MTM Options Trader Newsletter - Logical Steps for Developing Short-Term Trade Strategies

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This Week in the Market

This market has not been very friendly to swing traders with volatile swings almost every session and unpredictable opens on a daily basis. Day traders love this action, but for option traders holding positions overnight? Not so much. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are all trading below their 50-day moving averages but above their 200-day moving averages. The big question becomes which one will they play tag with first and when? In fairness, the 200-day MA is further away and would need a bigger drop lower compared with a rally to the 50-day MA. Implied volatility has risen but made a nice drop lower on Friday. The market may soon react to news about the infrastructure bill, but at the time of this writing the vote was on hold.

Not that there isn't enough going on in Congress, but this week may set the tone for the Federal Reserve going forward based on the September jobs report due out Friday before the open. This report has been referenced several times by members. A few other economic reports are due out this week and are listed below. Have a great week of trading and don't forget to check the expected earnings announcement before placing any trade. Quarterly earnings are creeping up fast. Have a safe and healthy week!

Oct 4: Factory Orders
Oct 5: Trade Deficit
Oct 7: Jobless Claims
Oct 7: Consumer Credit
Oct 8: Unemployment

Logical Steps for Developing Short-Term Trade Strategies

When creating short-term trade strategies, the first task is to understand what upcoming fundamental events are likely to have the biggest impact. In the financial markets at this point, employment and inflation data have the most impact on stocks, ETFs, bonds, foreign exchange, precious metals and even energies.

On the first Friday each month the Labor Department releases the employment report. A week after that we typically get inflation (CPI) and retail sales numbers. And near the end of the month, we see the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's benchmark inflation gauge for

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MTM Watchlist

Here are some trade ideas we will explore in group coaching class this week:

AAPL – The stock looked weak and was heading lower until Friday's rally. Potential bear call spreads around the $145 level as well as calendar spreads will be discussed.

MO – The stock got smoked lower last week and rallied into the close on Friday. If it can get over some resistance at $46, it would be a nice opportunity to rally as it has several times in the past since April. Long calls may be looked at.

AMZN – We have modeled out many call credit spreads on this stock as resistance levels continue to hold. More will be considered this week too.

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The strategies in this newsletter are for educational and informative purposes only. All information disclosed in this newsletter should not be considered complete in its entirety. Market Taker Mentoring, Inc. will not be held responsible for changes, oversights, errors or omissions. Dates, prices, news and other information may not be accurate. Please verify all information before trading. You alone are responsible for your own investment decisions.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading options, please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Option (ODD), which can be obtained from your broker; by calling (888) OPTIONS; or from The Options Clearing Corp., 125 S. Franklin St., Suite 1200, Chicago, IL 60606. No statement in this newsletter is intended to be a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to provide investment or trading advice. Traders and investors considering options should consult a professional tax advisor as to how taxes may affect the outcome of contemplated options transactions.

Copyright Market Taker Mentoring, Inc. 2008 - 2021. All rights reserved. Reproducing or redistributing this content is a violation of federal law.

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