2018-01-23
Wave summary:
Despite another run close to the top at 136.31 we remain firm in our belief that this rally is corrective and a new decline below 135.00 soon will be seen, confirming our expectation for a decline close 131.11 and longer term a much deeper corrective decline towards 123.43 in wave (E) of the huge triangle consolidation, which has been unfolding since July 2008.
R3: 136.64
R2: 136.31
R1: 136.03
Pivot: 135.55
S1: 135.00
S2: 134.78
S3: 134.37
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 134.75 with stop placed at 136.75
AUD/USD continues to test major resistance, remain bearish
2018-01-23
The price continues to test major resistance at 0.8018 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bearish divergence) and we expect a drop from this level to push the price down to at least 0.7817 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
RSI (34) sees ascending support as more intermediate support and only a break of this level would trigger a very bearish move. We can also see bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.
Sell below 0.8018. Stop loss at 0.8116. Take profit at 0.7817.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 23, 2018
2018-01-23
Wave summary:
We have seen the expected spike lower to 1.6679 (the low has been seen at 1.6684). This fulfills the corrective target in wave ii and a break above minor resistance at 1.6772 will confirm that wave ii is complete and wave iii has taken over for a rally towards 1.7360 on the way higher to 1.7777.
As long as minor resistance at 1.6772 is able to cap the upside, we could still see a final spike to or just below 1.6679, but it's not necessary.
R3: 1.6850
R2: 1.6809
R1: 1.6772
Pivot: 1.6713
S1: 1.6684
S2: 1.6679
S3: 1.6662
Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 1.6695 and will place our stop at 1.6550.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Jan 23, 2018
2018-01-23
In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Outlook Report, Monetary Policy Statement data, and the US will release the Economic Data such as Richmond Manufacturing Index. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 111.49.
Resistance. 2: 111.27.
Resistance. 1: 111.05.
Support. 1: 110.79.
Support. 2: 110.57.
Support. 3: 110.35.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 23, 2018
2018-01-23
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Consumer Confidence, ZEW Economic Sentiment, and German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Richmond Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2327.
Strong Resistance:1.2320.
Original Resistance: 1.2308.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2296.
Target Inner Area: 1.2267.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2238.
Original Support: 1.2226.
Strong Support: 1.2214.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2207.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for January 23, 2018
2018-01-23
EUR/USD has been quite indecisive this week having started with a Gap yesterday and bearish pressure sustaining along the way. The indecision on this pair is speculated due to neutral results of Euro group meeting and German Buba Monthly report which failed to provide enough evidence to gain over USD yesterday. On the Ahead of the EUR Minimum Bid Rate report to be published on Thursday this week, EUR seemed to have contained itself before an impulsive momentum. Though the Minimum Bid Rate report is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% this month following the Bid Rate report ECB Press Conference is expected to inject a good amount of volatility in the market. Today EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 29.7 from the previous figure of 29.0, Consumer Confidence is expected to be unchanged at 1 and ECOFIN Meeting is also expected to neutral having a little or no impact on the EUR gains today. On the other hand, ahead of the Advance GDP report to be published on Friday, USD does not have any impactful economic event or report to provide strong momentum in the market. Today USD Richmond Manufacturing Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 19 from the previous figure of 20. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to lose more grounds but EUR also does not have any impactful economic report or events on its side to favor its gains. As a result, we might observe a good amount volatility and consolidation this week whereas a weekly close may lead to a definite trend outcome this week.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is still quite bearish as of the current price action momentum whereas USD is expected to push the price lower towards 1.2050-1.2100 support area from where we might see some bullish momentum to carry on with the trend. As the price remains below 1.2300 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
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