Forex News 24

Forex News 24


Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and Nikkei 225 Fundamental Forecast

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 09:20 AM PDT

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Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and Nikkei 225 Fundamental Forecast Talking Points:

  • Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook will likely dictate earnings season sentiment for the S&P 500
  • The Dow Jones will look to Caterpillar and Boeing, due to report after Wednesday's close
  • Interested in stock market sentiment? See how IG Clients are positioned on the S&P 500 with Retail Sentiment Data and sign up for one of our Sentiment Walkthrough Webinars to learn more about the tool

Dow Jones, S&P 500, DAX 30 and Nikkei 225 Fundamental Forecast

After a week of minimal movement, volume and volatility may increase for the major US indices as key earnings from some of the country's largest corporations are released and first quarter GDP is revealed. That said, the Dow Jones may have its hands full in the week ahead as Boeing is scheduled to report their first quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Dow Jones Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

The plane-maker has singlehandedly dragged the Average lower in recent weeks amid ongoing issues with their 737 Max models. This week's earnings will be the first time the company has reported since a second deadly crash of a 737 Max 8. Investors will be keen to gauge the company's outlook as it balances order cancellations, litigation and finding a resolution to the problem. Responsible for more than 10% of the Dow Jones price, a bleak outlook from Boeing would undoubtedly drag on the index. Follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for earnings season coverage.

View our Economic Calendar for live data releases and event times in the week ahead.

Alongside Boeing, Caterpillar will also report earnings on Wednesday before market open. The heavy equipment manufacturer is also a notable portion of the Industrial Average and often seen as a bellwether for global growth. In that same vein, the company will look to US GDP to dictate price action.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (February – April) (Chart 1)

Dow Jones price chart

Learn the differences between the Dow Jones and S&P 500 and how they might contribute to different outlooks.

S&P 500 Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

After numerous GDP forecasts were revised upward last week, market participants will finally be able to compare expectations to reality with Thursday's GDP release. A strong reading – on the back of stronger than expected Chinese GDP last week – would make meaningful strides in calming global growth fears, while a miss could seriously ding sentiment. Although the data may take center stage next week, earning reports from some of the country's largest tech stocks will likely spur price action prior to Thursday.

S&P 500 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (February – April) (Chart 2)

S&P 500 price chart

DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast: Bullish

By comparison, the German DAX has a relatively calm week ahead of it. Eurozone consumer confidence released on Tuesday is unlikely to spur immediate price action. Similarly, German IFO readings on Wednesday will offer a deeper look into the German economy – but usually lack the price influence of hard data. Outside of data, the index will continue to track the potential escalation of a US-EU trade war.

DAX 30 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (March – April) (Chart 3)

DAX 30 price chart

Nikkei 225 Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

In contrast to the DAX, the Japanese Nikkei 225 will have to weather important event risk in the week ahead. Although the Bank of Japan is decidedly set in its monetary policy ways, a report from Bloomberg last week suggests that the central bank may trim its growth forecasts in Thursday's Outlook Report. While the subsequent impact on inflation expectations is uncertain, a lower GDP forecast is likely to weigh on equity strength – none more so than the Nikkei 225. View our Economic Calendar for live data releases and event times in the week ahead.

Nikkei 225 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – April) (Chart 4)

Nikkei 225 price chart

Other weekly fundamental forecasts:

Gold: Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Outlook Soft Even as Brexit Comes Back in Focus, US GDP on Friday

Euro: Euro Fundamental Outlook: EURUSD Crumbles on Euro-Zone Growth Fears

USD: US Dollar May Rise on Haven Flows as Markets Turn Defensive

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: History Suggests the Stock Market Will Climb in the Weeks After Easter

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.





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S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 09:13 AM PDT

Hits: 2


S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100 Analysis and News

  • S&P 500 | Trend Remains Intact, Despite Bearish Signals
  • DAX | Eyes on Key Trendline From Record Peak
  • FTSE 100 | Weekly Close Above Trendline Keeps Uptrend Going

Looking for a fundamental perspective on Equities? Check out the Weekly Equities Fundamental Forecast.

Index

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX

S&P 500 | Trend Remains Intact, Despite Bearish Signals

Gains in the S&P 500 began to ease following a test of 2920 with investors potential booking profits ahead of the Easter holiday. Despite the index trading back below 2900, questions remain whether the failure to break 2920 marks a reversal in the index, while short term indicators also continue to suggest a pullback is due. However, with volatility continuing to drop across multiple assets, trend following remains intact for now, thus keeping a move towards records highs within sight.

S&P 500

DAX | Eyes on Key Trendline From Record Peak

The upward momentum has continued for the DAX, which saw another strong week with the index breaking above the rising channel. Consequently, the index is now eying crucial resistance stemming the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which also coincides with the descending trendline from the Jan 2018 record high. With the index also hovering in overbought territory, profit taking may ensue on a test of 12300.

DAX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (Dec 2017 – Apr 2019)

DAX

FTSE | Weekly Close Above Trendline Keeps Uptrend Going

This week saw somewhat sedate price action in the FTSE 100, eeking out marginal gains of 0.3%. However, with the index continuing to trade within the rising channel and making a weekly close above the descending trendline from the record high, the outlook remains modestly bullish for the FTSE 100. As such, this increases the likelihood of a test of topside resistance situated at 7500. On the downside, support is seen at 7420 before the 7390-7400 area.

FTSE

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Crude Oil Forecast: 50% Off the Lows � Can Bulls Continue Rally

British Pound Forecast: GBPUSD, EURGBP & GBPNZD

US Dollar Forecast: Big Test of Resistance Nearing

Gold Forecast: XAU at Support, Fresh 2019 Lows

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast





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EURUSD Crumbles on Euro-Zone Growth Fears

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 06:37 AM PDT

Hits: 5


Euro (EUR) Talking Points:

  • EURUSD back below 1.1300 and this time it may be there for some time.
  • German finance ministry slashes 2019 GDP to just 0.5% from 1.0%.

The DailyFX Q2 EUR Forecast is available to download including our short- and medium-term look at the Euro.

Fundamental Forecast for EUR: Bearish

The single-currency is seemingly friendless against a raft of other currencies and looks set to move lower, shifting my forecast to bearish from neutral despite the current lowly levels. Not only are fundamentals looking negative, the EURUSD chart looks weak in the short- to medium-term with little in the way of support seen.

This week's Euro-Zone data prints have been fairly neutral, but all remain at lowly levels with no encouraging signs seen in the releases. German manufacturing continues to sit at multi-year lows with the EZ's economic export engine still suffering from the diesel emissions scandal, a growth slowdown in China, heightened US-EU trade fears and Brexit. This week the German finance ministry confirmed market rumors that the country's 2019 growth would be a mere 0.5%, down from earlier tepid, expectations of 1% and sharply lower than the 2.1% predicted one year ago. Economic sentiment remains weak, and Germany now needs to work out how to boost growth via government investment and increased public consumption to make up for export-related losses. It is highly unlikely that the ECB will, or can, loosen monetary policy further as even lower – more negative – interest rates will rile German savers and put the Euro-Zone banking sector under further strain.

There could be worse to come. If US President Trump continues to look at additional tariffs on Euro-Zone exports, the EU will retaliate, leaving it in a no-win situation, while a No Deal Brexit – highly unlikely – would leave the single-block at risk of further taxes and tariffs. In 2017, the UK exported goods to the value of £274 billion to the EU while trade the other way saw the EU export £341 billion of goods to the UK, a £67 billion difference that in a No Deal Brexit would be under threat.

Next week's economic calendar is thin with just German IFO readings on Tuesday and retail sales at the end of the week. The week's highlight will likely be the ECB Economic Bulletin on Wednesday which should provide more analysis of economic and monetary developments in the single-zone.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

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EURUSD currently trades around 1.1250 and nears old horizontal support at 1.1216. A break below exposes 1.1176 the recent 22-month low. Lower highs continue to dominate the chart and the pair trade below all three moving averages.

Looking for a technical perspective on the EUR Dollar? Check out the Weekly EUR Technical Forecast.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart – April 18, 2019

eurusd

IG Client Sentiment data show 59.7% of traders are net-long EURUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests that EURUSD prices may fall further.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatilityTraits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

— Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Australian Forecast: Australian Dollar Faces The Big One As Official CPI Numbers Loom

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Oil Prices Stalling Ahead of US Energy Earnings and GDP Data



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EURUSD Counts Down to a Break but Euro Itself a Short-Term Bear Swing

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 06:31 AM PDT

Hits: 9


Euro Technicals Talking Points:

Technical Forecast for the Euro: Bearish

There are two ways to view the Euro lately. One perspective is that offered by EURUSD which has worked its way into an ever-dwindling range that is raising speculative of a medium-term, significant break while simultaneously encouraging short-term speculative traders to trade the pair aggressively. Yet, a look to the Euro independent of the Dollar, presents a very different picture. From most of its crosses, we find the shared currency has extended a multi-week rally. It isn't a move that could readily qualify as a self-sustaining trend, but it nevertheless draws unmistakable contrast to the world's most liquid currency pair. If you intend to trade the Euro moving forward, EURUSD should be considered given its weight; but rely on the other liquid Euro-crosses and even an equally weighted measure of the currency for your gauge of critical inflection/acceleration points as well as general intent.

From the standard, daily chart of EURUSD below, we find the epitome of range-bound trading activity. The trend of lower swing highs dating back 10 months now establishes the most provocative resistance around 1.1355. That being said, the series of highs rejecting bulls at around 1.1325 is more immediate upside restraint while the 200-day moving average and mid-point to the 2016-2018 bull wave fall neatly around 1.1450. This is not a very broad zone of resistance which is consistent with an extended period of congestion. Support is more singular. While the November, March and April lows differ by as much as 40 points, they generally fall in line with the 61.8% Fib of the aforementioned 'phase' as well as the 61.8% Fib of the historical range of the exchange rate going back to the Euro's trade inception 20 years ago. Watch 1.1200 very closely.

Chart of EURUSD and 200-day Moving Average (Daily)

EURUSD

As EURUSD continues to bounce between its converging boundaries, the expectations for a breakout (which is non-directional, but many confuse with a 'break up') naturally grow. Yet, recognition of the congestion does not equate to any extreme timeline resolution. Consider below a monthly chart of the same pair with an 8-month historical range that reflects only one period of quiet more extreme than what we have recently experienced – the Summer of 2014. While this signals the same inevitability of a significant return to trend, it is just as important to consider the time scale of the transition. This is a monthly chart and we have yet to see the sparks that would signal even the early vestiges of a break.

Chart of EURUSD and 8-Month Historical Range as Percentage of Spot (Monthly)

EURUSD

While the Euro itself is not as constricted as the EURUSD insinuates, it is still generally limited as to its trend development. Below, we have an equally weighted index made out of the seven most liquid Euro crosses. While the explicit technical levels do not translate readily to any individual pairs, the fact that the 1.3000 level seen in this chart held to multiple and spaced out tests back to August 2017 indicates a fairly consistent refrain from the currency. Through the end of March, bearish progress started to catch a little traction for a 'break'; yet the markets were not ready to run with the move. These past three weeks offered a recovery that is now falling into a more reserved three-month span top. While it doesn't offer any great insight for the likes of EURUSD, the general restraint could carry serious weight for the likes of EURGBP or EURCHF.

Chart of an Equally-Weighted Euro Index and 20-Day ATR (Daily)

Euro Index

A pair that offers a more recognizable picture relative to the equally-weighted index is EURGBP. The past few weeks have seen a measured advance that has found a general resistance waiting to slow its progress to a halt around 0.8675. We left this past week holding that boundary and an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is still in place with this most recent jog higher. Under more active conditions, this would look like a loaded formation, but given the Euro's stretch and the Sterling's constant lack of traction, range is even more the path of least resistance.

Chart of EURGBP and 100-day Moving Average (Daily)

EURGBP & Moving Average

Already putting in a signal supportive of range, we have EURJPY which posted its biggest daily drop in a month on Friday to retreat from a fairly dense collection of resistance. The series of lower highs back to October now happens to coincide with the 38.2% Fib of the September to January bear wave (excluding the flash crash wick on January 3rd) and the 38.2% Fib of the upswing from the June 2016 low to last year's February high all at 126.75. Range support is more of the 'zone' variety down around 124 to 123.50.

Chart of EURJPY (Daily)

EURJPY

In contrast to the hold of EURGBP and the tentative turn of EURJPY, EURCHF looks like it has achieved breakout velocity in favor of the more liquid currency in the pairing. Having broken through the 200-day moving average and the trendline pulled from descending swing highs back to August falling around 1.1350, it would seem that the threshold is crossed and the sky open to momentum. As impressive as this momentum has been – the strongest run over 15 trading days since August 2017 – it is still fighting the lackluster picture behind the Euro. The Franc has dropped across the board, but it is less likely to be the singular major that can develop a clear trend while the rest of the FX market struggles.

Chart of EURCHF and 200-day Moving Average (Daily)

EURCHF

If you are very convinced of the impending breakout and return to trend, it is worth consulting with implied (expected) volatility. The CME's Euro Volatility Index below has shown a dramatic collapse spurred on by the short-term relief of certain key fundamental risks and heading into the long, holiday weekend. Given the historical congestion and the known liquidity drain of the holiday, it is reasonable to project a deflated chance of a charge for the Euro or EURUSD. However, much as the congestion is overdone, so too is the slide in volatility. I would treat this as a contrarian signal, but remember the time frames that we are approaching this picture from. While a break and more significant price swings are inevitable, it could still take weeks to realize.

Chart of EURUSD and CME's Euro Volatility Index (Daily)

EURUSD

As we await the market's next significant movement, it is worth considering how market participants are positioned behind the Euro. Larger speculative interests measured through futures by the Commitment of Traders report has the net short interest continuing to build through last week and sitting at levels comparable to the end of 2016 (when the pair was forming its bottom). In contrast, the more mobile retail traders are more than happy to continue trading surprisingly reliable range in EURUSD. Eventually, this group will call for another turn when the break finally does arrive, but they are well suited to the conditions that we continue to trace out.

Chart of Net Speculative Positioning in EURUSD Futures from CFTC Report (Weekly)

Speculative Positioning

Chart of Retail Trader Positioning from IG Clients (Daily)

EURUSD Client Positioning

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Crude Oil Forecast: 50% Off the Lows – Can Bulls Continue Rally

British Pound Forecast: GBPUSD, EURGBP & GBPNZD

US Dollar Forecast: Big Test of Resistance Nearing

Gold Forecast: XAU at Support, Fresh 2019 Lows

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD and EUR/AUD May Be at Turning Points, Facing Trend Lines

2019-04-21 13:00:00

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Outlook Soft Even as Brexit Comes Back in Focus, US GDP on Friday

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 03:10 AM PDT

Hits: 20


gold price forecast, gold fundamental forecast, gold price chart, gold chart, gold price

Fundamental Forecast for the Gold: Neutral

Gold prices turned lower mid-week as a reinvigorated US Dollar sapped demand for bullion; the combination of strong US equities and a strong US Dollar has been historically negative for Gold prices.

– Brexit headlines will reappear now that UK parliament returns to session after its Easter-week holiday on April 23.

– The IG Client Sentiment Index shows that retail net-longs increased despite Gold prices falling to a fresh 2019 low.

See our long-term forecasts for Gold and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Gold Price Week in Review

Gold prices continued their tumble in what has been a rough April, with fresh 2019 lows hit in several crosses. Gold in USD-terms (XAUUSD) dropped by -1.17% during the holiday shortened week, falling as low as 1271.07, its lowest level since December 27.

With risk appetite bolstered as US stocks maintained their gains, Gold prices were also hit versus the higher yielding, higher beta: in AUD-terms (XAUAUD) and CAD-terms (XAUCAD), Gold prices fell by -0.79% and -0.71%, respectively.

That other crosses like Gold in EUR-terms (XAUEUR) or in GBP-terms (XAUGBP) couldn't reach new 2019 lows speak to the underlying weakness facing those currencies at present time.

Brexit News to Come Back to the Headlines

The past week offered a much-needed reprieve from the daily ebb-and-flow of Brexit headlines; a lack of progress in UK parliament warranted a break in public discussions. But Brexit headlines will reappear now that UK parliament returns to session after its Easter-week holiday on April 23. The coming week-plus could have significant influence on how the next several months unfold.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May and Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn have been engaged in cross-party talks to find common ground for the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement to pass through UK parliament. Early indications from both Labour and Tory party officials suggest that the talks will result in very little.

If nothing is agreed upon, it's possible that UK PM May resigns or faces a no-confidence vote from Labour in May (see the full report regarding the near-term Brexit timeline: Next Brexit Steps to Prove Pivotal for EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD Prices). The fact is, a return of Brexit concerns to the newswire could prove to something that helps keep Gold prices afloat once more.

Pick Your Trade War Influence

The US-China trade war talks continue to point towards de-escalation and ultimately a Trump-Xi summit at some point over the coming weeks. Commentary from officials on both sides of the Pacific indicate that a trade agreement could be struck as soon as early-May, with a meeting between the American and Chinese presidents some time in late-May. As has been the case, signs of progress and a relaxation of tensions have been a negative influence on Gold prices.

But as one trade war is seemingly subsiding (thanks in part to the US willing to overlook enforcement mechanisms and some of the longstanding intellectual property disputes), the US is seemingly ready to engage on another front: the EU. After the WTO ruled that the EU's subsidies to Airbus (a French company) ran afoul of trade rules, the Trump administration outlined fresh tariffs against the world's largest economic block. A new tit-for-tat war is emerging, and if so, a potential positive influence on Gold prices.

Top FX Events in Week Ahead

The upcoming economic calendar is sparsely populated with significant economic data, relegating traders to the newswire for event risk for Gold prices. Like the data seen over the course of the past week, upcoming inflation data should give central banks little reason to act one way or another. Neither the upcoming Bank of Canada nor the Bank of Japan will signal policy moves anytime soon. If anything, the late-week initial Q1'19 US GDP report should show that early-year US recession fears were overblown, limiting the scope for immediate dovish policy action by the Federal Reserve – and therefore, representing a late-week risk to Gold prices.

Read the full report, FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Australia Inflation; BOC Meeting; US GDP and More.

Gold Futures Positioning Holding Net-Long

Finally, looking at positioning, according to the CFTC's COT for the week ended April 16, speculators sharply reduced their net-long Gold positions to 56.3K contracts, down from the 105.4K net-long contracts held in the week prior. Net-long Gold positioning is now at its lowest level since the week of December 4, 2018.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX


2019-04-21 10:00:00

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XAU at Support, Fresh 2019 Lows

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 03:03 AM PDT

Hits: 7


Gold prices have plummeted more than 5.5% off the 2019 highs with the precious metal probing fresh yearly lows to trade at 1274 ahead of the New York close on Thursday. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Weekly Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that a weekly doji formation off the monthly highs left the risk, "weighted to the downside while below 1302," with near-term support eyed, "at 1275/76 – "where the objective yearly opening-range low converges on the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 advance and former pitchfork resistance." XAU/USD is testing this threshold now with a weekly close below needed to keep the short-bias viable heading into next week.

A downside break targets broader bullish invalidation at ~1253/58– a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly highs and the 50% retracement of the 2018 advance (area of interest for possible exhaustion IF reached). Monthly open resistance stands at 1292 with a breach above the 2019 high-week close at 1327 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.

For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Gold is trading into confluence support here on the back of a five-day decline. While a break of the monthly opening-range lows does keep the focus lower into the close of April, price is now testing the yearly lows and a weekly close below former pitchfork resistance is needed to keep the short-bias in play. From at trading standpoint, a good place to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – be on the lookout for near-term exhaustion / recovery. Review my latest Gold Price Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term trading levels.

Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Sentiment

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold – the ratio stands at +2.88 (74.2% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are2.3% higher than yesterday and 9.5% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday and 6.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Goldprices (XAU/USD) may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Crude Oil Forecast: 50% Off the Lows � Can Bulls Continue Rally

British Pound Forecast: GBPUSD, EURGBP & GBPNZD

US Dollar Forecast: Big Test of Resistance Nearing

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD and EUR/AUD May Be at Turning Points, Facing Trend Lines





Source link

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10. WiFi Routers review|

Forex Online Trading? Parabolic SAR As a Trading Tool

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 01:01 AM PDT

Hits: 8

The interest in trading Forex online has become popular in recent years. At the online trading platforms are a lot of free advanced trading tools that is useful in analyzing the market. It can be difficult to decide which trading tool that is best in the present market situation. Some of the tools are useful in a trending market where the prices are going up and down. Others are useful in a fading market where the prices rise to an extreme high level or reverse to an extremely low and then return to a realistic level.

One way to find the right trading tool is to consider the market situation. Is the market fading or trendy? It is also important to test which tools that generate the most profit and is comfortable as a trading tool for the trader. A test could be 20 trades with the simple moving average as a primary indicator and the stochastic oscillator as a secondary indicator. Another test could be the Bolling Bands as a primary indicator and the stochastic oscillator as a secondary indicator. It is advisable to test different trading tools during the year to improve trading skills and profit margin.

One of the trading tools the platforms offer is the Parabolic SAR tool. SAR stands for stop and reverse. It is a tool that is useful in a trending market. A trending market occurs in approximately 30 percent of the trading time. The Parabolic SAR helps the trader identifying when to buy and sell. It also helps the trader identifying the trend direction in the market.

The Parabolic SAR consists of a line that is above the price line when the market is bearish and below the price line when the market is bullish. A bullish market is a market where the prices are moving forward and a bearish market is a market where the prices are moving downward.

As SAR stands for stop and reverse it is easy to use the Parabolic SAR as a stop-loss order. When the line stop the market trend reverse. In other word if the market is bearish and the line stops it is an indication to buy and if the market is bullish and the line stops it is an indication to sell.

A test could be 20 trades with the simple moving average as a primary indicator and Parabolic SAR and the stochastic oscillator as a secondary indicator.

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US Dollar May Rise on Haven Flows as Markets Turn Defensive

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 12:17 AM PDT

Hits: 8


US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

  • US Dollar may be buoyed by haven flows on exodus from risky assets
  • First-quarter US GDP, external data flow might inspire risk aversion
  • Dour tone in corporate earnings reports to reinforce defensive mood

Check out the latest US Dollar forecast and see what is expected to drive prices through mid-year!

The US Dollar looks likely to cement its position as a vehicle for safety-seeking capital flows in the week ahead. Mounting evidence of a downturn in domestic economic activity is likely to keep Fed policy locked in wait-and-see mode even as it sours risk appetite and stokes haven demand.

PMI surveys published Thursday put the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth at the weakest since September 2016. Next week's GDP data is expected to confirm a slowdown in the first quarter. A print at 2 percent is expected but realized results may undershoot if the tenor of recent outcomes is sustained.

Meanwhile, external news-flow offers ample fodder for global slowdown speculation. The Bank of Canada will probably use the occasion of a policy announcement to worry aloud about downside risks. Incoming comments from UK Chancellor Hammond and SNB President Jordan may offer a similar message.

Turning to the data front, Germany's IFO survey of business confidence and New Zealand trade statistics might add to the downbeat mood. Both countries are prodigious exporters and the drop in trade volumes starting around mid-2018 shows no signs of a meaningful recovery.

The first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season will continue to in tandem. Over a third of the companies making up the bellwether S&P 500 equity index are due to show results. Data from Bloomberg based on those outcomes recorded thus far points to the first period of contraction in three years.

Taken together, this seems likely to put markets in a defensive posture, with each consecutive reminder about the shaky macroeconomic backdrop helping to inspire de-risking. That might put a premium on the Greenback's unrivaled liquidity, pushing it broadly higher.

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Faces The Big One As Official CPI Numbers Loom

Crude Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Prices Stalling Ahead of US Energy Earnings and GDP Data

British Pound Forecast – Will Sterling Stabilize with Brexit Risk in the Distance?





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01. Espresso Machines review|
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Big Test of Resistance Nearing

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 12:15 AM PDT

Hits: 6


US Dollar Technical Highlights:

  • Top of wedge in for a test
  • Watch how market responds at resistance

Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page for intermediate-term forecasts, educational content aimed all experience levels, and more!

Top of USD wedge in for a test

The US Dollar Index (DXY) finally broke free a little on Thursday, if you can call it that with volatility so low, pushing on towards the top of the longer-term wedge formation. Now, with the prospect of a move into the 9770 area, can buyers drive it through or will we see another turn back down?

The current lackluster environment suggests more of the same lies ahead, that is a failure at resistance and for the broad ascending wedge pattern to continue the maturation process in the weeks ahead. A turnabout near resistance will again spin the near-term trading bias to the downside as more tightening in the range unfolds.

If, however, a clean breakout can sustain itself above the resistance in place since November, then we could be in for a material move higher as the DXY finds itself trading in open space. Where it could rise to is difficult to say just yet, but given the overall length of time price has stayed constrained it could be substantial.

The days ahead could hold an important pass or fail proposition. If a failure develops and the short-term bias turns negative again it will mean more of the same and possibly further tightening of trading conditions. And while this may indeed be so, pulling back to the big picture this may turn out to be the best scenario as the wedge formation gathers more power through a continued coiling of price action…

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning in major markets could signal the next price move.

DXY Daily Chart (Top of wedge coming into play…)

DXY

Helpful Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Crude Oil Forecast: 50% Off the Lows ? Can Bulls Continue Rally

British Pound Forecast: GBPUSD, EURGBP & GBPNZD

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD and EUR/AUD May Be at Turning Points, Facing Trend Lines





Source link

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01. Espresso Machines review|
02. Gaming Keyboards review|
03. Gaming Headsets review|
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07. Gaming Mouse review|
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US Dollar May Rise on Haven Flows as Markets Turn Defensive

Posted: 21 Apr 2019 12:08 AM PDT

Hits: 3


US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

  • US Dollar may be buoyed by haven flows on exodus from risky assets
  • First-quarter US GDP, external data flow might inspire risk aversion
  • Dour tone in corporate earnings reports to reinforce defensive mood

Check out the latest US Dollar forecast and see what is expected to drive prices through mid-year!

The US Dollar looks likely to cement its position as a vehicle for safety-seeking capital flows in the week ahead. Mounting evidence of a downturn in domestic economic activity is likely to keep Fed policy locked in wait-and-see mode even as it sours risk appetite and stokes haven demand.

PMI surveys published Thursday put the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth at the weakest since September 2016. Next week's GDP data is expected to confirm a slowdown in the first quarter. A print at 2 percent is expected but realized results may undershoot if the tenor of recent outcomes is sustained.

Meanwhile, external news-flow offers ample fodder for global slowdown speculation. The Bank of Canada will probably use the occasion of a policy announcement to worry aloud about downside risks. Incoming comments from UK Chancellor Hammond and SNB President Jordan may offer a similar message.

Turning to the data front, Germany's IFO survey of business confidence and New Zealand trade statistics might add to the downbeat mood. Both countries are prodigious exporters and the drop in trade volumes starting around mid-2018 shows no signs of a meaningful recovery.

The first-quarter corporate earnings reporting season will continue to in tandem. Over a third of the companies making up the bellwether S&P 500 equity index are due to show results. Data from Bloomberg based on those outcomes recorded thus far points to the first period of contraction in three years.

Taken together, this seems likely to put markets in a defensive posture, with each consecutive reminder about the shaky macroeconomic backdrop helping to inspire de-risking. That might put a premium on the Greenback's unrivaled liquidity, pushing it broadly higher.

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

OTHER FUNDAMENTAL FORECASTS:

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Faces The Big One As Official CPI Numbers Loom

Crude Oil Forecast – Crude Oil Prices Stalling Ahead of US Energy Earnings and GDP Data

British Pound Forecast – Will Sterling Stabilize with Brexit Risk in the Distance?


2019-04-21 07:00:00

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Top 10 problems you may need in life:

01. Espresso Machines review|
02. Gaming Keyboards review|
03. Gaming Headsets review|
04. Virtual Reality Headsets review|
05. Cordless Drills review|
06. Electric Keyboards review|
07. Gaming Mouse review|
08. Gaming Monitors review|
09. Gaming Laptops review|
10. WiFi Routers review|

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