A market update from Martin Tillier!
Trade Update: Tweaking, but Holding On Interesting ride so far! I have to admit, when crude gave back all the gains this morning, I thought I had screwed up. After all, don't I always tell others that you are never wrong to take a profit? I could have banked a few thousand dollars and moved on, but I missed the chance. However, after a mixed API report, the EIA storage numbers were bullish across the board, with a draw on both crude and gasoline stocks and an increase in refinery activity. That prompted a bounce back to above $68 It is now tempting to take a "once bitten" approach and bank a nice profit here in case the $68.20 resistance that has now been formed holds again. However, there was one other thing in the report that makes me believe even more in the longer-term bull case for WTI and want to hang on and see if we can still go higher. U.S. crude oil production was unchanged on the week, and that is in line with recent trends. The price fluctuations we are seeing are not influencing supply much, so we are in a market driven almost completely by demand, and the outlook there is good. Gasoline consumption continues to be in an upward trend, and with new cases of Covid, Delta or otherwise, having seemingly peaked there is further to go on that front, and even a chance of renewed strength in jet fuel demand. Add in the now probable passage of around $4.5 trillion in fiscal stimulus and, whatever your views of the wisdom of that, the oil demand picture looks strong. So, I will take my chances. I am going to move my stop up slightly to $66.80, but I will be holding on and looking for a target above $69. Cheers, M |
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