Forex analysis review |
- GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!
- Bounce on USD/CAD
- USD/CHF to drop from 1st resistance, potential drop!
- EUR/USD. The trade war between the United States and China may end in armed conflict
- GBP/USD. What awaits the UK and the pound if Brexit is implemented?
| GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop! Posted: 24 Nov 2019 07:22 PM PST Price is approaching our first resistance a 1.28722 where we are expecting a drop to our first support level at 1.27697. Entry: 1.28722 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance Take Profit : 1.27697 Why it's good : horizontal swing low support
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| Posted: 24 Nov 2019 07:20 PM PST USDCAD to bounce above support at 1.32680 Entry: 1.32680 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Take Profit : 1.33550 Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, 100% Fibonacci Extension
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| USD/CHF to drop from 1st resistance, potential drop! Posted: 24 Nov 2019 07:19 PM PST Entry: 0.9983 Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance 78.6% Fibonacci extension 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Take Profit : 0.9875 Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension Horizontal swing low support
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| EUR/USD. The trade war between the United States and China may end in armed conflict Posted: 24 Nov 2019 02:49 PM PST As the trade conflict between the United States and China continues, during which the parties regularly declare "progress in the negotiations,'' more and more stumbling blocks arise in the negotiations. Recall that initially, in the first months of the conflict, Donald Trump accused China of a whole series of "crimes against America," among which the theft of intellectual property and unfair trade policies between countries, after which he introduced duties on a number of Chinese imports. From this moment, a series of introduction of duties by both parties began. It is worth noting that constantly until the present moment, the parties actively participated in the negotiation process, but they could not agree on anything. We note that the 13th round of negotiations has recently ended with exactly the same successes as the previous 12. The parties obviously do not want to make concessions, with each of the countries having its own version of the trade war, none of which clearly implies its speedy conclusion . China, obviously, does not want to sign an agreement that is beneficial for the United States and not advantageous for itself. It does not want to specify a particular amount for which it annually undertakes to purchase agricultural products in America the "first phase" of the agreement, and it is also not afraid of slowing its economic growth and slowing down GDP growth. It can also be assumed that Beijing is ready to wait until next November for a possible change in the president, since it is precisely because of the trade war with China that Trump may not be re-elected for a second term, believing that it will be much easier to agree with the next president. America, which, in fact, started this war can not back down and accept China's conditions, it is Trump who needs to end the trade war as soon as possible in order to regain popularity among the population, but he cannot end this conflict without victory. Thus, Donald Trump actively and regularly through the media declares that it is China that needs a trade deal with America and that Beijing needs to rush into its conclusion, otherwise new economic sanctions and duties will be introduced against it. Realizing that Beijing was ready to wait a long enough amount of time, and taking advantage of the turmoil in Hong Kong, Washington began to put new pressure on China. The US Senate passed a bill on human rights in Hong Kong, which implies that the area may lose a huge number of preferences in relations with America if it loses its autonomous status. Loses not only on paper, but in real life. The story began with the fact that China set out to pass a law on the extradition of any Hong Kong citizen, which, in the opinion of the United States, is a deprivation of autonomy. Moreover, Washington opposes the containment by the Chinese side of the riots in Hong Kong, which emerged because of the extradition law. China immediately accused the United States of interfering in China's domestic policy and demanded that Trump veto the Senate's decision. However, firstly, Trump's decision is still unknown, and secondly, for America, this situation is a new advantage in negotiations with China. All that remains now is to understand whether Beijing will continue to resist and the trade conflict will continue to blaze or whether it will begin to fulfill Trump's will. Meanwhile, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said the trade war could end in a global armed battle that would be worse than World War I. According to Kissinger, a hundred years ago, Great Britain wanted to restrain the growing strength of Germany, but now Washington is trying to restrain growing China. "At the moment, we can observe the struggle of civilizations of the West and the East, and the trade war is just one of the tools of counteraction," Kissinger said. In addition, the former secretary of state adds that, "a hundred years ago, weapons were relatively weak, but now the destruction and consequences of the conflict can be catastrophic, so wars should be avoided by any means." The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD. What awaits the UK and the pound if Brexit is implemented? Posted: 24 Nov 2019 02:49 PM PST Macroeconomic statistics from the UK over the past two weeks, as well as the results of the meeting of the British regulator, clearly and distinctly showed that the economic situation in the country is deteriorating, the economy is slowing down and needs to be stimulated. The British regulator has not yet lowered its key rate, although, in our opinion, it already had sufficient reasons to do so. However, here you need to understand that Mark Carney and the rest of the monetary committee clearly wanted to save such a serious tool of influence on the British economy in the end, at the moment when the issue with Brexit will be resolved. Unfortunately, Brexit was once again postponed, and the state of the economy continued to deteriorate. That is why, without waiting for the exit from the European Union, the Bank of England can still take such a step as lowering the key rate by 0.25%. However, given the rather serious slowdown, we believe that even such measures will not be enough to stop the decline in growth rates. We have repeatedly said that the British economy, together with the pound, has been in a fever for the past three years, but in fact, Brexit has not even taken place. We have repeatedly wondered, what will happen to the UK economy after leaving the EU, if the economic recession is so serious now? It is clear that the economies of many countries of the world are experiencing problems due to the slowdown in global economic growth caused by the China-US trade conflict. But in Britain's case, these global problems are also multiplied by the consequences of a "divorce" with the European Union. The key question for Britain, if it does leave the EU, what will its foreign trade policy be like? In which sectors of the economy and trade will it draw closer to the European Union, America, or the rest of the world? How long will the UK not have any trade deals and negotiations with all trading partners continue? Indeed, now we see that negotiations on the China-US trade agreement have been going on for more than a year, and "things are still there." Currently, the United States remains the largest source of investment for the UK, as well as the largest trading partner. Given the friendship between Boris Johnson and Donald Trump, it is really not surprising that the UK wants to further build relations primarily with America. However, it is now absolutely obvious that America wants to conclude a trade deal with Britain if it does not have similar deals with the European Union. That is, in fact, London will have to choose with whom to trade fully and with whom not. In addition, you should be aware that if negotiations are conducted with the Trump administration, it is unlikely that the trade deal will be beneficial to the UK. First of all, it will be beneficial to Washington, or negotiations will continue for several years. At the moment, it seems that countries are indeed moving towards each other, but in practice this trade agreement may never happen. Firstly, Donald Trump will have a year of presidency, elections will be held next November and the likelihood that Trump will remain at his post is extremely small. Secondly, parliamentary elections in the UK. If the Conservatives do not win a landslide victory, then they will not have enough votes to implement Brexit according to Johnson, which will delay the Brexit procedure for several months, or even years. It should also be understood that the longer Johnson cannot realize his exit from the EU, the greater the likelihood that he will leave his post ahead of schedule, just like Theresa May. Thus, from our point of view, the situation can radically change several more times, and the UK may even remain in the European Union if, for example, the Labour Party comes to power. Thus, we believe that in any case, the economic situation in Great Britain will deteriorate, and with it all macroeconomic indicators and the pound will fall. Even if Brexit is in a deal, after the initial bullish euphoria, the economic plan will again come to the fore, which will pull down the pound further. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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