Forex News 24

Forex News 24


Starbucks Earnings: SBUX Stock Gained on Q2 EPS Beat Starbucks Earnings: SBUX Stock Gained on Q2 EPS Beat

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 02:04 PM PDT

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Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) reported its latest quarterly earnings results late on Thursday, amassing earnings that surpassed expectations, while revenue came in slightly below the mark, yet SBUX still increased after hours.

Starbucks Earnings

Source: Shutterstock

The coffee chain said that for its second quarter of its fiscal 2019, it brought in net income of $663.2 million, or 53 cents per share, slightly surpassing its year-ago profit of $660.1 million, or 47 cents per share. On an adjusted basis, earnings tallied up to 60 cents per share, roughly 4 cents greater than analysts predicted, per a Refinitiv survey.

Starbucks added that its revenue for the period came in at $6.31 billion, slightly below the $6.32 billion that analysts predicted, while also surging 5% year-over-year. The business added that its same-store sales increased 3% ahead of the Wall Street guidance of a 2.9% growth.

The company said its same-store sales performance was aided by a 3% gain in average ticket. In the U.S., Starbucks' sales at stores open by at least a year grew by 4%, while same-store sales growth in China was of 3% year-over-year.

"We are especially pleased with our comparable store sales growth in our two lead markets, the U.S. and China, where we are also continuing to drive strong new store development with industry-leading returns," CEO Kevin Johnson said in a statement.

The business also increased its forecast for its fiscal 2019, as it now sees its adjusted earnings in the range of $2.75 to $2.79 per share, higher than its previous range of $2.68 to $2.73 per share. Analysts were calling for Starbucks to bring in 2019 earnings of $2.71 per share.

SBUX stock is up about 1.2% after the bell Wednesday off the heels of a strong quarterly earnings performance. Shares had gained about 0.9% during regular trading hours today.

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Will US GDP Stoke Currency Volatility Across USD Forex Pairs Tomorrow?

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 01:44 PM PDT

Hits: 16


USD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS:

  • Overnight implied volatility metrics for major USD currency pairs leaps ahead of Friday's US GDP data release which may potentially stoke a sizable market reaction
  • The DXY US Dollar Index recently surged above technical resistance to its highest level since May 2017 and could suggest USD traders are expecting tomorrow's GDP numbers to beat estimates
  • Take a look at this article for information on How to Trade the Top 10 Most Volatile Currency Pairs or download the free DailyFX Q2 USD Forecastfor comprehensive fundamental and technical insight on the US Dollar over the second quarter

Forex traders are starting to see signs that currency volatility could be ticking higher, led by the latest surge in the US Dollar. In fact, recent USD gains has pushed the DXY US Dollar Index above key resistance at the 98.00 price level which is its highest reading in nearly 2 years.

DXY US DOLLAR INDEX 1-MONTH IMPLIED VOLATILITY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 24, 2018 TO APRIL 25, 2019)

DXY US Dollar Index Price Chart Implied 30-Day Volatility

Prior to the greenback's latest advance, forex market volatility was seemingly evaporating. But, price action looks to be picking up again judging by rising implied volatility which interestingly aligns with tomorrow's potentially market-moving economic data.

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITIES AND TRADING RANGES

Forex Market Implied Volatility and Trading Ranges USD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CHF, CAD, NZDCurrency Market Implied Volatility EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD

Performance in the major USD crosses tomorrow will largely depend on how closely actual Q1 US GDP is reported to consensus. Fed funds futures are currently pricing a 45 percent probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by its December 11 FOMC meeting.

If economic growth comes in above the 2.2 percent estimate, the odds that the Fed lowers its benchmark interest rate will likely drop which usually lifts the US Dollar. On the other hand, if GDP crosses the wires below forecast, markets could begin pricing in a higher likelihood that the Fed cuts rates this year.

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – USD

Forex Economic Calendar US Dollar Price Chart

Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets.

Currency pairs of interest highlights EURUSD, USDJPY and AUDUSD. Greenback gains could be limited against the Euro if GDP surprises to the upside considering recent EURUSD price action. On the other hand, there could be more room for the USD to run against the Aussie considering weak inflation out of Australia likely sets up the RBA for a rate cut.

Also, a US GDP beat would likely enhance risk appetite and send traders flocking out of anti-risk currencies like the Japanese Yen, especially given the BOJ's reiterated dovishness. That being said, JPY could see a boost from US GDP coming in below estimates, particularly if the report is bleak enough to reignite market pessimism and flight to 'safe-haven' securities.

TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

– Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

– Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter


2019-04-25 20:05:00

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3 Scenarios to Consider for the S&P 500 Ahead of US GDP

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 01:38 PM PDT

Hits: 13


S&P 500 Talking Points:

3 Scenarios to Consider for the S&P 500 Ahead of US GDP

On the heels of stellar earnings from Facebook and Microsoft, the S&P 500 saw a mixed trading day, briefly slipping into the red before climbing into positive territory ahead of the close. Volatility has been lacking in the recent melt up but the release of US GDP on Friday could buck that trend.

Check out our Second Quarter forecasts for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Gold and more.

While GDP estimates range from 1.4% to as high as 2.8%, Bloomberg's aggregate measure projects a 2.2% print tomorrow. As always, markets will judge the data in three ways – a hit, miss or beat. However, with the recent capitulation from the Federal Reserve and the subsequent rebound in US equities, a typically bullish print could be undone by the implications for the central bank's policy path.

US GDP Shatters Estimates

In the event that Friday's GDP release is above expectations, markets will likely look to the degree of outperformance. It could be argued anything above 2.5% – within the upper bound of projections – would significantly increase the chances of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve and consequently pressure the S&P 500.

While strong growth is indicative of a healthy economy, the Fed's outlook on interest rates has proven a more dominant concern in recent months as the S&P 500 has climbed alongside the falling chance of a rate hike at upcoming Fed meetings.

3 Scenarios to Consider for the S&P 500 Ahead of US GDP

US GDP Lands Near Expectations

With the Federal Reserve in mind, a Goldilocks data print may be the best-case scenario for the S&P 500. A release at the expected 2.2% or thereabouts, would likely offer support for the current monetary policy outlook. In turn, analysts may look to earnings and corporate forecasts to drive price but if the impact from trade wars and a partial government shutdown are discounted, a miss may be in store. A miss would further the recent trend in the Citi Economic Surprise Index which has seen US data consistently miss expectations in the latter half of the first quarter and April.

3 Scenarios to Consider for the S&P 500 Ahead of US GDP

US GDP Misses Substantially

Data considerably beneath market expectations could also see the initial reaction lack conviction as the greater implications on monetary policy are considered. The market already sees the odds of a rate cut at July's FOMC meeting above 60%, just two months after they were effectively zero. An abysmal growth figure could see these odds skyrocket – potentially spurring the S&P 500 higher. Looking at 30-day Fed Funds interest rate futures, the market is currently pricing the effective interest rate in December 2019 at 2.24%.

S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (August 2018 – April 2019)

S&P 500 price chart

S&P 500 overlaid with Fed Funds interest rate futures

For live webinar coverage of the release, join Analyst David Song at 12:15 GMT Friday. Outside of equities, explore potential trades in the US Dollar, Gold and more with analyst James Stanley's Price Action Setups video.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: History Suggests the Stock Market Will Climb in the Weeks After Easter

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.





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April 25, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 01:37 PM PDT

Hits: 0


analytics5cc1d48beed7c.jpg

On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair below the uptrend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11.

Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair demonstrated weak bullish momentum towards 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high above the previous top achieved on February 27.

Instead, the depicted recent bearish channel was established.

Significant bearish pressure was demonstrated towards 1.3150 – 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown.

On March 29, the price levels near 1.2980 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection.

This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection.

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish towards 1.2900, 1.2800 and 1.2750 where the lower limit of the depicted channel comes to meet the GBPUSD pair.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback towards 1.3045-1.3080 for a valid SELL entry.

TP levels to be located around 1.2950, 1.2905 and 1.2800 and S/L to be located above 1.3100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-04-25 15:42:11



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The Second Bitcoin Boom | InvestorPlace

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 01:27 PM PDT

Hits: 16


Bitcoin is back, baby! Or so say its advocates. Bitcoin can act as a proxy for crime, as the Mueller Report has described, as a measure of distrust in traditional "fiat" currencies like the dollar or as a measure of the general market's speculative fever.

The Second Bitcoin Boom

Source: Shutterstock

With U.S. stock markets trading near all-time highs, this looks like a fever.

Since the start of the year, the price of a Bitcoin is up roughly 46%, rising from under $3,800 to an April 25 price of about $5,521. (Crypto markets are electronic, open 24 hours per day.) Most of the positive action is centered on Bitcoin itself.

There's a reason for that.

Enforced Scarcity

Bitcoin was developed around a concept of enforced scarcity.

Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be mined. With the total available now at about 17.6 million, the value of mining is due to drop soon. There are also millions of Bitcoin that have simply disappeared, in wallets whose encryption keys have been lost.

This enforced scarcity means that renewed interest in Bitcoin quickly turns into profit. As the rate of transactions increase, it feeds on itself, until the bulls start screaming "it can only go up from here." 

Smart people can easily be caught in the fever. Softbank (OTCMKTS:SFTBY) CEO Masayoshi Son reportedly lost $130 million on Bitcoin recently, buying near the early 2018 high and selling near the low. Naturally, Son's losses have only encouraged the fever. Everyone thinks they're the smartest person in the room.

Bitcoin Still Useless

Bitcoin is still useless, in an economic sense. When the price starts rising, few try to argue that it's a real currency with a stable value that can stand in between, say, you and a pallet-load of Chinese toys being loaded at Shanghai that must be offloaded to your warehouse in Hoboken for the coming Christmas season.

When the price is rising, as it is now, no one even tries to make the argument that Bitcoin can stand in for dollars. Instead, it's all about "parabolic" growth, as in 2017. Buy, hold, get rich. Bitcoin is invisible gold.

This only works if you sell at the right time. But if the whole world is going to heck in a handbasket, what are you buying? When everything crashes but Bitcoin, what can you get into that retains your Bitcoin wealth?

Don't Talk, We're Trading

Bitcoin markets are still filled with crooks.

Two Nigerians are now on the run from a 13-count indictment lodged in Oregon over a $59,000 Bitcoin scam.  A crypto market called HitBTC has been accused of not performing trades as ordered.  This is a business where you can't even trust your broker.

You can't even trust Twitter.

The Twitter account @bitcoin stands accused of being an online shill pushing Bitcoin Cash, a different cryptocurrency. In a poll by Bitcoin developer Jimmy Song, 54% supported suspending the account for fraud.

A group supporting cryptocurrency based on freedom wants the online law to go after its critics.

The Bottom Line

The rubber hits the road here when fear replaces greed in the wider market.

Bitcoin bulls are claiming that when the stock market turns down, as it did as recently as December, people will start rushing back to Bitcoin, which will magically rise to $20,000 and beyond. The scarcity of Bitcoin is said to make this a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So, what happened last December? When tech stocks dropped 20%-25%, the price of a Bitcoin fell from just under $6,400 on Nov. 12 to less than $3,200 on December 15. The Bitcoin recovery began before that of the tech stocks, which bottomed on Dec. 24, but they were no safe-haven.

Imaginary money never is.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a mystery novella involving Bitcoin, The Reluctant Detective Saves the World, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned no shares in companies mentioned in this story. To follow the value of cryptocurrencies bookmark https://coinmarketcap.com/



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5 Best ETFs to Set and Forget

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 12:51 PM PDT

Hits: 6


While use of ETFs among institutional and other professional investors continues growing at a rapid rate, retail investors and advisors representing those investors remain core constituencies among ETF users.

As has been widely noted, retail investors are often drawn to ETFs due to the asset class's low fees. The best ETFs are not always the cheapest in terms of sheer performance, but for investors with long time horizons looking to build their own portfolios, many of the best ETFs to consider are those funds that can be considered cheap. Data confirm that low fees make a difference for long-term investors.

"Imagine you have $100,000 invested. If the account earned 6% a year for the next 25 years and had no costs or fees, you'd end up with about $430,000," according to Vanguard. "If, on the other hand, you paid 2% a year in costs, after 25 years you'd only have about $260,000."

Of course, there are a variety of tactical and thematic funds for investors to consider, many with compelling alpha-seeking capabilities, but for investors looking for set-it-and-forget core type investments, the following are some of the best ETFs to evaluate.

JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Equity ETF (BBUS)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense ratio: 0.02% per year, or $2 on a $10,000 investment.

Prior to the recent debuts of a pair of no-fee ETFs, the JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Equity ETF (CBOE:BBUS) briefly held the title of cheapest ETF in the U.S. Naysayers will note that entering BBUS in the best ETFs conversation is tricky at this point because the fund is barely more than a month old, but age with ETFs is just a number.

For investors looking to check the boxes of low fees and broad domestic equity market exposure, BBUS is one of the best ETFs, regardless of its rookie status. Home to 622 stocks, BBUS provides exposure to 85% of the U.S. equity market. In just six weeks on the market, BBUS has amassed $31.66 million in assets, marking one of the more impressive starts among 2019's crop of new ETFs.

With a larger roster than the S&P 500, BBUS could prove to be one of the best ETFs to replace S&P 500 tracking funds and, at least for the time being, the new JPMorgan ETF is cheap than any of the S&P 500 index funds available to retail investors. Still, long-term investors should expect BBUS to perform mostly inline with other broad market funds over time. The advantage will come from this fund's lower fee.

WisdomTree U.S. MidCap Dividend Fund (DON)

mid-cap stocks

Source: Shutterstock

Expense ratio: 0.38%

Yes, there are definitely mid-cap funds with lower fees than the 0.38% charged by the WisdomTree U.S. MidCap Dividend Fund (NYSEARCA:DON), but few mid-cap funds can match DON's status as one of the best ETFs for this market segment.

Many investors that are building set-it-and-forget-it portfolio focus too heavily on domestic large caps, usually at the expense of mid-cap stocks. Historical data confirm that is a bad move because mid caps display better long-term returns than large caps and, in many cases, mid caps also beat small-cap stocks and do so with less volatility.

DON is one of the best ETFs or mutual funds in the mid-cap space because since its inception nearly 13 years ago, the WisdomTree fund has beaten more than 90% of competing strategies, often by healthy margins.

DON is also one of the best ETFs for long-term investors because the fund pays a monthly dividend and dividend-paying stocks are usually less volatile than their non-dividend counterparts.

iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF (USMV)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense ratio: 0.15%

Low volatility funds are among the best ETFs for investors to consider when building portfolios for the long-term and the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF (CBOE:USMV) is one of the leaders of that pack. Before embracing low volatility ETFs, investors should note that the primary objective of these funds is to provide less downside capture when stocks decline, not capture all of the market's upside when stocks rally.

"Minimum Volatility strategies aim to create a holistic portfolio with lower risk than the market," said BlackRock in a recent note. "The factor has historically delivered lower downside capture, but lower upside potential as well, making it more appropriate for investors seeking to reduce risk while still maintaining potential for returns similar to the broader market."

From January 2015 through February 2019, minimum volatility's upside capture was just over 82%, but its downside capture for less than 59%, according to BlackRock data.

The $25 billion USMV holds 213 stocks, a combined 30.76% of which hail from the technology and healthcare sectors.

Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (SCHA)

Small-cap stocks to buy

Source: Shutterstock

Expense ratio: 0.04%

While small-cap stocks are more volatile than large-cap competitors, small caps are integral ingredients in long-term portfolios. Consider this: since the start of the current bull market in March 2009, the S&P SmallCap 600 Index is up nearly 471% compared to 400% for the large-cap S&P 500.

For cost-conscious investors, the Schwab US Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHA) is one of the best ETFs to consider in the small-cap space. The $7.9 billion SCHA tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Small-Cap Total Stock Market Index and holds nearly 1,740 stocks, making it one of the best ETFs among small-cap funds in terms of roster size and diversity.

SCHA has another perk that makes it one of the best ETFs for frugal investors: Schwab clients can trade the fund commission-free. This small-cap ETF allocates over half its combined weight to the financial services, technology and industrial sectors.

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)

Source: Shutterstock

Expense ratio: 0.05%

Portfolio construction for the long term needs to include diversification, meaning bond funds are among the best ETFs investors to consider. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:BND) is one of the best ETFs for investors for size and cost synergies in a bond fund because BND is one of the largest and cheapest bond ETFs in the U.S.

BND is an aggregate bond fund, meaning it is one of the best ETFs for investors looking for exposure to a deep bench of fixed income assets. The fund holds 8,463 bonds with an average duration of six years and an average effective maturity of 8.20 years. The bulk of BND's holdings are U.S. government and agency debt, meaning credit risk is not an issue with this bond fund.

With a yield of 2.77% and minimal credit risk, BND can be one of the best ETFs for conservative investors looking for reliable income.

Todd Shriber does not own any of the aforementioned securities.

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US Dollar Price Action Setups After 2019 Highs: Gold Price, EUR/USD

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 12:30 PM PDT

Hits: 12


US Dollar, Gold, EUR/USD Talking Points:

– If you're looking to improve your trading approach, our Traits of Successful Traders research could help. This is based on research derived from actual results from real traders, and this is available to any trader completely free-of-charge.

– If you're looking for a primer on the FX market, we can help. To get a ground-up explanation behind the Forex market, please click here to access our New to FX Trading Guide.

If you'd like to sign up for our webinars, we host an event on Tuesday and Thursday, each of which can be accessed from the below links:

Tuesday: Tuesday, 1PM ET

Thursday: Thursday 1PM ET

US Dollar Breaks Out From Ascending Wedge – Gold Price Gains Go Along

The US Dollar has finally broken out of the ascending wedge formation that's been brewing since last year. But, now the natural next question for traders: What's next?

At this point, the bullish theme in USD has aim for continuation, but in deciphering that, it's important to dial back to the question of drivers. As in, what created this swell of strength in the US Dollar that's finally allowed for bearish breakouts to show in key pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD? There wasn't any particularly strong US data that did the pushing, nor did this come from FOMC verbiage. Making matters a bit more interesting is the fact that USD-strength showed-up along with stronger Gold prices and a show of strength in the Japanese Yen, all factors that would point to the potential for risk aversion. In this webinar, I looked through major currency pairs to attempt to dial in to the most pressing themes across macro markets.

US Dollar Breakout Crosses Key Terrain

Yesterday's breakout in USD saw the pair take-out the 97.70 level that had made up resistance in the ascending triangle formation, and bulls continued to push. The 98-level was soon in-play, where exists a couple of longer-term Fibonacci levels, but even that couldn't slow down the advance as buyers pushed all the way until a high was set at 98.32. This can make for a difficult time to chase that fresh breakout, especially considering that today's non-completed Daily bar is showing as a spinning top or a possible Doji.

US Dollar Price – Daily Chart

us dollar usd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

This can keep the door open for higher-low support. The area around prior resistance of 97.70 becomes an obvious area to follow. And just above that, around 98, is another potential support zone as taken from two Fibonacci levels.

US Dollar Price Chart – Hourly

us dollar usd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Gold Price Bounces Along with US Dollar Strength

The week started with continued selling in Gold prices, and that theme ran all the way until a bullish trend-line came into play around the 1266 level. That has since helped to hold support, and as the US Dollar breakout started to take-hold yesterday, Gold prices continued to rally from that low.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Gold price daily chart

As of this morning, Gold prices were testing short-term resistance around prior support. This zone runs from 1275.55-1286.38, and this area had previously held up the 2019 lows as a descending triangle formation was building earlier this month. As looked at in the webinar, buyers are now making a forward push to re-claim that support zone, and the fact that this was taking place amidst a backdrop of USD-strength may be saying something.

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

gold price four hour chart

EUR/USD Bounces from 1.1120, Can Bears Continue to Push?

Going along with that USD breakout is a EUR/USD breakdown. I had looked at this level in an article that I had published for ZeroHedge yesterday, attempting to pick out support levels for the EUR/USD breakout. The price of 1.1120, a swing-low last in-play almost two years ago has helped to hold the low from the breakout. Below current prices, support potential exists around the 1.1075 area, the 1.1000 psychological level and, longer-term, a zone that runs from 1.0814-1.0863.

EUR/USD Price Weekly Chart

eur/usd eurusd weekly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBP/USD Breakout Catches Support in Key Zone

I've been following the short-side of GBP/USD over the past couple of weeks, looking for a bearish breakout in a descending triangle formation. That breakout has taken-hold this week, and prices have already moved down to the targeted area around the confluent 1.2900 handle. This can make for a difficult time to investigate fresh bearish exposure considering that price action is sitting at two month lows. This can, however, open the door to retracement potential, with prior support from 1.2960-1.3000 re-opening the door for short-side strategies. Below current price action – support potential exists around 1.2829, 1.2783 and, longer-term, a bit zone of potential support from 1.2671 up to 1.2721.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

gbpusd gbp/usd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Yen Strength Shows Up After BoJ

Also in that category of potential signals for oncoming risk aversion: Yen strength. This showed-up after the BoJ rate decision last night, and making matters more interesting is the 'where,' as USD/JPY tested a key area of resistance before showing an aggressive drop. This price is 112.34, and this is the 76.4% retracement of the November 2017 – May 2018 major move. Each of the retracement levels from this study have come into play this week, and the 112.34 price helped to set support for a large portion of Q4 last year. Prices in USD/JPY stalled at this level, and have since started to fall. The door hasn't been closed yet on the bullish theme, but the momentum with which this move priced-in is notable, and should Yen-strength continue to show, that theme of risk aversion would build a bit more.

USD/JPY Price – Daily Chart

usdjpy usd/jpy daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at.

If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX


2019-04-25 19:03:00

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Bitcoin Price’s Turn Higher May Be Rooted in Lira and Peso Weakness

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 12:17 PM PDT

Hits: 12


Talking Points:

Cryptocurrency markets have had a strong start to 2019: Bitcoin is up 44% year-to-date.

– Meanwhile, USDARS is up 19.6% this year, while USDTRY has added 12.2%.

– Since the start of September 2018, the correlation between Bitcoin and USDTRY has been a statistically significant 0.78.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

Cryptocurrency markets have had a decently strong start to 2019 have a putrid 2018. Last year saw Bitcoin prices lose over -72% over their value, in line with performance seen in Litecoin (-86%), Ether (-81%), and Ripple (-81%), among others.

One possible explanation may be that much of 2018 was marked by steady improvement in demand for risky assets; safe haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and US Dollar were out of vogue up until September 2018.

Cryptocurrency Markets Have Had a Good 2019 So Far

Starting in September 2018, cryptocurrency markets started to turn around, in part, it appears, due to a desire for safe haven assets – but specifically, emerging market investors seeking foreign assets that provided liquidity in non-local denominated currencies.

Pressure in emerging market currencies at the end of 2018 and during the first several months of 2019 have helped propel cryptocurrencies to a strong start this year. Bitcoin prices are up 44% year-to-date while Litcoin prices are up 146%.

Gains May Be Rooted in Developments in Argentina and Turkey

At the start of April, when we last checked in on Bitcoin prices and USDTRY, Turkey had just held local elections. At the time we said that "several minor obstacles appearing at the same time can prove a formidable obstacle." Now, a new obstacle has appeared: the central bank's independence appears increasingly under pressure after they decided to remove their rate hike bias.

Per the Emerging Markets Crisis Monitor, central bank independence is a crucial feature of long-term stability for a currency.

Reflecting this new obstacle, traders have pushed Turkish 5-year CDS prices to their highest level since September 2018 – the tail end of the last time EM FX contagion fears roiled currency markets. But it's not just Turkey: Argentinian 5-year CDS have exploded higher in recent days to indicate the most credit risk since May 2015.

Reflecting economic and political stability, and in turn, the increase in credit risk in recent weeks, USDARS is up 19.6% this year, while USDTRY has added 12.2%.

USDTRY vs Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (September 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

bitcoin price, usdtry price, bitcoin chart, bitcoin forecast, usdtry chart, usdtry forecast, usdtry price forecast

It still holds that the recent Bitcoin rally has gone together with weakness in EM FX, particularly with the Turkish Lira. Since the start of September 2018, the correlation between Bitcoin and USDTRY has been a statistically significant 0.78. Meanwhile, the rolling one-month and three-month correlations are 0.77 and 0.92, respectively.

In other words, when the Lira has rallied, Bitcoin has weakened (September to December 2018); when the Lira has depreciated, Bitcoin has strengthened (January to present).

It thus still holds that if Bitcoin prices and the cryptocurrency market in general are going to stay with their bullish turn in 2019, the best hope remains more weakness in emerging market currencies like the Argentinian Peso and Turkish Lira.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX





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5 Cheap Energy Stocks to Buy Under $10

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 12:13 PM PDT

Hits: 12


A little bit of profit taking has descended on Wall Street after the S&P 500 hit a new record closing high earlier in the week. All is normal and typical behavior after such an impressive move out of the late December low.

Energy stocks continue to be an area of warmth and light as crude oil prices push toward the $70-a-barrel level on increased tensions with Iran following President Trump's decision to further tighten the vice on Tehran's oil exports. His Administration announced that exemptions that allowed trading partners to import Iranian oil would be ended. All this comes as the summer driving season is set to start.

As a result, a number of names in the energy sector are perking up. Especially smaller, cheaper names that have really yet to follow crude oil's push back above its 200-day moving average. Here are five energy stocks trading for less than $10 that are worth a look:

Transocean (RIG)


Click to Enlarge

Shares of Transocean (NYSE:RIG) are holding steady above their 50-day moving average, setting up a push to challenge the 200-day moving average that was last crossed back in September. A return to the triple-top resistance set late last year would be worth a gain of more than 60% from here.

The company will next report results on April 29 after the close. Analysts are looking for a loss of 29 cents per share on revenues of $751.3 million. When the company last reported on Feb. 19, a loss of 34 cents per share missed estimates by 10 cents on an 18.9% rise in revenues.

Callon Petroleum (CPE)


Click to Enlarge

Shares of Callon Petroleum (NYSE:CPE) look set to exit out of a four-month consolidation range with a break above resistance near the $8.50-a-share level. Watch for a run at the 200-day moving average, which would be worth a gain of nearly 20% from here. Earlier this month, the company agreed to sell non-core assets in the Midland Basin for $260 million in cash.

The company will next report results on May 6 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of 15 cents per share on revenues of $151.4 million. When the company last reported on Feb. 26, earnings of 68 cents per share beat estimates by 48 cents on a 37% rise in revenues.

Denbury Resources (DNR)


Click to Enlarge

Shares of Denbury Resources (NYSE:DNR) are arcing up and out of a six-month consolidation range, setting up a move to fill the selloff gap formed in late October that would coincide with a move above its 200-day moving average. Zooming out, the stock has been mired in a churning consolidation range since late 2015, so a rotation back to overhead resistance near $4.50 should be expected.

The company will next report results on May 7 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of 8 cents per share on revenues of $307 million. When the company last reported on Feb. 27, earnings of 10 cents per share beat estimates by a penny on a 4.7% rise in revenues.

Oasis Petroleum (OAS)


Click to Enlarge

Oasis Petroleum (NYSE:OAS) shares look ready to break up and out of a five-month consolidation range with a move above its January high. This comes despite a downgrade from IFS Securities earlier in the week. Watch for a run at the 200-day moving average, lost back in October, which would be worth a gain of nearly 40% from here.

The company will next report results on May 28 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of 4 cents per share on revenues of $421.7 million. When the company last reported on Feb. 26, a loss of 2 cents per share missed estimates by 6 cents on a 37.9% rise in revenues.

Laredo Petroleum (LPI)


Click to Enlarge

Shares of Laredo Petroleum (NYSE:LPI) are mired in a tight but still tightening consolidation range going back to December. This caps an 80%+ decline from the highs seen in late 2016. Watch for an energy price tailwind to drive shares to a challenge of its 200-day moving average, which would be worth a gain of nearly 70% from here. Management is in the midst of a cost-cutting plan, slicing labor costs by 25%.

The company will next report results on May 1 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of 9 cents per share on revenues of $185.1 million. When the company last reported on Feb. 13, earnings of 16 cents per share missed estimates by 6 cents on a 10.4% decline in revenues.

As of this writing, William Roth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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Social Enterprises 101

Posted: 25 Apr 2019 12:03 PM PDT

Hits: 0

There's a lot of chatter these days about Social Enterprises (#socents), a relatively new way of doing business, that we believe is a 'movement' in the entrepreneurial world. It sees millennials (in general) are the driving force behind the trend that's resonating with all generations and revolutionizing the way people do business. Because 'socents' are fairly recent, there is little research about their successes, failures, and what makes them tick.

As with all new things, people are following social enterprises to see if it is indeed a successful and revolutionary new way of doing business or if it's just the trend of the moment.

Social Enterprises: what are they?

Social entrepreneurship, according to Harvard Business Review , "has emerged over the past several decades as a way to identify and bring about potentially transformative and societal change."

Social Enterprise Council of Canada describes social enterprises as – "businesses owned by non-profit organizations that are directly involved in the production and / or selling of goods and services for the blended purpose of generating income and achieving social, cultural, and / or environmental aims. "

The main identifying characteristic of social enterprises is that they are businesses which have a greater purpose and in general aim to 'do good' while making a profit.

Social Enterprises: key challenges

The first and most significant challenge of a social enterprise is that it is not an easy way to raise revenue. Most soconents take years before they break even, let alone start generating funds. Long term commitment and subsiding are essential and are hard to find. That's why a common way of seeking funds is through crowdfunding campaigns such as IndieGogo or PinUp.

But even then, nothing is certain, and balancing a social enterprise of social and financial priorities is extremely challenging.

The second challenge we've observed is the difficulty of selling a new idea. In most cases the idea has not been proven to be successful yet, and is therefore not free of risk even though it may hold great potential. It's difficult to 'pitch' an idea that has not yet proven results; and it's next to impossible to deploy on the idea without the money to do so. It's a bit of a 'chicken before the egg' dilemma and it can be one of the most frustrating aspects of starting a social enterprise.

As explained by Sarita Douglas of Demand Media, "A social enterprise faces the same issues that any traditional business faces in its growth and operations. But social entrepreneurs also face unique challenges in delivering the social value, social returns or social impact of the enterprise in addition to commercial value ".

Benefits: success is possible

In order to succeed, social enterprise s must agree with both social goals and significant financial constraints. The initiative must be financial sustainable, otherwise the project will require a constant flow of subsidies, charity and contributions that traditional non-profit organizations heavily heavily on; that are, in nature, unsustainable and difficult to secure.

Many social enterprises maximize their impact through collaboration, co-operation and social innovation. They tackle traditional business problems in a different way; and scale of business does not necessarily equal scale of impact.

One common practice among social entrepreneurs is to share ideas with peers. For us, building relationships and networks to maximize impact has been essential. Rather than worrying about competitors, we've taken on the strategy of sharing information and connecting with our peers in the effort to gain insight, industry 'best practices', and future contacts.

We recommend brainstorming with experts and contributors to help find solutions to common industry problems. Simply put, the more people are inspired and join your "movement", the more likely others will take notice and in turn, make resources available.

Much work is yet to be done to discover all of the benefits of running socially responsible and economically sustainable organizations. The bottom line is this: a social enterprise is a business. It needs to be run by professionals with commercial experience who understands financial planning, scaling and growth as well as social issues.



Source by Jessica Van Thiel

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