Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Stock Markets Aim Higher Balancing Trade Wars and Monetary Policy
British Pound Q3 Forecast: Sterling Fundamentals
Yen Supported by Two Huge Uncertainties; USDJPY Downtrend May Extend
Dollar Feeling Weight of Fed, GDP and Trade Wars

Stock Markets Aim Higher Balancing Trade Wars and Monetary Policy

Posted: 07 Jul 2019 01:34 AM PDT

The second quarter saw global equity markets negotiate a flurry of conflicting fundamental themes with trade wars and monetary policy at the forefront. Although the ongoing US-China trade war weighed on global growth and sentiment, a remarkable shift from the Federal Reserve allowed most of the major indices to post a narrow gain for the quarter.

Chart prepared by Peter Hanks

Technical Analysis: Trend is Up, but Big-picture Price Swings Highlight Growing Uncertainty

The first half of the year is in the books and it was a positive segment, however; that doesn't mean longer-term the stock market is in great shape. The last few months of strength went on to create a higher-high from September after posting a big lower-low in December (relative to early 2018).

The chart below highlights these higher-highs and lower-lows, a sequence called a Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST). These patterns indicate growing uncertainty as price swings increase. Whether or not the pattern is about to turn bearish or not will take some time given the path of least resistance is still clearly higher in the short to intermediate-term.

Chart prepared by Paul Robinson

To read the full Equity Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

2019-07-07 08:00:00

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British Pound Q3 Forecast: Sterling Fundamentals

Posted: 06 Jul 2019 07:09 PM PDT

Sterling (GBP) is likely to become more volatile as the clock ticks down to the latest Brexit deadline – October 31st – with both sides becoming increasingly weary and frustrated at the continued 'cankicking' exercise. Against this backdrop, Sterling is likely to become more volatile, a boon for traders who have had to sit back and watch most Sterling pairs trade in relatively restricted ranges over the past three months.

Chart prepared by Nick Cawley

Sterling Q3 Technical Analysis: GBPUSD: Holding Flash Crash Trendline Support

Losses persisted for GBPUSD after failing to consolidate above the 1.3000 handle. Although, at the back end of Q2, the pair had managed to find stability above 1.2500, which also coincided with the rising trendline stemming from the October 2016 flash crash. While the pair may have found a floor at 1.2500 in the near-term, momentum indicators on the longer-term timeframes (weekly & monthly) remain tilted towards a bearish bias, thus a retest of 1.2500 cannot be ruled out, particularly if a closing break below the key trendline was made, which would expose the 1.2426 January low.

Chart prepared by Justin McQueen

To read the full British Pound Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

2019-07-07 02:00:00

Yen Supported by Two Huge Uncertainties; USDJPY Downtrend May Extend

Posted: 06 Jul 2019 01:06 PM PDT

Havens Still Required

The Japanese Yen has headed into a new calendar quarter on a high note, with its customary haven role underscoring demand which has brought USD/JPY down to its 2019 lows.

The currency has been supported by a range of economic uncertainties, of which two loom the largest. The first is the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China. There has been some cooling of rhetoric on this subject from both sides as May has slipped into June. A durable settlement clearly remains elusive, but any headlines suggesting that such an end is being actively and amicably sought could well see risk appetite revive, probably to the detriment of the Yen.

To read the full Japanese Yen Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

Technical Analysis: USDJPY Downtrend May Extend into Third Quarter

In the second quarter USDJPY technical forecast, I outlined a couple of brewing bullish and bearish candlestick formations that might have defined the outlook for months to come. At the time, price action hinted that the more likely scenario would be a resumption of the dominant downtrend from 2015. Heading into the third quarter of 2019, that is looking to be the more likely outcome.

To read the full Japanese Yen Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

USD/JPY Monthly Chart

2019-07-06 20:00:00

Dollar Feeling Weight of Fed, GDP and Trade Wars

Posted: 06 Jul 2019 07:25 AM PDT

The US Dollar was heading into the second half of 2019 in an uncomfortable state of uncertainty. While there have been a few abrupt declines registered by the benchmark currency through the year, each bout of fear seemed to burn itself out before unease became contagious panic. Yet, after months of congestion holding back increasingly frequent flashes of volatility, it seems the technical boundaries are starting to come under existential strain. Meanwhile, the fundamental seas are growing progressively more tumultuous.

To read the full US Dollar Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

Graph of relative central bank policy standings. Created by John Kicklighter

US Dollar Bullish Backdrop Flips into Bearish Formation for 2H, 2019

Coming into last quarter, the US Dollar had continued a bullish theme that started more than a year prior. The lack of follow-through at the Q2 highs produced another upward-sloping trendline atop price action, and when combined with the support trendline from the previous ascending triangle, this makes for a rising wedge pattern. Unlike the triangle, a rising wedge will often be approached with the aim of a bearish reversal as the lack of enthusiasm near resistance may eventually lead in to a test through support. After all, if bulls are only looking to get long when the market is 'on sale,' what happens when the bottom falls out?

To read the full US Dollar Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

US Dollar Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read the full US Dollar Forecast, download the free guide from the DailyFX Trading Guides page

2019-07-06 14:00:00