Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/JPY Trading in a Sideways Pattern
Gold Price, Crude Oil, Dollar & S&P 500
Asian Stocks Applaud US-China Trade Truce, FX Not Quite So Sure
Wilting AUD Slips Further As China Caixin PMi Misses Key 50 Level
AUD and Stocks Up on US-China Trade War Truce, But for How Long?

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/JPY Trading in a Sideways Pattern

Posted: 01 Jul 2019 03:07 AM PDT

EUR/JPY Price Outlook

EUR/JPY Charts and Analysis
EUR/JPY price at is highest level in nearly six weeks.

Have you checked our latest trading guides for USD and Gold? Download for free Q3 Main Currencies and Commodities Forecasts

EUR/JPY– Higher but Without Momentum

On June 21, EUR/JPY rebounded from 120.95 and started to trade higher. The buyers showed on Wednesday more power and sent the price to close above 122.52.

On Wednesday also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointed higher breaking above 50 showing the buyer's intention to start an uptrend, however; the oscillator remained flat after, indicating the uptrend's lack of impulse.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here's the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (NOV10, 2016 – JUl 1, 2019) Zoomed OUT

EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (Mar 7, 2019- JUL 1, 2019) Zoomed IN

Looking at the daily chart we notice EUR/JPY opened today with an upward gap at 123.34 printing its highest levels in nearly six weeks, also breaking above the neckline of the double bottom pattern located at 123.18, however; the price slipped back and closed the gap.

On Friday, EUR/JPY closed the weekly session above 122.52 moving to the higher trading zone 122.52 – 124.40. The price could rally towards the higher end of this zone as long as it remains above 122.52 although, the weekly resistance levels underlined on the chart needs to be watched closely. See the chart for to know more about the next trading zones and the resistances if the price closes above 124.40.

On the other hand, a close below the lower end of the aforementioned trading zone might see the price even lower towards 121.25. The weekly support levels highlighted on the chart would be worth monitoring.

Just getting started? See our Beginners' Guide for FX traders

EUR/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (June 3, 2019 – JUL 1, 2019)

Looking at the daily chart we notice on June 21 EUR/JPY rebounded then started an upward trend creating higher highs with higher lows. A continuation of this uptrend may require a break above the May 21 peak at 123.75, this might cause the price to rally towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 123.25. However, the daily resistance underlined on the chart should be considered. See the chart find out more about more about the key levels if the price breaks above mentioned levels.

The pair might correct lower if breaks below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 122.15 this could send the price towards the June 25 low 121.65 although the daily support marked on the chart needs to be considered. See the chart if the selloff continues below the aforementioned mentioned low.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

2019-07-01 09:39:00

Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.

Gold Price, Crude Oil, Dollar & S&P 500

Posted: 01 Jul 2019 01:12 AM PDT

Technical Highlights:

Gold price broke out of multi-year wedge, suggest big rally
Crude oil lacking some clarity, watch risk trends
US Dollar broken wedge points to 2011 trend-line
S&P 500 could find opposition again in second-half

Check out the intermediate-term market forecasts and educational content on the Trading Guides page.

Gold price broke out of multi-year wedge, suggest big rally

Since 2014 price swings in gold had become increasingly smaller, and with that volatility dropped to extremely low long-term levels. That period of low volatility looks to have ended with the recent breakout from the multi-year wedge.

The weekly breakout on the week ending June 21 put the price of gold firmly outside of the wedge and above highs going back several years. Looking at the size and duration of the pattern the move should equate to over $300, giving gold a measured move target of $1650-1700.

This will of course take time, but as long as we don't see a move back inside the wedge the broader path of least resistance should remain up. Given the extended move to end last quarter we may see some backing-and-filling, possibly a retest of the zone in the 1340/60s before moving higher. A break back inside the wedge would revert a bullish outlook to neutral.

Gold Price Weekly Chart (BIG breakout)

To see the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook for Bullion, check out the Q3 Gold Forecast.

Crude oil lacking some clarity, watch risk trends

Crude oil doesn't have the greatest technical clarity at this time. Risk trends and geopolitical developments will continue to be big drivers.

If stocks remain firm in the second-half, and that is a big 'if', then oil is likely to hold up and could even further a rally up to the 2008 trend-line. However, if we see stocks drop materially then pressure is likely to push oil lower and put pressure on the slope running over from July 2016 and the trend-line off the February 2016 low. At this time, those lines are in confluence near $47. A break below there could lead to considerable weakness.

Crude oil Weekly Chart (direction a little unclear, big support down below)

See what drivers and technical factors are expected to move oil in the coming months in the Q3 Crude Oil Forecast.

US Dollar broken wedge points to 2011 trend-line

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke a rising wedge formation a couple of weeks back, which gives the Dollar big downside potential. There are short-term support levels to watch along the way, 95.03, 93.81 are a couple of the more meaningful levels, but the broader target is for a move to the 2011 trend-line currently down in the 92s. To negate the bearish break a recovery beyond the year high at 98.37 will be needed.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart (Broke Wedge, Eyeing 2011 t-line)

The US Dollar didn't move much during the last quarter of 2018, check out what could make that change in Q3 USD Forecast.

S&P 500 could find opposition again in second-half

It's been hard being a bear in stocks, but another swoon could come soon off record levels again as we've seen twice since the beginning of 2018. There is a broad Reverse Symmetrical Triangle pattern (RST) in the works, with its higher-highs and lower-lows marking growing instability in the bull market since the 2009 low. If the pattern comes to exert full bearish potential, then it would end in a much larger than sell-off than anything we've seen since 2008.

Even if the pattern doesn't bring an extreme down-move, the market hasn't been kind to those who pay up for breakouts to new highs, and it is reasonable to conclude that we could see another downdraft of some type in the coming months. Watch the top-side trend-line from January 2018, it is in confluence with the psychological level of 3k; this would be a good spot for a top to form.

Also, it's worth continuing to pay attention to the Russell 2000, as it is severely lagging the broader market. As an index consisting of higher beta stocks it is showing that risk appetite isn't particularly strong even if the major indices are trading at or around record levels.

FAANG has also been a laggard, but to a lesser degree; this group of bull market darlings (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) could also be showing cracks in investor sentiment. Keep an eye out especially for Google which had a 'hole-in-the-wall' type breakaway gap on its last earnings announcement; it has a similar look to Facebook last July before the broader market topped in September.

S&P 500 Weekly Chart (Broke Wedge, Eyeing 2011 t-line)

With global stocks having rebounded, see where our analysts see stocks headed in the Q3 Equities Forecast.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-07-01 08:00:00

Asian Stocks Applaud US-China Trade Truce, FX Not Quite So Sure

Posted: 30 Jun 2019 10:09 PM PDT

Asian Stocks Talking Points:

Chinese equity investors liked what they heard on trade between Washington and Beijing
However, the hard numbers from both China and Japan were disappointing
Trade conflict is still sapping confidence and lowering output

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of your favorite currency's chances at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

Most Asian stocks surged into Monday, boosted by an accord reached between Beijing and Washington at the weekend's Group of 20 summit in Osaka. China and the US have agreed not to levy any further tariffs on each other's goods.

This is a long way short of any sort of trade deal, of course, and the economic data released throughout the session were weak. Still investors seem inclined to cling to the positive G20 news.

The Shanghai Composite was up by 1.8%, with the Nikkei 225 up by a similar amount in the middle of the Tokyo afternoon. The ASX 200 climbed 0.5%, with only Hong Kong's Hang Seng missing out on gains.

These gains came despite the release of a Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan showing confidence at domestic manufacturers near three-year lows. There was more bad news from China, where private sector manufacturing output was found to have contracted in June, as indeed had larger, state-run concerns according to data released on Sunday.

Growth sensitive currencies failed to share stock markets' enthusiasm for events in Osaka. The Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar were both lower, possibly undermined by that weaker Chinese data. The Yuan made gains however, as did crude oil prices, at least initially. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq backed a six-month extension to production cuts from OPEC last week.

USDJPY meanwhile has broken above its previous daily-chart downtrend channel, but has hardly done so conclusively yet.

The pair has failed so far to top its previous significant high and investors should probably be wary of reduced liquidity across the currency complex as the week goes on.

The US Fourth of July break is of course coming up, but focus for the rest of Monday will probably be on German employment data and the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and employment figures from the US.

APAC Stocks Resources For Traders

Whether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free.

— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-07-01 04:51:00

Wilting AUD Slips Further As China Caixin PMi Misses Key 50 Level

Posted: 30 Jun 2019 07:08 PM PDT

AUD/USD was already fading as markets doubted the US-China trade truce’s substance. News that Chinese manufacturing output contracted last month didn’t help.
2019-07-01 01:48:00

AUD and Stocks Up on US-China Trade War Truce, But for How Long?

Posted: 30 Jun 2019 04:42 PM PDT

G20 SUMMIT, TRUMP XI MEETING, US-CHINA TRADE WAR, GLOBAL GROWTH – TALKING POINTS

G20 summit in Osaka, Japan concludes with US-China trade truce
Constructive talks will continue, though relations are still fragile
Will a US-China trade deal be enough to reverse global slowdown?

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars along with S&P 500 rallied early into Monday's trading session after the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. US President Donald Trump met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Both leaders agreed to an economic ceasefire and have returned to the negotiating table. Markets rejoiced on the news and it led to a surge in risk appetite and a wave of capital inflow into cycle-sensitive assets.

S&P 500 Futures, NZD, AUD Spike From Risk-on Tilt After US-China Trade War Truce

However, investors may find it prudent not to get overly excited. Both parties still have to find a way to reconcile fundamental differences and reach a consensus. Unless an agreement can be reached, Beijing risks enduring a tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods. Were this to occur, China would almost certainly retaliate with its own tariffs against the US and could force Chinese officials to use other leverage.

In a best-case scenario, if US-China trade tensions are reconciled and a deal is made, it will not likely occur quickly or easily, and markets may find themselves exhaustively oscillating between risk aversion and optimism. Furthermore, the fundamental outlook still remains bleak with global PMIs showing increasing weakness and central banks halting or reversing their rate hike cycles.

Short-term optimism may be amplified by the recent meeting between Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Un. Both parties are going to restart nuclear negotiations, with the US President saying he is willing to invite Kim to Washington. The anti-risk Japanese Yen's suffering will likely be extended as a result of what appears to be a temporary defusing of nuclear tensions. However, Washington's sporadic nature when it comes to policy will still keep traders on their toes.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-06-30 23:00:00