Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast

Posted: 14 Jul 2019 02:21 AM PDT

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast:

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Fundamental Forecast: Earnings Arrive

After doubling down on a dovish policy path, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 jogged to record highs. With trade wars out of focus and monetary policy effectively locked in ahead of July's meeting, earnings season will look to take the reigns as the driving fundamental force behind the three major US indices. In the week ahead, the country's biggest banks will kick off the start of the season and could highlight the impact of a lower Federal Funds rate.

As a key factor in determining a financial institution's profit margin, the prospect of a lower Federal Funds rate could result in tempered forecasts for upcoming quarters which may momentarily weigh on share prices in the financial sector. Consequently, the Dow Jones will take its cues from Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday as the two banks make up over 8% of the Index.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (May – July) (Chart 1)

On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 will take its cues from the first FAANG member to report – Netflix (NFLX). Netflix and its FAANG companions are afforded significant influence on tech sentiment and a string of poor earnings from the group could depress the outlook for the whole sector. To that end, Netflix will be an important barometer for the rest of the group – but new entrants to the streaming space may cloud the company's outlook. Check out @PeterHanksFX for equity coverage and earnings insight.

Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (May – July) (Chart 2)

Check out our NEW Q3 Forecasts for equities, Gold, oil and more.

DAX 30 Fundamental Forecast

While the US markets have a full plate, the DAX 30 may find itself longing for drivers. With an exceedingly sparse economic calendar, the German equity index may derive influence from Chinese GDP data on Monday and economic survey expectations on Tuesday. Further, the Index's statistically significant positive correlation with the S&P 500 may see US earnings extend their influence across the Atlantic.

DAX 30 Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (June – July) (Chart 3)

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-07-14 09:00:00

Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.
On this page you can manage StartUp Bonus size for your clients. StartUp Bonus is a company’s promotion aimed to help you gain more potential clients by offering them through different media (offline and online) opportunity to join InstaForex and receive StartUp Bonus (No Deposit Bonus) for trading without any risks. As a partner you will receive commissions from trading of each referred client both before and after first deposit. Your clients can receive StartUp Bonus from InstaForex via this page:
Bonus Startup $1000
Trade 100 Bonus

US Dollar May Rise as Worried Markets Search For Safe Harbor

Posted: 13 Jul 2019 09:21 AM PDT

US DOLLAR FORECAST: NEUTRAL

US Dollar impressively resilient despite increasingly dovish Fed
Markets may be ready to consider why policy easing approaches
Defensive repositioning might boost haven US Dollar demand

See the latest US Dollar technical and fundamental forecast to find out what will drive prices in Q3!

Financial markets were treated to about as dovish of a Federal Reserve as they could hope for last week. Comments from Chair Powell in biannual Congressional testimony as well as the text of minutes from June's meeting of the policy-setting FOMC committee appeared to confirm that at least some easing is imminent. The US Dollar dutifully fell alongside bond yields.

US DOLLAR RESILIENT DESPITE INCREASINGLY DOVISH FED

The magnitude of the move was tellingly modest however. The Greenback edged down toward the middle of the range it has traced out since late May against a basket of its major counterparts (Euro, Yen, Pound and Aussie Dollar), but nothing more. In fact, the overall uptrend from late-February lows remains conspicuously intact. That's quite impressive since markets now favor three 25bps rate cuts before year-end.

An obvious question follows: how much more room does USD have to fall? Indeed, it is possible that markets have priced in about as much stimulus as could be reasonably expected, and probably more. Three cuts along with the unwind of the QT balance sheet reduction effort – all before the calendar turns to 2020 – amounts to a lot of accommodation in a hurry. There may not be scope to price in significantly more.

Meanwhile, there seems to be a clear disconnect between the markets' reaction to the likelihood of monetary policy support and the reasons for it. Investors seem all too happy to celebrate the former without much thought about the latter. Were they to consider that the Fed's defensive posture reflects an increasingly ominous slowdown in global growth, their rosy disposition might soon sour.

RISK AVERSION MAY BOOST HAVEN US DOLLAR DEMAND

The week ahead brings ample opportunities for a rethink. US retail sales and Chinese GDP data are expected to show slowdown, highlighting the damaging effects of the trade war between the world's top two economies. Chair Powell is also due to speak again – this time at the Bank of France – and seems likely to sound the alarm anew. The Beige Book survey of regional US growth conditions may also be worrying.

On the geopolitical front, the G7 group of finance ministers will meet to discuss the deteriorating global outlook and the UK will probably say that Brexit-at-all-costs enthusiast Boris Johnson will be its next prime minister. As if that were not enough, a steady stream of second-quarter corporate earnings reports will give the world's top companies an opportunity to worry aloud about broadening malaise worldwide.

Pondering such things has led to markets to price in an ever-larger Fed rescue effort, which has underpinned sentiment in recent weeks. Once they've run out of room to continue, an impetus to de-risk portfolios may begin to take center stage as the dominant driver of market-wide price action. This process is likely to put an outsized premium on liquidity, and on this score the US Dollar is unrivaled.

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivakon Twitter

US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
2019-07-13 16:00:00