2017-11-07
USD/JPY has been trading in a volatile and corrective manner towards the resistance area of 114.25-50 from where the price is currently expected to show some bearish move. JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent gains which has led to a strong bullish rejection. Today Japan's Average Cash Earnings report was published with an increased value of 0.9% from the previous value of 0.7% which was expected to decrease to 0.6%. The positive economic report from Japan did not quite help the currency to keep the momentum but any weakness in the upcoming US economic report may lead to further bearish pressure in this pair. On the USD side, today IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 51.2 from the previous figure of 50.3, JOLTS Job Opening report is expected to post a decrease to 5.98M from the previous figure of 6.08M, Consumer Credit report is expected to show significant growth to 18.4B from the previous figure of 13.1B. Besides, FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today on interest rate plans and future monetary policy. His speech is expected to be hawkish for the currency as he has been in favor of stepping back from some banking regulations. If he holds to his point, USD is expected to gain momentum. Along with these economic reports and events, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is going to speak today about interest rates and monetary policy. She is likely to disclose her retirement on February 2018 from the pffice. As for the current scenario, USD is expected to gain momentum against JPY if the economic reports and events come positive today. Otherwise, we might see further JPY pressure in the pair if the upcoming economic reports this week may help the currency to push the price lower. The market situation is currently quite uncertain ahead of the upcoming Fed Rate Hike in December.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the 114.25-50 resistance area whereas the recent bearish move with strong bullish rejection indicates that JPY is currently trying to push the price lower. We can also see a Bearish Continuing Divergence developing throughout the volatile bullish gain which indeed indicates the lack of a bullish volume in the market and upcoming bearish pressure in the pair. As the price remains below 114.25-50 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 111.60 support area.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
GBP/USD has been trading with a bearish bias in a volatile manner after the Bank of England raised interest rates last week. The bearish pressure was bit of a surprise for the market as GBP was expected to receive a boost from the increase of Official Bank Rate to 0.50% from the previous value of 0.25%. The MPC votes were also bullish for the currency but still GBP failed to gain the bullish momentum against USD last week. Today, The UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor report was published with a negative value of -1.0% which previously was positive at 1.9% and Halifax HPI report was also published with a decreased value of 0.3% from the previous value of 0.8% but slight better than expectation of 0.2%. The worse results of the economic reports added to the bearish pressure for GBP and signaled a further bearish trajectory. On the USD side, today IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 51.2 from the previous figure of 50.3, JOLTS Job Opening report is expected to show a decrease to 5.98M from the previous figure of 6.08M, Consumer Credit report is expected to show significant growth to 18.4B from the previous figure of 13.1B. Besides, FOMC Member Quarles and Fed Chair Yellen are going to speak today about the nation's key interest rates and monetary policy. Both of them are expected to be hawkish. To sum up, USD is currently looking forward for the Rate Hike in December whereas weakness of GBP signals that USD is likely to gain further momentum in the future taking the price much lower.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 1.3140-1.3270 area and below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates that the price bears are still in control and further bearish pressure towards 1.2800 support area is expected in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3270 resistance area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is set to continue further.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Trade Recommendations
Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 for evident bullish recovery and a possible short-term BUY entry.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline should be expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
On the other hand, if the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback and a short-term BUY entry can be expected during this week's consolidations.
The next DEMAND level to meet the pair is located around 0.6710 that maybe visited if enough bearish pressure is applied below 0.6800.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Wave summary:
Resistance at 133.15 should continue to cap the upside for a test of short-term important support near 131.60 and a clear break below here will confirm that wave (D) completed with the test of 134.49 and wave (E) towards 123.43 is developing.
Short-term minor resistance is seen at 132.86.
R3: 133.98
R2: 133.15
R1: 132.86
Pivot: 132.00
S1: 131.60
S2: 131.00
S3: 130.56
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 132.59 with stop placed at 134.55.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Wave summary:
We continue to look for more downside pressure towards 1.6545 to complete wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave iii towards 1.7770. Short-term resistance is now seen at 1.6760, which ideally will cap the upside for the expected decline to 1.6545
R3: 1.6890
R2: 1.6800
R1: 1.6760
Pivot: 16695
S1: 1.6686
S2: 1.6636
S3: 1.6545
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.6790 and we will move our stop lower to 1.6890. Take profit will be placed at 1.6565.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 07, 2017
2017-11-07
2017-11-07
GBP/USD has been trading with a bearish bias in a volatile manner after the Bank of England raised interest rates last week. The bearish pressure was bit of a surprise for the market as GBP was expected to receive a boost from the increase of Official Bank Rate to 0.50% from the previous value of 0.25%. The MPC votes were also bullish for the currency but still GBP failed to gain the bullish momentum against USD last week. Today, The UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor report was published with a negative value of -1.0% which previously was positive at 1.9% and Halifax HPI report was also published with a decreased value of 0.3% from the previous value of 0.8% but slight better than expectation of 0.2%. The worse results of the economic reports added to the bearish pressure for GBP and signaled a further bearish trajectory. On the USD side, today IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 51.2 from the previous figure of 50.3, JOLTS Job Opening report is expected to show a decrease to 5.98M from the previous figure of 6.08M, Consumer Credit report is expected to show significant growth to 18.4B from the previous figure of 13.1B. Besides, FOMC Member Quarles and Fed Chair Yellen are going to speak today about the nation's key interest rates and monetary policy. Both of them are expected to be hawkish. To sum up, USD is currently looking forward for the Rate Hike in December whereas weakness of GBP signals that USD is likely to gain further momentum in the future taking the price much lower.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 1.3140-1.3270 area and below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates that the price bears are still in control and further bearish pressure towards 1.2800 support area is expected in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.3270 resistance area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is set to continue further.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Trade Recommendations
Price action should be watched around the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 for evident bullish recovery and a possible short-term BUY entry.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline should be expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
On the other hand, if the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback and a short-term BUY entry can be expected during this week's consolidations.
The next DEMAND level to meet the pair is located around 0.6710 that maybe visited if enough bearish pressure is applied below 0.6800.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Wave summary:
Resistance at 133.15 should continue to cap the upside for a test of short-term important support near 131.60 and a clear break below here will confirm that wave (D) completed with the test of 134.49 and wave (E) towards 123.43 is developing.
Short-term minor resistance is seen at 132.86.
R3: 133.98
R2: 133.15
R1: 132.86
Pivot: 132.00
S1: 131.60
S2: 131.00
S3: 130.56
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 132.59 with stop placed at 134.55.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 7, 2017
2017-11-07
Wave summary:
We continue to look for more downside pressure towards 1.6545 to complete wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave iii towards 1.7770. Short-term resistance is now seen at 1.6760, which ideally will cap the upside for the expected decline to 1.6545
R3: 1.6890
R2: 1.6800
R1: 1.6760
Pivot: 16695
S1: 1.6686
S2: 1.6636
S3: 1.6545
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.6790 and we will move our stop lower to 1.6890. Take profit will be placed at 1.6565.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 07, 2017
2017-11-07
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair broke the resistance at the price of 0.9998 which acts as support since last week.The pair has already formed major support at 0.9942. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.9898. And the minor support is seen at 0.9998 now. On the H1 chart, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.9942. Buy above the minor support of 0.9942 with targets at the levels of 1.0050 and 1.0100. Moreover, if the pair closes below the minor support (0.9942), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.9898. Briefly, the minor support is seen at the level of 0.9942. It will be profitable to buy above the spot of 0.9940 with the targets of 0.9998, 1.0050 and 1.0100. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed at the 0.9900 level on the H1 chart. We are still looking for a strong bullish market in coming two days.
Obseravtions:
Pivot point is seen at the price of 0.9998.
Major support sets at the level of 0.9942.
It should be noted that if the trend is buoyant, then the strength in this currency pair will be defined as follows: USD is in an uptrend and CHF is in a downtrend.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 07, 2017
2017-11-07
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair is still trading around the area of 0.6818 and 0.6968. Last week, the NZD/USD pair rebounded from the level of 0.6818 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.6818 which represents the daily support 1t on the H4 chart. The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.6968. The price was in a bullish channel since this morning. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.6818. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.6818, the market is still in an uptrend. In addition, the trend is still strong above the moving average (MA100). The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements last two days. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.6818 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6968. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.6968, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.7207 in order to test the daily resistance 2. It should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.7207 today. On the other hand, it would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the level of 0.6703.
GBP/USD analysis for November 07, 2017
2017-11-07
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3177. Anyway, according to the 15M time - frame, I found a broken upward channel and potential double top formation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. There is also a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3096 (pivot support 1) and at the price of 1.3055 (swing low).
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3212
R2: 1.3252
R3: 1.3330
Support levels:
S1: 1.3096
S2: 1.3055
S3: 1.3280
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Analysis of Gold for November 07, 2017
2017-11-07
Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,276.00. According to the 15M time – frame, I found a supply trendline, which is holding. It also indicates that sellers are in control today. There is also a breakout of the pivot level of $1,276.95, which is another sign that there is weakness in the background. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward tarrgets are set at the price of $1,271.10 (pivot support 1) and at the price of $1,265.50 (swing low).
Resistance levels:
R1: $1,287.83
R2: $1,293.80
R3: $1,304.70
Support levels:
S1: $1,270.97
S2: $2,260.10
S3: $1,254.11
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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