Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- Crude Oil Price Forecast: Drifting Towards Technical Support
- S&P 500, USDCNH and EURGBP Nexus of Speculative Interest Next Week
- Australian Dollar Targets 2009 Lows, AUD/CAD and EUR/AUD Follow?
- 76.8% of Traders Are Net-Long
- Gold Price Plummets, Seeks Technical Support Near May Lows
- USDCAD Rips and Dips on Tariffs, USMCA Deal, BOC Report
- GBPUSD Extends Drop, Chinese Yuan in Freefall, Beware of Currency Intervention
- Dollar Higher; Pound, Euro, and Gold Price Charts for Next Week
- GBPUSD Price Slumps to a Four-Month Low on Brexit Disarray
- Gold Price Outlook Eyes US Data and Chinese Yuan Weakness
| Crude Oil Price Forecast: Drifting Towards Technical Support Posted: 17 May 2019 10:28 PM PDT Hits: 15 Crude Oil Price – Talking Points:
The DailyFX Q2 Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Oil. How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips Technical Forecast for Crude Oil: NeutralThe week ahead forecast for crude oil is neutral and likely to stay range bound unless the market receives a major political or economic shock. While both possibilities still exist, the market is seemingly taking recent US-China trade war news and Middle East political fears in its stride. This weekend OPEC members, without Iran, will meet for a non-technical meeting in Saudi Arabia. This Joint Ministerial Monitoring meeting will discuss current market conditions and compliance and are also likely to debate oil security measures ahead of the June 25 full OPEC meeting in Vienna. DailyFX analyst Justin McQueen notes that Oil Backwardation is at a Four-Month High. The technical outlook for oil remains muted in the short-term with a breakout from the recent six-week range – $68.72/bbl. to $74.84/bbl. – unlikely. The current spot price of $72.00/bbl. currently sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $70.56/bbl. and above all three moving averages, adding additional weight to support. The CCI indicator is nearing overbought territory and may act as a lag on further upside momentum in the short-term. To the upside, oil needs to break and close above the recent 'double tops' at $72.76/bbl. and $72.92/bbl. if it is to move higher and attempt to re-take the April 25 high at $74.88/bbl. the highest print since November 1, 2018. Crude Oil Daily Price Chart – May 17, 2019 Looking at the four-hour chart, there is a small gap on the April 26 candle between $72.85/bbl. and $73.37/bbl. that may attract interest, although the lower bound may prove difficult to break above in the short-term with the CCI indicator now moving out of overbought territory. Crude Oil Four-Hour Price Chart – May 17, 2019
IG Client Sentiment data show how traders are positioned in a wide range of currencies, commodities and cryptocurrencies. Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatility – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. — Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1 Looking for a fundamental perspective on Oil? Check out the Weekly Oil Fundamental Forecast 2019-05-18 05:00:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| S&P 500, USDCNH and EURGBP Nexus of Speculative Interest Next Week Posted: 17 May 2019 08:37 PM PDT Hits: 10 Trade Wars Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning AUDUSD, EURUSD, S&P 500 along with the other FX majors, indices, gold and oil intraday using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. Two Trade War Breakthroughs are Overlooked for the United States-China StandoffTrade wars were at the top of the headlines this past week – which makes it the primary medium for speculative interests – and it will likely retain that influence when liquidity returns Monday. While these global relationships are ultimately influential for the pressure they put on economic activity or financial stability further down the line, speculative markets attempt to price known risks well before the impact is registered. And, it is this concern of fallout that continues to unsettle sentiment at such an inopportune time – with the S&P 500 and Dow losing traction just off of record highs. What is interesting about the bias that held through the end of this past week is that the market could have seized on favorable developments in trade relationships if there were any latent feelings of optimism to exploit. That fact that the encouraging signs were overlooked suggests there may be some skew to account for moving forward. The improvement to the long-standing dispute over trade was registered with a smaller skirmish in the market’s radar and the avoidance of a much larger economic block being added to the already-complicated environment. The biggest relief this past week was the Trump administration’s confirmation that it would delay the decision on whether or not it will levy taxes on imported autos and auto parts as a means to answer a perceived national security risk. That was the expected outcome owing to the risk it posed to the financial system, but the unpredictable Trump administration is no longer taken for granted. As significant as that 6 months of policy freeze is, it didn’t heft enough strength to drive the DAX or Euro higher much less global risk trends. The other tangible update on the day was the news that the White House would lift the import taxes on steel and aluminum for the Canada and Mexico – in a bid to push the USMCA deal through its own Congress. Here again, the response was extremely tepid with the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso showing little in the way of assurance after the news. Chart of USDCAD (Daily) In contrast to the progress made in the United States’ trade relationship with Europe, Japan, Canada and Mexico; the pressure has not eased in its standoff with China. In a week’s time, anticipation of a compromise and a course reversal in the most expensive trade war in history has turned into an incredible escalation of tension with threats of far more. Following the US tariff hike on $200 billion in Chinese goods (10 to 25 percent) and China’s retaliation on $60 billion in US imports, there has been little assurance that talks were picking back up. In fact, unconfirmed reports suggested discussions had broke down Friday, news that seemed to exert considerable pain through the S&P 500’s close Friday. Though there are still three weeks until the US considers adding another $325 billion in Chinese imports to the tariff list according to the President, the mood has set the market’s tone. With Chinese telecommunications company Huawei added to the US ‘entities list’, it will be very difficult for the two countries to negotiate in good faith. Monitoring Risk Trends from S&P 500 to Yields, Gold to USDCNHAs we move into a new week of trading, it is critical to keep track of the different measures of ‘risk trends’ that reflect upon unique threats to the system. The favorite measure remains the US equity indices. These measures maintain a long-term premium relative to virtually all other systemic risk measures (global shares, carry trade, emerging markets, junk assets, yields and more). The S&P 500 was only 3.2 percent off its intraday record high through the close – which seems a favorable signal – but the context of the undying complacency from this measure dampens the speculative view. Looking to the scale of intraday reversals from the benchmark (resulting in ‘tails’) we find an unmistakable pressure against bullish progress. Furthermore, the past two weeks opened with large bearish gaps lower, each the largest in a decade. If there were a third such large drop lower to start this next week, there little chance that the market would miss the signal. Chart of S&P 500 and Opening Gaps (Weekly)
In the meantime, my assessment of market sentiment rests more heavily with measures that have far less connection to the complacent speculation that has kept purely financial assets like the US indices propped up. Global government bond yields for example incorporate not just the appetite of traders hungry for every basis point of yield and willing to hold for any capital gains, but they also reflect growth potential as appoint of value. It is therefore troubling to see the scale of divergence between the likes of the S&P 500 and aggregate yield of the largest 10-year government bond yields. Gold is another multifaceted speculative measure. Rather than playing the role of a rote safe haven, this commodity is prized when risk aversion comes with a material complication in confidence for financial stability and currency health. If the metal is rising materially, there is reason to be concerned. Chart of S&P 500 and Aggregate US, German, UK and Japan 10-Year Treasury Yield (Daily)
The most troubling risk-oriented scenario that I am keeping an eye for the week ahead is a possible sustained advance in the USDCNH (the Dollar-Chinese Yuan exchange rate). Chinese financial monitors exert careful control over the exchange rate, preventing market runs that could trigger complications in market stability. There is an unspoken but understood cap on the USDCNH exchange rate at 7.0000 that the PBOC has defended in the past likely in an effort to avoid accusations of exchange rate manipulation aimed at unfair trade advantage and to avoid the perception that the authorities are losing control over capital controls. If this rate were to overtake that level, there is no way reassuring alternative explanation for such a run and authorities would likely default to an explanation that it was a strategic decision (rather than a troubling loss of influence) which would drive trade wars further. Intervention is very likely as we hold near 7.0000. Keep an eye on USDCNH as global investors weigh their confidence for the future. Chart of USDCNH and 2-Week Rate of Change (Weekly)
EURGBP Anticipation for EU Parliamentary Elections, Loonie Late Response, Dollar Remains BenefactorCombing the economic docket over the coming week, there are a host of noteworthy releases; but true market movement will likely reside with only those few measures that can tap more systemic issues. For example, the there are RBA minutes and 1Q construction activity figures from Australia over the coming week, but the currency’s attachment to trade wars will determine next moves for the AUDUSD at fresh multi-year lows. The Canadian Dollar is another remarkable contrast in fundamental waves against unflappable price action. USDCAD has refused to clear its approximate 100 point range despite the trade war breakthrough. That move is inevitable, but when will it happen and can it establish any real follow through? For scheduled event risk, the biggest listing on my docket is the EU Parliamentary election which runs from May 23rd to the 26th. The outcome for this vote has enormous implications for the Euro which has struggled against the news German growth has stalled and Italy is pushing back against debt restrictions. If nationalist parties gain greater traction in the polls, anti-EU and anti-Euro sentiment is likely to climb. The Sterling will also find itself tied to this event. The government had to agree to participate in elections in order to draw the extension on the Brexit negotiations. That additional time was clearly necessary as we watched discussions breakdown between Government and Labour party this past week. Whether you like Prime Minister Theresa May or not, reports that she will lay out the time frame for her stepping down next month only adds to the uncertainty we are dealing with. Chart of Equally-Weighted Pound Index and Consecutive Candle Moves (Daily)
As these majors deal with their own fundamental tides, the most liquid currency may find itself at the mercy – or taking advantage – of its benchmark counterparts. The US Dollar has defied its traditional ties to volatility as a safe haven currency and its carry trade status hasn’t seen a positive correlation between USD and interest rate forecasts derived from Fed Funds futures. As for data, the strongest consumer sentiment data (from the University of Michigan) in 15 years seemed to stoke little enthusiasm as the trade wars retain a special place of concern moving forward. There is notable event risk ahead for the Greenback – Fed’s Powell speaking, May PMIs for a GDP proxy and the FOMC minutes – yet this mix is unlikely to spur the currency to life. The real capacity for the Dollar to move will be through the contrast it draws from its major counterparts. If the Euro, Pound and Yen all drop moving forward; the USD will benefit. If they lose traction, it will be chop. We discuss all of this and more in this weekend Trading Video. If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-05-18 02:47:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Australian Dollar Targets 2009 Lows, AUD/CAD and EUR/AUD Follow? Posted: 17 May 2019 07:57 PM PDT Hits: 6 Australian Dollar Technical Forecast
Have a question about what's in store for Australian Dollar next week? Join aTrading Q&A Webinarto ask it live! AUD/USD Technical OutlookThe Australian Dollar disregarded bullish technical reversal warnings that greeted it when it found itself sitting at critical support last week. AUD/USD ended up breaking out under 0.6982, achieving its weakest closes seen this year thus far. Zooming out, the Aussie has essentially resumed the dominant downtrend that ensued back in January 2018. Now, there is the potential that AUD/USD may in the medium-term find itself testing lows not seen since March 2009 at 0.6744. This past week, it took out August 2015 lows at 0.69. It finds itself facing January 2016 lows next at 0.6827. Meanwhile, a near-term falling resistance line from April (pink line below) is guiding it lower. AUD/USD Daily Chart AUD/CAD Technical OutlookWeakness in the Australian Dollar was seen across the board last week and AUD/CAD was no exception. The pair went on its worst consecutive losing streak, 8 days, since September 2012. This falls in line with one of my top trading opportunities for this year, bearish AUD/CAD, NZD/CAD and EUR/CAD. After the pair cleared 2016 lows at 0.9327, which also aligned with February lows, the pair accelerated its downtrend from the middle of April. It is now facing lows seen in 2013 and 2015 between 0.9151 and 0.9183 which may come up as support ahead. In the event of a turn higher, keep an eye on the two near-term falling trend lines guiding it lower on the chart below. AUD/CAD Daily Chart
EUR/AUD Technical OutlookEUR/AUD meanwhile accelerated its near-term uptrend after bouncing on the rising trend line from February 2017, which ended up being a key turning point as anticipated. The initiation of the uptrend since then was also accompanied with a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Since then, the pair seems to be confining within a rising channel on the next chart below. Last week, the pair cleared the psychological barrier between 1.6057 and 1.6122. This has opened the door to testing the next area of resistance between 1.6276 and 1.6354. This may prove tough however, as in the past, EUR/AUD was unable to clear this are on numerous occasions in 2018 and earlier this year. With that in mind, the pronounced weakness in the Australian Dollar comes amidst the risk of heightened volatility on US-China trade wars. For more updates on the Aussie Dollar, you can follow me on twitter here @ddubrovskyFX where I will also be watching out for those prominent fundamental developments. EUR/AUD Daily Chart
* Charts created in TradingView FX Trading Resources — Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Posted: 17 May 2019 01:12 PM PDT Hits: 11 NET-SHORT TRADERS DECREASED BY 21.3% FROM LAST WEEKSpot Gold: Retail trader data shows 76.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.32 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.2% lower than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.3% lower than yesterday and 21.3% lower from last week. To gain more insight in how we use sentiment to supplement a strategy, join us for one of our weekly webinars on how to "Identify Trends with Sentiment": (click on one of the above times to enroll) GOLD SENTIMENT SUGGESTS A BEARISH TRADING BIASWe typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias. 2019-05-17 19:40:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Gold Price Plummets, Seeks Technical Support Near May Lows Posted: 17 May 2019 12:35 PM PDT Hits: 11 Gold Price Forecast:
Gold Price Plummets, Seeks Technical Support Near May LowsAfter a failed drive higher in Wednesday trading, gold prices have been battered as the week draws to a close. As forecasted, a series of technical resistance levels combined with the $1,300 psychological level worked in tandem to rebuke a continuation higher. With gold trading to its lowest price since May 3, and on pace for its largest intraday loss since April 16, the metal now grasps for support. Gold Price Chart (XAUUSD): Daily Time Frame (January 2019 – May 2019) (Chart 1)Gold price intraday percentage change in blue To that end, the safe-haven asset has some options to work with. First, the 38.2% retracement at $1,275 – counterpart to the 23.6% that stalled Wednesday and Thursday's attempted moves higher – offers immediate support. A close above $1,275 would be an encouraging sign for gold bulls heading into next week. Similarly, an ascending trendline from the August 2018 lows will provide further buoyancy. Although gold prices probed beneath the trendline in early May, a close above in Friday trading would meaningfully bolster the support offered in the $1,275 to $1,278 range. View A Brief History of Trade Wars to read about the precedents set in prior economic conflicts. However, should selling continue and those levels are rendered obsolete, subsequent support will be offered by the 50% Fib level at $1,263 and prior to that, a modicum of support may be offered at May lows around $1,268. While there is no lack of support, a break beneath the descending trendline originating from February 20, may seek to reassert its dominance over the technical landscape. Gold Price Chart (XAUUSD): 4 – Hour Time Frame (February 2019 – May 2019) (Chart 2)
USDCNH: Why 7.00 is the Spot to Watch in the US-China Trade War Since February, the trendline has guided gold prices lower, rebuking multiple attempts higher – until gold's rally on Monday. The surge corresponded with the largest S&P 500 gap lower since 2009, which was seemingly a sufficient catalyst to drive prices above the trendline. But as the week progressed and trade-war risks have calmed, equities have rebounded, and safe-haven demand has receded. At the same time, the US Dollar has found its footing – surmounting a key trendline of its own – adding to downward pressure on gold. If the fundamental landscape remains stable next week, expect gold to flounder between the different technical levels as traders seek to determine which garners the most respect. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updated analysis and technical levels on gold. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more: EURGBP Extends Winning Streak as Brexit Uncertainty Weighs DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| USDCAD Rips and Dips on Tariffs, USMCA Deal, BOC Report Posted: 17 May 2019 10:38 AM PDT Hits: 7 USDCAD, BOC, TARIFFS, USMCA DEAL – TALKING POINTS
USDCAD climbed over 100 pips from Thursday's intraday low and topped the 1.35 handle early Friday only to quickly plunge back to the 1.3460 mark as contradicting news clouds the currency pair's direction over the short term. The Canadian Dollar depreciated against the US Dollar throughout most of yesterday's trading session, likely in response to downbeat commentary in the Bank of Canada's Financial Stability Report released. The BOC stated that vulnerabilities and risks to financial stability in Canada ticked "slightly higher" mostly owing to "fragile corporate debt funding" and a high "overall level of indebtedness" in the country. USDCAD PRICE CHART: 15-MINUTE TIME FRAME (MAY 16, 2019 TO MAY 17, 2019)The report also largely discussed headwinds faced by slowing economic growth. Consequently, USDCAD climbed broadly higher. But, the central bank noted progress in areas of mortgage lending and household borrowing while concluding that the "system remains resilient and confidence among market participants continues to be high." Late on Thursday, upside in USDCAD was exacerbated by reports from the Trump Administration that it plans to slash tariffs on Turkish steel exports in half from 50 percent to 25 percent. The official report stated that "maintaining the existing 25 percent ad valorem tariff on most countries is necessary and appropriate at this time" which some market participants interpreted as Trump plans to leave metal tariffs currently imposed on Canada in place – possibly jeopardizing the long-anticipated USMCA deal. This seemingly countered the upbeat USMCA rhetoric earlier in the week, previously pushing the Canadian Dollar higher. Now, the White House has confirmed its intent to lift metal tariffs after President Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke on the phone early Friday. With the removal of tariffs on steel and other metals like aluminum, the biggest obstacle to finalizing the USMCA deal appears to have been overcome. Also, the countries reportedly agreed to stronger monitoring and enforcement procedures opting against import restrictions via quotas. This is a major breakthrough considering 19 percent of US steel imports were from Canada whereas Canada sent nearly 90 percent of its steel exports to America. Along with Mexico, the final USMCA deal reached between the three North American trading partners is a key development which now looks to provide some buoyancy to the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso over the short and medium term. Although, with the US Dollar is pushing higher today as well after a stellar consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan – news that is likely offsetting the recent dip lower in USDCAD and USDMXN slightly. – Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX – Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| GBPUSD Extends Drop, Chinese Yuan in Freefall, Beware of Currency Intervention Posted: 17 May 2019 06:51 AM PDT Hits: 14 MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBPUSD Slides Through Support, Chinese Yuan Freefall to Spark Intervention DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts GBP: Unsurprisingly, cross party talks between the government and Labour party have collapsed. However, this did push GBP to session lows, having a made a break below support at 1.2770 (noted Wednesday), while GBPJPY tripped through 140.00. While the pressure is continuing to rise for PM May to offer her resignation, the risk is who will replace her. A hard Brexiteer could see GBP drop even lower, which places 1.2670 in sight. As a reminder, Boris Johnson is leading in the betting markets to replace PM May. CNY/CNH: Since President Trump escalated trade war tensions, the Chinese Yuan has been in freefall with the currency now eyeing a move towards the November 2018 peak (6.98). However, focus is on the psychological floating peg at the 7.00, whereby any attempt to push through could spark a bout of FX intervention. Of note, source reports stated that the PBoC will not let USDCNY go above 7.00. AUD / CAD: As the US-China trade tensions continue to hold its grip on markets, the high beta Aussie has been on the defensive yet again. Elsewhere, the Canadian Dollar has failed to be lifted by the pick up in oil prices with wider US/CA bonds spreads weighing on the currency, alongside the drop in the Yuan. Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters DailyFX Economic Calendar: – North American Releases
How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading WHAT'S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Dollar Higher; Pound, Euro, and Gold Price Charts for Next Week Posted: 17 May 2019 05:36 AM PDT Hits: 8 The Dollar is looking to reassert itself after having undergone a corrective move. The Euro will be the dominating factor in the DXY index, while the Pound's weakness may continue for a little while longer until a big level arises versus the Dollar under 12700. Gold price moved swiftly lower yesterday with the nudge of stronger stocks and Dollar; important trend-line test is nearing… Technical Highlights:
See where our team of analysts see your favorite markets and currencies headed in the in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts. The US Dollar Index (DXY) looking to continue higherThe US Dollar Index (DXY) carved out a bullish corrective wedge in recent sessions and with yesterday's rally it is pushing out of the pattern. This has the Dollar positioned for higher prices in the session ahead with the next immediate level resistance at 98.10, followed by 98.33 (April high). A breakdown below yesterday's low at 97.44 is reason to become cautious on a bullish outlook. US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart (out of wedge)Find out where our analysts see the Dollar heading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Dollar Forecast GBPUSD working towards key inflection pointGBPUSD continues to get hit for a 5th day in a row so far, with its only up day since May 3 having been only a handful of pips. This has the pair currently trading under the Feb 14 low. Continued weakness is anticipated in the near-term, but a big level is coming up. The August low was met with a powerful reversal back on Jan 15, making the 12660s important to watch price action for signs of a reversal. GBPUSD Daily Chart (12660s could be big)
Find out where our analysts see the Pound heading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Pound Forecast Euro looking towards the 11100-mark or worse soonThe Euro is edging lower in-line with its trend, looking to soon put pressure on the 11100 mark. A breakdown will have underside trend-lines in play, and with volatility so low it won't be surprising to see another bounce develop from around last month's low or just beneath in the upper 11100s. The trading bias is down but caution is warranted on shorts as lower levels get probed. EURUSD Daily Chart (low near 11100 the risk)
Find out where our analysts see the Euroheading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Euro Forecast Gold price looking towards August trend-line testGold took a hit yesterday and with it the trend-line off the August low could soon be back in play near 1275. A break below there will quickly put pressure on 1266, the double-bottom lows made previously make on the August trend-line. From there things could get ugly for gold. Find out where our analysts see Gold heading in the coming weeks based on both fundamental and technical factors – Q2 Gold Forecast Gold Price Daily Chart (August t-line in sight)
Resources for Forex & CFD TradersWhether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| GBPUSD Price Slumps to a Four-Month Low on Brexit Disarray Posted: 17 May 2019 05:00 AM PDT Hits: 1 Sterling (GBP) Price and Latest Brexit News:
Q2 2019 GBP and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities GBPUSD Down Nearly Three Cents on the Week as Bears Growl LouderThe political backdrop in the UK has become increasingly unstable after the latest cross-party talks fail to find any common ground, leaving UK PM Theresa May's leadership untenable. After the talks broke down, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn highlighted the 'increasing weakness and instability' of PM May's administration, adding that despite detailed discussions without significant changes 'we will continue to oppose the Government's deal'. PM May recently said that she would present the Withdrawal Agreement to Parliament again early in June. PM May's position as Conservative Party leader also received another blow late Thursday when the 1922 Committee said that the Prime Minister must stand down by the end the end of June, at the latest, so the Conservative Party can elect a new leader before the end of July. The former Secretary of State Boris Johnson has now thrown his hat into the ring and has been installed as the favorite to lead the Conservative Party by most bookmakers. GBPUSD has fallen from a weekly high of 1.3040 to a current level of 1.2755, the lowest price since mid-January, primarily on the ongoing political backlash and aided by a strong US dollar. If the January 'spike' low at 1.2670 is broken convincingly, then 1.2435 becomes a potential target. If GBPUSD trades below here the pair will be back at lows last seen in April 2017. This week's sharp sell-off has caused the CCI indicator to sound an oversold warning which may temper further sharp downside action going into the weekend. GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – May 17, 2019)
Retail traders are 79.4% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data. See how recent daily and weekly positional changes affect GBPUSD and currently give us a mixed trading bias. Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.
Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Gold Price Outlook Eyes US Data and Chinese Yuan Weakness Posted: 17 May 2019 03:00 AM PDT Hits: 2 Gold (XAU) Plays a Waiting Game:
DailyFX Q2 Forecasts and Top 2019 Trading Opportunities. Gold (XAU) Price Little Changed for NowThe price of gold is trading either side of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,287/oz. and needs an impulse to break the current market torpor. Overall, the market still seems biased to higher prices with gold trading above all three moving averages and now out of overbought territory, using the CCI indicator. There is also old horizontal support between $1,277/oz. and $1,281/oz. which should also act as a buffer to any sell-off. Below here, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level comes into play at $1,263/oz. Upside momentum should find resistance at the psychological level at $1,300/oz. before the recent monthly high at $1,304.5/oz. In the near-term, gold traders will be likely watching moves in USDCNH which is currently trading at a near six-month high of 6.9450. While the correlation between gold and USDCNH has been broken recently, a weaker Chinese Yuan has weighed on the price of gold in the past and USDCNH moves, especially at its current lofty level, should be monitored carefully. In what has been a quiet week for heavyweight US data, this afternoon sees the release of the Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index which may well direct the US dollar going into the weekend. The sentiment index is expected to move higher in May to 97.5 from a prior reading of 97.2. The US dollar basket is currently moving slightly higher, mainly due to GBP and EUR weakness, and this may also dampen any upside gold move, especially if US data beats expectations. DailyFX analyst Richard Dvorak will be covering the Uni of Michigan Data Live from 13.45 GMT today. How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips Gold (XAU) Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – May 17, 2019)
Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio: Strategies and Tips. IG Client Sentiment data show that retail traders are 78.9% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly sentiment shifts give us a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias. — Written by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1 2019-05-17 09:28:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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