Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Posted: 03 Mar 2019 02:14 AM PST

Equity Analysis and News

S&P 500 | Topside Resistance Holds for Now
DAX | Eyes on Further Upside Ahead of 12000

S&P 500 | Topside Resistance Holds for Now

A relatively uninspiring week for the S&P 500, holding a tight range. Topside resistance at 2800 continues to hold for now as the S&P 500 fails to consolidate above, which in turn suggests that the move to the upside is somewhat exhausted. Near-term support for the index is situated at 2730-40.

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Jun 2018 – Mar 2019)

How to Trade S&P 500 Index: Strategies, Tips & Trading Hours

DAX | Eyes on Further Upside Ahead of 12000

Strong gains for the DAX across the week, rising over 1.2% having made a break through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and descending trendline. Focus now turn towards the 50% Fibo, in which a closing break could see the index move towards the psychological 12000 level.

Looking for a fundamental perspective on equity? Check out the Weekly Equity Fundamental Forecast.

DAX Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (Nov 2017 – Mar 2019)

How to Trade Dax 30: Trading Strategies and Tips

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast – GBPAUD Eyes Brexit Referendum Levels. AUDUSD, AUDJPY May Breakout

Oil Forecast– Trump’s Tweet Sees Bulls Rush In

British Pound Forecast – GBP Slipping But Still Positive

US Dollar Forecast – Dollar Forces EURUSD Break of Least Resistance, Other Crosses Loaded

Euro Forecast – Reversal, Price Pattern Point to Selling

Reversal, Price Pattern Point to Selling

Posted: 02 Mar 2019 08:32 PM PST

EURUSD Technical Highlights:

Euro daily key-reversal, 4-hr pattern suggest weakness
Expectations remain low for price movement, but that will change

Check out the Euro Q1 Forecast to see our analysts' intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook.

Euro daily key-reversal, 4-hr pattern suggest weakness

On Thursday, EURUSD abruptly reversed, creating a key-reversal on the daily chart very near trend-line resistance. Furthering along the reversal was the break of the rising wedge pattern off the February low. The combination of daily and 4-hr signaling gives shorts a compelling case.

Next week should bring some downside follow-through with the low at 12234 initially targeted, followed by just beneath there the November low at 11216. In the event we see a rally above the Thursday high the picture won't turn positive yet despite negating the reversal bar and bearish wedge break. Trend-line resistance will still need to be cleared, and even if that happens low volatility has made extended moves in either direction unsustainable.

Traders are relatively flat EURUSD, see the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning can act as a signal for price direction.

EURUSD Daily Chart (Key-reversal)

EURUSD 4-hr Chart (Wedge-break)

Expectations remain low for price movement, but that will change

Volatility continues to be low and expectations for out-sized moves in the near-term remains tempered. There is reason to be optimistic, though, that volatility is on its way. The 6-month range in the Euro is at a historical extreme, with only a few prior periods matching similarly tight trading conditions as to what we are seeing now. These periods of low volatility don't last forever and are followed by big shifts.

However, while a sizable uptick in volatility is anticipated, it's a macro-view, and as such the timing of when conditions will change is yet unclear – it could begin next week, it might not start for several months. With that in mind, we must continue to take the market at face value for what it is today but recognize that at some point outsized volatility will bring with it a better trading environment.