7020. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Weekly GBPUSD candlestick analysis. Posted: 01 Aug 2021 08:12 AM PDT GBPUSD enjoyed a positive week after a bullish hammer candlestick pattern week. Hammer patterns usually are signs of trend change and since the following week was positive, the chances for a continued move higher are now increased.
GBPUSD has support at the horizontal red line at 1.3676. If price breaks below last week's low at 1.3735 then we will have our fist sign of weakness. Given the current formation we are bullish as long as price is above 1.3735. A weekly close above 1.3980 would be a bullish sign and a sign that bulls remain in control of the trend. The horizontal support red line if broken will also activate a head and shoulders bearish pattern. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 01 Aug 2021 08:07 AM PDT Bitcoin is trading above $40,000 and is challenging both a downward sloping resistance and the horizontal resistance at $42,000. Bulls need to be cautious as there are some warning signs that the week might start with a pull back.
Bitcoin has reached an important resistance area that justifies a rejection and pull back in order to gather strength for more upside. The scenario where price breaks this resistance now has for me the lowest chances of success.
Red lines- wedge pattern Bitcoin is forming a wedge pattern and at the same time the RSI is warning bulls with a bearish divergence signal. This is not a reversal sign but only a warning that the upside trend is weakening. Support is at $39,700 and breaking below it will be a sign of weakness. The most probable scenario for me would be for price to continue inside the wedge towards $43,000-$44,000 and then break the wedge for a pull back towards $36,000. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| XRPUSD could start the week with a short-term pull back Posted: 01 Aug 2021 08:02 AM PDT XRPUSD has risen the last few days from $0.51 to $0.75. Price has now formed a wedge pattern that if broken downwards will justify a retracement in price.
XRPUSD has formed a wedge pattern and combined with lower highs by the RSI (bearish divergence) is a combination that justifies an imminent pull back. If price breaks below and out of the wedge pattern, I expect XRPUSD to pull back towards $0.66. This is not necessary to happy but technically it is justified. Bulls need to be cautious. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 01 Aug 2021 06:31 AM PDT According to the results of the past week, the Australian dollar paired with the US currency could not get out of the 100-point price range, within which it has been trading since July 16. The aussie has firmly established itself in the area of the 73rd figure, demonstrating, by and large,a wide-range flat. As soon as the pair overcomes the 0.7400 mark, it attracts bears who return the price to its previous positions. And vice versa - as soon as the pair approaches the bottom of the 73rd figure (with a hint of further decline), bulls are active, preventing the development of the downward scenario. This situation has been observed over the past two weeks. At the same time, the economic calendar for the pair was very busy – the July meeting of the US central bank, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to Congress, comments from representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), releases of the most important macroeconomic reports. But none of the listed fundamental factors moved the aussie from the designated price level. The future prospects of AU USD depend on three interrelated factors: the behavior of the US currency, the position of the RBA and the epidemiological situation in Australia. To date, all these factors are playing against the aussie, as a result of which the pair could not stay above the 0.7400 mark by the end of the week, and so it ended the trading five-day period at 0.7345. The situation may worsen for the aussie next week, as the RBA will announce the results of its next meeting on Tuesday.
It should be noted here that for almost the entire month of July, the aussie actually moved after the greenback – the Australian currency did not have its own ambitions. Traders of the pair even ignored a very good inflation release, which was published in Australia on July 28. Despite the strong growth in the consumer price index, the Australian dollar remained "led", focusing only on the behavior of the US currency, which, in turn, reacted to the results of the July Fed meeting and macroeconomic reports (in particular, on US GDP growth in the second quarter). This aussie's "lack of character" is quite understandable: given the recent coronavirus events in Australia, traders ignore macroeconomic reports, as RBA members can ignore them. The past "achievements" of the Australian economy are offset by new quarantine restrictions that were introduced in the country in early July. Let me remind you that after the Australians actually defeated the pandemic at the beginning of the year, the so-called "zero infection" policy was in effect in the country, under which the states sent citizens to strict quarantine even in the case of an increase with scanty indicators (3-10 cases per multimillion region). Despite such strict measures, in the middle of summer, the epidemiological situation began to deteriorate rapidly – the daily increase in cases exceeded at first the mark of 100 people, and then 200 people. For example, on July 29, 252 cases of infection were registered. For comparison, it can be noted that a month ago – on June 29-only 25 cases of COVID infection were detected. In 90% of new cases, we are talking about a new strain of "delta", which is more contagious. The authorities of the largest Australian states reacted to the situation instantly, "closing", in fact, half of the country's population to isolation. The most severe quarantine restrictions have been introduced in the states of Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia. Moreover, the authorities of the largest city in Australia - Sydney -the day before yesterday tightened the lockdown conditions. Since July 29, the strict quarantine regime, which has been lasting for five consecutive weeks, prescribes citizens not to leave their homes for more than 10 kilometers and go outside "only if necessary". According to preliminary estimates of the country's treasurer, a new wave of lockdowns costs the Australian economy $300 million a day. There is also no doubt that quarantine restrictions will affect the pace of recovery of the national economy. First of all, the labor market, which has just reached pre-crisis values, will be hit by the coronavirus crisis. Let me remind you that at the July meeting, the RBA announced the launch of the third round of QE, which will begin in September (that is, when the current round of the program ends). At the same time, the central bank has reduced the size of the incentive program compared to the previous two rounds. The next round of purchases will last at least until mid-November – at a weekly rate of 4 billion Australian dollars, instead of the current 5 billion. At the same time, the Australian central bank indicated that "in light of the high level of uncertainty regarding the prospects for the economy," in the future, the RBA will adhere to a flexible approach to increasing or reducing the size of weekly bond purchases. Taking into account the recent coronavirus events, it can be assumed that the RBA will voice exclusively dovish rhetoric at the August meeting, allowing for a softening of the parameters of monetary policy. Such prospects can put the strongest pressure on the Australian dollar. All this suggests that short positions on the AUD/USD pair are still a priority. The first target of the downward movement is the 0.7300 mark – this is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. If this target is overcome, it will be possible to talk about reaching the next support level of 0.7220 in the medium term, which corresponds to the lower border of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the average line of the Bollinger Bands on the monthly timeframe. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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