Nothing Left to Do But Wait…

Palm Beach Daily

Chaka’s Note: On Wednesday night, PBRG cofounder Tom Dyson is holding an urgent briefing to announce a big event. So over the next couple of days, we’re running a special evening series featuring his key insights on the current financial system.

Since 2018, Tom’s been backpacking around the globe with his family in tow… journaling what he sees unfolding in the world economy… and thinking about new ways to build long-lasting wealth.

And now, he’s revealing a bold new idea he believes will be the single-biggest moneymaking event we’ll see over the next 20 years. To get all the details, click here to register for Tom’s Emergency Investment Summit on Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET.

Then, read on below. In today’s essay, Tom shares how he’s playing the markets right now…

Nothing Left to Do But Wait…

By Tom Dyson, editor, Postcards From the Fringe

As you may know, Kate and I put all of our savings and retirement accounts into physical gold, silver, and mining stocks.

We’re waiting for the Dow-to-Gold ratio to hit 5. Then we’ll start transitioning into stocks that pay rising dividends, which we’ll use for long-term compounding.

I call these stocks “corporate aristocrats.” They’re companies with entrenched market positions, strong brand recognition, no big expansion plans, and they raise dividends relentlessly year after year.

There’s simply no better way to generate high rates of return over long periods… especially if you can buy them when they’re cheap…

We’ll stay there, most likely, for the rest of my life. In the meantime, there’s nothing left to do but wait…

Except there is one trade outside of gold that’s got my attention right now (more below).

Florida Wetlands

Greetings from our latest campground…

We’re on a road trip from Florida to Alaska…

Our little pop-up tent was cozy and comfortable. The weather is perfect (a nice breeze keeps us cool night and day), and we’re in a beautiful spot.

We were just in Port St. Lucie, Florida, camping right next to the wetlands. This was my office…

Our spot next to the wetlands

A seven-foot alligator named Stinky Pete lives in the water behind our tent. He watched us all day.

Some neighbors came over to warn us when they saw we had children. They said we shouldn’t let the children get too close to the water…

The Most Contrarian Idea in the Markets

Back to the trade I mentioned… What it comes down to is something I’ve been warning about for months: inflation.

The inflation trade is the most contrarian, most unexpected, most dismissed trading idea in the markets right now.

Bloomberg Businessweek published this magazine cover in April 2019:

The Economist published this one in October 2019:

Magazine covers show what ideas are winning in popular investing culture.

Right now, deflation owns the narrative war, and it may still have legs. But eventually, the tide will turn. When it does, trillions of dollars will come charging out of the bond markets, where they’ve fled to for safety over the past two months.

Relative to other asset classes, industrial commodities are the cheapest they’ve been in 100 years. My hypothesis is that, of the capital that comes out of the bond markets, much of it will go into commodities markets.

As I said, it may take a while for the deflation narrative to die… But uh oh… What’s this?

The prices U.S. consumers paid for groceries jumped 2.6% in April, the highest monthly jump in food prices since February 1974. Could the tide be starting to turn?

My Favorite Way to Play It

My favorite industrial commodity play right now is shipping. The shipping industry is cyclical. It responds to supply and demand. 

Currently, there are pockets of the shipping industry where you can buy ships at an 80% discount to their market values. You can buy modern ships trading near their scrap values.

It’s the most hated, ignored, depressed industry in the stock market.

There are three main categories of shippers: energy, containers, and dry bulk.

I’ve written about the energy segment before – namely, oil tankers. The dry bulk segment, on the other hand, is mainly concerned with hauling iron ore from Brazil to China. It’s getting absolutely hammered…

From the FreightWaves magazine:

After plunging 21% [last] Monday to $3,842/day, which was awful enough, Capesize drybulk shipping rates crashed down another 25% [the next day], to $2,893/day.

Can you imagine being able to hire a giant bulker for $3,000 a day? Kate and I should rent one for a day, get married on it, and then throw a big party on board…

If inflation returns, ships will do extremely well. But with how hated and depressed the industry is, you have to be very brave to invest in it now…

Regards,

Tom Dyson
Editor, Postcards From the Fringe

P.S. Going back to our gold strategy… As you know, I’m “all in.” In fact, I’ve invested nearly $1 million of my own money into this idea. I’ve written before about the benefits of buying bullion.

But there’s much more to our strategy than that. On Wednesday, May 20, I’m sharing the details in an urgent briefing. Save your spot right here.


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