Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 23, 2019

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 23, 2019
2019-01-23


EUR/JPY has been consolidating below 125.00 area after an impulsive bounce off the 121.00 support area. EUR has been weighed down by the BREXIT uncertainty and worse-than-expected economic reports which lead to EUR's weakness against JPY.

EUR has been hurt by the recently published economic reports which did not support the impulsive bullish momentum further above 125.00 area. European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici recently stated that the risk of a no deal BREXIT increased in last few weeks and it was up to the British to tell the EU how they propose to break it. EUR is currently facing unclear market sentiment ahead of BREXIT. Yo make things worse, lackluster economic reports are to blame for EUR weakness. Both the EU and the UK are not interested in a no deal BREXIT, which could derail economic growth in the future. Moreover, the European Union may reject the Italian plan to reimburse retail savers, hit by retail bank rescues which might also hit a rock bottom for EUR in the coming days.

On the JPY side, today BOJ Policy Rate was published unchanged as expected at -0.10%. The Bank of Japan cuts its inflation forecasts today but maintains its massive stimulus program. Governor Kuroda warns of the growing risk for the domestic economy from trade protectionism and faltering global demand. Rising pressure from US-China Trade War is adding tensions for Japan and undermining years of efforts by policy makers for sustainable growth. Despite Japan's intention to use fiscal spending to stem an economic slowdown, there are still risks involved. However, Kuroda stated that Japan's economy is rising. The policymaker expects Japan's economy to grow till fiscal 2020 with proper sustainability.

Meanwhile, amid downbeat economic data from the eurozone and unclear market sentiment EUR is expected to be dominated by JPY in the coming days. Despite risks emerging in Japan, the optimism and target GDP growth projected by Kuroda till fiscal 2020 are going to attract the market sentiment, thus causing further bearish momentum in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been correcting itself below 125.00 area which is recently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance. The price is currently having bearish confluence and expected to push lower towards 123.50 and later towards 120.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 125.00-50 resistance area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 119.00, 120.00, 123.50

RESISTANCE: 125.00-50, 127.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE



Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 23, 2019
2019-01-23



Overview:

The EUR/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294.

The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1450.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 23, 2019
2019-01-23



Overview: The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

GBP/USD analysis for January 23, 2019
2019-01-23




As I expected the GBP/USD pair traded higher and met my first yesterday's target at the price of 1.3000. The momentum is still strong on the upside and GBP/USD is going towards the second objective target at the price of 1.3080. The upward Andrew Pitchfork channel is giving us well defined levels of support and resistance and we can expect potential test of the median line (middle line).

Trading recommendations for today: We are still long GBP/USD from 1.2900 but we are adding one long position at 1.3016 due to the breakout of the resistance. We are also rising SL on the first position to 1.3070 and on that way secure the profit of 70 pips.

Analysis of Gold for January 23, 2019
2019-01-23




Gold is expected to move higher towards $1,294.00 (resistance cluster) as long as the support at $1,276.00 is holding. Gold failed to test the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that selling power is waning. Only a break below support at $1,276.00 will change this bullish trading idea and stop us for our bullish view.

Trading recommendation: We are long Gold from $1,285.00 with a first target at $1,294.00 and protective stop at $1,276.00.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 23, 2019
2019-01-23




Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted Flag Channel (In red).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term uptrend (In blue) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

This renders the recent bullish breakout above 1.1420 and 1.1520 as a false breakout. Hence, any bullish pullback towards 1.1420 can be considered as a valid SELL entry for intraday traders.

The current bearish consolidation below the key level of 1.1400 encourages more bearish decline down to 1.1250 as Initial target provided that the minor uptrend line located around 1.1350 is broken towards the downside.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish breakout below 1.1350 (short-term uptrend in BLUE) as a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels should be located around 1.1310, 1.1270, and 1.1225. S/L should be located above 1.1420.

No comments:

Post a Comment