Forex analysis review |
- Forecast for GBP/USD on January 4, 2020
- Forecast for AUD/USD on January 4, 2020
- Forecast for USD/JPY on January 4, 2020
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade GBP/USD on January 4? Analysis of Thursday. Getting ready for Monday
- Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on January 4? Analysis of Thursday. Getting ready for
| Forecast for GBP/USD on January 4, 2020 Posted: 03 Jan 2021 06:54 PM PST GBP/USD For the last 3-4 days, the pound has been rising under the risk of a reversal at any moment in time. A double divergence has already formed on the daily chart, and the price is currently in the free roaming range of 1.3624-1.3765. According to our main scenario, we are waiting for a price reversal to a medium-term decline in this range, that is, settling under the MACD line in the 1.3335 area.
The growth option growth seems to be more difficult: surpassing 1.3765 pushes the price into a huge range of uncertainty of about five patterns, formed in January-April 2018.
There are no more or less significant signs of a reversal on the 4-hour timescale. A Marlin divergence is expected, but is not yet ready. We look forward to clarifying the situation in the coming days. Falling under the MACD line, below 1.3540, will become a sign and a condition for moving towards 1.3335. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Forecast for AUD/USD on January 4, 2020 Posted: 03 Jan 2021 06:54 PM PST AUD/USD The Australian dollar was marked on the upper divergence line for the second time and is slightly retreating this morning. Overcoming the signal level of 0.7640 (December 17 high), and falling towards the first target of 0.7465 (December 21 low) is likely. Accordingly, we are waiting for the signal line of the Marlin oscillator to leave its own downward channel.
Falling below the signal level of 0.7640 will correspond to overcoming the support of the MACD line (blue indicator) on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator will already be in the negative zone by this time.
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| Forecast for USD/JPY on January 4, 2020 Posted: 03 Jan 2021 06:54 PM PST USD/JPY The new year did not bring any clarity for the Japanese yen. Until the end of winter, the markets will be strongly concerned about the fall in stock markets due to the expected increase in tax rates by the new US president as well as the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve before the end of the new year, while under Trump, investors did not expect any tightening and are not wait for another year and a half, but hints may follow soon.
Formally, the yen gave a signal for rising towards the previously set target of 102.35, as it opened below the signal today - target level of 103.18, but the market fluctuation is volatile and the signal is not stable, although there is a 75% probability that it could fall.
The four-hour chart shows that the price is developing in a downward trend under the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is decreasing in the bears' area. We are waiting for the price to move down even further. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2021 01:51 PM PST Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair continued to rise last Thursday morning, but traders quickly calmed down (in contrast to the EUR/USD pair) and a sideways movement began in a narrow channel. Thus, the pound ended 2020 on a positive note, but was absolutely calm. The upward trend line supports bull traders as it has been slightly re-formed. Thus, the upward movement is still relevant now, as well as buy orders. At the same time, there is a very small distance to the trend line itself, which traders can cover in a day or even faster. Therefore, you also need to be prepared for a possible change in trend. In the same way as for the euro, not a single buy signal was generated in the final days of 2020. The MACD indicator never once discharged to the zero level, and the price never approached the trend line. Thus, novice traders could trade bullish, but at their own peril and risk. We still recommend that beginners enter the market only if there are strong and clear signals. Fundamentally, there is still absolutely nothing to say now. There was a lot of different important information for the pound in the final days of 2020, but the key event - the negotiation of a deal between the UK and the European Union - was one thing. All other events were a consequence of the conclusion of the deal. Thus, we do not believe that news like Prime Minister Boris Johnson's signing of the deal or the agreement of European diplomats to introduce a "temporary use" of the deal in order to ratify it later, could support one or the other currency. Let's remember that the pound grew without any difficulties in 2020, even when there were no particular reasons for this. The euro was also growing and also hitting 2.5-year highs. Therefore, we are even more inclined to think that the US dollar played an important role in strengthening the euro and the pound. No less because of the low demand for this currency, the euro and the pound grew. The UK is set to publish its Manufacturing PMI on Monday, January 4. The indicator is projected to rise to 57.3. Thus, the pound can get a little more market support, although it absolutely does not need it, since it even managed to end 2020 without the slightest pullback and at absolute highs. Possible scenarios for January 4: 1) Buy orders are valid again, since the price remains above the trend line. Thus, we recommend that novice traders continue to trade up if the MACD indicator discharges to zero (this requires a correction) and creates a new buy signal. Or the price will rebound off the trend line. Targets - resistance levels 1.3692 and 1.3769. 2) Sell positions are not relevant now, since there is an eloquent upward trend. Thus, to be able to consider shorts, you should wait for the price to settle below the trend line. Targets for short positions - support levels 1.3523 and 1.3446. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 03 Jan 2021 01:51 PM PST Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair started a sharp downward movement last Thursday, which led to the fact that the quotes consolidated below the upward trend line, which supported the bullish traders all this time and made it possible for buyers to earn more than a dozen points. However, at the moment we can conclude that the upward trend is over. Hence, novice traders should now consider trading bearish. Since the euro fell by 90 points on the final day of 2020 and did not even have time to start a round of upward correction, on Monday we recommend waiting for a round of upward correction and only when it has ended should you consider the possibility of opening new short positions. It was very problematic to open new long positions at the end of last year, since the price never came close to the trend line to rebound off it, and the MACD indicator never discharged to zero to create a new strong buy signal. Thus, beginners could try to work out a new upward trend, but there were no strong signals that we recommend tracking. Last Thursday, December 31, oddly enough, a couple of reports were published in America. However, we could only pay attention to applications for unemployment benefits. The number of primaries was 787,000, which is below forecasts and, therefore, good for the dollar. The number of secondary ones fell to 5.219 million, which is also below forecasts. Thus, we can conclude that unemployment in America continues to fall, which is good for the dollar. However, we cannot conclude that the dollar's growth from last Thursday is somehow connected with this report. The US and the European Union will publish manufacturing PMIs on Monday, January 4. However, they are unlikely to cause at least some market reaction. The only thing is that we will be able to understand whether the contraction of business activity in the EU or in the United States has begun at the end of December. Although both indices are forecast to be well above 50, no contraction is expected. No more important topics now either. In America, everyone is preparing for a change of president, but again we cannot conclude that this upcoming event is somehow connected with the dollar's decline in recent months and even during most of 2020. Possible scenarios on January 4: 1) Long positions have lost their relevance at the moment, as quotes have consolidated below the trend line. Thus, in order to be able to re-consider buying the pair, it is necessary to wait for a new upward trend or an eloquent cancellation of the downward trend that exists at the given time. 2) Trading for a fall looks more practical right now, but since the price has already passed 90 points on December 31, we need to wait for an upward rollback and the MACD indicator to discharge to zero. Only after that will it be possible to consider the possibility of opening new sell positions while aiming for support levels 1.2219 and 1.2189. On the chart: Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now. Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels. The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines). Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal. Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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