Forex News 24

Want Market Direction? Read This
FlexTrade integrates pre-trade model into EMS
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD Eye Trend-Forecasting Patterns
What Is the Gold Price Rally Telling Macro Investors?
Paradise Waits
Bachelor In Paradise Reviews and After Show – AfterBuzz TV
Another Day In Paradise
Doctor Who: The Price of Paradise
201A
Rave – Watch Together

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 02:27 PM PST

Despite the potential for shorter-term resistance, it appears more stock market gains are coming

"Where's the market headed?"

That's the question every investor wants to know.

For all the talk of major trends, fundamentals, technicals, China, the Fed, and all the other influences that affect the investment markets, what we really want is a crystal ball — what's next?

While no one can predict the future, here at InvestorPlace, we're proud to feature some of the most insightful, successful analysts in the industry. Given this tremendous resource, in this Digest, let's go straight to three of our analysts to get their current thoughts on the market, where it's headed, and what that means for your investment dollars today.

***Let's start with famed investor and editor of Growth Investor, Louis Navellier

Louis is a master of finding companies with massive earnings growth, which, at the end of the day, is what drives stock values. On Tuesday, Louis gave the following update to his subscribers:

There was plenty of love on Wall Street last week. The stock market celebrated fourth-quarter earnings, a bipartisan budget deal, the avoidance of another government shutdown and positive developments in the China-U.S. trade negotiations. In particular, as worries about a government shutdown and a China trade deal dissipated, the stock market staged a nice relief rally.

The biggest distraction for the stock market in the coming weeks will now be Britain's impending exit from the European Union on March 29. The Brexit is already serving as a disaster for both the British pound and the euro. On the other hand, the Brexit has been a boon for the U.S. dollar, as it has strengthened from the recent international flight of capital.

With foreign capital pouring into the U.S., not only has the U.S. dollar strengthened further, but U.S. Treasury yields have also moderated significantly. Along with remarkably stable Treasury yields, inflation remains tame. Last week, the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in January at 1.6%, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) slipped 0.1% last month. So, the Federal Reserve is not expected to raise key interest rates anytime soon.

As you may have guessed, that continues to bode well for stock market appreciation, since investors are no longer worried about the Fed raising rates. Instead, Wall Street can focus its attention on the stunning fourth-quarter earnings season and fundamentally superior stocks.

However, as we've discussed before, the fourth-quarter earnings season will likely represent "peak earnings" for many companies. Year-over-year comparisons are becoming more difficult, and the S&P 500's earnings are expected to decelerate sharply in the upcoming months.

As long as we continue to focus on companies with strong sales and earnings growth, we'll continued to do well in a decelerating earnings environment.

Louis goes on to identify four specific sectors he is looking at for outperformance in 2019. To get his thoughts, click here.

***Meanwhile, two of our expert traders, John Jagerson and Wade Hansen, also see the potential for more gains to come

John and Wade are the minds behind Strategic Trader, which uses a combination of fundamental and technical market analysis to profit from trades on stocks and options. On Wednesday, they wrote the following to subscribers:

We have been watching retail spending and consumer sentiment closely in 2019. Official reports, with few exceptions, have remained very positive this year, even if sentiment data are slightly off their prior highs.

The U.S. economy is primarily driven by consumption, which comprises 70%-80% of GDP. If consumers stop spending or confidence dips, the economy will follow.

Consumption data strongly suggest that we should be in good shape to challenge last year's highs in the major indexes. If we see some profit-taking at this level while investors sort through the data, we should be able to leverage that into new investments at undervalued prices and some additional premium-selling opportunities.

The Federal Reserve also released the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes today (Wednesday). The statement was mostly a repeat of what was said in the actual meeting last month. Comments within the statement about below-expectations inflation and growth concerns in China could be interpreted as dovish (lower rates), which should be supportive in the short term for stocks over the next week.

***And last, another one of our options experts, Ken Trester, sees some shorter-term resistance, yet also growing fatigue from the bears

On Feb 20, Trester wrote the following to his Maximum Options subscribers:

Even after eight consecutive higher closes on a weekly basis, the major indices in the U.S. continued to the upside on Tuesday as the markets reopened following the Presidents' Day holiday.

The S&P 500 added 4 points, or 0.15%, to close just under the 2,780 level. It hit a mid-day high of 2,787.33 before pulling back slightly into the close, but it was able to close above its 200-day moving average once again.

However, as you can see in the chart above, the index is coming up on some strong overhead resistance at the 2,800 level, where it was rejected several times during the final quarter of 2018. You can also see in the upper panel of the chart that the relative strength indicator (RSI) has now reached overbought levels again.

Traders often use indicators such as the RSI to determine whether a stock or index is in "overbought" or "oversold" territory. Typically, an RSI reading above 70 tells traders that an asset is overbought, or overvalued, while a reading below 30 tells traders that an asset is oversold, or undervalued.

The fact that the RSI is right around 70 this week tells me that we could be in for a pullback over the near term.

Lastly, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has now closed below the 15 level for two trading days in a row and is continuing to move lower this morning. With both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages turning lower, it looks like the bears are getting tired of fighting against the uptrend that has persisted since the start of 2019.

As of the time of this writing, the VIX is down 3.4% on the day to 13.97, well below 15. So, it appears Ken's call that the bears are getting tired is continuing.

***So, let's summarize our analysts' views

Louis is pointing toward a slimmer opportunity set for U.S. stocks going forward in 2019, but he still sees plenty of gains for fundamentally-superior stocks.

John and Wade believe the U.S. consumer is in solid shape, which should drive GDP and help push the market indices back to last year's highs, though we might see some shorter-term profit taking.

Ken thinks that elevated RSI levels might mean we're in for a short-term pullback, yet the technical action of the VIX suggests the bears are running out of steam.

Combined, this points toward cautious optimism for U.S. stock gains. Of course, pay attention to your stop-losses, and make sure your reasons for buying and owning your specific investments are still in place. We'll continue to keep you updated.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

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FlexTrade integrates pre-trade model into EMS

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 02:08 PM PST

Modelling tool helps users plan trades, cashflow and hedging ahead of time
2018-11-08 11:56:11

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AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD Eye Trend-Forecasting Patterns

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 02:02 PM PST

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast

AUD/USD finds itself in a bearish reversal pattern, will it fall?
AUD/JPY meanwhile is in a bullish one, perhaps eyeing gains
AUD/NZD solidified a descending channel, downtrend to resume?

Have a question about what's in store for Australian Dollar next week? Join a Trading Q&A Webinar to ask it live!

In this week's poll, the top two requested Aussie crosses to cover in addition to AUD/USD were AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD. For the opportunity to participate in the future, I will be conducting votes every week on my Twitter account which you may follow here @ddubrovskyFX. There, you will also find more timely updates on the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Bearish

Previously, I offered a neutral outlook on AUD/USD as prices were on the verge of testing critical resistance between 0.71452 and 0.71645. Another obstacle that was standing in its way was a descending trend line from the middle of January. This past week, this area proved too difficult to break as expected. The fundamental backdrop for AUD/USD's decline was as a result of China's Dalian Port banning Australian coal imports.

Looking for a technical perspective on the Australian Dollar? Check out the Weekly AUD Technical Forecast.

Looking at the AUD/USD daily chart below, it appears we have a descending head and shoulders candlestick pattern. This is typically seen as a bearish reversal formation. Prices find themselves sitting right around the right shoulder. If resistance holds, the pair may turn lower and test the neckline of the pattern. This is defined by the downward sloping support line from January 8 (third parallel red dashed line below). A climb that holds above 0.71645 may overturn this bearish reversal warning sign.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/JPY Technical Outlook:Bullish

AUD/JPY also seems to find itself within a candlestick formation, this one is an ascending triangle. Looking at the daily chart below, this pattern is constructed by combining the rising support line from the beginning of this year with the February highs (79.84). Ascending triangles are typically seen as continuation patterns and would imply that AUD/JPY's upward progress since January could have more room to go.

A close above 79.84 with confirmation could be this bullish signal. The problem is that immediately above this candlestick formation is a range of former support now resistance between 80.62 and 81.14. This area proved to be a formidable point of interest on multiple occasions since May 2018. Closing above it exposes December highs. Meanwhile, a descent through triangle support exposes 77.49 followed by 75.24.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

AUD/NZD Technical Outlook:Slightly Bearish

AUD/NZD paused its descent from late January this past week after key support held at 1.03686. Prices turned cautiously higher amidst positive RSI divergence pointed out last week which showed fading downside momentum. I thought that the break under persistent support at 1.04347 would ensue a resumption of the dominant downtrend. That was not the case. But, the rebound this past week failed to push back above it.

This past week, AUD/NZD solidified a descending channel as a falling resistance line from January prevented a more aggressive turnaround. The support line of the channel goes back to early January. If this channel holds, AUD/NZD may see the dominant downtrend from August 2018 resume. If this is the case, it will get another shot at pushing through the June/February 2017 lows on the chart below.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart

* Charts created in TradingView

FX Trading Resources

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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What Is the Gold Price Rally Telling Macro Investors?

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 01:57 PM PST

Key Talking Points from the Podcast:

Gold continues to gain despite lagging inflation concerns and a strong USD
Emerging Markets and Commodities have started 2019 on a hot streak
Inflation concerns are not keeping investors up at night according to a specific model
Catch all episodes of the DailyFX Podcast, Trading Global Markets decoded here

Data source: Bloomberg

What's Going On?

The price of gold has been rallying up due to the concern about Venezuela's political situation and the European slowdown.

What Does This Mean?

Since the price of gold is tied to the USD, the performance of the dollar influences the direction of the price of gold. However, the USD is a small factor influencing the current gold uptrend. The main factors influencing gold is the fear found amongst investors.

The European slowdown has caused investors to be worried as to where the Euro will stand. With German business confidence decreasing and the Fed meeting approaching, investors may be coping with nerves by purchasing gold.

Why Is This Important?

The current uncertainty in the economic landscape may further increase the price of gold since investors tend to lean towards gold when markets are unsure and worrisome.

Data source: Bloomberg

What's Going On?

When looking at the graph above, we see that the MSCI and the commodities index have been moving in the same direction.

What Does This Mean?

It appears that the commodity index is rising due to potential positive relations between the U.S and China. President Trump and President Xi Jinping seem to be getting close to an agreement, which reduces market uncertainty and could further help emerging markets and commodities.

What's Going On?

10-year US bond yields have remained low and with the Fed's dovish stance, it may continue this way.

What Does This Mean?

According to the Adrian Crump Term Premium Model, it is assumed that inflation and fear from investors are positively correlated. Therefore, this would indicate that the yields will continue to remain low since there is currently no fear of inflation per the model. If this is the case, based on the Adrian & Crump model, there would be little reason to use gold to hedge inflation.

What's Going On?

The equity markets have continued to push up without the support of fundamentals. This is partly due to the liquidity injected into the market, which artificially pushed the market to a higher level.

What Does This Mean?

Recently, senior analyst Tyler Yell interviewed former Federal Reserve advisor, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who made a great statement regarding the severity of the current market situation. She states that, "we are sitting at a negative $20 billion per month of central bank liquidity vs. a prior $100 billion per month aggregate flood. This is a huge swing of the liquidity pendulum and I have no idea what the repercussions will be going forward as an experiment of this magnitude has never been implemented and subsequently unwound."The interview can be found here.

— Written by Nancy Pakbaz, CFA

Follow Nancy on Twitter @NancyPakbazFX

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Paradise Waits

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 01:56 PM PST

As the days turn into weeks and the weeks roll into months, it’s the moments when everything seems to come together in perfect harmony that resonate the loudest. For those who anticipate winter’s arrival with frothing mouths and the dreams of what may come,this past year came with an unfamiliar set of struggles as these perfect moments became more and more elusive. But for the TGR team, this only hardened their pursuit of winter’s rewards. Through the highs and lows of a curious season, they come to find that the moments found on the other side of adversity are the greatest moments of all. From the award-winning filmmaking crew that brought you 2014’s Almost Ablaze, comes the story of one weird winter and the people who celebrate it… Paradise Waits – a ski and snowboard film.

By Teton Gravity Research

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Bachelor In Paradise Reviews and After Show – AfterBuzz TV

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 01:55 PM PST

Bachelor In Paradise Reviews and After Show – AfterBuzz TV

By AfterBuzz TV

Download from Itunes

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Another Day In Paradise

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 01:54 PM PST

Another Day In Paradise

By Phil Collins

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This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Doctor Who: The Price of Paradise

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 01:52 PM PST

Laylora, the Paradise Planet, is a world of breath-taking beauty, where peace-loving aboriginals live in harmony with their environment. Or do they? The Doctor and Rose arrive to find that the once-perfect eco-system is showing signs of failing. The paradise planet has become a death trap as terrifying creatures from ancient legends appear and stalk the land.

Is there a connection between the human explorers who have crash-landed and the savage monsters? What secret lies at the heart of the natives’ ancient ceremonies? And what price might one human have to pay to save the only home he has ever known? When a planet itself becomes sick, can there be a cure? The Doctor and Rose find themselves in a race against time to find out.

Featured are the Doctor and Rose as played by David Tennant and Billie Piper in the hit series from BBC Television. Read by Shaun Dingwall, who played Pete Tyler in the TV series.

By Colin Brake

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201A

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 01:50 PM PST

Hoping for a second chance at love, the cast arrives at their own private paradise in Vallarta-Nayarit, Mexico. The mood changes quickly when a mystery woman enters Paradise.

By Bachelor in Paradise

Download from Itunes

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Rave – Watch Together

Posted: 22 Feb 2019 01:48 PM PST

Everything is more fun with friends. Whether it’s the latest Netflix show, or the hottest music video on YouTube, sync up with Rave and never watch alone again.

– BINGE Netflix together with friends
– WATCH videos and listen to music with people from around the world
– ENJOY YouTube, Vimeo, Viki, Reddit, and more
– UPLOAD your videos to Dropbox and Google Drive for global movie nights
– CONNECT with friends by texting or talking while you watch
– SYNC your phones into an instant speaker system
– JOIN friends on iOS, other phones, and even in virtual reality
– CREATE your own mashups by mixing music with RaveDJ

Instagram: GetRaveApp
Facebook: GetRave
Twitter: @GetRaveApp