Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for February 13, 2019
2019-02-13
USD/CAD has been quite volatile between the price range of 1.3200 to 1.3350, from where it is currently moving lower with strong bearish momentum. USD failed to gain momentum over CAD despite the positive economic reports and hawkish FED statement recently that indicates indecision in the market.
Recently FED Chairman Powell has been quite optimistic in his recent speech as he spoke about the strong US economy and unemployment dropping to nearly a 50-year low. Analysts speculate on the likelihood of recession. However, Jerome Powell disagreed with it completely and denied the scenario of recession. Kansas City FED President Esther George recently stated that a pause in rate hikes is required for assessing the decision made earlier. Meanwhile, the domestic economy has been showing strong performance. Recently US JOLTS Job Opening report was published with an increase to 7.34M from the previous figure of 7.17M which was expected to decrease to 6.84M. Today US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.1% and Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. Moreover, US lawmakers managed to come to a deal on President Trump's demands for funding the protective wall along the US-Mexico border. The US dollar perked up amid the welcome news.
On the other hand, as a commodity currency the loonie gained momentum amid the oil's steady rally. The Canadian Labor Market showed significant growth to 66.8k from the previous value of 9.3k which was expected to decrease to 6.5k which empowered CAD to gain momentum despite the healthy US economy. The Bank of Canada is not currently expected to increase the rates soon. Unstable oil prices are likely to affect the overall CAD gains. Tomorrow Canada's Manufacturing Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -1.4% and NHPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.0%.
Meantime, the US economy remains on a sound footing, while Canada's economic growth is expected to slow down.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 1.3200 with a retest after, following impulsive bearish pressure. After the recent false break below 1.3200 area, the bulls are currently quite active at 1.3200 from where certain bullish pressure is expected which may lead the price towards 1.3350 and later towards 1.3500 area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.3200 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 1.30, 1.3200
RESISTANCE: 1.3350, 1.3500
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Analysis of Gold for February 13, 2019
2019-02-13
Gold did successful rejection of the key shot-term resistance at $1.314.00 (yellow rectangle). We found a potential end of the upward correction (abc) and the breakout of the support trendline in the background, which is a sign of the weakness. Support is now seen at $1.308.00. The trend is still bearish.
R1: $1.318.00
R2: $1.322.40
R3: $1.326.50
Pivot: $1.314.00
S1: $1.309.90
S2: $1.305.80
S3: $1.301.60
Trading recommendation: We sold Gold at $1.310.00 and we have placed our stop at $1.318.00.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 13, 2019
2019-02-13
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0003. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.0003, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9982, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 1.0003 and 1.0067. So, the support stands at 1.0003, while daily resistance is found at 1.0067. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0003. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0003 with the first target at the level of 1.0067; and continue towards 1.0103 and 1.0140. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0030 today, the market will decline further to 0.9908.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 13, 2019
2019-02-13
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.
GBP/USD analysis for February 13, 2019
2019-02-13
GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2882. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, we found many sings of potential strength on this currency pair. GBP/USD is now testing the lower parallel (support) of the median line at the price of 1.2880, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Besides, we found confirmed hidden bullish divergence on the MACD oscillator in the background and broken downward mini Pitchfork channel, which is another sign of strength. Short-term support is seen at 1.2870 and the short -term resistance at 1.2920.
Trading recommendation: We bought GBP at 1.2886 with protective stop at 1.2830. Our main target is set at 1.2995 but we expect testing of median line in the future.
