2018-07-31
GBP/USD has been slightly bullish recently after retesting the 1.32 as resistance. The price is expected to trade with the bearish bias in the coming days. The pair is likely to trade with higher volatility ahead of the widely-expected rate hike by the Bank of England to 0.75% from the previous value of 0.50% along with BOE Outlook reports this Thursday.
Today, there is no macroeconomic report to support GBP gains, but a series of economic reports will be published on Thursday. The rate hike decision is viewed as the necessity by the Bank of England to keep the economy running and avoid the risk of turning into recession. Though GBP has been weighed down by lingering trade jitters and uncertainty in the Brexit talks, the rate hike on Thursday is expected to provide the definite momentum and set the near-term course for the pound sterling.
On the other hand, ahead of the NFP report this week which is expected to be quite mixed, despite the recent positive Pending Home Sales report, USD failed to gain momentum which indicates the market sentiment on GBP/USD. Today, US Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, Employment Cost Index is expected to decrease to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.8%, Personal Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, Personal Income is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, and Chicago PMI is expected to decrease to 61.9 from the previous figure of 64.1. Additionally, the most significant report of all, CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published today as well which is expected to show a slight increase to 126.5 from the previous figure of 126.4.
At present, GBP has a lot to show this week amid the important policy decision like a rate hike which is not frequently taken by the British regulator. Since the recession of 2008-2009, this will be the 2nd Rate Hike for the UK so far which is expected to inject a good amount of volatility and trigger price swings this week. On the USD side, the forecasts are quite mixed and expected to put the market into indecision before the news is published. If the US manages to publish better than expected reports today, we might see further downward momentum in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing higher to reach the 1.32 area for another retest before the price push lower as per long-term trend existing in the market since April 2018 rejecting off the 1.4375 area. Currently the price is expected to push lower with target towards 1.2950 area and as the price remains below 1.32 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
SUPPORT: 1.2950
RESISTANCE: 1.3200
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for July 31, 2018
2018-07-31
USD/CAD is currently quite indecisive and volatile above 1.30 psychological level from where the bullish pressure is expected to continue further for a while. Though USD has found support from the recent economic reports, it failed to sustain strength further against CAD.
Ahead of the NFP report this week which is expected to be quite mixed, despite the recent positive Pending Home Sales report, USD failed to gain momentum which indicates the strength and market sentiment on this pair. Today, US Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, Employment Cost Index is expected to decrease to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.8%, Personal Spending is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.2%, Personal Income is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, and Chicago PMI is expected to decrease to 61.9 from the previous figure of 64.1. Moreover, the most significant report of all, CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published today as well which is expected to show a slight increase to 126.5 from the previous figure of 126.4.
On the other hand, today Canadian GDP report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%, RMPI is expected to decrease to 2.7% from the previous value of 3.8%, and IPPI is also expected to decrease to 0.3% from the previous value of 1.0%.
Meanwhile, both currencies in the pair are quite indecisive ahead of economic reports. Before US nonfarm payrolls on Friday, certain volatility may strike the market, but USD is expected to have an upper hand over CAD in the long term.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the Kumo Cloud support as well as the psychological level support of 1.30 area from where the price is expected to push higher as per the trend structural formation and momentum it had. As for the current price formation, as the price remains above 1.30 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 1.34 in the future.
SUPPORT: 1.30
RESISTANCE: 1.34
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE AND CORRECTIVE
USD/CHF Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!
2018-07-31
USDCHF is approaching support at 0.9858 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where we expect price to bounce up to its resistance at 0.9970 (61.8% & 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its support 4.37% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
USD/CHF is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.
Buy above 0.9858. Stop loss at 0.9796. Take profit at 0.9970.
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 31, 2018
2018-07-31
GBP/USD analysis for July 31, 2018
2018-07-31
Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3163. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found testing of upper diagonal of the channel (resistance), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a broken upward trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3070 and at the price of 1.2960.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3160
R2: 1.3183
R3: 1.3215
Support levels:
S1: 1.3105
S2: 1.3075
S3: 1.3052
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Analysis of Gold for July 31, 2018
2018-07-31
Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,217.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of the upward correction (abc flat) in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found lower lows and lower highs, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,211.00.
Resistance levels:
R1: $1,223.90
R2: $1,226.80
R3: $1,229.70
Support levels:
S1: $1,218.00
S2: $1,215.20
S3: $1,212.30
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 31, 2018
2018-07-31
Overview:The NZD/USD pair continues to trade downwards from the levels of 0.6807/0.6840 (bearish channel). The pair has dropped from the level of 0.6807 to trade around the 0.6824 level. This level of 0.6807 coincides with the minor resistance today. Today, the first resistance levels are seen at 0.6807/0.8640 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6840, then this scenario may be invalidated.
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