Forex News 24 |
- Dow Jones Today: Oil Slicks Lift Stocks
- AUDUSD & Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook: Huawei Offers Opportunity
- 6 Top Stock Trades for Friday: AMD, SQ, DIS
- 7 First-Half IPO Stocks That Will Falter in 2019’s Second Half
- Gold Price Rally May Be Set to Resume Rally to Fresh 2019 Highs
- Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD and EUR/USD
- Oil Price Volatility Hints at Emerging Markets Fallout Risk
- Behind Boeing's Rare Bear Note
- 4 Oil Stocks and Gas Stocks to Buy: SLB, CVX, HES
- FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD
| Dow Jones Today: Oil Slicks Lift Stocks Posted: 13 Jun 2019 02:11 PM PDT Hits: 6 Investors have been hearing plenty about geopolitical risk recently, but it has been mostly of the U.S.-China trade variety. That script flipped Thursday after two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, sending crude prices and stocks higher on the day.  Source: Shutterstock The tankers had just passed through the Strait of Hormuz near Iran, one of the world's most important areas for oil transport, before being attacked. About a third of all oil shipments that are moved by tanker ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Iran was responsible for the attacks. On the back of that news, the United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate futures, jumped 2.26%. Speaking of gains, they were more modest for the major U.S. equity benchmarks as the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 added 0.57% and 0.41%. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average posted an even more modest gain of 0.39%. Usual and Unusual SuspectsWith oil trading higher, it was not surprising that two of today's Dow winners were Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX), the two largest U.S. oil companies. While there was an obvious catalyst to spark the energy sector, it was one of the Dow's consumer discretionary names that led the index higher today. Shares of media and entertainment giant Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) soared nearly 4% after Morgan Stanley issued some bullish commentary on the name. Morgan Stanley boosted its price target on Disney to $160 from $135 today, noting that the company's streaming service, Disney+, is a credible threat to Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). "Stepping back and admittedly taking the long view, investing in Disney shares is a play on the durability of its IP," said Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne in a note out today. On light news, two of the Dow's other consumer cyclical names — Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and NIKE (NYSE:NKE) — were also among the index's best-performing names on the Dow Jones today. The analyst has an "overweight" rating on Disney stock. Speaking of analyst commentary, Boeing (NYSE:BA), the Dow's largest component and a stock frequently highlighted in this space, traded slightly higher despite research firm Berenberg lowering its price target on the aerospace giant to $415 from $430. In the unusual suspects category, Dow Inc. (NYSE:DOW), the lone materials stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, added to its recent hot streak. While the materials sector is one of the smallest sector weights in the Dow and the S&P 500, keeping attention lavished upon the group to a minimum, the group is surging this month and is on pace for its best monthly performance in four years. Bottom Line for the Dow Jones TodayLooking at the broad benchmarks, this weeks' market action makes it feel as though the summer doldrums are setting in, but investors should not get complacent. There are just a couple of weeks left in the second quarter and when July arrives, so will the start of another earnings season. In advance of that, investors may want to evaluate how their portfolios are exposed to international revenue streams and the lingering trade spat with China. Expect to hear plenty of about internal revenue exposure on upcoming second-quarter earnings calls and how that affected results and could impact earnings over the remainder of 2019. "The estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 for Q2 2019 is -2.3%," according to FactSet research. "For companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings growth rate is 1.4%. For companies that generate less than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the estimated earnings decline is -9.3%." Todd Shriber does not own any of the aforementioned securities. Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AUDUSD & Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook: Huawei Offers Opportunity Posted: 13 Jun 2019 02:08 PM PDT Hits: 10 AUDUSD & Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook:
AUDUSD & Nasdaq 100 Price Outlook: Huawei Offers OpportunityAfter the arrest of Huawei's CFO in Canada in late 2018, relations between the United States and the world's largest manufacturer of telecoms equipment have been strained to say the least. In May, the Trump administration placed Huawei on the "entity list" which is effectively an export blacklist. The list forbids US companies from exporting any components or technologies to Huawei. The corporation has since been offered an extension until August 19. Nonetheless, the announcement placed significant pressure on the tech-heavy Nasdaq as investors attempted to gauge the appropriate share price of the impacted stocks. While the Nasdaq has since recovered, American companies in the supply chain have not yet felt the full impact of the blacklist – and neither has Huawei. Huawei SuppliersAs the world's largest producer of telecoms equipment and the world's second-largest smartphone manufacturer, the supply chain of Huawei is both diverse and immense. The company sources chips, batteries and technologies from over 10 countries – with the United States comfortably in second place behind China. With 23 suppliers from the United States alone, it cannot be understated how impactful facing an export ban from the country will prove. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Some of the most noteworthy American suppliers are Broadcom, Qualcomm, Micron, Intel, AMD, Microsoft, Texas Instruments and Nvidia. As many of these firms are industry leaders, the loss of one client is unlikely to see the company shutter its business, but it will undoubtedly alter their quarterly forecasts. To that end, adverse impacts may be delayed, and some firms could even see a slight uptick in sales as Huawei looks to stockpile inventory prior to the ban.
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs That said, stock prices have already begun to reflect future expectations. Led lower by semiconductor stocks, members of the Huawei supply chain have seen mixed performances since President Trump's executive order on May 15. In the same span, the S&P 500 is 2.4% higher. Although each stock faces challenges in addition to Huawei, the entity list is a shared headwind none can escape and will remain troublesome for the foreseeable future. Therefore, it is only reasonable to assume Huawei will experience the most pressure.
Source: Bloomberg Despite the adjustment period before the blacklist is enacted, the cracks are already starting to appear in Huawei's production line. On June 12, Huawei Consumer Device Chief Richard Yu announced the company would be "unable to supply" a laptop that was due to be unveiled in the week. Further still, Mr. Yu said the product itself might have to be entirely scrapped – depending on how long the entity list is in effect. The laptop delay is likely the first of many ramifications of the blacklist, which will force Huawei to look outside the United States for technology and semiconductor sourcing. Unfortunately for Huawei, that may be easier said than done.
Hardware ConcernsAs of 2015, the United States accounted for roughly half of the world's semiconductor production according to a study conducted by the International Trade Administration. Thus, a quick shift to another supplier is unlikely and – given the expansive reach of American intellectual property – not as clear-cut as it may seem. According to US law, foreign technology production can still fall under the ban if more than 25% of the finished good is produced in the United States. This extends the reach of the blacklist to companies like ARM, a chip designer based in the UK and owned by Softbank. ARM recently announced a suspension to business with Huawei because they conduct their chip research and development in the United States. Software ImplicationsBeyond tangible products, the blacklist will also impact software. Google's Android operating system will fall under the blanket of banned exports – an engine used in a significant number of Huawei's smartphones. Similarly, the Windows operating system offered by Microsoft falls under the ban. This will further entangle the software side of the already beleaguered laptop production of Huawei. ZTE PrecedentGiven the current landscape, Huawei is likely grasping for a resolution. One such option, but perhaps unlikely given the state of US-China trade relations, is to change the company's nature of operations. Almost exactly one year prior to Huawei's blacklisting, the Trump administration banned sales of Chinese phone maker ZTE on similar grounds to the detention of Huawei's CFO – the sale of goods to North Korea and Iran. The United States asserted these sales violated existing sanctions. After months of negotiations, the United States and ZTE eventually arrived at an agreement. In exchange for removing ZTE from the entity list, the company would pay a $1 billion fine and make changes to its executive leadership and allow a US compliance team to oversee activities. The former remediated the sanction violation while the latter assuaged national security concerns.
Source: Bloomberg Consequently, ZTE's market capitalization was gutted. While there is precedent, little evidence exists to suggest the Trump administration or Huawei will venture down this path to resolve the current conflict, but it is an option. At the end of June, trade officials from both countries will have the opportunity to meet in Osaka Japan at the G20 Summit – but pessimistic commentary from both sides does not bode well for a quick resolution. Nasdaq 100 & AUDUSD Trading OpportunitiesWith that in mind, the ongoing negotiations present intriguing trading opportunities outside share-specific positions. In the equity space, the unequitable impact from the ban may produce a deeper divergence between the US and Chinese tech sectors. Although Huawei is not listed on any index because it is privately owned, the underperformance of the world's largest telecoms producer – and an especially large player in China – will undoubtedly weigh on the public tech sector.
Similarly, foreign investors and manufacturers may fear a trade war spill-over into other companies and preemptively search for alternatives outside of China. This divergence can be explored via the country's respective tech indices or through the QQQ and CQQQ tech-tracking ETFs.
AUDUSD and CQQQ correlation in blue In the currency market, AUDUSD may offer an opportunity to capitalize off Huawei's endangered position – but also faces broader macroeconomic themes. Still, AUDUSD has proven to be an underperformer since the advent of the US-China trade war and it typically shares a statistically significant correlation with AUDUSD. Thus, a prolonged conflict or flareup should only look to further the pair's weakness. As market themes unfold and traders reposition accordingly, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates to this trade idea. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more:Trade Wars and Tariffs Have Put the US Auto Industry in Peril DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 Top Stock Trades for Friday: AMD, SQ, DIS Posted: 13 Jun 2019 01:35 PM PDT Hits: 7 On Thursday we had some geopolitical news that sent oil prices flying while U.S. stocks pushed higher. The bears still can't grab control of the football, despite the bulls having run so far, so fast. Let's look at a few top stock trades as we enter Friday. Top Stock Trades for Friday #1: Advanced Micro DevicesShares of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) made new highs earlier this week, but have since retreated. The stock is under pressure following an analyst warning on valuation and after reports surfaced of new GPUs from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). That's got shares down below $32, as a potential pullback looms. InvestorPlace readers nailed the breakout in AMD over $29. If we could get a "return to the scene of the crime," that would be a great potential buying opportunity. $30 may buoy the name first, though. That's where the April highs rest with the 20-day moving average trending higher toward that mark now. There are various levels between $27.50 and $30 that should support AMD stock and I consider this a buy-the-dips candidate until proven otherwise. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #2: SquareSquare (NYSE:SQ) did a great job pushing over downtrend resistance (blue line), hurdling its 50-day moving average in the process. So long as SQ stock maintains above $69 it looks good on the long side in the short term. That keeps the stock over the 61.8% one-year retracement and the 50-day moving average. Over the 200-day moving average — which Square is currently contending with — could spark a breakout. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #3: DisneyDisney (NYSE:DIS) continues to move really well. Notice how the House of Mouse was almost immune to the May selloff. Not that it didn't come under pressure and dip below its 20-day moving average — it did — but that's mostly as shares went from $107 to $142 in just a month's time. After consolidating those gains and reclaiming the 20-day, shares look ready to move again. They are knocking on the door of new highs and it looks like DIS wants it. A breakout over $142.50 could trigger another wave of buying, perhaps pushing it to $150. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #4: American AirlinesAmerican Airlines (NYSE:AAL) is rebounding from a brutal breakdown in late May, with shares crashing through long-time $30 support. However, it's since reclaimed that level, as well as the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Now it contends with downtrend resistance (blue line), while the 200-day rests about $1 above current levels. Both have been strong levels of resistance. Should they continue acting as resistance, see if investors get another buying opportunity back at $30. Otherwise, a breakout opportunity may be in the cards. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #5: ClouderaWhat a disaster Cloudera (NYSE:CLDR) has been. Shares have been cut in half in less than a month and appear lost for direction. There are better setups out there, but traders seem to have their eye on this one. Over $5.40 to $5.50 could send CLDR back to $5.90. Clearing this mark is what's necessary to start filling the gap, while the descending 20-day moving average will likely act as resistance. Below $5 is a big concern with CLDR. I'd rather play a different stock… Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #6: ZscalerPerhaps something like Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS). This name has been knocking on the $80 door all day Thursday and wants to bust through like nobody's business. Can it? Maybe this one fails to push through or causes a false breakout, but I like it more than CLDR. Watch for a push through $80 on ZS. This one paid out nicely last time we were watching it. Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long NVDA. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 First-Half IPO Stocks That Will Falter in 2019’s Second Half Posted: 13 Jun 2019 12:53 PM PDT Hits: 12 Two consumer-facing IPO stocks have stood out for investors in the first six months of 2019. First, Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND), the meatless burger taking the world by storm, went public on May 1 at $25 a share. Since then, it's gained 468% through June 13, and that's with a big two-day selloff on June 10 and June 11. The second IPO to turn heads is Revolve Group (NYSE:RVLV), the California online fashion retailer. It went public on June 6 at $18 a share. It's up 103% through June 13, an annualized total return of more than 5,000%. The odds of it delivering a 5,000% return in one year is slim to none. Will it be one of the IPO stocks from the first half of 2019 to falter most in the second half? It very well could be. However, with 65 pricings through June 13, it's possible that other 2019 IPOs such as Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) and Uber (NYSE:UBER) could also fit the bill. New Fortress Energy (NFE) Source: Shutterstock New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ:NFE) went public on January 30 at $14 a share selling $280 million of its stock. It lost 6.6% on its first day of trading and is down 31% through June 13. New Fortress takes diesel and heavy fuel oil and turns it into natural gas or gas-fired power. It sells these two items to customers who sign long-term, take-or-pay contracts. Utilizing an integrated liquid natural gas (LNG) production and delivery model, it plans to take advantage of the gap that exists between the supply and demand of LNG. New Energy Holdings is controlled by Fortress Investment co-CEO Wes Edens, a 57-year-old billionaire who owns a piece of both the Milwaukee Bucks and Aston Villa in the Premier League. Edens believes that U.S. natural gas exports to countries that have historically relied on oil imports to generate power are a winning proposition, which is why he co-founded it in 2014 and took it public in January. New Energy lost $36.5 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2018, 164% higher than its operating loss in the same period a year earlier. To be successful, it's going to burn through a lot of capital. I don't see it going well. However, he's a billionaire and I'm not, so you never know. Gossamer Bio (GOSS)  Source: Shutterstock Gossamer Bio (NASDAQ:GOSS) went public on February 7 at $16 a share selling $276 million of its stock. It gained 12.1% on its first day of trading and is up 19% through June 13. The company, according to its prospectus, is "a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, acquiring, developing and commercializing therapeutics in the disease areas of immunology, inflammation and oncology. Our goal is to be an industry leader in each of these therapeutic areas and to enhance and extend the lives of patients suffering from such diseases." It's an admirable goal to be sure. Gossamer Bio initially expected to sell 14.4 million shares. However, serious interest from investors upped the number of shares sold to 17.3 million. It was the second biotech company of 2019 to go public at a valuation of more than $1 billion. In 2018, 58 biotechs went public, and only five were able to achieve a "unicorn" valuation. Gossamer is using the net proceeds to advance its best potential commercial drug — GB001 is a treatment for asthma — which is in Phase 2b clinical trials. In its first quarter as a public company, Gossamer Bio had no revenue and $34.0 million in operating expenses, compared to no revenue and $26.1 million in operating expenses in the same period a year earlier. Wouldn't it be wiser to invest in a biotech ETF or profitable biotech company than this IPO stock? Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)  Source: Shutterstock Levi Strauss & Co (NYSE:LEVI) went public on March 20 at $17 a share selling $623 million of its stock. It gained 31.8% on its first day of trading but has since given some of those gains back, up 21% through June 13. In March, before Levi Strauss going public, I suggested seven reasons why investors should steer clear of its IPO. LEVI stock has made me look silly through the first three months as a public company. CEO Chip Bergh acknowledged that its growth was broad-based across channels and regions. However, I'm not about to change my tune despite the fact the maker of jeans had a good quarterly report with revenues of $1.44 billion, 7% higher than a year earlier, and adjusted net income of $151 million, 81% higher than the same quarter a year earlier. Of the $623 million in shares sold to the public, most were by selling shareholders; only $121 million in net proceeds went to the company. Frankly, with the company planning to open almost 100 stores in 2019, I could see its debt situation getting worse. It finished the first quarter with net debt of $319.2 million, $20 million less than at the end of November. The company has $500 million in fixed-rate debt at 5.0% interest and $542 million in fixed-rate debt at 3.375% interest. All due in 2024 and beyond. A retail company as iconic as Levi Strauss should not have any debt on its books — even if it technically a recent IPO stock. Tradeweb (TW)  Source: Shutterstock Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ:TW) went public on April 3 at $27 a share selling $1.08 billion of its stock. It gained 32.6% on its first day of trading and is up 58% through June 13. Tradeweb operates electronic marketplaces for asset managers, hedge funds, insurance companies, and many other large financial institutions to trade various asset classes including equities, credit, and money markets. It has more than 2,500 clients operating in 62 countries around the world. Refinitiv, a company owned 45% by Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) and 55% by Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX), owns just less than 70% of Tradeweb. On May 8, Tradeweb announced solid Q1 2019 earnings with revenues up 10.2% to $186.8 million on adjusted net income of $52.2 million. Except for its market data segment, all areas of its business had double-digit revenue gains in the quarter. With zero debt and $362 million in cash on the balance sheet, I don't believe there's anything wrong with Tradeweb's business. I just feel like it's overvalued at 35 times cash flow and 46 times forward earnings. Luckin (LK) Source: Shutterstock Luckin Coffee (NASDAQ:LK) went public on May 16 at $17 a share selling $561 million of its stock. It gained 19.9% on its first day of trading; it's up 7.0% through June 13. Of all the IPO stocks on this list, Luckin is the one I'd be most wary of — primarily because it's trying to steal Starbucks' (NASDAQ:SBUX) thunder in China. Also, the coffee market in China continues to see new, larger entrants like Restaurant Brands International's (NYSE:QSR) Tim Hortons and others, enter the scene, making it doubly hard for Luckin to become profitable. It's important to remember that Luckin is less than two years old. Going public with a valuation over $5 billion, that's pretty rich for a company that lost $238 million in 2018 on just $125 million in revenue. If Luckin operated in South Africa, not China, would you still be enthusiastic about investing in a coffee business that loses $2 for every $1 of revenue? I highly doubt it. Revolve Group (RVLV) Source: Shutterstock Revolve Group, as I stated in the beginning, went public on June 6 at $18 a share. Despite doubling in price, it continues to receive a lot of positive attention from Wall Street professionals. On June 7, Citron Research tweeted that it expects to see Revolve stock hit $50 because of its use of technology and social media to acquire new customers profitably. Citron estimates that Revolve spends $100 to bring in $300 in revenue, a sign that it's got significant growth ahead of it. On June 12, Jim Cramer of CNBC jumped into the fray, suggesting that RVLG ought to be on investors' shopping list. "They've been consistently turning a profit for years now. This is not your typical red-hot IPO that's all about revenue growth with no concern for earnings," Cramer said on Mad Money. "The only negative is that their margins took a little hit in the first quarter, but that's because they rolled out their new, lower-price concept Superdown." If you look at Revolve's prospectus, it's easy to see what Cramer means. In 2018, Revolve had an operating profit of $41.8 million, about double its operating profit from a year earlier, on $498.7 million in revenue. That's an operating margin of 8.4%, 330 basis points higher than in 2017. With more than $30 million in cash at the end of March and zero debt along with a portfolio of 21 of its own brands, innovation seems to be Revolve's calling card. However, with a $2.7 billion market cap, investors are paying 84 times cash flow. By comparison, you can get Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) for 31 times cash flow despite the fact it's up 41% year to date through June 12. Beyond Meat (BYND) Source: Shutterstock Beyond Meat is a great product. I've eaten its burgers both at restaurants and at home. Every time's been an enjoyable, tasteful experience. So, you won't get any complaints from me about the quality. Long term, I can see it becoming huge. However, when you have no analysts recommending its stock, you know it's a valuation bubble just ready to pop. On June 12, Bernstein downgraded Beyond Meat from outperform to market perform with a $123 target price. Eight analysts are covering its stock at the moment with all eight giving BYND a hold. "The downgrade is driven by valuation considerations as the stock has traded in a highly volatile manner since its IPO likely due to its limited public float and is now trading at ~31x EV/NTM Sales, implying limited upside potential from a valuation perspective," wrote Bernstein's Alexia Howard. Like several of the stocks on this list, I believe that its stock can be bought later this year or early in 2020 at a much better entry point. At the time of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? 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| Gold Price Rally May Be Set to Resume Rally to Fresh 2019 Highs Posted: 13 Jun 2019 12:52 PM PDT Hits: 11 Gold Price Talking Points:
Looking for longer-term forecasts on Gold and Silver prices? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides. After a huge rally at the end of May and the beginning of June, gold prices have settled into an approximate $30 range over the past week. But it's not just gold prices: volatility has cooled across the board, with bonds, currencies, equities trading in tighter ranges in recent days. Following the Mexico tariff ceasefire at the end of last week, it feels as if traders are taking a collective sigh of relief ahead of the June Fed meeting next week. Now, with most of the week in the rearview mirror, traders are looking ahead to risks around the corner. Gold Volatility Starting to Increase AgainWith the June Fed meeting next week likely to signal the end of the Fed rate hike cycle and the start of the Fed rate cut cycle, traders have started to factor in greater uncertainty around gold prices – a good sign for bullion. Whereas other asset classes don't like increased volatility (signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc.), precious metals tend to benefit from periods of higher volatility as uncertainty increases the appeal of gold's and silver's safe haven appeal. GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (June 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)After pressing lower over the past several days, gold volatility (as measured by the Cboe's gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) has moved up back towards its June high, suggests that gold prices may be facing an easier environment in the near-term. Gold Price Pullback Mirrored Other EpisodesIn the month of June, we've been carefully watching the gold price rally. Last Wednesday, gold prices moved more than 2% above their daily 21-EMA for just the fifth time since the gold price bottom developed in Q3'19. In the four previous instances, gold prices averaged a 1-week return of -0.49%. As such, at the time it was noted that "the risk for exhaustion setting in again soon and cutting the rally short is increasing." After hitting a high of 1348.13 last Wednesday, June 5, when gold prices first moved more than 2% more than the daily 21-EMA, gold prices came down -0.81% to where they closed yesterday, Wednesday, June 12. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (April 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 2)
Now that the episode where the gold price move in excess of 2% of the daily 21-EMA signaled near-term exhaustion has behaved similar to the prior four episodes, then the healthy correction in gold prices may have run its course; the longer-term uptrend is still valid. Earlier this week it was noted that "former resistance now support appearing as the March 25 swing high at 1324.40 may be the first near-term support level followed by the daily 8-EMA at 1322.07." Indeed, this area around 1322.07/1324.40 held, exculpatory proof that former resistance has indeed become support, confirming the series of higher highs in the process. As such, if the near-term exhaustion condition is worked off, then the recent gold price consolidation may be coming to an end as well. With gold volatility rising once more, it seems increasingly likely that the next gold price move will be to the topside; the rally is set to continue. A break above the 1348.31 high set on June 7 would trigger a bullish breakout, with a measured move up to a new 2019 high at 1376.39. Only a move below 1319.87, recent consolidation support, would nullify the prospective bullish outlook. IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (June 13, 2019) (Chart 3)
Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 58.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.39 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.0% higher than yesterday and 2.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.8% higher than yesterday and 0.4% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests spot gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed spot gold trading bias. FX TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD and EUR/USD Posted: 13 Jun 2019 12:43 PM PDT Hits: 11 Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more. USD/CAD Price Chart – Loonie 120minIn this week's Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the Loonie, "breakdown has price testing the first major support pivot (1.3258) and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, we could see some price exhaustion here…Look for price exhaustion into the upper parallels for possible entries with a break of the lows targeting more significant support into the 1.32-handle.” USD/CAD rallied off that mark this week with the advance now targeting confluence resistance at 1.3357/63– a region defined by the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation extending off the May highs, the 38.2% retracement of recent sell-off, the May swing low and near-term up-channel resistance. Looking for failure / exhaustion heading into this zone with a break below channel support targeting weekly open support at 1.3238 and the 61.8% extension / lower parallel at ~1.32. New to Forex? Get started with our Beginners Trading Guide! USD/CAD Trader Sentiment
See how shifts in Loonie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment! EUR/USD Price Chart – Euro 120min
I highlighted this ascending pitchfork formation in this week's Euro Price Outlook while noting that the immediate risk was for a pullback towards the lower parallel. The pullback broke below confluence support at 1.1286 today and leaves price vulnerable to further losses near-term. That said, I'm on the lookout for downside exhaustion / long-entries heading into the 1.1250/56 support zone- a region defined by the Friday swing-low and the 38.2% retracement of the late-May advance. Interim resistance stands at the 61.8% retracement / weekly open at 1.1317/21 with a breach of the highs keeping the 1.1374 & 1.1393 resistance targets in view. Review my latest EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term Euro technical trade levels. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy -Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get princely from fx trading? The state is if you go from canadian forex, and light forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is distribution in forex 1 dollar river, netdania forex, cross sounding welfare of the forex system indicators, and stoppage the think fx strategy. We instrument win win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Oil Price Volatility Hints at Emerging Markets Fallout Risk Posted: 13 Jun 2019 12:40 PM PDT Hits: 16 TRADE WAR RISK THREATENS OIL & EMERGING MARKETS – TALKING POINTS
Oil prices are officially back in a bear market with crude oil dropping 21% since the commodity topped out near $66 per barrel on April 23. Crude continues to be exposed to downside, however, with oil price pressures revolving around the perils of intensifying US China trade war friction and the adverse impact on global GDP growth. Moreover, President Trump's use of tariffs as a negotiating tactic to broker more favorable trade deals – most recently with Mexico – has added another layer of uncertainty that could further destabilize global trade policy and economic growth, which remains a threat to risk assets. CRUDE OIL PRICE (INVERTED) VS CHINESE YUAN – CHART 1Hopes that China and the US will sort out their differences on trade and strike a deal appear to have vanished, which is reflected by spot USDCNH flirting with the taboo 7.0000 exchange rate. Owing to China's deteriorating fundamentals, the sharp decline in the Yuan has been mirrored by a steep drop in oil prices (as illustrated above in chart 1). This comes as little surprise considering the Asian economy is the largest contributor to global GDP growth and comprises roughly 15 percent of total oil consumption. As such, oil could experience additional downside while the forthcoming side effects from an enduring US China trade spat that drags corporate earnings, consumer spending, business investment and global GDP lower. EMERGING MARKETS VOLATILITY VS CRUDE OIL PRICE (INVERTED) – CHART 2
Also, there is a noticeable relationship between oil prices and emerging market volatility – measured by the Cboe Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEEM). The association between the two assets can be broadly explained by the heightened sensitivity emerging markets and oil have to global trade activity. In turn, emerging markets face contagion risk from economic weakness in China and developed markets like the US and Eurozone. Consequently, volatility in EM equities looks possible if slowing GDP growth and lower demand for crude weighs negatively on oil prices further. CRUDE OIL VOLATILITY VS EMERGING MARKETS (INVERTED) – CHART 3
Similarly, the price of oil is inversely related to oil volatility judging by the Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) which generally has a strong negative correlation to emerging markets stocks gauged by the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and is shown in chart 3. If sentiment remains damaged from slowing GDP growth fears while oil prices continue to tumble, oil volatility could spike and spook emerging markets investors. This would likely cause selling pressure in across the EM stock market which may be exacerbated by emerging markets volatility moving higher in response to lower oil prices (illustrated in chart 2). While the risk of EM fallout appears elevated due to collapsing oil prices, downside in crude could be limited if OPEC agrees to extend – or possibly accelerate – production cuts. The move would aim to counter the adverse impact on oil demand from slowing global growth, looking to restore supply and demand imbalances. RECOMMENDED READING: Crude Oil Trading Strategies and Tips Top 5 Emerging Market Currencies and How to Trade Them – Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX – Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get prosperous from fx trading? The serve is if you go from river forex, and promiscuous forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is farm in forex 1 symbol canadian, netdania forex, buy increase vantage of the forex scheme indicators, and account the mean fx strategy. We present follow win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Behind Boeing's Rare Bear Note Posted: 13 Jun 2019 12:28 PM PDT Hits: 8 A pair of oil tankers were reportedly attacked in the Gulf of Oman
Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 Oil Stocks and Gas Stocks to Buy: SLB, CVX, HES Posted: 13 Jun 2019 12:16 PM PDT Hits: 10 The big news overnight were reports that two energy tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf, near the critical Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. All eyes are on the Iranians, who are locked in a sanctions stalemate with the United States and have threatened to attack energy infrastructure in the region. For now, Tehran is denying responsibility. But traders on Wall Street are busily bidding up crude oil and energy stocks as recent bearishness driven by growing inventories fades fast. This follows Wednesday's 4% lurch lower in West Texas Intermediate, which was testing support near the $50-a-barrel level. For investors looking to take advantage of rising tensions — calling to memory the mining of the Persian Gulf in decades past — consider these four stocks:
Oil Stocks to Buy: Schlumberger (SLB)Shares of oilfield services provider Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) are bouncing off of support near the late-December lows, setting the stage for a challenge of the 50-day moving average. Such a move would be worth a gain of 11% from here. Shares were recently upgraded to "buy" by analysts at Stifel. The company will next report results on July 19 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of 35 cents per share on revenues of $8.1 billion. When the company last reported on April 18, earnings of 30 cents per share matched estimates on a 0.6% rise in revenues.
Philips 66 (PSX)Shares of oil stock Philips 66 (NYSE:PSX) are enjoying the formation of a solid base of support near the $85-a-share level and look ready for a push towards a combination of resistance near $87.50 — the confluence of its upper Bollinger Band, its 50-day moving average and its mid-May high. A breakout from here would put the mid-April high near $98 in play, which would be worth a gain of 14% from here. The company will next report results on July 26 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $2.35 on revenues of $26.9 billion. When the company last reported on April 30, earnings of 40 cents per share beat estimates by five cents.
Hess (HES)Shares of Hess (NYSE:HES) are challenging their 200-day moving average after finding support near its early March lows. Watch for a third attempt at the $67.50 level, which would be worth a gain of roughly 17% from here. Hess is an independent oil and gas producer that has seen its shares churn sideways for more than a decade. Nothing like the specter of another conflict in the Middle East to break the malaise. The company will next report results on July 24 before the bell. Analysts are looking for a break-even results on revenues of $1.6 billion. When the company last reported on April 25, earnings of nine cents per share beat estimates by 36 cents on a 15% rise in revenues.
Chevron (CVX)Shares of Chevron (NYSE:CVX) are breaking up and out of a three-month consolidation range after finding support under their 200-day moving average. Watch for another challenge of the $125-a-share level that has bounded its range since late 2017. Analysts at Citigroup recently resumed coverage of the stock with a buy rating. The company will next report results on July 26 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $2.02 per share on revenues of $41.5 billion. When the company last reported on April 26, earnings of $1.39 beat estimates by six cents on a 6.8% decline in revenues. As of this writing, William Roth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD Posted: 13 Jun 2019 12:14 PM PDT Hits: 9 EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD Talking Points:
It's been a busy summer so far as the month of June has seen some workable volatility across a number of asset classes. At the source of much of this volatility is expectations around the Federal Reserve, and this is related to a theme that showed up in Q4 of last year. In the opening days of October, Jerome Powell remarked that he felt that the Fed was 'a long way' from the neutral rate, implying that the Fed had plans for more hikes in 2019. Risk markets did not like this at all, and in short-order US equities had turned with aggression and continued to sell-off. It was the December Fed meeting that was a real mess, as the bank held to a hawkish forecast for 2019, looking for another two hikes in the coming year. This extended that risk-off move, and it wasn't until Fed commentary began shifting in a dovish direction that equity strength began to show. At the March rate decision, the FOMC eliminated those two dots looking for 50 basis points of rate hikes in 2019. And this helped the risk trade move-higher; and that theme lasted all the way into the Fed's next rate decision in the opening day of May in which Chair Powell, once again, attempted to strike a tone of stability by not committing to future rate cuts. This is when the most recent round of risk aversion came back-in, and that theme lasted all the way until Powell's comments last Tuesday, which were more dovish in nature; and this helped US stocks to claw back a large portion of those prior May losses. Will the Fed continue to get more dovish at next week's FOMC rate decision? Or, perhaps more importantly – will they meet market expectations for how dovish they should be? That might be difficult at the moment given the fact that expectations have moved towards three full 25 basis point cuts by the end of this year. In the US Dollar, this impact has been noticeable. After clinging to a bullish trend for much of the period since last August, USD bears have come back to push the currency-lower throughout June. Prices have found support at a key level of confluence on the chart, taken from around the 96.50 area. US Dollar Daily Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley Notably, the longer-term look around USD has shifted. While the currency was trading in an ascending triangle coming into Q2, the posturing around the highs has built-in another formation, and this one points in the opposite direction. A rising wedge will often be approached with the aim of bearish reversals, and that's what's started to show on the weekly chart of USD. US Dollar Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley EURUSD Bullish Prospects?Going along with the potential for a larger breakdown in USD is the prospect of a bullish move in EURUSD. This would be similar to themes noticed in Q4 of 2015 as well as most of 2017 and Q1 of 2018. Sure, Europe isn't in a healthy spot. But that much has been known for sometime; more important is what's left to price-in, and if we do have a more dovish Fed and a more bearish US Dollar, the topside of EURUSD can remain as attractive. EURUSD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley GBPUSDI had looked at this earlier today and the same type of backdrop as above with EURUSD applies. On a short-term basis, a range has developed in the pair, and this could be traded like any other range, perhaps with a bullish bias for those that want to look for longer-term moves of strength in the pair, or weakness in USD. GBPUSD Weekly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley USDCAD Bounce From Two-Month Lows, Resistance Potential At Prior SupportI came into this week looking at the long side on USDCAD and prices have since posed a push up to a key area of potential resistance. This zone runs from 1.3361-1.3385, and a hold of resistance there opens the door for short-side strategies in the pair. USDCAD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley AUDUSD Breakdown PotentialI've been tracking USD-strength in AUDUSD after last week's flare-up to resistance in the pair. Aussie had the peculiar showing of a 'rate cut rally' and this was likely more resultant of that spate of weakness in the US Dollar. But, as looked at in this week's FX Setups – a key zone of resistance soon came into play, and since then prices have pushed right back down towards the lows. This keeps the door open for deeper breakdown potential, particularly for strategies based around USD-strength. AUDUSD Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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