Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- EURUSD May Break Falling Wedge Pattern
- A Dollar Reversal and S&P 500 Nonplussed at Record High Ahead of G20 Summit
- Gold Goes ’Boom’ – More Room for Rally?
- US Dollar Index Weekly Price Outlook: USD Collapse Searches Support
- USD Mixed as Markit PMI Shows Manufacturing Falling to 117-Month Low
- Gold Rips to 5-Year Highs- Buyers Beware
- EURUSD Reclaims 1.13, Gold Cracks $1400, Oil Price Volatility Persists
- US Dollar Sell-Off Pauses at Key Support
- Forex and Gold Price Charts to Watch Next Week
| EURUSD May Break Falling Wedge Pattern Posted: 21 Jun 2019 09:09 PM PDT Hits: 8 Euro Technical Outlook:
Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page for intermediate-term forecasts, educational content aimed all experience levels, and more. EURUSD on the cusp of triggering falling wedge pattern Last week, the Euro stopped its decline around support just under 11200 and swung higher to press up against the top-side of a falling wedge that has been building since August. The breakout of the wedge could result in a powerful move as pent up pressure in a low-volatility environment is due to be released. But resistance is resistance until proven otherwise, and even if the confluence of the June 7 high at 11348, the January trend-line, and the 200-day just a few pips higher is broken, we will want to see how the rally holds. There have been numerous attempts to trade higher in recent months, but each of them has ended in speedy reversals back lower. With that in mind, if the next week can bring a closing weekly candlestick above the top-side t-line of the wedge, it would add conviction to a bullish outlook. Tactically, this means fresh longs may be best kept on the back-burner for now. Would-be shorts could look to lean on resistance levels close by as a line-in-the-sand. Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning in major markets could signal the next price move. EURUSD Weekly Chart (Falling wedge) EURUSD Daily Chart (Confluence of resistance)
Helpful Resources for Forex Traders Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| A Dollar Reversal and S&P 500 Nonplussed at Record High Ahead of G20 Summit Posted: 21 Jun 2019 08:34 PM PDT Hits: 10 G20 Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in S&P 500, Gold and Dollar-based majors along with the other key FX pairs, indices and oil intraday using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. Will Monetary Policy Continue to Drive Markets Next Week?Following my number one rule for fundamental analysis – determining what is the most pressing motivation for the largest swath of the market – I’m left with the sense that we will see the speculative gears retooled over the coming week. We are passing out of a week in which it was explicitly clear that monetary policy was the principle driver for the FX and capital markets alike. If it weren’t for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and forecasts, the markets may have struggled for any kind of significant movement in benchmark assets. What is particularly unusual about the charge for the likes of the S&P 500 (which pushed a record high) is the consideration that the US central bank was not even that aggressive in its actual views and the markets paid far less attention to more overt commitments made by other groups. As a driver of speculative interests, traders should be mindful of hanging their expectations on the shoulders of groups like the FOMC. There are far fewer scheduled updates expected on the systemic aspect of the topic next week, but there will also likely be intense interest in the many Fed officials' speeches scheduled – anchored by Powell’s address. Chart of Aggregate Central Bank Balance Sheets and S&P 500 (Monthly) While event risk (‘catalysts’) are fleeting, there is good reason to believe that a particularly important docket item in the week ahead will stir systemic interest in a frequent driver for the financial markets: the G-20 summit. The two-day meeting in previous years has had few critical points to touch upon for which markets actually cared. Nowadays, this meeting will act as a definitive progress report on numerous global issues. Trouble over the tempered pace of global growth and the tension between the US and Iran will certainly be important items, but it is trade wars which will draw the closest scrutiny for updates. In the past few months, the tension increased dramatically and then it has seemingly eased sharply just these past few weeks. We have seen a list of threats made by the US against Europe fade and a USMCA deal is no longer being held up by the threat of a 5 percent tax on all Mexican imports levied by the Trump administration for a week. The real interest is in the relationship between the US and China. There is still the open threat made by the White House to expand its 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods to encompass all of the country’s shipments is progress is not made. Yet, the language on both sides has recently thawed. That said, businesses are signaling they are accumulating pain and the US added 5 new countries to its ‘entity’ list just on Friday. There is a lot of deserved uncertainty here. Chart of Huawei Overlaid with USDCNH in Red (Daily)
Ultimately, the fundamental jumps we have received from a dovish turn in monetary policy and fostered hope that trade wars are soon to end represent only transient boosts to enthusiasm. To permanently close the yawning gap between the level of risk taking and the tangible value to be found in the open market, we need to restore a reliable foundation for economic expansion. Through the past week, we were met with a number of downgrades in forecasted activity through entities like central banks and data reinforced a faltering trajectory. The June PMIs released on Friday showed Japan manufacturing further slowed and the United States’ own factory activity hit its slowest pace of expansion in nearly 10 years. The Euro-area measures offered a measure of improvement over the previous month, but these figures alone aren’t changing the potential of the global economy. Chart of S&P 500 and a Risk-Reward Index (Weekly)
The Speculative Intensity Behind the Dollar and US IndicesIf we are looking for a definitive barometer as to which critical theme is at the helm of market trends, there is unfortunately no consistently reliable measure for which we can rely. That said, there are certain assets that can better represent the specific measures that we have recently struggled with. The Dollar is arguably at the center of all the major fundamental concerns. In monetary policy terms, the Fed’s weight is even greater now than it has been in the past decade thanks to its effort to normalize while others trailed far behind. In the meantime, the US is the instigator for the vast majority of trades wars currently ongoing, and it is unclear as to what scenario could actually confer benefit to the currency moving forward. The state of economic expansion is frequently judged on a global basis through a singular review of the US itself. At is this crossroads that makes the bearing of the Greenback so remarkable. A dominant theme or rare convergence of outcomes between them can drive the USD higher or lower. As it happens, this past week’s tumble represents the worst week’s performance since February 2018. That swell in activity was likely necessary to finally drive the DXY through 13-month channel support and the 200-day moving average. While the benchmark currency is facing a potentially critical break, it is still an uphill battle to overcome the shackles that have restricted this benchmark to its smallest 60-day historical range (as a percentage of price) on record. Chart of DXY Dollar Index and 3-Month Historical Range (Weekly)
Where the US currency is a more balanced measure of bullish or bearish developments on these critical themes, the S&P 500, Dow and US indices are dramatically skewed. This particular segment of the financial system has reflected a clear bias towards favorable developments. That appetite has created a clear outperformance relative to global equities, emerging markets, yields and other traditional measures. Yet, the extent of that disparity is hard to fully appreciate until we hit key milestones as we did this past week. The S&P 500 rose to a record high on a close basis Thursday and an intraday measure through Friday. This seems to be a response to the combined influence of a market certain of impending Fed rate cuts and anticipation of a trade resolution between the two largest economies next week. These outcomes are far from certain; but far more troubling is the consideration as to whether these scenarios would genuinely confer the kind of benefit that seems to be assumed.
Thematic Measures Like Gold and Oil Versus Discreet Flash Points Like Kiwi and Swiss FrancWhile the benchmark currency and preferred asset in global portfolios are good filters for sentiment, my favorite skewed lens for our particular conditions remains gold. The precious metal mounted an incredible four-day charge to round out the single best week’s rally for the market since April 2016. In the process of this charge, the commodity took out resistance on a six-year long congestion resistance. What was the source of this run? While some may put the responsibility solely on the Dollar’s slide, the true scale of the move reflects on the broad devaluation of traditional currencies as the world’s largest central banks have collective reversed course back into an overt dovish perspective. While EURUSD will rise or fall as the title of ‘least aggressive dove’ changes hands, from a perspective outside of their relative influence, we are seeing a universal depreciation of currency that leaves few viable options aside from gold. If we were to add risk aversion to this mix, it would likely hasten the return to 2011’s record highs.
Another commodity that draws different explanations for influence but which reflects a more systemic issue is crude oil. While most superficial evaluations of the market consistently refer to regular inventory figures (good sometimes for volatility but not trend), the more consistent motivator has been affixed to demand. Global growth has clearly flagged and addition of risk aversion over previous weeks had painted a more effective picture. Now, with the Dow and peers jumping, the picture is once again blurred. Yet, as it happens, I believe that supply is temporarily back in the driver’s seat. The news this past week that Iran had shot down a US drone started the distant rumblings of another war for the world’s largest military. Skepticism naturally follows this concern given the nation’s wariness for further military engagements, but reports that the US was on the verge of launching a retaliatory attack but stopped it at the last minute raises serious concerns about the probabilities around this threat of a ‘hot war’. Chart of US Crude Oil (Daily)
While there is considerable traction that can be found through those assets that represent systemic themes, it is not particularly easy to get the momentum rolling on the fundamental engines. That naturally makes the trades based on these fluctuating winds just as precarious. As such, we should consider the more measured opportunities to be found in particular areas of the market. Looking at the docket ahead of us, the New Zealand Dollar represents a considerable potential for volatility. The RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) is not expected to cut rates at the meeting (join us as we cover it live) when we refer to swaps markets, but that in itself is a meaningful development when we consider the Fed is seen as potentially cutting three times according to futures estimates. I will be evaluating the Kiwi crosses a little more closely next week. Then there is the Swiss Franc. While the currency didn’t extend its run at the same tempo Friday, EURCHF was still lingering below critical support seemingly defended over the past few years. The SNB (Swiss National Bank) has stated clearly that they were monitoring the currency and stood ready to intervene should it appreciate too far and/or fast. While it is not clear where their pressure point is, I would not be surprised to learn we have already passed it. We discuss all of this and more in this weekend Trading Video. Chart of Gold (Weekly)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-06-22 02:25:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Gold Goes ’Boom’ – More Room for Rally? Posted: 21 Jun 2019 03:24 PM PDT Hits: 10 Gold Price Weekly Outlook Talking Points: Gold Technical Forecast: BullishGold Prices Break out to Fresh Five-Year-Highs Last week brought a familiar scenario into the mix. Gold prices held resistance at a key area on the chart after what had become a strong two-week-run. Price action showed a long-legged doji on the weekly chart, often indicative of indecision and when printing on the top of a trend, something that may open the door for bearish reversal potential. And this even showed up at a precarious area on the chart, as that batch of resistance had held the highs through many similar themes over the past five years. But this week – this week was unlike any of those instances in the past five years as Gold bulls were finally able to stampede through that resistance. For the first time since 2013, Gold prices traded above the 1400 level; marking a significant move from the support that showed just three weeks ago around the 1275-area. I had highlighted this breakout potential in early-May, and then again later in the month just before the breakout took place as a case of congestion-inside-of-congestion had shown. Gold Price Weekly Chart: Resolution of CongestionGold Goes 'Boom' – Can it Continue? This week saw Gold prices take-out a number of notable levels and given the events in the headlines there was more than adequate reason to explain why this happened. Also given the dovish shift at the Fed and the fact that pretty much all large, global Central Banks are harboring some form of dovish posture, it makes sense that there could be further aim for continuation. The big-picture bullish trend in Gold that ran from the Financial Collapse into 2011 syncs well with a similar theme, as Global Central Banks all held a dovish, bearish backdrop at the time. Now that we're seeing the same type of scenario, there could certainly be additional topside to show. Taking a step back in order to get a bigger-picture look on the matter, and there could be considerable aim for continuation. That 1999-2011 topside run posed an approximate 50% pullback in the eight years since the high was set; but after support showed up in February of 2016, Gold prices spent much of the time since in some form of consolidation. Until this month, that is. That consolidation has now given way to the prior theme of strength that ran so clearly into 2011. Gold Price Monthly Chart
Gold Price Strategy for Next Week Given the strength of the recent move and the context with which this has happened, it could be difficult to justify short-side stances in the yellow metal at the moment. On the opposite end of the spectrum, prices are so far stretched from any nearby points of support that bullish trend strategies could be of challenge, as well. Nonetheless, given the significance of the move and the catalyst that led into it, the technical forecast for Gold will be set to bullish for the week ahead. Below, I look at a series of prior resistance points. Each of these retains some element of value for support potential in the effort of working with pullbacks. Additionally, I've marked a couple of topside levels that could remain of interest on the target side of the equation; namely, the 1433.85 level that came into play as the September 2013 swing-high, along with the 1483.74 level that marks the 50% level of the 2011-2015 pullback. Also of potential interest is a level at 1461.93, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the prior near-term major move. The 27.2% extension of that same study is currently coming in to help hold weekly resistance. Gold Price Weekly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more: Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| US Dollar Index Weekly Price Outlook: USD Collapse Searches Support Posted: 21 Jun 2019 10:33 AM PDT Hits: 10 The US Dollar Index is down more early 1% since the start of the week with price threatening a break of the monthly opening-range lows on Friday. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the DXY weekly chart. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this US Dollar setup and more. New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide US Dollar Index Price Chart – DXY WeeklyNotes: In my last US Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that, "A reversal in the US Dollar Index has taken price back towards multi-month slope support – watch the weekly close." A break lower would expose key confluence support at 96.14– look for a bigger reaction there IF reached." The index is poised to mark an outside-weekly reversal this week with price turning just ahead of the June highs to cover the entire monthly range. The move leaves the risk weighted to the downside heading into next week with a close below the September support slope (blue) needed to keep the immediate short-bias viable. Key support remains at the confluence of the yearly open and the 2018 trendline (red) at 96.14– a break / close below this threshold is needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway in the greenback with such a scenario targeting the 2019 low-week close at 95.66 and the yearly swing low at 95.03. Initial resistance steady at the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 decline at 97.87 with bearish invalidation now lowered to the yearly swing high at 98.37. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy Bottom line: An outside-weekly reversal in the US Dollar Index leaves the risk weighted to the downside in the greenback. That said, look for a weekly close below the September trendline to validate the break targeting yearly open support. From a trading standpoint, the focus is on a test of confluence support lower down near 96.14– look for a reaction there. I'll publish an updated DXY scalp setup once we get further clarity in near-term price action. Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading — Key US Data Releases
Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide! Previous Weekly Technical ChartsLearn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide — Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| USD Mixed as Markit PMI Shows Manufacturing Falling to 117-Month Low Posted: 21 Jun 2019 09:19 AM PDT Hits: 8 Markit Manufacturing PMI Talking Points:
Markit Economics released their monthly Purchasing Managers Index readings this morning which revealed continued weakness in the services and manufacturing sectors. Compared to the prior print of 50.5, June's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 and registered a remarkable 117-month low. The services sector also showed weakness with the index hitting 50.6, down from 50.9 in May. The data comes at a pivotal point for the US as it relates to monetary policy seeing that the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors shifted to a more dovish stance in light of a slowing US economy earlier this week. Powell stressed during this week's press conference that they will be keeping a close eye on economic data considering muted inflation pressures. In turn, US bonds saw strong buying with the US 10-Year yield falling briefly under 2 percent overnight. Contrasting the weak PMI data this morning was an US existing home sales which crossed the wires at 5.34 million and beat expectations along with an upward revision to the prior month reading of 5.21 million. US Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) – 15 Min Time FrameMarkit's Chief Economist noted that prices for goods and services rose at an increased rate for June due primarily to tariffs with two-thirds of manufactures citing tariffs as the reason for higher prices on their raw material costs. Also, survey respondents showed that clients are becoming somewhat averse to risk, mainly due to less than favorable economic conditions in the US. –Written by Thomas Westwater, Intern Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Thomas on Twitter @FxWestwater DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Gold Rips to 5-Year Highs- Buyers Beware Posted: 21 Jun 2019 07:32 AM PDT Hits: 2 Gold prices are up more than 4.1% this week and for a fifth consecutive weekly advance in XAU/USD. The rally marks the largest single-week advance since April of 2016 with price now probing a key resistance zone at fresh five-year highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly price chart. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more. New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Notes: In my last Gold Price Outlook we noted that the, "The weekly opening-range is set in Gold heading into the FOMC interest rate decision later today – look for the break…. A topside breach keeps the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at the 2016 high-week close at 1366 and the 38.2% retracement / 2014 high at 1380/92 (critical)." A breakout post-Fed led the advance with the rally taking XAU/USD to fresh multi-year highs (high registered at 1411). The focus is on a weekly close heading into Friday with price now testing key resistance at 1380/92 – note that basic parallel / channel resistance converges on this zone and further highlights its technical significance. A close above this threshold keeps the focus on subsequent topside objectives at 1433 and the 100% extension of the late-2015 advance at 1451– look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Interim support now 1366 backed by the 2018 high-week close at 1350. Broader bearish invalidation now raised to the February high-week close at 1327. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy Bottom line: The immediate focus is on a weekly close above this critical resistance zone at multi-year highs. A close above 1392 would keep the immediate long-bias viable heading into the final week of June trade. Failure here would highlight the risk for near-term exhaustion. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stop. Ultimately, a pullback would offer more favorable entries closer to the former 2016 trendline. I'll publish an updated Gold Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action next week. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAU/USD prices. Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then- Avoid these Mistakes in your trading Gold Trader Sentiment (XAU/USD)
See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment! — Previous Weekly Technical ChartsLearn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide — Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
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| EURUSD Reclaims 1.13, Gold Cracks $1400, Oil Price Volatility Persists Posted: 21 Jun 2019 06:56 AM PDT Hits: 12 MARKET DEVELOPMENT –EURUSD Reclaims 1.13, Gold Cracks $1400, Oil Price Volatility Continues DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts EUR: Marginal outperformance in the Euro this morning as Eurozone PMIs show signs of a potential stabilisation. Keep in mind that this is from a low base, particularly when it comes to Germany's Mfg. PMI, however, the fact that there have been some signs of a slight improvement has been enough to push through 1.13. Gold: With fresh central bank stimulus on the way and a record high amount of global bonds yielding a negative rate, gold extended on its gains to crack above $1400, target we had been calling for once the Fed reverse policy. However, given the size of the gains over the past month, we do not rule out some short-term consolidation as investors look to book some profits. Topside resistance is situated at $1430-35. Oil: Volatility in the oil complex has increased as of late with tensions between the US and Iran continuing to escalate. Reports overnight noted that President Trump had ordered a strike on Iran before reversing course. However, given that tensions are unlikely to ease in the near-term, particularly with Iran looking to enrich Uranium above its nuclear deal limits on June 27th, there is a risk that oil price spikes continue to occur. Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters
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— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| US Dollar Sell-Off Pauses at Key Support Posted: 21 Jun 2019 05:40 AM PDT Hits: 8 US Dollar, EURUSD, USDJPY Talking Points:
US Dollar Drops Back to Confluent SupportIt's been a big week across global markets and some very key items have shown up, such as Gold's topside run above the 1400 level. The Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday produced reverberations throughout global markets that continue to show, and there may still be some pricing-in of these themes to be seen yet. At the core of the issue is the US Dollar, which had previously spent much of the past eight months in a bullish state; and now may be on the cusp of a very bearish run aided by this dovish flip at the Fed. Coming into Q2 the US Dollar had built into an ascending triangle formation. This is a setup that will often be approached in a bullish manner, looking for the enthusiasm that's driven-in bulls at higher-lows to, eventually, allow for a topside break through horizontal resistance. US Dollar Daily Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley That happened in April and then again in May. The problem was that once the price of 98.33 came into play, bulls lost motivation and prices scaled-back; producing a double-top formation. But also taken from that failure near resistance was a weaker-sloped trend-line that helped to produce a rising wedge pattern; and unlike the ascending triangle looked at above, the rising wedge will often be approached in a bearish manner, looking for reversals as the same reticence from buyers displayed at the highs plays through for an eventual break of support at the lows. US Dollar Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley US Dollar Strategy for Q3There's now one full week left in Q2. Given the turn at the Fed and the moves that followed, traders may be lining up longer-term scenarios of USD-weakness. The big question is where? With most Central Banks harboring some form of dovishness, there aren't many major currencies that are attractive for scenarios of strength. Just this week, we saw a dovish speech from Mario Draghi push down the Euro… for about a day; but the Fed meeting that followed more than took out that move and prices in EURUSD are now jumping towards fresh two-month-highs. The Bank of Japan was similar, threatening even more loosening yet seeing a net result of Yen-strength. And this helps to explain why Gold prices have been so incredibly strong over the past 48 hours and, bigger picture, through the month of June as market participants began to price this theme in. This also places emphasis on the long side of stocks, as dovish Central Bank support the world-around can be used to offset even minor setbacks in the business cycle. In yesterday's webinar, I looked at the matter across a number of major currency pairs. And as noted above, pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY may have backdrops allowing for a continuation of USD-weakness. In EURUSD, this would be more of a short-squeeze scenario as bearish bets in the pair unwind on the back of this dovish flip at the Fed. The down-trend in EUR/USD is now more than a year-old, and after breaking the recent range in March of this year, Euro bears were able to do little as they got caught in a bear trap scenario. Now that prices have flickered back into that prior range, the levels and zones that were previously in use can be re-engaged with. As looked at in this week's FX Setups, this can allow for a move up to the 1.1400 handle, after which prior range resistance becomes of interest and that runs from 1.1448-1.1500. EURUSD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley USDJPY to Fresh Five-Month-Lows After FOMC, BoJAlso of interest on the short-side of the US Dollar is USD/JPY. I was tracking the short side of the pair coming into this month, and that's filled-in fairly well so far. Should USD-weakness remain as a dominant theme across the FX space, there could be more room for the pair to fall as carry trades further unwind and new information is priced-in. A dovish stance at the BoJ is fairly familiar, while this flip at the Fed is rather new, and there may be more room for this to run as that item gets further factored-in to current prices. USDJPY Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Forex and Gold Price Charts to Watch Next Week Posted: 21 Jun 2019 05:04 AM PDT Hits: 9 In today's webinar, we looked at a big line-in-the-sand for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and how a break of it could lead to a sizable down-move. With that, the Euro will of course be the most important player as it is the biggest constituent in the index. We looked a few cross-rate set-ups including but not limited to EURGBP, CHFJPY, and GBPAUD. US Dollar (DXY) Daily ChartGold price is currently above the 1375 breakout threshold I've had penciled in as important to confirm a move higher out of the massive multi-year wedge it's been stuck in. We may see some testing next week of the breakout, which could offer traders an opportunity to establish bullish set-ups as long as support holds. Gold Price Weekly Chart
For the full discussion, check out the video above. Resources for Forex & CFD TradersWhether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
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