Showing posts sorted by relevance for query withdrawal letter. Sort by date Show all posts

[31+] Sample Letter To Withdraw Application

View Images Library Photos and Pictures. Free Application Withdraw Letter Template Word Doc Google Docs Apple Mac Pages Outlook College Application Withdrawal Letter Sample Counseling Https Ec Europa Eu Esf Transnationality Sites Esf Files Tca Attachments Letter Of Intent Signed Pdf Sample Letter For Withdrawing College Application Admission Withdrawal Letter

AllBusiness.com

How Do Owners of an LLC or S Corporation Get Paid?
Best Retirement Investments That Produce Income
How to Assess a Job Candidate: Look for These 23 Things in Their Resume

How Do Owners of an LLC or S Corporation Get Paid?

Posted: 08 Dec 2019 11:31 AM PST

While the excitement and professional fulfillment of starting a business offer much gratification, most entrepreneurs also strive for the financial fruits (i.e., money) of their labors, too.

The way that small business owners get paid depends on the business entity type they've set up for their company. A business's legal structure also affects how business owners' income is taxed.

Generally, people who operate their small businesses as sole proprietorships or partnerships, which aren't formally registered business entities, can take money out of the business bank account to pay themselves.

But what about owners of limited liability companies (LLCs) and S Corporations?

Let's take a moment to discuss how LLC owners ("members") and S Corporation owners ("shareholders") get compensated.

Getting paid as an owner of an LLC

Generally, an LLC's owners cannot be considered employees of their company nor can they receive compensation in the form of wages and salaries.* Instead, a single-member LLC’s owner is treated as a sole proprietor for tax purposes, and owners of a multi-member LLC are treated as partners in a general partnership. To get paid by the business, LLC members take money out of their share of the company’s profits.

Here's an overview of how that usually works:

Single-member LLC

The owner of a single-member LLC withdraws money by taking an "owner's draw"—writing themselves a business check or (if their bank allows it) transferring money from the LLC bank account to the owner's personal bank account.

Multi-member LLC

Each LLC member has a capital account (a log of that member's membership share of the LLC and their financial activities). When members need money, they take a draw from the LLC, which is accounted for in the capital account. Draws are usually made via a business check written out to the member.

There may be other ways for LLC members to get paid for certain services that they provide to their company and it's critical to talk with a tax and accounting expert to understand your options.

Income taxes and the LLC

An attractive feature of the LLC business entity is the company does not pay taxes. Instead, the profits and losses of the LLC flow through to its members, who must report them on their personal income tax returns. When setting up an LLC, members decide if all owners will divide the company's profits evenly, or based on their ownership percentage, or according to some other formula that all agree on. Then, each member gets taxed on their distribution of profits.

For example, let’s say an LLC has two members, with one owning 60% of the company while the other owns 40%. The members have agreed that the distribution of profits should be equal to the members’ ownership percentages. In this scenario, the first member must report 60% of the LLC’s profits and losses on their personal tax return, and the other member must report 40% of the LLC’s profits or losses on their personal tax return.

AN IMPORTANT REMINDER: Owner's draws from an LLC are NOT paychecks. No federal or state income taxes nor Social Security and Medicare taxes are withheld from those payments. Under most circumstances, LLC members must make estimated tax payments every quarter to cover taxes due on their share of the LLC’s profits. The profits are taxed the same (whether they are taken as personal draws or remain in the business’s bank account).

*Note: If an LLC elects to be taxed as a corporation, the rule about members’ eligibility to be employees of the company is null. In that case, the company pays taxes directly to the IRS. Members can be employees and therefore report their wages, salaries, and dividends on their personal tax returns.

Getting paid as the owner of an S Corporation

An S Corporation is either an LLC or C Corporation that has elected for special tax treatment with the IRS. An S Corporation's income, losses, deductions, and credits pass through to its shareholders' personal federal income tax returns. Shareholders then report the business's income and losses on their personal tax returns and are taxed at their individual income tax rates.

Although LLCs and S Corps have pass-through tax treatment in common, there's a critical difference: An S Corporation's shareholders who do substantial work for the S Corp are considered employees. Therefore, the business must put them on its payroll and compensate them through wages or salaries—from which income taxes, Social Security and Medicare taxes (FICA), unemployment taxes (FUTA), and possibly other taxes are withheld.

An S Corp's remaining profits are paid out in distributions to the company's shareholders, who then report those distributions on their personal income tax returns. Unlike wages and salaries, distributions are not subject to FICA and FUTA taxes. Note that if distributions to any shareholder exceed that shareholder's stake in the business, that excess amount will be taxed as a long-term capital gain.

Other Articles From AllBusiness.com:

It’s not uncommon for S Corporation owners to run into trouble because they’ve paid themselves a suspiciously small salary and then take most of their compensation in the form of distributions to minimize the amount of FUTA and FICA payroll taxes they have to pay. Both the IRS and Social Security Administration are vigilant in tracking down people who try to game the system this way. The government expects that S Corp owners will pay themselves a “reasonable salary,” which depends on the industry and the scope of the shareholders’ duties.

If you’re considering operating as an S Corp, I suggest you do some research to determine what reasonable compensation will be for the work you’ll perform for your company. If the IRS believes you are substantially underpaid for the services you provide, it may require that you make adjustments to your tax returns, or it might even revoke your S Corporation status.

You can still take advantage of the self-employment tax-free distributions of an S Corp, as long as you pay yourself a reasonable salary.

Seek expertise

While the information I've shared in this article will help you understand the basics of how you can get paid as an LLC member or S Corporation shareholder, it is not a substitute for professional financial, tax, or legal advice. Ask a licensed accountant (and/or tax advisor) and attorney for guidance as you establish how your LLC or S Corp will compensate you for your investments of time, money, blood, sweat, and tears.

The post How Do Owners of an LLC or S Corporation Get Paid? appeared first on AllBusiness.com

The post How Do Owners of an LLC or S Corporation Get Paid? appeared first on AllBusiness.com. Click for more information about Nellie Akalp.

Best Retirement Investments That Produce Income

Posted: 08 Dec 2019 11:07 AM PST

By Paul Partridge

One of the most common questions we hear is "What is the best retirement investment?"

Spoiler alert: there is no one, single best investment for retirement accounts. That's because economic conditions change. Interest rates change. We have to monitor and adjust our portfolio to changing circumstances.

So let's broaden the question from what is the best investment for retirement to what are the best retirement investments? A sensible investment strategy is to have several different assets in your portfolio so you're prepared to navigate all different types of market climates.

But first, a question: Can you live solely on interest earned from your bank savings account? Most retirees can't. We need our investments to produce income to maintain our lifestyle–and pay the bills that continue after we stop working.

That's why I'll focus here on the best investments for retirement that produce income. Because after our working paychecks stop, income is what sustains us during retirement.

Here are the most common income producing options:

1. Social Security

Most men and women don't think of Social Security as an asset. But it absolutely is. It's a guaranteed income stream that pays you for life.

Many of our clients stand to collect over $1 million in Social Security benefits in retirement. It's in your best interest to understand and manage this asset.

There are hundreds of ways to collect Social Security, so it pays to talk to an expert who can help you maximize your benefits. Most people just take it starting the day they retire. This can be a costly mistake.

Also, how you take your benefit will impact your spouse if you die first, and vice versa. So it's worth understanding all your options.

2. Retirement income funds

Retirement income funds are low-maintenance mutual funds for retirees. Typically, they're diversified in conservative stocks and bonds. The goal of the fund is to produce monthly or quarterly income that can supplement other sources of retirement income.

Most of the big mutual fund companies offer these actively managed funds. There's usually a required minimum investment, and fund holders pay fees similar to other mutual fund products.

Pros: Men and women who don't like to spend much time on their investments find retirement income funds attractive. There's a certain set-it-and-forget-it appeal to them, similar to index funds.

Cons: Retirement income funds are exposed to stock market risk just like mutual funds are. Because people don't pay regular attention to them, we've seen instances where retirees go several months before they realize they've had a significant loss. Also, the retirement income is not guaranteed.

Will your investments generate sufficient income to ensure a comfortable retirement?

3. Bonds

When you buy a bond you're loaning money to a company, government, or municipality. In return, the entity pays you interest on the loan (usually semi-annually) until the maturity date, when you receive a lump sum payment equal to the bond's face value.

Bonds can be purchased individually or bundled together in mutual funds or ETFs. The interest rate set at issuance remains fixed throughout the life of the bond.

The price of a bond varies according to the bond's interest and how that rate compares to prevailing interest rates. Generally, when interest rates go down, the price of bonds rises; when interest rates rise, the price of bonds goes down. In this way, bond buyers are subject to interest rate risk—the risk that your bond can lose value when interest rates fluctuate.

One way to hedge interest rate risk is to purchase bonds in a "bond ladder," a collection of bonds with different maturity dates. Each rung of the ladder represents a different interest rate.

U.S. Treasury notes and bonds are considered among the safest investment options available, with very low credit risk. Treasury notes have maturities between two and 10 years; Treasury bonds have 30-year terms.

Municipal bonds are issued by state, county, and municipal governments and their agencies. The interest you earn is free from federal income tax. You may also avoid state and local taxes if you live in the state where the municipal bonds are purchased, or if you live in a state without state income tax.

Investors concerned about inflation purchase Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). TIPS pay interest plus additional principal tied to increases in the Consumer Price Index.

Corporate bonds usually pay higher interest rates than government bonds because they have greater credit risk. "Junk bonds" are bonds rated below investment grade.

4. Dividend-paying stocks and mutual funds

Dividend-paying stocks are the “Doublemint Gum” of investments—a way to "double your pleasure." You get the benefits of owning stocks plus the benefits of owning bonds. In other words, you have the potential for both growth and income.

Many large corporations pay dividends on their stocks. A dividend is simply a portion of a company's net profit that is paid to its stockholders. Dividends are paid on common stock, preferred stock, mutual fund shares, and American depository receipts (ADRs). Companies usually pay dividends quarterly in cash or in shares of stock.

Cash dividends are taxed at the federal, state, and local level—ordinarily at 15%. Stock dividends are not taxed until the shares are sold.

Pros: The potential for income and capital appreciation. Dividend-paying stocks often outperform growth stocks in bear markets, since investors start to favor income over growth.

Cons: Stocks are subject to market risk. Also, corporations are not required to pay dividends to stockholders; they're paid at the discretion of the company's board of directors depending on the profitability of the company. So, unlike interest on a bond, a dividend is not automatic.

Other Articles From AllBusiness.com:

5. Rental real estate

Researching, finding, buying, fixing up, renting out, and managing property for income is not for everyone—especially for retirees looking for a relaxed lifestyle. But for those with real estate experience who understand the potential pitfalls, home or apartment rentals can be among the best investments for retirement income.

Pros: Property rentals can produce steady income, tax breaks, and equity growth.

Cons: Being a landlord requires hands-on involvement. Housing prices are cyclical and can drop significantly, as we saw in 2007 to 2010. Expenses include renovation, maintenance, property damage, taxes, advertising, and vacancy rates, to name a few.

6. Real estate investment trusts (REITs)

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a type of mutual fund that manages a portfolio of real estate or mortgages to earn profits for shareholders. Equity REITs own real estate directly. Shareholders receive income from rents received, and capital gains when property is sold at a profit. Mortgage REITs lend money to building developers and share interest income with shareholders.

REIT investors typically are seeking income and capital appreciation (as opposed to write-offs). Because REITs are not correlated with the stock market, some believe that REITs are good investments to hold when stock markets are underperforming.

Pros: REITs can provide income, diversification, appreciation, and professional management. In general, real estate is not considered liquid but REITs are, because REITs can be traded daily.

Cons: Commercial real estate prices experience booms and busts. REITs do not provide depreciation write-offs and losses are not passed through to shareholders.

7. Equity index annuity (with a lifetime income rider)

In recent years, an increasing number of retirees are using equity index annuities in place of bonds for the "safe" portion of their portfolio. The main reasons are principal protection and higher potential returns without market risk or interest rate risk.

An equity index annuity (also known as fixed index annuity) is a contract between you and an insurance company. You pay a premium to the insurance company and the issuer promises to make future, recurring payments to you similar to a pension plan.

For a fee, you can add an optional benefit called a rider. The rider provides the certainty of a stable income stream that pays you as long as you live–and as long as your spouse lives if the contract is set up that way. If you die early, the remainder goes to your beneficiaries.

It's important not to confuse equity index annuities with variable annuities, which are subject to market loss and often have high fees.

Pros: A personal pension plan that protects your money and provides guaranteed income for life—even if you live to 120*. Some annuity companies offer an upfront bonus as well.

Cons: Like a CD, you can't access all your money during the contract term without a surrender charge (many companies allow for 10% withdrawal per year penalty-free). In exchange for a lifetime income, you give up the opportunity for large upside market gains.

* Guarantees are based on the claims-paying ability of the insurance company.

8. Other options

There are other effective ways to generate income in retirement, including closed-end funds, limited partnerships, covered calls, peer-to-peer lending, and defined outcome ETFs. There's even a way to use life insurance to produce tax-free retirement income.

But these options are a bit more complicated and require longer explanations than we have room for here.

Summary

Generating sufficient income to assure a comfortable, stress-free retirement is a challenge that's become even more difficult in recent years. Each of these strategies can be helpful depending upon your risk profile, interest/ability to monitor and manage investments, and your income needs.

About the Author

Post by: Paul Partridge

Paul Partridge is a registered financial consultant who helps his clients get on track–or back on track–with their retirement dreams. His specialty is collaborating with women and men who want to enjoy a safe, secure, and reliable retirement plan. After receiving his business degree from the University of Notre Dame, Paul enjoyed a successful business career and his clients have included some of the world's top companies: American Express, AT&T, Merrill Lynch, and Bank of America. For more information on retirement investments, click here to receive a free copy of “Your Personal Financial Help Center,” a financial and retirement planning guide.

Company: Sage Financial Partners
Website: www.sagefinancialpartners.com
Connect with me on LinkedIn.

The post Best Retirement Investments That Produce Income appeared first on AllBusiness.com

The post Best Retirement Investments That Produce Income appeared first on AllBusiness.com. Click for more information about Guest Post.

How to Assess a Job Candidate: Look for These 23 Things in Their Resume

Posted: 08 Dec 2019 09:10 AM PST

Revised and updated Dec. 8, 2019

Companies receive a lot of resume, and deciding which candidates to bring in for an in-person interview can be a hard decision. For many hiring managers, it all starts with what’s on the applicant’s resume. What element makes a resume stand out, allowing that person to move on to the next round of the hiring process?

To find out more, we asked Young Entrepreneur Council (YEC) members the following question:

Q. What’s one thing a resume must have in order for you to invite the candidate in for an in-person interview?

1. Proof

I always look for proof. If a resume tells me that someone is an expert in AI, I ask myself: “Where’s the evidence?” In order to take a resume seriously, I need concrete evidence for every skill listed, whether it’s a project they built, code they wrote, or even strong references. —Frederik Bussler, AngelStarter

2. Effort

You can tell the difference between a candidate who typed up their resume in five minutes, versus one who spent hours crafting an informative and impressive resume prior to applying. People who put effort into writing their resume instantly win favor in my book. —Blair Williams, MemberPress

3. Accomplishments

Instead of just listing their skills, I look for candidates who list their accomplishments on their resume. For instance, instead of only listing “social media marketing” as a skill, I like to see an accomplishment related to it, such as “I grew the company’s Facebook group by attracting 2,000 new members in three months.” Anyone can list a skill on their resume, but the results are even better. —Stephanie Wells, Formidable Forms

4. Soft Skills

If a candidate doesn’t take the time to tell me how they work well with others, communicate, listen, etc., then it’s not someone I’m keen on interviewing. Businesses require soft skills just as much as technical skills, if not more. You can always build onto your technical expertise, but behavioral habits are much more difficult to make and break. —Jared Atchison, WPForms

5. Track record of success

A resume must show qualitative or quantitative results you have accomplished for other employers. This shows a track record of meeting goals and achieving objectives for companies or organizations you’ve worked for. —Serenity Gibbons, NAACP

Other Articles From AllBusiness.com:

6. Character

Our business is the sum of everyone who works for us. We are all humans with interests, personalities, and families. When I am looking through resumes, I try to pick people who demonstrate that they are charismatic and have character through their writing. These people are usually creative and talented, making them assets for my company. —Syed Balkhi, WPBeginner

7. Good writing

I look for proper grammar, active voice, and strong writing when reviewing and sorting through resumes. If I notice typos, grammatical errors, or other syntax issues, then I will put the resume into the “trash pile.” If a candidate can’t take a minute to proofread their resume, then there’s no reason why I should move them onto the next round. —Kristin Kimberly Marquet, Marquet Media, LLC

8. Applicable talent stack

The resumes that I find the most appealing are the ones that demonstrate a combination of relevant skills and experiences. Instead of just focusing on one or two skills, a candidate with a “talent stack” of five or so key strengths is an extremely valuable asset to any company. These individuals are extremely versatile workers and have a clear desire to grow with their companies. —Bryce Welker, The Big 4 Accounting Firms

9. Loyalty

I want to see a few work experiences that last more than a year from good companies that we also resonate with or respect. I also want to see character references from these companies. If you have character references, then you won my heart! —Daisy Jing, Banish

10. Tailored content

One thing that's important to get an interview here is a resume that has some tailored content. If you're not able to speak to how your experience makes you a fit for the company and position, then it's not likely going to work. A resume should be a story about the candidate, but that story should be tailored to the job and company. —Baruch Labunski, Rank Secure

11. Authenticity

So many resumes are stuffed with boasting capabilities and unnecessary technical jargon. It makes a huge difference to receive a resume where the applicant clearly outlines their experience with authentic descriptions. This means they took the time to reflect, understand their input in the company, and stayed humble along the journey. Being genuine showcases their honesty. —Dalip Jaggi, Devise Interactive

12. The right keywords

Employers want to know ahead of time that you are really qualified for the job. With so many tasks to complete in a day, hiring managers typically skim through resumes to ID certain keywords that match the job. The key to a strong resume is to make a list of skills required for the position that matches your experience. Choose keywords with the strongest match to be used throughout your resume. —Blair Thomas, eMerchantBroker

13. Emphasis on results over responsibilities

All of our best hires have come from applicants who on their resume (and in-person) put an emphasis on the results they’ve gotten in their roles, not the responsibilities they had. If they don’t have this on their resume, we don’t disqualify them but ask about it in the interview. If they start going around it and saying “We achieved X,” we dig deeper into their role in achieving these results. —Karl Kangur, Above House

14. Transferable skills

When candidates take the time to make their previous work experience applicable to the job, that shows that they understand the job they’re applying to and understand transferable skills. A list of unrelated skills on a resume makes it seem like the resume was not written for the specific job description and just printed off and handed out to many—which can be a red flag. —Diego Orjuela, Cables & Sensors

15. Positivity

The second I look at an application and see a potential new hire trash-talking their boss, I instantly put down the resume. Negative emotions breed negativity in others, and that’s not something you want floating around your business. I look for people who are positive and passionate. —David Henzel, LTVPlus

16. Relevance

Hiring managers primarily look for one thing on resumes: relevance. This includes experience that is relevant to the job description and special skills that are relevant to the preferred qualifications. A candidate whose resume is clear, concise, and that draws these direct parallels will always make the short list and be invited to interview. —Jackie Ducci, Ducci & Associates

17. Length of employment

Our businesses have been around for over a decade, and we plan to be around for many more decades to come. I need long-term team members who can learn about our company and help push growth forward while moving up in the company. I do not even read resumes of people with less than five years at their last company unless they are just out of college or experienced a major life event. —Brandon Stapper, Nonstop Signs

18. Alignment of core values

A candidate with strong potential will study our website and incorporate our core values somewhere in their resume or cover letter. Even if a potential employee doesn’t directly address the values, we look for words and indications that show an alignment to our values, such as proactiveness or positivity. —Beck Bamberger, BAM Communications

19. Quality references

If a job candidate is willing to put high-level references down, that tells me they worked hard at their previous job and are proud to have others speak on their behalf. If what I see is a collection of references from 10 years ago, red flags go up. —Colbey Pfund, LFNT Distribution

20. Decent formatting

Even if a candidate has relevant experience, there are a blinding myriad of CVs to review. The keywords we look for are sometimes hidden in resume formats that do not help highlight experience. We’re looking for relevance or a quality in the candidate that convinces us they can complete the work. —Codie Sanchez, www.CodieSanchez.com

21. Ability to follow directions

The only real information I get from a resume is an overview of how well an applicant reads a listing and follows the instructions therein. I’ll ask for something specific, just to gauge the applicant’s responsiveness, but then I immediately move on to their portfolio. I rarely feel like I get a real sense of a person from a one page list of skills. —Thursday Bram, The Responsible Communication Style Guide

22. Growth

When evaluating resumes, I look for growth. Has this candidate grown from job to job? Has their position escalated in each job location? If not, then they were seemingly treading water, which is not what I want. I want people who are hungry. —Adrien Schmidt, Bouquet.ai

23. Something memorable

The resumes that stand out do something different. They don’t just focus on education and experience—they give an idea of who the person really is. Completed a marathon? It shows a level of commitment; you worked full-time while earning your degree? Powerful—it shows that you have a strong work ethic. Share what you normally wouldn’t put on a resume. That way you’ll be memorable. —Antonio Neves, THINQACTION Inc.

These answers are provided by Young Entrepreneur Council (YEC), an invite-only organization comprised of the world's most successful young entrepreneurs. YEC members represent nearly every industry, generate billions of dollars in revenue each year and have created tens of thousands of jobs. Learn more at yec.co.

The post How to Assess a Job Candidate: Look for These 23 Things in Their Resume appeared first on AllBusiness.com

The post How to Assess a Job Candidate: Look for These 23 Things in Their Resume appeared first on AllBusiness.com. Click for more information about YEC.

Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast
Dollar Holds Off Collapse on GDP Hopes Which the Fed Will Make or Break
Pound Weekly Technical Outlook in GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD
British Pound Forecast Weakens as Hard Brexit Odds Rise
FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY
FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: UK Inflation, Canada Inflation, Fed Meeting, New Zealand GDP, BOJ Meeting
Gold Price Explodes to Fresh Yearly Highs
Net-Short Positions Increased by 20% from Last Week
Dollar, Euro, WTI Crude Oil, and Gold Price Chart Set-ups for Next Week

Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

Posted: 15 Jun 2019 03:32 AM PDT

Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

The Dow Jones aims to consolidate after its recent rebound and ahead of Wednesday's FOMC
The DAX 30 remains caught between two diverging trendlines
The FTSE 100 will look to hold above a key trendline from early January

Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

The week ahead is loaded with event risk as the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are set to decide on their interest rate range. With the major indices consolidating in the latter half of last week, each has developed a springboard that it will look to launch from as volatility arises next week. Here are the levels to watch.

Dow Jones Technical Forecast: Bullish

The Dow Jones rocketed from May lows the last two weeks and has begun to consolidate above 26,000. Immediately to the topside, the Industrial Average will have to first surmount a trendline from mid-February which stalled an attempted move higher last Monday and Tuesday. Beyond that, technical resistance becomes less clear and if fundamental catalysts unfold as expected, May highs may provide secondary resistance.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (March – June) (Chart 1)

Conversely, minor support around 25,988 may assist in further consolidation. Beneath 25,988, confluent Fib levels around 25,800 will look to provide subsequent support. If all else fails, the 200-day moving average around 25,450 will come into play.

Check out our Free Trading Guides for quarterly forecasts, beginner tips and more.

DAX 30 Technical Forecast: Bullish

The DAX 30 remains beneath the ascending trendline from January, but now enjoys lift from a descending trendline from early May. The two levels will offer resistance and support respectively. To the lower side, the 38.2% Fib retracement around 12,000 will join the descending trendline and provide a confluent area of support. Thus, the Index looks to begin next week with a relatively buoyant technical landscape.

DAX 30 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (March – June) (Chart 2)

FTSE 100 Technical Forecast: Bullish

After a brief break below in late May and early June, the FTSE 100 has recaptured the ascending trendline from January and will look to it for support moving forward. Similarly, the 23.6% Fib level at 7,297 will bolster the Index's position.

FTSE 100 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (April – June) (Chart 3)

As for resistance, topside levels to watch exist around May's swing high at 7,375 and at June's high around 7,425. If these levels are dispensed of, topside targets will extend their reach to April highs around 7,531. Again, given the fundamental gravity of the week ahead – notable volatility should be expected, and we could see drastic swings for the major global indices. For technical updates throughout next week, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-15 10:00:00

Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.

Dollar Holds Off Collapse on GDP Hopes Which the Fed Will Make or Break

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 05:51 PM PDT

Fed Talking Points:

Dollar enjoyed a key rally that averted a true breakdown with help of retail sales data which beat back recession fears
Trade wars remain a top concern and candidate for market volatility as China’s economy slows and Broadcom reports a $2bln revenue hit
The Fed’s Wednesday rate decision is top event risk, carrying far more responsibility for market stability than it should

Do you trade on fundamental themes or event risk? See what live events we will cover on DailyFX ahead (uch as the US sentiment live data event) as well as our regular webinar series meant to help you hone your trading.

A Timely Dollar Rally That Taps Into Growth Relief

For the favored measures of risk appetite, this past week offered an unmistakable loss of traction in an otherwise encouraging recovery effort mounted at the start of June. While most of the speculative benchmarks were slow to follow from more deelpy discounted levels compounded over the past year, the Dow and S&P 500 rode the wave early and attempted to extend the run to record highs. With the loss of momentum this past week, there is little chance enthusiasm will simply sweep over the market once again. Our fate is now in the hands of high-level themes, some of which that aren’t tracked out for definitive updates (like trade wars) and others (such as monetary policy) which are focused on a single, overriding event. While there is considerable turbulence to be found in geopolitical uncertainties, trade wars and the trajectory of economic activity; the Fed rate decision on Wednesday is the unmistakable beacon of potential in the week ahead. While a key event for the Dollar, the implications for growth and need to hold back the pressure in trade wars will make for an event with far more reach.

Chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average with 200-day Moving Average (Daily)

As we closed out this past week, there was a sense of calm-before-the-storm for many of the traditional ‘risk’ assets. The exception was the US Dollar and those assets that carry a direct inference to its pricing capacity. While the Greenback was just as distracted by the event risk in the week ahead, the anxiety of anticipation wound the market up enough that a fundamental cross current could trigger a move that essentially fell into the category of ‘following the path of least resistance’. The DXY opened the trading week at cusp of reversal on a 12-month rising trendline (and just above the 200-day moving average) while the EURUSD had technically made its break above channel resistance (though it too was still yielding to its own 200-day moving average). With a high bar to mounting true conviction, it was natural for the currency to flag similar to how the Dow had. Yet, that tempered lean turned into outright recovery through Friday.

Chart of DXY Dollar Index with 200-day Moving Average (Daily)

The spark on Friday to pull the Dollar back comfortably into its well-worn range were a few coinciding cues that spoke to relief to a slowly but consistently eroding outlook for growth. Through week’s end, the US May retail sales perked up confidence significantly when it was reported that purchases rose 0.5 percent for the month (both with and without autos), but the real surprise was the revision higher for April. What was previously registered as a -0.2 percent contraction – a reading that translated into fears that the US economy was visibly stalling – as revised up to 0.3 percent expansion. That offered enough optimism to offset the concern around the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey printing a slide (97.9 following 100.0) – though the jump in the Atlanta Fed 2Q GDP forecast (2.1 versus 1.4 percent) and New York Fed’s forecast (1.4 versus 1.0 percent) certainly helped the cause. Now, in the middle of its range, the price of conviction and technical progress is once again substantially higher.

Chart of EURUSD with 100 and 200-Day Moving Average and Daily Change (Daily)

The Market Is Putting Far Too Much Hope On the Federal Reserve

Looking out over the new trading week, there is good reason to suspect that we will face all of the major themes that we have been dealing with regularly as of late. Despite what the US sales figures and regional Fed GDP assessments may have offered this past week, there is serious restraint on the outlook for growth in the global economy and its largest individual member. The most direct measure of economic tempo ahead is Friday’s run of June PMIs (Japan, Australia, Eurozone and the US). The most often cited, top threat to economic activity moving forward, trade wars, will be just as prominent in the rounds of speculation. This past week, President Trump increased confusion over the state of negotiations with China and Mexico. In turn, 600-plus companies from retail, technology and other key sectors signed a letter to the White House, calling on Administration to resovle the trade war as the pain was starting to set in for the US economy. To reinforce that point on Friday, Broadcom cut its revenue outlook by $2 billion due to ‘geopolitical uncertainties’ and the loss of business by its largest customer – Huawei which was infamously banned last month.

Chart of Broadcom Stock and Opening Gaps (Daily)

The global economy is unmistakably slowing, external pressures from protectionism are increasing and competitive policies are starting to raise the specter of serious volatility. Investor, economist and President are increasingly turning to the Federal Reserve to put out the fires. Unfortunately, it is impossible to live up to all of the demands. Wednesday’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision is the most appropriate opportunity to offer a critical update on the intention for support because the markets both need the reassurance and this will be one of the ‘quarterly’ events in which the group will announce rates, Chairman Powell will offer insight and answer questions, and the forecasts will be updated. At this point, the market has fully priced in at least two rate cuts from through group through year’s end and there is debate over a third. That would be an aggressive reversal from multiple hikes still anticipated for 2019 up until the end of last year. Simply starting a slow path of easing may disappoint the charged risk forecast while matching the expected pace could signal a sense of panic from the key policy group. There is a very high probability of volatility and a troublingly high chance of disappointment.

FOMC Scenario Table

Expect Indirect Blast for the Euro, Gold and Oil

Between the conflicting forces of hope arising from Fed support to the crushing impact from trade wars, the result is a greater uncertainty over the future of economic strength. It is hard to escape from so systemic an influence, and very few markets can reasonable be expected to be exempt from its gravity. If the Dollar is charged, expect the benchmark currency cross EURUSD to transmit a strong impact through the Euro. Beyond just a mirror to the world’s most liquid currency, the Euro is also facing uncertainty in the form of financial and monetary policy stability with Union members like Italy threatening to ignore the rules while EU officials are contemplating hefty fines. Add to that the frequent threats by Donald Trump to turn tariffs onto Europe – whether on Germany for Nord Stream 2, retaliation for Airbus subsidies or blanket auto tariffs – and we are left with a constant state of anxiety. There is good reason for the currency to flag, and yet, it has held back the tide. How long?

Chart of EURAUD and Consecutive Candle Count (Daily)

When it comes to the Dollar and economic stability, there is an inevitable stake for gold and crude oil. For the precious metal, the role of safe haven and inflation hedge are distant seconds to the principle role of ‘stable alternative to traditional currencies’ which is so desperately needed. If the Fed is successful in calming risk-based fears with a substantial swell in its accommodation, the Greenback will drop in value sharply but it is unlikely cause a systemic turn in expectations for underlying growth. That means that the US and other global currencies will feel the pressure of economic struggle and the increasing competitiveness in policy efforts which will unifromly devalue the most liquid stores of wealth. If Dollar, Euro, Pound and Yen are all diving, there is only one non-traditional alternative markets are comfortable to entertain: gold.

Chart of Gold and Daily Tails (Daily)

Meanwhile, oil has spent months proving that its focus has shifted away from volatile supply side economics. The sharp drop in OPEC output to five-year lows reported this past month has done little to turn the commodity higher. That is not particularly surprising as we have seen the pace of expansion flag and thereby demand follow in tandem. Growth forecasts and benchmark risk assets like the Dow should be tracked more closely than inventory updates for market movement, but that doesn’t mean we should fully ignore headlines like the escalating tension between the US and Iran. We discuss all of this and more in this weekend Trading Video.

If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here.

2019-06-15 00:08:00

Pound Weekly Technical Outlook in GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 03:11 PM PDT

GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCHF Technical Outlook

After a GBPUSD bounce last week was driven by a sell-off in the US Dollar, bears came back into Cable to push prices right back down towards prior lows.
Next week brings a couple of key events that could keep GBPUSD on the move. Out of the UK, CPI and the Bank of England are on the calendar. But, perhaps more pertinent to GBPUSD at the moment, the FOMC hosts a rate decision on Wednesday that will keep USD-pairs in-focus.

GBPUSD Heads Back Down After Last Week's Support Bounce

Sellers came back into Cable this week, helping to not only erase the entirety of last week's gains but to push prices back-down towards the prior May lows. To be sure, these dynamics likely have a strong relationship with recent themes in the US Dollar; as last week's aggressive sell-off in USD was retraced this week after the currency ran into a big area of support on the chart.

In GBPUSD, that bounce from last week could be compared to other major pairs in the effort of gauging future potential. As looked at on Tuesday, the bounce in Cable was milder than what was seen elsewhere in pairs like EURUSD, alluding to the fact that GBP continues to show a lack of significant strength, even in a backdrop in which the US Dollar is getting hammered by falling rate expectations.

The primary obstacle around GBPUSD at the moment is next week's economic calendar combined with a cloudier backdrop around the US Dollar. The USD has already clawed back a portion of last week's losses, and next week's FOMC rate decision will likely keep the currency in the spotlight. Given the fact that the Bank of England hosts a rate decision less than 24 hours later, and this may not be the best time to start a directional strategy on the pair. Put simply, greener pastures may be available elsewhere depending on which direction a trader wants to take the British Pound; specifically in pairs such as GBPJPY or GBPCHF which I look at below.

GBPUSD Technical Forecast: Neutral

GBPUSD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBPJPY Builds Bearish Engulf on the Weekly

For short-side GBP strategies, GBPJPY can remain of interest. The pair similarly bounced last week from a key zone of support. But this week's price action was a bit more telling given the build of a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart. Such a formation will often be looked at for directional continuation, in this case pointing-lower; and this can keep the door open for bearish strategies in the pair. Short-side target potential could be sought around the 135.42 Fibonacci level, the 135.00 psychological level and then the 133.70 area, which is confluent between a bullish trend-line and the 88.6% retracement of the 2019 major move in the pair.

GBPJPY Technical Forecast: Bearish

GBPJPY Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBPAUD Builds Morning Star at Fibonacci Support

If a trader wants to buy a currency of questionable strength, it's probably best to try to match that up with a weaker currency. In FX-land at the moment, a couple of currencies that could be picked on are the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. For next week, I've chosen GBPAUD as the pair retains some more attractive bullish qualities from longer-term perspectives.

This week has seen the build of a morning star formation in GBPAUD, punctuated by last week's Doji at Fibonacci support and this week's bullish move that retraced at least half of the previous week's sell-off. The fact that this formation built in the spot that it did is what keeps bullish aspirations alive in the pair. This was the same support level that had helped to arrest the declines in April, and this price now marks the three-month-low in the pair. Top-side target potential could be sought out at the 1.8500 psychological level, the 1.8675 Fibonacci level, and/or the 1.8811 marker that currently constitutes the three-year-high in the pair.

GBPAUD Technical Forecast: Bullish

GBPAUD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Oil or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at.

If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-14 22:00:00

British Pound Forecast Weakens as Hard Brexit Odds Rise

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 01:57 PM PDT

Brexit Latest Talking Points:

The first round of the UK's Tory party leadership contest saw Boris Johnson (114 votes) easily blow past other contenders, with the second (Jeremy Hunt – 43 votes) and third (Michael Gove – 37 votes) place finishers falling well-behind.
The likely ascendance of Boris Johnson as the next Tory party leader has rekindled fears of a no deal, hard Brexit come October.
Changes in retail trader positioning suggest that more losses may be on the way for the British Pound, no matter where you look.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the British Pound? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The British Pound is ending the first half of June on weak footing. Selling pressures began in earnest on Thursday after former London mayor, prominent Brexiteer, and hopeful resident of 10 Downing Street Boris Johnson cruised to an easy victory in the first round of the Tory leadership elections. Cleaning up 40% of the vote, Johnson easily beat the second (Jeremy Hunt – 43 votes) and third (Michael Gove – 37 votes) place finishers.

Why is the British Pound Falling?

The likely ascendance of Boris Johnson as the next Tory party leader, and therefore, the next likely opponent to Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn in a UK general election, has rekindled fears of a no deal, hard Brexit come October. It should be noted that the top five vote getters in the Tory party leadership balloting were all for a no deal, hard Brexit if necessary, and historically for decades, Labour's Corbyn has been anti-EU (which is part of the reason why we’ve held the belief that if Corbyn becomes UK prime minister, the British Pound may not recover).

Hard Brexit Odds Rising

While Johnson is willing to renegotiate the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement (something that former UK PM Theresa May was unwilling to do), he does not want to see Article 50 extended any further and therefore is prepared to leave the EU at the end of October 2019 with or without a deal. Traders are looking ahead and seeing a future where, regardless of what results the Tory party leadership elections yield, the next UK prime minister is going to be pro-Brexit and therefore unwilling to take the steps necessary to avoid a no deal, hard Brexit come October.

Brexit Timeline – What’s Next?

Over the next few days, there are several events traders should keep an eye on as the Brexit saga begins to heat up again, including over the weekend, according to my colleague Justin McQueen's review of what's next for Brexit:

June 16: Channel 4 will host the first live televised debate among the Tory candidates; frontrunner Boris Johnson is not expected to attend this debate.

June 18: A second Tory party leadership vote will take place where the minimum vote threshold for advancing to another round of voting increases from 17 to 32. The candidates will also be invited to a live debate on the BBC; frontrunner Boris Johnson is expected to attend this debate.

June 19-20: Up to four more rounds of voting will be held over the two-day period until just two candidates remain on the ballot.

June 22: The 160,000 Tory party members will start voting to determine who will become next leader and go on to face a no confidence vote in UK parliament, and if necessary, a UK general election.

July 22: The date at which the next Tory party leader PM is expected to be announced. If so, Theresa May will officially resign and Buckingham Palace will on the new Tory party leader to form a government. If the new Tory party leader fails to do so and fails a no confidence vote in UK parliament, then a general election will be held.

With the latest Brexit news rekindling the fears of a no deal, hard Brexit, the British Pound has been dragged lower in recent days: GBPJPY is set for its lowest close since the January Yen flash crash; GBPUSD is due for its lowest close of 2019; and EURGBP is set for its highest close since mid-January. Traders should be warned that the recent trend of British Pound weakness may continue into next week, at least according to recent shifts in positioning.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPUSD Price Forecast (June 14, 2019) (Chart 1)

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 81.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.31 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 6 when GBPUSD traded near 1.30551; price has moved 3.6% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jun 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.26892. The number of traders net-long is 3.4% higher than yesterday and 7.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.0% lower than yesterday and 17.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPJPY Price Forecast (June 14, 2019) (Chart 2)

GBPJPY: Retail trader data shows 79.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.94 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 6 when GBPJPY traded near 145.425; price has moved 6.0% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% lower than yesterday and 2.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.1% lower than yesterday and 27.0% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURGBP Price Forecast (June 14, 2019) (Chart 3)

EURGBP: Retail trader data shows 19.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 4.09 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 9 when EURGBP traded near 0.85006; price has moved 4.8% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 14.9% lower than yesterday and 19.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.4% higher than yesterday and 5.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURGBP prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURGBP-bullish contrarian trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-14 20:30:00

FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 12:44 PM PDT

EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDJPY Talking Points:

The US Dollar put in a week of recovery following the prior-week sell-off, with a big area of confluent support helping to hold the lows.
Next week will see the US Dollar remain on center-stage for what's anticipated to be a widely-watched FOMC rate decision. Will the Fed's dot plot matrix meet the market's demands for future rate cuts? Below I look at two setups on either side of this theme.

US Dollar Recovers from Confluent Support Ahead of FOMC

The US Dollar put in another interesting week but in stark contrast to the first week of June, prices rallied for much of the period. While the prior sell-off was being driven by lower rate expectations around the Federal Reserve, a re-ascension towards the highs in US equities combined with some not-that-bad inflation data and a strong retail sales report brings that theme into question. And while next week may not bring that move out of the Fed that's been getting priced-in, the big question is whether the bank's forecasts will show the three full rate cuts by the end of 2019 that markets have begun to price-in.

Last Friday saw the Dollar plummet to a key area on the chart after the release of Non-Farm Payrolls. The price of 96.47 is a Fibonacci level, and this was confluent with the 200-day moving average. That support has since held the lows, and this week saw buyers come back, particularly on Friday on the heels of a better-than-expected retail sales report. This sets the stage for what's expected to be a very interesting week on the economic calendar with the Federal Reserve set to announce their June rate decision on Wednesday.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURUSD: Welcome Back, 1.1212

Perhaps most noticeable around the US Dollar's sell-off last week was strength in EURUSD. Other major pairs remained more subdued, such as GBPUSD or AUDUSD, which had actually already started to turn-lower. But in EURUSD, as the Dollar pushed-lower buyers bid the pair up to fresh two-month-highs. And while this move may have been sourced from more of a short-squeeze than a legitimate ramp of positive enthusiasm, the case remains that the topside of EURUSD may be attractive should USD-bears continue to push.

For this week, I wanted to see a pullback to the support zone that runs from 1.1248-1.1265. Friday saw prices cut right through that zone without much of a show from buyers, and a deeper zone soon came into play. This is an area on the chart that I've been looking at in these pieces for almost eight months now; coming back into play last November as the sell-off in the pair found support. For next week, a hold above the 1.1187 Fibonacci level keeps the door open for topside strategies, targeting an initial move towards 1.1248-1.1265, after which secondary targets could be addressed around the 1.1325 level that functioned as the April swing-high. Beyond that, resistance from the longer-term range comes into play in the region that runs from 1.1448-1.1500.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCAD Bounces From Two-Month Lows, Can Bulls Continue to Push?

Last week I had looked at the long side of USDCAD, largely basing the setup off of a hold of two-month-lows around the 1.3250 psychological level. And after a bit of grind to start the week, the pair perked-up, gaining approximately 175 pips and running into a Fibonacci level at 1.3423. This move helped to invalidate potential short-side themes, and with prices working back into the prior range, there may be more room to go, particularly if USD-strength comes back as a dominant theme next week.

USDCAD Eight-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

I had looked into USDCAD again earlier this morning, attempting to use a prior zone of support as fresh resistance for lower-high potential. That did not come into play, as buyers just continued to push beyond that area on the chart, eventually finding a bit of resistance at the 1.3423 Fibonacci level. The pace with which those gains priced-in, combined with the area on the chart in which they showed up makes the bearish case less attractive and, instead, can keep the door open for topside approaches in the pair.

For next week, a pullback to support in the zone that runs from 1.3361-1.3385 can keep the door open for bulls. Topside target potential exists at current resistance around 1.3423, followed by the 1.3475 area after which 'big picture' resistance comes into play around 1.3525.

USDCAD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

AUDUSD Down to Fresh Five-Month-Lows

I had looked at bearish setups in AUDUSD last week in the effort of getting some long-USD exposure on the radar. The pair has since pushed down to fresh five-month-lows, and this can keep the door open for more. The primary challenge at the moment is chasing what may be an oversold move, so rather than selling and hoping, a pullback to resistance at prior support may be a more prudent manner of approach. For such a theme there are a couple of nearby areas of interest. The prior zone of support that ran from .6900-.6911 appears especially interesting as this showed a couple of different doses of support but, as yet, hasn't functioned as resistance. Beyond that, the .6955-.6960 area could be another potential point of resistance should sellers take a step back.

AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDJPY Holds Key Resistance Even as Risk Aversion Remains at Bay

Also on the short-side of the US Dollar is a potential setup in USDJPY. I had looked at this one last week with a focus on resistance potential around 108.70. And while that price helped to hold the highs, sellers weren't able to make much of a mark and price action has trickled-back into this zone. If risk aversion themes do come back, which is certainly a possibility considering next week's calendar – the short-side of USDJPY can remain of interest down to the 107.00 area. For next week, a hold below this 109.00 level keeps the door open for short-side strategies. Of note, a Bank of Japan rate decision is also on the docket for next week, so both sides of this pair's respective economies will be in the spotlight and this can keep USDJPY price action on the move.

USDJPY Eight-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-14 19:40:00

FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: UK Inflation, Canada Inflation, Fed Meeting, New Zealand GDP, BOJ Meeting

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 12:08 PM PDT

TOP 5 EVENTS TALKING POINTS:

At long last, the highly anticipated June Fed meeting is on deck. All other economic data releases will be playing second fiddle over the coming week.
Inflation reports from the UK and Canada will show that the oil price plunge since April has started to weigh down headline inflation again.
The Q1'19 New Zealand GDP report might not give the RBNZ more evidence to support its efforts to cut interest rates.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Consumer Price Index (MAY)

With oil prices falling more than 20% from their 2019 highs, measures of inflation are being pulled lower across the developed world – and the UK should not be immune from this emerging trend of disinflationary pressures. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the forthcoming May UK inflation report is due to show headline inflation in at 2% from 2.1% (y/y), while the monthly reading is due in a 0.3% from 0.6%. Core CPI is expected to have eased to 1.7% from 1.8% (y/y).

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Consumer Price Index (MAY)

The pullback in oil prices in recent weeks appears ready to put a cap on the rebound in Canada inflation – no different than what's being experienced across the rest of the developed economic world. Crude oil prices plunged by -15.9% in May, weighing significantly on the yearly performance: at their peak, crude oil prices were up by 46.7% in 2019; at the time of writing, they were only up by 16.2% in 2019. Accordingly, a Bloomberg News survey shows consensus forecasts pointing to headline May Canada inflation due in at 2%(y/y), unchanged from April's pace of price pressures. The monthly reading is due in at 0.1% from 0.4% (m/m), clearer evidence disinflation is starting to appear.

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 18:00 GMT | USD Federal Reserve Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference

With trade war concerns raging and global financial markets' volatility steadily pushing higher, the Federal Reserve's June meeting on Wednesday comes at a critical moment. The prospect of the US economy's record 10-year expansion being threatened has garnered the attention of policymakers, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying that the Fed would "act as appropriate" if needed in a speech at the start of June. Overall, interest rate odds have taken an aggressive dovish turn, pulling forward expectations of three 25-bps rate cuts into 2019. While the Fed is unlikely to act in June, it's very possible that they initiate the first rate cut as soon as the next meeting in July.

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 22:45 GMT | NZD Gross Domestic Product (1Q)

Monetary policy in New Zealand has taken on a more dovish tone in recent months, with the 25-bps rate cut coming at the May RBNZ meeting. Concerns over the fallout of the US-China trade war, involving two of New Zealand's three largest trading partners, coupled with softness in inflation readings provoked the RBNZ into efforts to mitigate any issues for the economy before they begin to gather pace. In turn, Q1'19 New Zealand GDP appears to have avoided any significant fallout, with a 2.4% annualized growth rate expected, slightly higher than the 2.3% observed in Q4'18.

06/20 THURSDAY | –:– GMT | JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision

What you will read next should not come as a surprise: the BOJ will leave rates on hold at its meeting this coming week. With inflationary pressures below the BOJ's target, growth underwhelming, and concerns proliferating about global trade, there's no reason why the BOJ would deviate away from its ultra-accommodative policy stance. Given that the disinflationary, low growth environment sees no end in sight, the BOJ can't really use its regularly scheduled policy meetings to effectuate meaningful changes in investor behavior; instead, the BOJ is more likely to surprise market participants with actions in between meetings.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-14 18:45:00

Gold Price Explodes to Fresh Yearly Highs

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 10:08 AM PDT

Gold Price Talking Points:

Gold Prices to Fresh Yearly Highs

It's been a brisk month of June already for Gold prices. After spending much of the prior three months in varying forms of consolidation, the past two weeks have seen a significant topside ramp develop as a number of macro themes have moved into the spotlight.

Last week, I had looked at support potential in Gold prices, taken from around the 1319.91 Fibonacci level. This is the 14.4% retracement of the same major move from which the 38.2% marker helped to set pre-breakout support around the 1275 handle. The 14.4% retracement came into play again early this week, and the bounce from that level has now extended up to fresh yearly highs, finding sellers in the 'danger zone' that was looked at on Tuesday.

Gold Price Eight-Hour Chart

Gold Price Breakout – Is Now the Time for Fresh Five-Year-Highs?

Given the excitement on Gold charts, and rightfully traders have started to look at the bigger picture. As discussed on Tuesday, Gold prices are nearing a long-term zone of resistance that lurks just above current price action, and this is a zone that's turned around multiple advances in the recent past. A similar theme of strength had shown in Gold prices from July to September of 2017; and another from December 2017 to January 2018. Each of those advances was decidedly one-sided, but both failed to push through this key zone on the chart.

The operable question right now is whether 'this time is different?' And to seasoned traders, that's often a phrase of folly. But it does highlight the inherent danger of chasing a well-developed move as a long-term zone of resistance has just come back into play.

Gold Price Weekly Chart

Gold Prices React to Shifting Rate Paradigm – But Will the Fed Deliver?

One of the key components of this current topside run in Gold prices has been a shifting backdrop around rate expectation in the US. As the Fed remained hawkish through much of last year, Gold prices tanked from April to August, finally finding a bit of support around the 1160 level. But as pressure began to show in risk markets throughout Q4, expectations for Fed tightening diminished, and bulls came back in to push the bid in Gold. That theme ran into the month of February when digestion began to show up; and price action put in a 38.2% retracement of that prior bullish move, bringing into play the support level two weeks ago at 1275.15.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Gold Price Strategy Moving Forward

At this point, pushing the bid on Gold appears to be aligned with anticipation of a very dovish twist at the Federal Reserve for next week's rate decision. Rates markets are anticipating three cuts by the end of the year, with the next move being a 25 basis point cut that's expected at the July meeting. So, the primary focus around this upcoming FOMC rate decision will be on the dot plot matrix, and just how dovish the Fed might go in response to this recent flicker of risk aversion.

The Fed may have their work cut out for them at Wednesday's rate decision. While economic data has taken a negative tone of late, inflation remains very near the bank's 2% goal and this morning's retail sales data was rather strong. And while this backdrop, particularly if focusing on the dual-mandate, may be ripe for keeping rates on hold, it does make for a more difficult case to justify a full-on rate cut regime.

This could mesh well with the current backdrop in Gold prices. The bullish move is stretched by a number of metrics, but that longer-term zone of resistance could soon be taken-out when the Fed does eventually deliver. This may be more probabilistic at their next rate decision, however, taking place in late-July. For next week, this places emphasis on support potential in Gold prices, and that same 1319.91 level could remain as interesting, with the 23.6% marker of that same major move, taken from around 1302 as another potential support point. That price remains as interesting as it helped to provide a very clear swing-high in mid-May and, as yet, hasn't been tested for higher-low support since the bullish breakout began two weeks ago.

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Forex Trading Resources

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-14 16:34:00

Net-Short Positions Increased by 20% from Last Week

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 06:26 AM PDT

NUMBER OF TRADERS NET-LONG HAS DECREASED BY 1.5% FROM LAST WEEK

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 69.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.29 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 03 when USDJPY traded near 111.664; price has moved 3.1% lower since then. The number of trader's net-long is 2.9% higher than yesterday and 1.5% lower from last week, while the number of trader's net-short is 3.0% lower than yesterday and 20.0% higher from last week.

To gain more insight in how we use sentiment to supplement a strategy, join us for one of our weekly webinars on how to "Identify Trends with Sentiment":

Tuesday 15:00 GMT

Wednesday 00:00 GMT

Thursday 21:00 GMT

(click on one of the above times to enroll)

USD/JPY SENTIMENT SUGGESTS A STRONGER BEARISH SIGNAL

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggesting USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

-Written by Warren Venketas, DailyFX Research

2019-06-14 13:18:00

Dollar, Euro, WTI Crude Oil, and Gold Price Chart Set-ups for Next Week

Posted: 14 Jun 2019 05:11 AM PDT

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been holding onto support, but could that change in the week ahead? If support is to break, then the Euro will need to get into gear here soon; there is some reason to believe that may be the case. Crude oil has a short-term pattern developing that could trigger next week. Gold is pressing hard against a major breakout zone, get above 1375 and things get very interesting.

Technical Highlights:

US Dollar Index (DXY) support remains big focus
Euro change in character suggest more upside?
WTI crude oil could be putting in a bearish pattern
Gold pressing hard on major resistance

See where our team of analysts see your favorite markets and currencies headed in the in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) support remains big focus

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to be a major focus given where it stands with strong support at its feet. It feels like a failure to hold support would be far more significant than if it continues to hold and rally, as the trend (as tepid as it has been) quickly comes under fire and market participants get caught holding the bag.

A reversal in trend would mean the Euro is breaking a rather significant pattern, as well, that suggests a major move. But for now, we must respect the trend-line/200-day combo, with DXY 96.46 as the big line-in-the-sand.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (building a wedge)

Euro change in character suggest more upside?

The Euro is trading at the upper bounds of a falling wedge, a potentially explosive pattern if fully triggered. While we need confirmation before running with an outright bullish bias, there is reason to believe it could come soon.

The swift bearish reversal on June 5 led to zero follow-through, and in fact was negated in less than two days' time. In recent months any time a bounce was met with a swift reversal in momentum, EURUSD followed through on the downside. This change in behavior may be suggesting a trend change is underway. Again, we need to see a bit more strength before this gets notion gets more backing, but could certainly be the case here soon.

EURUSD Weekly Chart (falling wedge to fire it higher soon?)

EURUSD Daily Chart (recent reversal was negated, could be change in behavior)

WTI crude oil could be putting in a bearish pattern

Yesterday, crude oil bounced from near the June 5 low, which was limited in upside momentum with the help of a multi-week downtrend line. The tepid bounce off support has a lower-high in the works, too, which increases the potential for a descending wedge to form. A break of the 50.54 level is viewed as a catalyst for kicking off more weakness towards the 48/46-area, where a pair of longer-term trend-lines/slopes align from the depths of 2016.

Crude oil 4-hr Chart (descending wedge in the works)

Gold pressing hard on major resistance

Gold is doing its best to break out of a wedge formation it has been building for several years. A breakout of this magnitude could be quite significant. Full clearance on the pattern is for a weekly close above 1375, sporting a measured move target up to the high 1600s. This could come as soon as next week if resistance isn't met with the same kind of opposition it has been for some time, now.

In the event we see a wicked reversal back lower, it could keep the ball in the bear's court for a while longer. Indeed, at a big spot with implications to match.

Find out where our analysts see Gold heading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Gold Forecast

Gold Weekly Chart (top of wedge, 1375+ needed for full breakout)

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-14 11:40:00