Forex News 24

EURUSD movement will depend on data on the US labor market
Don’t Make This Buying Mistake
Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 3. Bank of England has not given the markets food for thought
S&P 500, EURUSD, Oil from Tentative Breaks to Tentative Reversals
Trade Wars and Growth Replace Targeted Event Risk Like the FOMC
BITCOIN Analysis for May 3, 2019
EUR / USD Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement in May 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP
Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Price Outlook
Euro weakens amid rising dollar value
Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Price Outlook

EURUSD movement will depend on data on the US labor market

Posted: 05 May 2019 12:24 PM PDT

The US dollar continued to strengthen on Thursday against risky assets and especially rose in pair with the European currency. Good data on labor productivity and production orders helped the US dollar to regain its position by the end of the week.

According to the report by the US Department of Labor, due to the labor efficiency of American workers, non-agricultural labor productivity in the first quarter of this year increased by 3.6% compared with the previous quarter. Compared to the same period of the previous year, productivity increased by 2.4%.

However, there are some minor problems regarding the growth of unit labor costs. The report indicates that in the 1st quarter, expenses decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same period of the previous year, unit costs increased by 0.1%.

Orders for manufacturing goods in the US also rose in March and were much better than economists’ forecasts.

According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for manufactured goods rose by 1.9% to $508.19 billion. Economists had expected orders to grow in March by 1.5%. Excluding transportation, production orders rose by 0.8% and factory orders excluding defense increased from 1.7%.

Weekly data on the labor market did not cause a special market reaction. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from April 21 to April 27 was 230,000, while economists had expected the number of new claims to be 215,000. The data is similar to last week, indicating a stable state of the labor market. The average moving applications for four weeks rose to 212,500. The number of secondary applications for the week from April 14 to April 20 increased by 17,000 and amounted to 1,671,000.

Today, all attention will be focused on the US Department of Labor report on the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector, which could lead to a serious surge in volatility if the data seriously diverge from the expectations of economists. It is predicted that the number of people employed in April of this year will increase by 181,000 after rising by 196,000 in March. The overall unemployment rate should remain around 3.8%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the downward potential will be limited by the support level of 1.1150, the breakthrough of which will return the trading instrument to the lows of April 25, which will completely eliminate the upward correction in risky assets and return to the market large buyers of the US dollar that can easily push the support of 1.1110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-05-03 08:11:13

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Don’t Make This Buying Mistake

Posted: 05 May 2019 10:22 AM PDT

Over the last few Sundays, we've been featuring essays from our CEO, Brian Hunt, about the power of investing in great businesses that pay great dividends.

In today's essay from Brian, we're going to take this idea one step further. Specifically, after finding a great company that's deserving of your dollars, what's the right strategy for deciding when to put your money to work? After all, if you pay too high of a price, it can turn a great investment into a poor investment.

Brian walks us through some examples that illustrate the importance of buying at the right price. When you get this right, your investment results will almost take care of themselves.

Enjoy.

Jeff Remsburg

A Strategy for Buying Elite Businesses at Bargain Prices
The key is determining whether it's TRULY a bargain — or deserves to be sold

By Brian Hunt, InvestorPlace CEO

Even elite businesses with juicy dividends suffer share price selloffs from time to time.

Sometimes, these selloffs are caused by short-term, solvable problems within the individual companies.

Sometimes, these selloffs are caused because the overall stock market goes down in value.

These selloffs are almost always opportunities to buy these firms at bargain prices and start collecting steady dividend payments.

When you spend money on any big purchase, like a home or a car, you want to pay a good price. You want to get value for your dollar.

When you buy a car, you want to pay a good price. When you buy a house, you want to pay a good price. You don't want to overpay. You don't want to embarrass yourself by getting ripped off.

Yet … when people invest, the idea of paying a good price is often cast aside.

They get excited about a story they read in a magazine … or how much their brother-in-law is making in a stock, and they just buy it.

They don't pay any attention to the price they're paying … or the value they're getting for their investment dollar.

Warren Buffett often repeats a valuable quote from investment legend Ben Graham: "Price is what you pay, value is what you get."

I think that's a great way to put it.

Like many investment concepts, it's helpful to think of it in terms of real estate:

Let's say there's a great house in your neighborhood. It's an attractive house with solid, modern construction and new appliances. It could bring in $30,000 per year in rent. This is the "gross" rental income … or the income you have before subtracting expenses.

If you could buy this house for just $120,000, it would be a good deal.

Since $30,000 goes into $120,000 four times, you could get back your purchase price in gross rental income in just four years.

In this example, we'd say you're paying "four times gross rental income."

Now … let's say you pay $600,000 for that house.

Since $30,000 goes into $600,000 20 times, you would get back your purchase price in gross rental income in 20 years.

In this example, we'd say you're paying "20 times gross rental income."

Paying $600,000 is obviously not as good a deal as paying just $120,000.

Remember, in this example, we're talking about buying the same house.

We're talking about the same amount of rental income.

In one case, you're paying a good price. You're getting a good deal. You'll recoup your investment in gross rental income in just four years.

In the other case, you're paying a lot more. You're not getting a good deal. It will take you 20 years just to recoup your investment.

And it's all a factor of the price you pay.

It works the same way when investing in a business …

You want to buy at a good price that allows you to get a good return on your investment. You want to avoid buying at a bloated, expensive price.

This is a vital point.

No matter, how great a business is, it can turn out to be a terrible investment if you pay the wrong price.

If you're not clear on this point, please read through the home example again.

When it comes to buying elite businesses that raise their dividends every year, you can use the company's dividend yield to help you answer the important question: "Is this business trading for a good price or a bad price?"

Here's how it works …

When a stock's price goes down and the annual dividend remains the same, the dividend yield rises.

For example, let's say a stock is $50 per share and pays a $2 per share annual dividend. This represents a yield of 4% (since 2 is 4% of 50).

If the stock declines to $40 per share and the dividend payment remains $2 per share, the stock will yield 5% (since 2 is 5% of 40).

When a selloff causes an elite dividend-payer to trade near the high end of its historical dividend yield range, it's a bargain … and it's a good idea to buy shares.

Remember, these companies pay the world's most reliable dividends.

Their annual payouts only go one way — UP.

When an elite dividend-payer's share price suffers a decline of more than 15%, consider it "on sale" and buy it.

For example, in the late 2008/early 2009 stock market decline, shares of elite dividend payer Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) fell from $65 to $45 (a decline of 30%).

Procter & Gamble is one of the world's top consumer product businesses. Every year, it sells billions and billions of dollars' worth of basic, everyday products like Gillette razors, Pampers diapers, Charmin toilet paper, Crest toothpaste, Bounty paper towels, and Tide laundry detergent. It has raised its dividend every year for more than 60 years.

Investors who stepped in to buy this high-quality business after the market decline could have purchased shares at $50.

In the five years that followed, Procter & Gamble climbed to $80 per share. Its annual dividend grew to $2.57 per share.

This annual dividend represented a 5.1% yield on a purchase price of $50 per share … and that yield will continue rising for many years.

Owning one of the world's best businesses … earning a 5.1% yield on your shares … collecting a safe income stream that rises every year …

Buying the best at bargain prices is a beautiful thing.

If you have the interest, time and knowhow, you can track these businesses yourself. You can find all the information you need on many free financial websites. Or, you can simply pay an advisor or research firm to do it for you. I'd be remiss not to invite you to check out Neil George's picks. Neil can recommend plenty of elite dividend-payers, complete with buy-below prices.

Remember, you can make a bad investment in a great business if you pay a stupid price. View your investment purchases just like you would the purchase of a home, a car, or a computer.

Get good value for your investment dollar. And when an elite dividend-payer sells off for some reason, see it as an opportunity to buy quality at a bargain price.

Once you've got price on your side, you've got to put time on your side. Here's how.

Regards,

Brian

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 3. Bank of England has not given the markets food for thought

Posted: 05 May 2019 10:04 AM PDT

Wave counting analysis:

On May 2, the GBP / USD pair lost 20 basis points only. Thus, there are grounds for assuming the completion of the upward correctional wave. However, for the time being, the deviation of quotes from the reached maximums is too small for an unequivocal conclusion. Moreover, the current wave structure still suggests a decline in the pair and the construction of a downward wave. Today, the execution of this option can help the news background. But only if reports from America do not become a disappointment for the market. In general, the news background is not on the side of the pound sterling, and this is a good help for the further decline of the instrument.

Purchase goals:

1.3118 – 61.8% Fibonacci

1.3168 – 50.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2954 – 100.0% Fibonacci

1.2838 – 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still involves the construction of a downward trend. Now, I recommend selling the pair with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2839 and 1.2693, which corresponds to 127.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci. On the other hand, the signal from the MACD indicated that the pair is prepared to build a descending wave, but doubts still remain. Sales, therefore, recommend cautious. Today, news from America will help determine the market with a trading strategy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-05-03 08:18:50

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S&P 500, EURUSD, Oil from Tentative Breaks to Tentative Reversals

Posted: 05 May 2019 09:19 AM PDT

Australian Dollar (AUD) Outlook: AUDUSD Still Looking Into The Abyss?

AUDUSD made a fresh 2019 low this week and with little technical support on the charts another move even lower cannot be discounted. And while the multi-year low a couple of big figures away may not be under threat next week, the RBA rate decision on Tuesday May 7 is likely to prompt volatility.

Euro Weekly Price Outlook: EUR/USD Recovery Could be Short Lived

Euro turned just ahead of resistance this week with the price consolidation coiling into the April range. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart.

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Forecast: Support May Soon Lead to Rally

Crude oil took a spill last week, but with support at its feet look for it to try and bounce after a bit more weakness first.

US Dollar Price Forecast: Whose Brave Enough To Short DXY in May?

Despite late week volatility after a stellar NFP report, EUR/USD is nearing the lowest levels in two years on the back of US Dollar strength that could extend in the favorable month of May.

S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

Further gains in store for S&P 500 as index consolidates above 2900, DAX eyes topside resistance, FTSE 100 meets support.

Gold Price Threatens Major Break After Bears Thwarted At Lows

Gold prices remained on the move this week but, no new highs or lows came in. Might Gold prices be nearing a major move as digestion has built inside of digestion?

Pound Surge Has GBPUSD Range to Run, But Resistance Coming in Elsewhere

Pound's most aggressive rally in three months raises serious expectations that the currency will seriously struggle to meet in the week ahead. Watch for a stall and beware range reversals.

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.

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Trade Wars and Growth Replace Targeted Event Risk Like the FOMC

Posted: 05 May 2019 09:12 AM PDT

Following a week of better-than-expected Euro-area GDP, US employment statistics and the Fed's confusing stance; we find the markets lacking a sense of conviction on basic sentiment. While there are a host of key events ahead (UK GDP, China trade, RBA rate decision) will expected progress on trade wars help reestablish a clear course?

Check out our Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and central bank events.

Australian Forecast: Australian Dollar Could Face First RBA Rate Cut Since August 2016

The Australian Dollar heads into a new week battered by more feeble data and with more to play for at an RBA meeting than usual.

GBP Forecast: Sterling (GBP) Price Outlook: Brexit Anger May Dampen Sterling Strength

UK politics look set to re-assert themselves and Sterling is very likely to suffer.

Gold Forecast: Prices May Fall as Dollar Gains on Fed Policy Bets, Risk Trends

Gold prices may fall as a downbeat view on global growth coupled with fading hope for imminent Fed stimulus sours sentiment, boosting the US Dollar.

Euro Forecast: EURUSD at Risk to Bearish Euro Sentiment and EU-US Trade War Fears

The Euro struggled appreciating despite Italy climbing out of a technical recession and improving Eurozone data. Fears of an EU-US trade war and sentiment signals may sink EUR/USD.

Equity Forecast: Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Price Outlook

After a loaded week for US equities, event risk looks to subside as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones look for the path of least resistance.

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.

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BITCOIN Analysis for May 3, 2019

Posted: 05 May 2019 07:56 AM PDT

Bitcoin is currently heading towards $6000 resistance area. It is expected to reach the price area in a short time by following the upward momentum in the process.

Presently, prices are climbing up. So, analysts assume that BTC’s next wave hits itsTechnically, candlestick arrangements are supportive but fundamental developments are crucial. The US Presidential election ma

The dynamic levels including 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line has been quite successful holding the price higher. Support and a strong momentum towards $6000 is more likely to occur. After reaching $6000 area, certain correction and volatility may be observed. However, without strong bearish counter it is quite rush to conclude that all the bullish gains above $5000. As the price remains above $5000 area with a daily close, further upward pressure is expected in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 5000, 5250, 5500

RESISTANCE: 5850, 6000, 6500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-05-03 09:03:22

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EUR / USD Daily. Prospects for the development of the movement in May 2019. Analysis of APLs & ZUP

Posted: 05 May 2019 05:39 AM PDT

Minor (Daily)

Euro vs US dollar

Previous review from 04/26/2019 20:00 UTC + 3.

____________________

The European currency will be in the equilibrium zone (1.0930 <-> 1.1210 <-> 1.1490). direction of the range breakdown: -> resistance level 1.1310 (control line UTL forks for operating scale Minute); -> support level 1.1210 (Median Line Minor mid-line). The marking of movement options within the balance zone of a forked Minor is shown in the animated graphic.

____________________

The breakdown of the resistance level 1.1310 ( control line UTL of the operational scale fork of the Minute) -> development of the EUR / USD movement towards the targets -> upper limit of the ISL38.2 (1.1490) equilibrium zone of the fork of the operational scale of the Minor <-> finite Shiff Line Minor (1.1570) <-> local maximum 1.1815.

The Details are Shown in animated graphics .

____________________

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1210 (Median Line Minor median line) -> the development of the movement of the single European currency will be directed to the targets -> 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1110 <-> 1.1050 <-> 1.0990) operational scale Minute <-> lower bound ISL61.8 (1.0930) equilibrium zone of the fork of the operational scale Minor <-> initial line SSL Minute (1.0890) <-> final Shiff Line Minute (1.0780).

Details look at the animated graphics.

____________________

The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions in the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing orders “sell” or “buy”).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-05-03 09:15:39

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Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Price Outlook

Posted: 05 May 2019 03:32 AM PDT

Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and FTSE 100 Price Outlook:

With FAANG earnings in the rearview, earnings season will lose some of its sway
With a quiet week ahead, the DAX will await trade war news
The FTSE 100 looks to Friday's UK GDP release

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Neutral

Compared to last week, the week ahead should provide relative calm for US equities. The Dow Jones remains beneath record highs unlike its S&P 500 and Nasdaq counterparts. With a lack of domestic data, commentary from the central banks of Australia and New Zealand early in the week may offer some slight influence over the index as they offer their monetary policy outlooks and offer insight on the state of global growth.

View our Economic Calendar for live data releases and event times in the week ahead.

Outside of broader macroeconomic concerns, earnings season remains a factor. Although most of the big players have already reported, Wednesday will see Disney (DIS) offer their financial findings to the market. As roughly 3.5% of the Industrial Average, the stock will have some sway – but sentiment could play a larger role.

Dow Jones Top Performers

Disney has rallied nearly 20% over the last month, doubling the performance of second place JP Morgan. An unexpected miss out of Disney could spoil the stock's recent run and weigh on the Average. Follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for an earnings preview and implied volatility of Disney next week.

Looking for a technical perspective on equity? Check out theWeekly Equity Technical Forecast.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (February – May) (Chart 1)

How to Day Trade the Dow Jones

S&P 500 Price Outlook: Neutral

The S&P 500 finds itself in a similar fundamental standing, but with arguably more to lose. The Index was able to print record highs last week, before slipping on a Federal Reserve that was not as dovish as many market participants would have hoped. The Index will look to the same themes as the Dow Jones, but with price at loftier levels and more earnings to come, the group of 500 should experience higher volatility than its blue-chip counterpart.

S&P 500 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (February – May) (Chart 2)

How to Trade the S&P 500

DAX 30 Price Outlook: Bullish

Similarly, the German DAX 30 has little to go by from a domestic data perspective. Given the sparse data calendar, any trade war progress or breakdowns could carry greater weight than usual. President Trump has yet to decide on auto tariffs toward the bloc, which leaves a key uncertainty on the horizon that will eventually have to be resolved. Until then, it would seem imprudent to fight the recent price trend.

DAX 30 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (February – May) (Chart 3)

FTSE 100 Price Outlook: Neutral

Unlike the DAX, the FTSE 100 has an important data print to look forward to. First quarter GDP is due Friday and is expected at 1.4%. Last week the Bank of England raised some concern regarding their commentary on future rate moves, so GDP will play an important role in the monetary policy path of the economy.

FTSE 100 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (January – May) (Chart 4)

Finally, one theme may impact equities across the globe in the week ahead. After months of negotiations, the US and China are apparently approaching a resolution to their trade war. The deal was first scheduled at the end of May, but rumors have surfaced that Friday may be the date. With that in mind, trade wars will be an important theme to watch.

As the saying goes, a rising tide floats all boats, and a US-China trade deal would amount to such a tide. One caveat is the particulars of the deal. Some market participants have criticized the USMCA agreement for its lack of change from NAFTA. If few changes are inked in the US-China deal, jubilation could be limited.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Forecast: Australian Dollar Could Face First RBA Rate Cut Since August 2016

GBP Forecast: Sterling (GBP) Price Outlook: Brexit Anger May Dampen Sterling Strength

Gold Forecast: Prices May Fall as Dollar Gains on Fed Policy Bets, Risk Trends

Euro Forecast: EURUSD at Risk to Bearish Euro Sentiment and EU-US Trade War Fears

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2019-05-05 10:00:00

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Euro weakens amid rising dollar value

Posted: 05 May 2019 03:24 AM PDT

The continuing political uncertainty and the threat of an economic downturn in Europe led to a decline in the single European currency against the dollar. At the same time, even signs of a recovery in business activity in Europe did not help the euro to break out of the range of 1.11-1.10 dollars, in which it has been stuck since February. Surveys published by the industry showed a further decline in economic growth in April. In addition, the threat of higher rates for European cars in the United States and the upcoming European elections is also putting pressure on the currency. Against this background, the dollar looks attractive. The American continues to grow, aided by the economic data and the position of the Fed, voiced by Jerome Powell. The head of the regulator smoothed out fears caused by the recent slowdown in inflation. He said that he did not see any reason for lowering interest rates. The dollar will most likely continue to grow, especially if data on employment in the United States will be better than expected and the dollar is currently strong. Emerging markets are showing weak momentum, perhaps, you should think about selling.

In general, it was a quiet week for major currencies. The volatility indicator was at multi-year lows and liquidity was limited to holiday weekends in Japan and China. The British pound added 1.3 percent in anticipation of a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened on the news that next week regulators in both countries will lower interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia officials will meet on May 7 and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand the next day. Anyone can lower rates after reporting low inflation. Currently, markets are estimated by the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates this year at 49 percent, compared with more than 61 percent before Powell’s speech.

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