On the edge of chaos

Bill Bonner’s Diary

On the Edge of Chaos

By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners

Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – What a town!

Baltimore lives on the edge of civility… like a city on the frontier of the Sahara, gradually being taken over by the desert. There are pockets of grace and charm remaining. But much of the town is already under the sand.

Yesterday, walking barely five blocks up the street, a drug-addled bum exposed himself to passersby, and a panhandler asked for money to get a cup of coffee. A moment later, fire engines appeared – sirens whining, lights blazing; a house was on fire.

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The aftermath of a fire we saw on our walk around Baltimore yesterday

Proud and Tall

Last night was the “Monument Lighting,” signaling the beginning of the Christmas season. It takes place in front of our office. There stands the nation’s first monument to George Washingon.

The monument was designed by Robert Mills, who later designed the more famous Washington Monument on the Potomac. It is based on the column in the Place Vendôme in Paris, which imitates Trajan’s Column in Rome.

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George Washington, standing proud and tall in front of our office

And there he is, George Washington, proud and tall, atop the marble column, where he has been since 1815… surveying some of the finest 19th-century architecture in the nation.

The nearby houses – as well as the Peabody music conservatory and the Walters Art Museum – are among the most elegant buildings of the era. And today, the buildings are still there, but Gen. Washington commands only a narrow strip of civilized urban America, threatened with being overrun at any moment.

On his right flank are the poor… the embittered masses and flash mobs. On his left is the city government, with its closet collectivists and visible incompetence.

Grand Larceny

Last year, the bands played loud, obnoxious music until the mayor – arriving 45 minutes late – finally took the mic. But poor Catherine Pugh made no appearance this year. She pleaded guilty to corruption charges two weeks ago and currently faces 35 years in the pen.

The Chicago Tribune explains that Ms. Pugh is hardly the first fraudster in the mayor’s office:

Pugh became Baltimore’s second mayor in less than a decade to step down because of scandal. Former Mayor Sheila Dixon left office in 2010 as part of a plea deal for misappropriating about $500 in gift cards meant for needy families.

Donald Trump was right about Baltimore. It is a “disgusting, rat and rodent-infested mess.”

But it has its charms, in a low-rent kinda way.

It is quirky. It is funky. Housing is relatively cheap. And the city makes it easy to feel superior, since half the fauna you meet on the downtown streets are either mental defectives or petty criminals.

A half an hour down Interstate 95, it is a different story completely. Where Baltimore is wild and poor, Washington is tame… and one of the richest cities in the nation. It has fancy restaurants, houses worth millions, sleek offices. There, the people you meet on the street are powerful movers and shakers. They wear Italian suits and have better manners.

Grand larceny is their game… not petty thievery.

Still Begging

The average annual wage in Washington – third-highest in the nation – is $69,000. In Baltimore, it is only $56,000. And between Baltimore’s prosperous northern suburbs, old and new, and the inner city of West Baltimore, there is an even greater gulf.

In the northern suburbs live the doctors, lawyers, and insurance salesmen. In West Baltimore struggle the addicts, unwed mothers, and gangsta teens.

Not that one group is necessarily better than the other; we don’t know who goes to Heaven. But they are different. And homogenizing them all as Baltimorians, or even just as Americans, does us a disservice.

The person born into a prosperous family in Guilford can expect to live into his 80s, more or less like a Swede or a Frenchman. But enter the world west of Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard, and life expectancies fall to barely 60; you might as well live in Haiti or Madagascar, without the good weather.

Averages obscure the picture. Put nine street vagrants together with Elon Musk, whose net worth is about $26.5 billion. You’ll get an average net worth of $2.65 billion each. But nine out of 10 of them are still begging.

Statistical Fog

A similar statistical fog hangs over the nation. Here’s Tara Westover in The Atlantic:

In recent years, growth has been hyper-concentrated in our cities, which are hubs of technology and finance. Meanwhile, the hinterlands, which rely on agriculture and manufacturing – what you might call the “old economy” – have sunk into a deep decline. There are places in the United States where the recession never ended. For them, it has been 2009 for 10 years.

Our own research team looked at the U.S. county by county. It put together a map to show which counties were in recession, coloring the depressed counties in red. You can see it yourself.

And guess what? There’s a helluva lot of red on this map. Analyst Joe Withrow explains:

The map shows that people in 2,278 counties have gotten poorer over the past 10 years. As best as we can tell, that means 73% of U.S. counties are in a depression. Seventy-three percent!

Let’s look at each of our metrics. Over the past 10 years:

  • Unemployment has increased in 56% of U.S. counties.

  • Labor force participation has decreased in 60% of U.S. counties.

  • The poverty rate has increased in 87% of U.S. counties.

  • Inflation-adjusted wage growth has decreased in 98% of U.S. counties.

Not a pretty picture. Neither in Baltimore… Nor the rest of the nation.

Regards,

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Bill

Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.

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MAILBAG

Another day of impeachment proceedings… And Dear Readers have varying opinions on the happenings in Washington…

The morality of this country is in the toilet. I think if Trump was to murder someone in the Oval Office for disagreeing with him, his brain-dead supporters would gleefully stand by him.

What amazes me even more are the women and black citizens that show support for someone who denigrates females and is obviously a racist. I do not necessarily support all of the Democrats’ points of view, but the difference between the two parties obviously demonstrates Republicans’ total disregard for right and wrong.

I think the Republican stance on supporting this president will make any intelligent human being realize the Republicans could care less about the Constitution and the rule of law.

– John G.

There is no kind way to say it: Trump’s supporters not in government are just too stupid to understand how bad he is. Trump’s supporters in the government lack integrity. Trump doesn’t care if you are stupid or lack integrity. All he cares about is if you are loyal to him. Not loyal to the USA. Not loyal to the rule of law. Just loyal to him. Remember, all he wanted from Comey was loyalty.

Anyone that can’t understand this is stupid. There’s just no nice way to say it!

– Leo G.

For all his faults, Trump has never faltered at putting America first. I would imagine with your extensive travels, you consider yourself to be at least minimally a citizen of the world. Your writings are replete with hints of your globalism. As such, you should be very aware, regardless of the machinations of government, the Swamp, the military, the Federal Reserve, on and on.

The world is a very dangerous place, and very few foreign nationals look to support our best interest as American citizens. President Trump does.

– Jon R.

Is the House justified in continuing the impeachment process? Are the president’s supporters blinded by loyalty, as Leo thinks? Write us at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

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If you are an investor… own life insurance or annuities… or have substantial savings in an FDIC-insured bank account… then you need to be aware of serious risks.

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