Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- Dollar, Dow, Gold a Cross Roads of G-20, Holiday Trade, Pent Up Anxiety
- Will Global Growth Fears Overwhelm OPEC?
- EURGBP Has Matched a Record Weekly Rally as Resistance Approaches, Now What?
- Forex Volatility Highlights EUR/USD, USD/CAD & AUD/JPY Next Week
- Gold Outlook Bullish on Imminent Fed Rate Cut
- S&P 500 Eyes First Weekly Decline Since May as G20 Summit Kicks Off
- Kiwi Rally Testing 2019 Open
- Crude Oil Price Caught at Resistance Ahead of Key OPEC Meeting
- EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY – Charts for Next Week
- USDCAD Tests 2019 Low, USD Pullbacks on Month-End Rebalancing
| Dollar, Dow, Gold a Cross Roads of G-20, Holiday Trade, Pent Up Anxiety Posted: 28 Jun 2019 09:47 PM PDT Hits: 10 G20 Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Short-Term Indecision Between Holiday Liquidity and G-20 AnticipationThere remains a conflicted backdrop to the global markets. On the one hand, there is undeniable restraint across the financial spectrum with a modest buoyancy in risk appetite. On the other, anxiety remains extremely high in the background with fundamental threats unrelenting. That has left us with some very difficult trading conditions. There are numerous tentative breaks and reversals that never muster the follow through that the preceding technical pattern seems to promise. Through the short term, the anxiety has only grown alongside the effectiveness of the fundamental restraint. Heading into the weekend, the obvious risk for markets was the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan. Following a first day that seemed to resolve none of the most pressing issues, all the attention turned to the second day where trade wars were expected to find their definitive course between US and Chinese leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jingping respectively. A commitment to walk back their more-than year-long economic standoff could bolster speculative appetite to more closely mirror the performance seen from the likes of the S&P 500 or Dow. That said, the levity in markets these past weeks likely reflect some degree of confidence already priced in and that will struggle to overcome the pull of the US holiday deflating market activity. Alternatively, if the world’s two largest economies fail to compromise, it will invariably lead to further escalation. With both sides vowing not to back down and willing to wait out their counterpart, the situation invites deeper mutual economic pain. While it is possible that both sides refuse an agreement without following through on the their stated next steps (Trump has suggested the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports could be hit with a 25 percent tariff and China has hinted at a number of options), the market will continue to tally the economic impact of previous measures. Fear has a tendency of turning contagious and only enflaming through thin liquidity conditions.
Longer-Term Troubles Pitting Complacency Against Systemic IssuesThe contrast of trade wars stirred by the G-20 summit and the known liquidity drain through Thursday’s US holiday creates a very explicit struggle to establish a clear market trend. While not as cleanly defined, we are still seeing the same general unease despite holding patterns in capital markets on higher time frames. Through the medium-term, this past month’s buoyancy offered up the best June performance from the S&P 500 in 64 years while the Dow’s June was an 81 year record. The first half of the year for the former is the best showing in two decades and we start the new week, month, quarter, half just off of record highs. That sits well with the assumptions attached to the so-called ‘summer lull’ which shows both a subdued volatility and a measured bullish bias in risk. Fundamentals, however, offer us plenty to worry over. Whether trade wars worsens or begins their long arduous road towards recovery, the outlook for growth has taken on water. How long an risk hold through that. Chart of S&P 500 and Rate of Change (Monthly)
Looking beyond the forthcoming month, we are dealing with more systemic issues. My principal concern is the extreme highs for US indices – and more restrained excesses of other risk assets – against a backdrop of a very reserved fundamental evaluation. We have passed through various phases of economic trouble, central bank normalization, debt expansion and various ‘external’ risks; and yet, the markets have held fast. This does not strike me as an indication of true confidence but rather an implacable sense of complacency. That intangible optimism cannot hold forever and is exceptionally prone to recognition of liquidity accelerating develeraging. What ultimately tips the scales will only be known when we look back after the fall out. My primary concern is keeping tabs on the circumstances – such as the gap between cost of entry and value to gauge how fast and far the markets may fall.
Key Event Risk Will Struggle to Land More than VolatilityWith systemic pools swirling, it will be difficult for mere scheduled event risk to rise to the occasion of full-scale market catalyst. That is particularly true for the US catalysts for local capital markets and perhaps even the Dollar. The June NFPs and related employment statistics are due Friday, but that is the day between the July 4th holiday and regular Saturday liquidity drain. In other words, this figure will struggle mightily to rouse the Dollar or Dow in a serious way. More consequential and timely are the ISM’s manufacturing and services activity reports. This is a good overview of US growth, yet here too, liquidity overrides. If anything the G20 may prove the biggest market mover – with the understanding that improved relationships could ease the need for the Fed to cut aggressively which could inadvertently help the Greenback. Chart of DXY Dollar Index and Implied Fed Funds Yield Through December (Daily)
Another key event risk on the docket ahead is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision. The central bank has been steadfast in its accommodative stance and its rate is already at a record high. They may lower that threshold further at the forthcoming meeting. According to swaps, the market assumes a 75 percent chance that the central bank cuts its benchmark 25 basis points. This is important on a speculative basis, but this simply won’t override any committed winds emanating from the trade relationships of the world’s two largest economies – which happen to be two of the larger counterparts for Australia.
While not country specific, there is plenty other thematic concern to keep tabs on in the week forward. On monetary policy, the trade wars will present a key prompt for the Fed. Through economic growth, there are plenty of monthly PMIs and sentiment surveys on tap, but my greatest interest rests with the Bank for International Settlements’ annual economic update. Gold and Bitcoin Can See Their Unique Reserve Appeal LeveragedAs we continue to gauge the impact of uncertainty as we move forward, it is important to match resources to problems. For the short-term and punctuated risks of this weekend – and weekends moving forward – it is necessary to find a haven that has significant liquidity over the standard capital market closures. While not a particularly reliable building block of the financial system (yet), cryptocurrency like Bitcoin can offer an outlet which may encourage a weekend hedge to catch. Chart of Bitcoin and Rate of Change (Daily)
If we are looking for an offset for systemic trouble that undermines the traditional havens and passive yield reach, gold is that outlet. The commodity has at times played the role of inflation hedge, traditional anti-risk asset an Dollar offset. Yet, the real value in this market – again whether intended trade target or simple measure of conditions – is the unique anti-currency properties it represents. The fact that it has risen alongside traditional risk assets like the Dow at a record high should raise mental alarms. Something is brewing in the foundation of the financial system, and the precious metal may represent one of the very few assets that can genuinely provide harbor. We discuss all of this andmore in this weekend’s Trading Video. <gold> If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-06-29 04:29:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Will Global Growth Fears Overwhelm OPEC? Posted: 28 Jun 2019 07:21 PM PDT Hits: 8 WILL SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH & TRADE WARS DRAG CRUDE OIL PRICES?Since Q2, oil prices have fallen a little over seven percent, considerably less than the 30-plus percent climb they experienced at the beginning of the year. Rising concerns about the pace of global economic growth is pressuring WTI as inventories bulge while many central banks are halting – and in some cases entirely reversing – monetary policy normalization and their rate hike cycles hoping to shore up weakening fundamentals. Decelerating GDP growth out of powerhouse economies like China, the EU and US may continue to weigh on oil demand and prices. In Europe, ECB policymakers have recently concluded a symposium in Sintra, Portugal where central bank President Mario Draghi alluded to possible future rates cuts and the re-introduction of QE. Slowing economic growth and inflationary pressures in Europe have been lagging while expectations for price growth remain unfavorable. Demand for oil which mirrors slowing GDP growth out of these economies has created a supply imbalance and looks to keep crude oil prices under pressure. Oil price weakness threatens to be exacerbated by US Department of Energy (DOE) reports detailing that total crude production is increasing along with inventories. Additionally, the number of oil rigs in use has fallen and demonstrates that production efficiency is increasing. If US crude oil producers decide to open up the spigot and increase operational capacity, crude oil prices may plummet further. OIL PRICE CHART VOLATILITY THREATENS TO DRAG CRUDE LOWERWith crude being strong-armed by both bullish and bearish headwinds, oil price volatility (measured by Cboe's OVX Crude Oil Volatility Index, shown inverted) risks rising which possibly suggest weakness in WTI ahead due to the generally strong negative relationship between the two assets. The daily chart also reveals that an impending death cross of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs threatens to keep crude oil prices subdued. If market sentiment sours at technical resistance near the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level, confluence around $54.00 per barrel and the 50.0 percent retracement of crude's year-to-date trading range has potential to keep oil prices bid. Moreover, forthcoming weakness in crude is perhaps hinted at by fading momentum shown by the downtrend in oil's 14-day relative strength index (RSI). Crude oil might sink toward support at the $52.00 level if the longer-term bullish uptrend from the December 2018 low fails to bolster prices. Conversely, upside could target $62.00 and the 78.6 percent Fib before eyeing the $66.00 per barrel price level again. OIL TRADING RESOURCES — Written by Dimitri Zabelin and Rich Dvorak, Junior Analysts for DailyFX.com Connect with @ZabelinDimitri and @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| EURGBP Has Matched a Record Weekly Rally as Resistance Approaches, Now What? Posted: 28 Jun 2019 05:15 PM PDT Hits: 10 EURGP Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in EURGBP, USDJPY and Gold along with other key markets including top FX pairs, indices, gold, oil and crypto using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. It is difficult to get away from the overwhelming influence of various systemic threats. Trade wars, reversals monetary policy from key central banks and growing fear over the health of economic activity seem almost inescapable. However, there are certain areas of the market that can reduce the exposure without completely sacrificing potential of their own. One such option on my radar is EURGBP. While this key European exchange rate does not fully divest itself from the most significant of fundamental themes, it significantly curbs the external influences. The trade war fallout from the US-China confrontation doesn’t highlight a benefactor nor victim between the two individual currencies. Growth concerns and monetary policy intention are certainly targeted matters, but they have not thus far followed the expected lines given the development on both sides of the coin. The disconnected nature of the exchange rate does not indicate it is impervious to all fundamental issues. It is instead the result of a very particular focus: Brexit. The rise and fall in negotiations between these two economies in the process of their divorce has generated significant volatility and traction over the past three years since the referendum was signed. It will likely stir significant moves into the future. However, at the moment, discussions have paused as the UK’s Conservative Party looks to determine its next leader and in turn the Prime Minister. When this is sorted and the new PM’s platform – really their appetite to consider no-deal – is clear, there is likely to be significant movement. Yet, that is not expected to be cleared up for three weeks. If fundamentals are restrictive but complicated, we should then consider the technical picture. In the big picture, EURGBP is still holding to a relatively controlled range since the Brexit referendum aftermath – between 0.8300 and 0.9300. We are still shy of that ultimate range high, but we have also extended an incredible eight consecutive week rally. That matches the three other instances of rallies that have lasted the same length and we’ve never had a consistent advance longer.
On the lower time frame, the climb these past few months looks even more remarkable. While not always running at an extreme tempo, its consistency is remarkable. We are coming to a confluence of resistance between a large Fibonacci retracement and a still-unconfirmed trendline resistance in the 30 pips below 0.9000. I don’t put much emphasis on the weight of this ceiling, but the general restraint of the market with a Brexit restraint can work in its favor. Look for technical cues on a turn, but always monitor the stability of Brexit and general restraint behind the pair.
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-06-28 23:52:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Forex Volatility Highlights EUR/USD, USD/CAD & AUD/JPY Next Week Posted: 28 Jun 2019 04:02 PM PDT Hits: 10 EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/JPY – FOREX VOLATILITYEarlier this week we highlighted that forex volatility risked rising owing to uncertainty surrounding this weekend's long-awaited G20 Summit meeting in Osaka, Japan. With the headline meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi still looming and financial markets anxiously awaiting its result, in addition to a barrage of global economic data readings, the possibility of currency volatility climbing higher remains – particularly in spot EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/JPY. FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – USD, EUR, CAD, AUD, JPYCheck out the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming event risk and economic data releases impacting major markets. Aside from G20 Summit headlines threatening to move markets as news crosses the wires, several high-impact economic indicators are scheduled for release throughout next week. Complementing any development from the Trump-Xi trade meeting, appetite for risk looks to also be set by China's Manufacturing PMI due for release Sunday at 1:00 GMT. The gauge could weigh heavily on the sentiment-geared AUD/JPY which looks to gyrate further in anticipation of and reaction to Tuesday's July RBA meeting with Australia's central bank slated to provide its latest monetary policy update. AUD/JPY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 28, 2018 TO JUNE 28, 2019)
Spot AUD/JPY is expected to range between 74.362-76.630 with a 68 percent statistical probability over the next seven days judging by the currency pair's 1-week implied volatility reading of 10.85 percent. Although, the 50.0 percent retracement and 61.8 percent Fibonacci levels are eyed as near-side technical resistance and support respectively. While spot AUD/JPY appears to have printed a breakout above bearish downtrend resistance, the currency pair looks like it may lose upward momentum as the cross rate approaches the 76.000 handle. A relatively hawkish message conveyed by the RBA next week could easily confirm upside bias that has developed recently and send spot AUD/JPY toward the upper-bound of its 1-standard deviation trading range. This scenario is less-than-likely according to overnight swaps pricing, however, which currently see a 73.9 percent chance that the RBA cuts interest rates again. EUR/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 21, 2018 TO JUNE 28, 2019)
The Euro and US Dollar also look ripe for volatility next week with an update on Germany's labor market on early Tuesday at 7:55 GMT and the release of the Institute of Supply Management's US Manufacturing PMI shortly after at 14:00 GMT. According to the 1-week implied volatility reading of 6.28 percent, spot EUR/USD is estimated to fluctuate between 1.1280-1.1478 next week. Technical resistance posed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the currency pair's year-to-date trading range near the 1.14 handle, which has previously served as a major confluence level, could keep upside in spot EUR/USD at bay. EUR/USD price action could be stirred further later in the week as traders react to the closely-monitored US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data due for release Friday at 12:30 GMT. Another surprise to the downside following last month's NFP report will likely echo bullish conviction that appears to have developed since the start of the month. However, an upbeat US jobs report threatens to send EUR/USD swooning with potential to test support at the 1.1300 price level. That being said, spot EUR/USD performance over the short-term will likely be driven largely by the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to make a move on rates. According to overnight swaps, rate traders are currently pricing a 25-basis point reduction in the central bank's policy interest rate as a near-certainty with an additional 24.0 percent probability of a 50-basis point reduction in Fed's benchmark policy rate. Consequently, upbeat US economic data risks reducing the market's expectation that the Fed will cut rates at its next FOMC meeting and bolstering the greenback in turn. USD/CAD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (SEPTEMBER 05, 2018 TO JUNE 28, 2019)
With spot USD/CAD testing year-to-date lows, price action could quickly accelerate. Forex traders might expect spot USD/CAD to swing between 1.2970-1.3206 next week according to the currency pair's 1-week implied volatility of 6.53 percent, which is the highest reading since March 5. Along with the aforementioned US economic data and G20 Summit impact on the greenback, the loonie will look to the Canadian Manufacturing PMI Tuesday at 13:30 GMT and update on Canada's labor market Friday at 12:30 GMT. Also, in consideration of the generally strong relationship between oil prices and the Canadian Dollar, crude performance has potential to weigh on CAD next week. As such, USD/CAD bulls will likely attempt to cling on to support near the 1.3100 price level and 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement before confirming fresh lows for 2019. If this area of consolidation fails to hold, bears will likely target the 1.3000 handle which aligns closely with the 1-standard deviation lower bound of the option implied trading range and 76.4 percent Fib. Conversely, the door to 1.3200 could be opened up if bulls can reclaim the 1.3100 area – a move that likely requires fundamental conviction possibly driven by a resurging US Dollar in response to better-than-expected US data and lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. — Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Gold Outlook Bullish on Imminent Fed Rate Cut Posted: 28 Jun 2019 03:11 PM PDT Hits: 8 Gold took out the 2014 high ($1392) after the Federal Reserve altered the forward guidance for monetary policy, and the price for bullion may continue to benefit from the current environment as the central bank appears to be on track to switch gears over the coming months. July Fed Meeting Interest Rate Probabilities In fact, Fed Fund futures now highlight 100% probability for at least a 25bp rate cut at the next rate decision on July 31. The central bank may show a greater willingness to establish a rate easing cycle as the dot-plot shows the benchmark interest rate narrowing to 1.75% to 2.00% by the end of 2019. To read the full Gold Price Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page Gold Price Technical Analysis: Look to Fade Weakness into Q3Gold prices are testing big resistance into the final week of June trade and while the broader focus is higher in XAU/USD, look for a larger pullback early next quarter to offer more favorable entries while above 1319. Ultimately, we're targeting fresh yearly highs above 1400 in the second quarter before a larger correction. To read the full Gold Price Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page Gold Price Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by Michael Boutros To read the full Gold Price Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page 2019-06-28 22:00:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| S&P 500 Eyes First Weekly Decline Since May as G20 Summit Kicks Off Posted: 28 Jun 2019 11:56 AM PDT Hits: 11 G20 SUMMIT DAY 1 – TALKING POINTS
The Annual G20 Summit kicked off this Friday in Osaka, Japan as leaders are set to discuss issues impacting the global economy such as trade, investment, and innovation. Other themes expected to be discussed heavily include tensions in the Straight of Hormuz stemming from the Gulf of Oman oil tanker attacks earlier this month with Iran being suspected of the attacks by the US. Market participants have been awaiting this week's summit as they hope to gain insight into trade progress between the US and China with President Trump and Xi slated to meet Saturday morning which is perhaps the most anticipated G20 Summit event. Markets are turning slightly more optimistic to end the week with the first day of events wrapped up in Japan. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is up 49-basis points through mid-day trading, although the Index is on track to post its first weekly loss this month. Gold traders are also eyeing the G20 Summit, XAUUSD made a healthy move up overnight reaching a high of $1424.56, before pulling back slightly with the commodity currently trading around $1411.94 but still positive on the day so far. GOLD PRICE CHART WITH S&P 500 INDEX OVERLAY: 5 MINUTE TIME FRAME (JUNE 28, 2019 INTRADAY)Notable events during the first day included meetings between various key leaders and a lunch conference with all heads of state being present. During the lunch conference which was focused on the digital economy, Japan's Prime Minister Abe mentioned that the world economy faces three key issues of globalization, aging, and digitalization. World Trade Organization reforms were also brought up as a continued theme from last year's summit in Buenos Aires with many leaders believing that the WTO is too slow to adapt to the increasingly digital economy. President Trump said that the United States is eager to work with like-minded partners on the digital economy and highlighted that security to 5G networks will be essential to prosperity and safety between partners. Trump also said the United States opposes data localization and polices which are used to restrict digital trade flows and violate IP protections. No one country was mentioned in specific, but it is largely assumed Trump was prefacing issues for tomorrows meeting with President Xi as the two world leaders wrestle over China's state telecom giant Huawei which has been severely impacted by recent US trade policies. –Written by Thomas Westwater, Intern Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Thomas on Twitter @FxWestwater DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Posted: 28 Jun 2019 09:29 AM PDT Hits: 12 The New Zealand Dollar is the top performer against the US Dollar this week with NZD/USD rallying nearly 2% ahead of the close on Friday. The advance takes price into a resistance range we've been tracking for days now and the focus is on the monthly close for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD charts heading into July. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Kiwi setup and more. New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide Kiwi Price Chart – NZD/USD DailyTechnical Outlook: In my latest New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the Kiwi, "advance now targeting the resistance at 6705/12 – a region defined by the 2019 open and the 50% retracement of the yearly range.The focus is on a reaction off this zone on the back of a seven-day advance in Kiwi with the immediate long-bias at risk into the yearly open." NZD/USD is poised to mark a ninth consecutive daily advance if price closes at these levels with the rally now probing the 6705/12 resistance zone. Watch the close of the week / month / quarter – a breach would keep the focus on the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 6766. Interim daily support rests at 6662 with broader bullish invalidation down at the highlighted trendline confluence around the 66-handle. Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading Kiwi Price Chart – NZD/USD 120min
Notes: A closer look at Kiwi price action shows NZD/USD trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation extending off the 6/19 low. IF price fails to close above the yearly open, look for a break of this channel / 6657/62 to suggest a near-term correction is underway. Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide Bottom line: The Kiwi breakout is probing a key resistance zone into the close of Q2 and leaves the immediate long-bias at risk heading into the July open if price fails to close above 6705/12. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for topside exhaustion here with a break below 6657 to offer a larger pullback. Ultimately , we'll favor fading weakness while above 6600 on a larger pullback targeting a topside breach towards 6766. Review my latest Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term view of the NZD/USD technical trade levels. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy Kiwi Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart
See how shifts in NZD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment! — Relevant New Zealand / US Data Releases
Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide! Active Trade Setups– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Crude Oil Price Caught at Resistance Ahead of Key OPEC Meeting Posted: 28 Jun 2019 08:51 AM PDT Hits: 12 Crude Oil Price Talking Points:Crude Oil Price Caught at Resistance Ahead of OPECThe final trading day of Q2 is winding down and along with Monday's Q3 open will be a key OPEC meeting set to conclude early next week. As discussed by our own Justin McQueen, it looks as though production cuts are set to be extended. And this, combined with the heightened risk in the geopolitical backdrop after the US drone was shot down by Iran has helped crude oil prices to firm after what had become a strong gust of selling took prices down to fresh five-month-lows. Oil Price Chart – WeeklyChart prepared by James Stanley As looked at on Wednesday, a strong area of resistance has come into play around the $60 handle. This area is confluent as there are a few different Fibonacci levels in this region to go along with a trend-line projection as taken from the April and May swing-highs. Despite this seemingly bullish backdrop for Oil prices, in which both supply constraint and geopolitical tensions are in the headlines, this key zone of resistance has continued to hold the highs throughout this week. Oil Price Chart – Daily
Chart prepared by James Stanley Crude Oil Price Strategy Moving ForwardGiven the continued hold at resistance, the short-side of crude oil can remain as attractive, looking for a hold of this resistance and a revisit down to a prior support zone; such as the area around 57.50 or perhaps around the 55-level. If sellers can take that zone out in quick-order, focus could then shift towards the 51.50 area of prior support that was looked at for target potential earlier this month. Crude Oil Price Four-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley Crude Oil Price – Bullish ScenariosGiven the drivers that will be in the headlines combined with the overall dynamics of the risk trade of recent, and traders would likely want to at least entertain the possibility of a bullish outcome around next week's OPEC meeting. Just above current price action is another confluent zone of interest, and this exists around the 62.80 level on the chart. The price of 62.89 is the 14.4% retracement of the December-April bullish move, while 62.84 is the 61.8% retracement of the long-term major move spanning from the 1999 low up to the 2008 high. Traders can look for a re-test of this level to signal a bullish flip in the near-term trend, and that can re-open the door for higher-low support potential around the current zone of resistance. Oil Price Chart – Daily
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY – Charts for Next Week Posted: 28 Jun 2019 07:01 AM PDT Hits: 12 The Dollar is positioned for more selling in the week ahead as big-picture tailwinds are favoring the downside. The Euro is consolidating nicely so far after breaking out of a large falling wedge pattern. Cable is doing its best to bottom on a long-term trend-line, clean pattern could soon come into view. GBPJPY is working on building a bearish continuation pattern. Technical Highlights:
See where our team of analysts see your favorite markets and currencies headed in the in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts. EURUSD price action encouraging after wedge-breakThe Euro recently closed the week outside of a falling wedge formation that has been under construction since August, and on that the path of least resistance is tilted higher. Furthermore, recent price action has changed from months past, in that instead of melting back lower following a strong rally, we are seeing EURUSD consolidate gains. This change in behavior could be a key sign that buyers have gained control. Solid support clocks in right around 11345 (price/200-day MA). EURUSD Daily Chart (consolidating)EURUSD Weekly Chart (broke falling wedge)
GBPUSD in process of carving out a bottoming patternCable's pop off the October 2016 trend-line is thus far holding and with the recent decline it is in the process of carving out an inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern. It still needs to find the right shoulder low, but with the head falling at long-term support, if it does fully form the pattern has a good chance of leading to a nice rally towards 12900 to begin with, likely even higher with the Dollar looking vulnerable. GBPUSD Daily Chart (possible inverse H&S pattern)
GBPJPY could form another bearish continuation patternGBPJPY had a nice bear-flag unfold during the middle of the month, which led to the recent low. The recent choppy price action could lead to another continuation pattern. It still needs time, but another bear-flag is in the works. The lower parallel needs to be broken for it to be valid, so keep that in mind should it fail to do so and rally from here. Patterns are not validated unless they have certain events unfold. GBPJPY 4-hr Chart (Bear-flag forming)
Resources for Forex & CFD TradersWhether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| USDCAD Tests 2019 Low, USD Pullbacks on Month-End Rebalancing Posted: 28 Jun 2019 06:23 AM PDT Hits: 7 MARKET DEVELOPMENT – USDCAD Tests 2019 Low, USD Pullbacks on Month-End Rebalancing DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts . USD: Yet again ranges are relatively tight ahead of the G20 summit. The USD had come under initial pressure in the European morning session as rebalancing flows weighed. G10 currencies are generally firmer against the greenback, which has managed to hold the 96.00 handle thus far. CAD: A mixed GDP report saw USDCAD bounce off yearly support at 1.3068. Tightening yield differentials and rising oil prices favour further CAD gains against the greenback. However, the BoC survey outlook could cap further upside in the near term, with the survey most likely to have been covered from early May to early June, which had been when US-China trade tensions had escalated. EUR: Eurozone inflation had been in-line with expectations, while the core rate had jumped to 1.1%, however, this remains far from the ECB's mandate and as such, saw a limited reaction in the Euro and short-end rates. Consequently, there is little to suggest that the ECB will not provide further stimulus from Q4. How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading WHAT'S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Analyst Articles – Forex News 24. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment