Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- GBP/JPY Price Outlook: British Pound May Keep Losing Mojo
- EUR Softer Ahead of ECB, IFO Figures Continue to Show Weakness
- EURUSD May Break Through Critical Support After ECB Rate Decision
- Dollar Run Slows Despite Growth Skew, Euro Readies for the ECB
- EURUSD and EURCHF In the ECB Rate Decision Crosshairs
- Aussie Flirting with Bearish Reversal
- Gold Prices to Benefit from Threat of Trade, Currency War
- AUD/USD Downtrend at Support Before RBA Speech, Tesla Shares Sink
- EUR/USD Price Volatility Spikes Ahead of ECB & Fed Meetings
- FB, TSLA Earnings to Drive Stock Sentiment
| GBP/JPY Price Outlook: British Pound May Keep Losing Mojo Posted: 25 Jul 2019 03:07 AM PDT Hits: 8 GBP/JPY Price Forecast
See our free trading guide to help build confidence when you trade on JPY, USD and other main currencies Download for free our latest Q3 trading guides GBP/JPY – Back to the Sideways MoveOn July 15 GBP/JPY continued its downside move and on the following days printed new multi-month low at 133.85 . However, the price rallied after and Yesterday closed above 135.00 handle. Alongside this, on July 17 the Relative Strength Index (RSI) U-turned from below 30 towards 35 then remained flat after, emphasizing the sellers losing momentum on one hand, and the buyers unable to be in charge on the other. Just getting started? See our Beginners' Guide for FX traders GBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (July 25, 2017 – JULY 25, 2019) Zoomed outGBP/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (May 23 – JULY 25, 2019) Zoomed IN
Looking at the daily chart we notice last week GBP/JPY entered the lower trading zone 133.40 – 133.55 and stuck after in a trendless move. Yesterday, the pair printed its highest level in a week however, failed to test the high end of the current trading zone. Therefore, if the buyers were successful to force a close above the high end of the zone, this may lead the price towards 136.40. Although, the weekly resistance level underlined on the chart (zoomed in) should be kept in focus. On the flip-side, any failure to close above the high end of the zone this could send the price towards the low end. However, the weekly support level underscored on the chart needs to be monitored. See the chart (zoomed in) to know more about the next trading zone with the key support levels, if the sellers continue leading the price lower. Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here's the #1 Mistake That Traders Make GBP/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (JuLY 4 – July 25, 2019)
Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice on July 18 GBP/JPY rebounded from 133.85 then after traded without a clear direction creating lower lows with higher highs. Hence a break of this level (the weekly support) may press the pair to the downside sending the price towards 133.00. However, the end of the aforementioned trading zone needs to be considered. See the chart to find out more about the next significant support if the selloff continues below these levels. In turn, a break above the July 10 high at 136.06 – the pair highest level in two weeks – may cause a rally towards 137.00. Nonetheless, the July 9 high with the weekly resistance level marked on the chart should be watched closely. Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi 2019-07-25 09:46:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EUR Softer Ahead of ECB, IFO Figures Continue to Show Weakness Posted: 25 Jul 2019 01:51 AM PDT Hits: 10 Talking Points:
Join our analyst Nick Cawley for live coverage of the ECB rate decision meeting at 1130 GMT The Eurozone continues to show weakness as business confidence in Germany suffers another blow. The common currency was feeling the heat of the rate decision this morning as it traded lower against most G10 currencies. EURUSD May Break Through Critical Support After ECB Rate Decision EURUSD was trading mostly unchanged heading into the European open but the Euro bears managed to regain control and pushed the pair close to the 1.1128 support line in anticipation of German IFO figures to be released, ahead of the ECB rate decision meeting. EURGBP was losing some of the gains it had been steadily making since the beginning of May, but this was partly due to a rebound in sterling (GBP) as traders continue to digest the news about Boris Johnson's election as PM. The pair was trading at month-lows of 0.8920 at the start of the session. Business climate in Germany for the month of July was 95.7 well below expectations of 97.0, and down from the previous month's figure of 97.4. Current sentiment continues to show weakness in the Germany economy falling below 100 to 99.4, whilst future expectations were down to 95.7. These lacklustre figures come on the back of weakening PMI figures released yesterday, where manufacturing PMI continued to fall further below the 50 line, falling two points from 45.0 to 43.1, hitting an 84-month low amidst fears that slowing growth and trade disruption could push the country into a recession. The economic boom seen in the last ten years has come to an end leading into a sideways movement that could result in a downturn. German Bund yields are trading at their lowest level ever, with the latest round of 10-year bonds offering a yield of minus 0.38%, down from minus 0.24% in June. The lowering yields come amid fears of a global economic slowdown which has been pushing prices of highly rated bonds higher, meaning that investors who purchase these bonds and hold them to maturity are likely to make a loss. Bond prices have been soaring in the last few months on the back of expectations that the ECB would reintroduce monetary stimulus coupled with a host of negative data from Germany, which has kept bond yields heading lower. All four PMIs across the Eurozone failed to reach expectations, signalling one of the weakest expansions in recent years, and giving up the mild gains seen in the month of June. The case for a rate cut from the ECB is strengthening but it is unlikely that a cut will come in today's meeting, with expectations that Mario Draghi will announce the terms of a new round of QE, cementing the basis for a 10 bps cut to come in September if economic conditions do not improve. Recommended ReadingEurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters – Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor KEY TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst To contact Daniela, email her at Daniela.Sabin@ig.com Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EURUSD May Break Through Critical Support After ECB Rate Decision Posted: 24 Jul 2019 11:46 PM PDT Hits: 8 ECB RATE DECISION, EURUSD FORECAST– TALKING POINTS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! APAC RECAPEarly into Thursday's Asia Pacific trading hours, the Australian Dollar suffered a blow after RBA Governor Philip Lowe announced the central bank is prepared to ease policy further if necessary. He also said that he is unlikely to consider a hike until inflation is seen returning to the RBA's target. Given the current trajectory for global growth, that could be a long time. ECB RATE DECISION: WHAT TO EXPECTOvernight index swaps are pricing in a less-than-even chance of a rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting. However, this in no way suggests that there is limited scope for downside moves for EURUSD. Market participants will be keenly watching for dovish commentary or hints of how policymakers are feeling about reinforcing accommodative policy whether that be through the rate cuts or the reintroduction of QE. At a meeting in Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Mario Draghi hinted at using these policy measures to boost economic activity and tepid inflation. Eurozone data has been tending to underperform relative to economists' estimates. Between wrestling with Brexit, Italy and US trade threats, the Eurozone has also had to contend with its own sluggish growth prospects which have left producers and consumers with a pessimistic outlook. EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSISAs forecasted, Eurozone PMI data underwhelmed markets and EURUSD suffered, though the pair stopped just short of breaking below critical support. The long wick indicated that market participants wanted to go lower but follow through was lacking in large part due to traders' trepidation in committing capital prior to the ECB announcement. EURUSD Flirts Along Lower Lip but Fails To Breach However, if the ECB's outlook spooks markets, EURUSD may just have the momentum it needs to break through support with lasting follow through. The pair could aim to test the two-year low at 1.1023, considering breaking below its predecessor at 1.1105 seems fairly likely. The fundamental outlook suggests as conditions worsen, a premium will be put on liquidity and will result in capital pouring into USD and pressuring the pair. Is Capitulation Inevitable?
EURUSD TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Dollar Run Slows Despite Growth Skew, Euro Readies for the ECB Posted: 24 Jul 2019 09:57 PM PDT Hits: 7 Growth Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Is the US an Economic Oasis in a Global Slowdown?If we were to take stock of the global winds, it would seem that the somewhat contradictory views of US President Donald Trump are proving correct. On one point, his assessment that other currencies are being proactively devalued is suspect, but his unrelenting pressure on the Fed to retaliate seems like it will inevitably catch traction thanks to the pressure the market is bringing to bear on the central bank. The trouble aside this policy relief would suggest aside, Trump has also suggested that the US economy is doing exceedingly well – particularly against its largest counterparts. As disjointed as that may be, recent data seems to support that claim as well, at least through a surface level interpretation of the data on hand. Following the IMF’s updated growth forecasts on Tuesday – which showed the global GDP forecast for 2019 dipped 0.1 percentage points to 3.2 percent while the United States’ own outlook was increased 0.3 percentage points to 1.6 percent – the PMIs offered up a picture of the key regions for the most most recent month. Reflecting the same divergence, the US composite reading ticked higher from 51.5 to 51.6 (notably with manufacturing dropping to a reading of stagnation). In contrast, the Euro-area’s composite dropped -0.7 ppt to 51.5 while Japan’s may have nudged higher (0.3 ppt) but held firmly is contractionary territory with a 49.6 reading. Typically, the forthcoming 2Q US GDP reading would be the most market moving economic update of the bunch, but the market seems to be putting a premium on the the forecast element, especially as performance divergences in the twilight of the stretched risk environment. Chart of Dow Index and US 12-Month Rolling GDP (Monthly) With this contrast in growth readings, the fundamental gap may be catching traction but the relative performance of US assets doesn’t seem to be enjoying a linear response. Where the Dollar managed a meaningful resurgence Tuesday on the IMF’s projections, the favorable PMI print rendered little appetite for the Greenback. It would not be unreasonable to expect the same hesitancy with Friday’s US GDP reading with its peers not due their own updates until subsequent weeks. Further, relative growth only goes so far when the rest of the market is barely keeping its head above water. Following this line of speculative appetite, demand for US assets versus rest of world similarly showed little ability to capitalize with the Dow’s performance relative to the VEU All World ex-US ETF offered no progress. Chart of Dow Index Overlaid with VEU World Equities ex US ETF
Monetary Policy Will Dominant the Horizon, At Least BrieflyLooking out over the next 24 hours – and through the next week – a shift in focus is due. Though general readings of growth are still very important, the event risk supports heavier influence to be found through monetary policy. With the currency session, we are due the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate decision. The world’s second largest central bank is not expected to alter its current policy mix, but that doesn’t mean a hold will be completely overlooked. Despite the general anticipation of a measured pace from this group, swaps show the market is still pricing in a healthy probability (just shy of 40 percent) of a 10 basis point cut at this meeting. Through year’s end the there is vigorous debate over how aggressive the central bank will be with its easing, but the outlook spreads from 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points worth of cuts. Probability of ECB Rate Cuts Through Year End
Beyond what the ECB does here and now, considerable attention must be afforded to their guidance moving forward. While a cut or revival of QE is unlikely at this month’s meeting, it is still seen as a very high probability this year. Circumstances are such that economic struggle and tepid inflation offers up clear leeway to loosen the reins. Further, rhetoric from the bank has clearly supported the notion of a further dovish shift when it the open QE program was only capped this past December and a TLTRO (targeted long-term refinancing operation) was put into play earlier this year. Chose your outlet for this change of standings wisely. Though EURUSD may look primed at a three-month range low just above 1.1100, the anticipation of Friday’s US GDP and Wednesday’s FOMC decision may ultimately make for a deflated follow through. Chart of EURUSD (Daily)
Sterling Bounces Despite PM Johnson Installing Strong Brexit Voices in CabinetIf we were looking for the biggest surprise between fundamental development and market response this past session, it would have to be a title given to the Sterling. The British Pound, on an equally-weighted basis, posted its biggest single-day rally since May 3rd. Yet, is this a reliable turning point for a currency that has dropped steadily for nearly three straight months? The jump followed the transfer of power over the Conservative Party and United Kingdom over to Boris Johnson. Some clarity this necessary decision before both the UK and EU negotiators can return to the table in earnest is something of a relief. That said, the uncertainty of who is directing the ship is readily replaced with the uncertainty derived from Johnson’s willingness to withdrawal without an economic plan in place. Chart of Pound Index and 1-Day Rate of Change (Daily)
The Sterling jumped across the board this past session further despite the news that the new PM has replaced 18 of the 29 Cabinet ministers with materially more aggressive Brexit voices. Raising the probability of a ‘no deal’ outcome is a serious risk so says the IMF, Bank of England, global central banks, even the UK government itself. That said, I look upon a move like the EURGBP head-and-shoulders pattern with a deep sense of skepticism. Between a questionable lift for the Pound and the uncertainty with the ECB for the Euro, there is far more risk here than potential. Chart of EURGBP with 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages (Daily)
Trade Wars and Earnings Are Still Active in the BackgroundOutside of the influence of growth forecasts and monetary policy, the third principal theme of late – trade wars – was relegated to ancillary readings. Reports that the US and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting in person is as lower a boundary as can be set. The overtures between the US and Europe are of greater interest and concern. If the ECB steps up its already-aggressive easing policy, it would very likely prompt the US President to again cry foul. Meanwhile, we cannot forget about the White House review of the Commerce Department’s findings on auto tariffs with a time frame out until mid-November nor EU leaders warning their willingness and preparation to retaliate against the US should the country slap aggressive tariffs against the regional character – yet another EURUSD complication. Meanwhile, earnings will contribute to the trade conversation. This past session’s Ford and Boeing updates would reflect upon the health of trade. The auto manufacturer is dealing with artificial foreign demand curbs but it is lingering threat of a full-scale disruption through auto tariffs that should truly concern us. In addition to trade wars, growth will be a theme these corporate reports will reflect upon particularly through the likes of Caterpillar (CAT). Further, speculative heft should not be overlooked with the likes of Amazon and Google ahead, even though Facebook after-hours didn’t generate the same level of friction as Netflix did a week ago. We discuss all of this and more in today’s Trading Video. Chart of FAANG Index – FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX and Google (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-25 03:00:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EURUSD and EURCHF In the ECB Rate Decision Crosshairs Posted: 24 Jul 2019 09:21 PM PDT Hits: 7 EURUSD Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in EURUSD, EURGBP and other key Euro crosses alongside a host of other liquid FX pairsusing the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. The Weight of the ECB Rate DecisionThrough Thursday’s session, top scheduled event risk is clearly the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision. As has been the case regularly of late, the influence from the event is founded more through the market’s speculative positioning than the certainty of outcome. In fact, the world’s second largest central bank is expected to leave its policy mix unchanged with the deposit rate kept at -0.4 percent and unorthodox monetary policy reserved to the targeted long-term refinancing operation (T-LTRO) program initiated a few months ago. That said, the market’s speculative appetites are jumping ahead of a practical pace of measured adjustment. Swaps are pricing in a near 40 percent chance of a -10 basis point cut at this meeting and near certainty of such a move by year’s end. Further talk in the open market of a return to the traditional QE program has gained explicit traction. This begs the question: how much discount is afforded to a dovish view already? Watch the ECB rate decision and its impact on the market live with Currency Analyst Nick Cawley. Chart of Probability of ECB Rate Decision from Swaps (Daily) A Status Check of the EuroIn evaluating how far the market may already be leaning towards an easing move from the policy authority, a good metric is the Euro itself. We can refer to the likes of the EURUSD or EURGBP, but these divergent trends clearly signal external forces can have significant sway over the Euro crosses’ ultimate performance. To get a more grounded view of the Euro itself, consider an equally-weighted index. From this perspective, the currency has slide steadily this past month to the lowest relative level in two years. Given it isn’t even at the mid-point of the 2017-2018 range, there is still plenty of premium to bleed off; but short-term, the Euro looks stretched on the bearish side. Chart of Equally-Weighted Euro Index (Daily)
EURUSD’s Technical Appeal…And Its Fundamental HurdlesNaturally, as we consider the possible follow through of the Euro’s burn in the face of a dovish drive from the ECB – a perspective seemingly shared by the outgoing President (Mario Draghi) and its income leader (Christine Lagarde) – one of the most appealing technical pictures is maintained by EURUSD. In a holding pattern just above 1.1100, the pair is stationed at a three-month low and on the cusp of a flush to a level not seen in over two years. If the ECB manages to surpass the market’s already-generous dovish expectations, a break below this floor would serious implications and the contrast to the Fed – even though it is tipping dovish – would be made even more significant so as to compensate. There will still be some restraint on progress, a situation that would be even more difficult to navigate if the event risk ended up easing the burden on the Euro. Prompting a reversal for this pair would immediately come into the frame of the US 2Q GDP on Friday the serious gravity around the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. Chart of EURUSD and Retail Speculative Positioning (Daily)
My Preferred Bullish Candidate: EURCHFIf there is a rebound for the Euro on the basis of an ECB view that suggests there is still no appetite to push deeper into uncharted dovish territory, I will look for a cross that doesn’t have fundamental headwinds via the countercurrency. Scenarios for the likes of EURJPY, EURCAD and EURAUD are fairly appealing with relatively limited offset. However, my preference for a ‘bullish’ outcome would be EURCHF. If the Euro manages a rally because the European policy group has no intention to erode its credibility, there is independent lift that can then take advantage of cross currencies that are simply not putting up barriers. For this cross, however, the Euro-area monetary policy is the foundation for the Franc’s performance. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is essentially attempting to offset the ECB’s overwhelming liquidity dump to prevent their own currency from appreciating in the wake of the Euro’s slide. If the larger currency is boosted owing to policy, it is only more reassuring for the EURCHF. Chart of EURCHF (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-25 03:55:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Aussie Flirting with Bearish Reversal Posted: 24 Jul 2019 08:43 PM PDT Hits: 7 AUDUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH
Get help building confidence in your AUDUSD strategy with our free trading guide! The Australian Dollar retreated from downtrend resistance capping gains since early December 2018 as expected, albeit after managing a slightly larger recovery than anticipated. Prices are now testing pivotal support guiding the upswing from mid-June. Breaking below this barrier on a daily closing basis initially faces a minor barrier at 0.6911, the July 10 low. Making the case for lasting bearish trend development probably requires a further breach of the support shelf running down through the January 2016 low at 0.6827. Immediate trend line resistance now stands at 0.7069, with added reinforcement at the 0.7082 (the July 19 high). A rebound that brings about a daily close above the latter sets the stage for a foray north of the 0.72 figure to challenge 0.7206-35 congestion zone. On balance, the dominant trend bias continues to favor the downside. However, proximity to trend support might discourage traders from committing to sizable short-side exposure on risk/reward grounds. A clear-cut breakdown or confirmed invalidation of bearish positioning is probably needed for lasting follow-through. AUDUSD TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Prices to Benefit from Threat of Trade, Currency War Posted: 24 Jul 2019 05:41 PM PDT Hits: 14 Gold Price Talking PointsThe price of gold attempts to retrace the decline from earlier this week as negotiations between the US and China appear to be stalling, and current market conditions may keep the precious metal afloat amid little signs of an imminent trade deal. Gold Prices to Benefit from Threat of Trade, Currency WarU.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizerare flying to Shanghai to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on July 30, but the ad hoc trip suggests there's been little progress in achieving a trade agreement as China's State Council pledges to 'adopt a combination of short-term and long-term, micro and macro measures" to address the risks surrounding the economy. The ongoing tension between the US and China may heighten the appeal of gold as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to reverse the four rate hikes from 2018. The threat of a policy error may encourage market participants to hedge against fiat currencies as there appears to be dissenting views within the Federal Open Market Committee. At the same time, there appears to be a growing risk for a currency war as Koichi Hamada, an economic advisor to Japanese Prime Shinzo Abe, insists that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may have to act to prevent the Yen from appreciating, and gold prices may continue to benefit from the current environment as there seems to a flight to safety. With that said, gold prices may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the near term, and the precious metal looks poised to extend the advance from the monthly-low ($1382) as it breaks out of a holding pattern. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups. Gold Price Daily Chart
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Gold Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-25 00:30:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| AUD/USD Downtrend at Support Before RBA Speech, Tesla Shares Sink Posted: 24 Jul 2019 05:03 PM PDT Hits: 8 Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points
Not sure where the US Dollar is heading next? We recently released the third quarter US Dollar fundamental and technical forecast! The past 24 hours were a choppy session, with varied performance in FX and equities ahead of key economic event risks such as the ECB and US GDP. Markets had to contend with mixed US earnings and data. While the S&P 500 ended the day 0.47% to the upside, the industrial-heavy Dow Jones fell almost 0.3% as it was weighed by Caterpillar Inc. (-4.48%) and Boeing shares (-3.12%) after earnings reports. The former noted rising material costs such as tariffs while the latter confronted the possibility of halting production of a version of its popular aircraft series, the 737 Max. Meanwhile, while new US home sales missed expectations in June, they rose 7.0% m/m versus 5.1% anticipated. Overall, the US Dollar was little-changed against a basket of its major counterparts. Thursday's Asia Pacific Trading SessionAhead, the Australian Dollar could be looking at elevated volatility during Thursday's Asia Pacific trading session. Over the past 24 hours, the sentiment-linked currency saw cautious weakness after the IMF downgraded global growth forecasts. The Aussie was also unable to find much upside momentum despite anticipation ahead of US-China trade talks in the week ahead. After Wall Street close, Tesla published a dismal earnings report that caused shares to decline over 9% as the company cut its capital expenditure outlook. Later, reports crossed the wires early into Thursday's session from South Korea that North Korea launched "two projectiles". This was later confirmed by Japan. S&P 500 futures are now pointing cautiously lower which might bode ill for the Aussie. Meanwhile, Philip Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is expected to speak later today. Overnight index swaps are pricing in about a 60% probability of a third cut this year by October. As such, markets will be closely eyeing commentary that can either confirm or push back dovish monetary policy expectations. AUD/USD Technical AnalysisTaking a closer look at the AUD/USD daily chart, the currency pair finds itself sitting right on a near-term rising support channel from the middle of June. This followed an attempt to break above long-term descending resistance from December. If the former breaks, we could be looking at another retest of channel support between 0.6827 and 0.6865 down the road. In the near-term, keep an eye on 0.6911. AUD/USD Daily ChartCharts Created in TradingView FX Trading Resources — Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EUR/USD Price Volatility Spikes Ahead of ECB & Fed Meetings Posted: 24 Jul 2019 01:53 PM PDT Hits: 11 EURUSD EYES UPCOMING ECB & FED RATE REVIEWS
Earlier this month, we highlighted how EURUSD implied volatility sunk to multi-year lows, which appeared to be a stark underpricing by currency option traders. Forex volatility is starting to show signs of coming back to life, however, and the July ECB Meeting could serve as a catalyst that propels currency price action further. In fact, overnight EURUSD implied volatility just skyrocketed to its highest reading of the year at 13.34%, which reflects the heightened level of uncertainty and risk attributed to the ECB's upcoming monetary policy decision by forex traders. EURUSD IMPLIED VOLATILITY JUMPS ON CENTRAL BANK POLICY UNCERTAINTYAside from the upcoming ECB meeting, several other event risks listed on the economic calendar like Friday's US GDP data and next Wednesday's release of Eurozone GDP numbers in addition to the July Fed meeting all threaten to stoke additional volatility in spot EURUSD. That said, market expectations for the ECB to cut rates this Thursday are near split according to overnight swaps pricing. Interest rate traders are indicating a 62.1% probability the central bank's key rate is left unchanged at -0.4% whereas the probability of a 10-basis point rate cut stands at 37.9%. This is down slightly from a 51.2% chance of a rate cut priced by markets this past Friday when we drew attention Euro implied volatility spiking headed into the July ECB meeting. ECB RATE CUT PROBABILITY CHART – JULY 2019 MEETING
Regardless if the ECB stands firm on rates or not tomorrow when it releases its press statement at 11:45 GMT, the US Dollar stands to gain against the Euro if ECB President Mario Draghi paves the path for fresh monetary stimulus to stymie further deterioration in the Eurozone economy. Moreover, the IMF cut GDP outlook again for Germany – the EU's economic backbone – down to a paltry 0.7% growth rate for this year. As such, spot EURUSD could rise even in the shadow of an expected rate cut from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC next week. EURUSD 25 DELTA RISK REVERSAL CHART
Bias to the downside is also supported by the steady decline in EURUSD risk reversals turning less positive. In other words, demand for downside protection is outweighing demand for upside protection. Yet, 71.9% of retail traders remain net-long spot EURUSD according to IG Client Sentiment data. EURUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (JANUARY 07, 2019 TO JULY 24, 2019)
Judging by EURUSD overnight implied volatility of 12.0%, the 1-standard deviation trading range for spot prices is calculated as 1.1066-1.1206 and reflects a 68 percent confidence interval. If the ECB does shock forex traders with more dovishness, spot EURUSD bears could target the 1.1100 handle near the currency pair's year-to-date low and is a level that could soften a selloff before approaching the lower bound of the option implied trading range. Conversely, spot EURUSD upside might be sparked from a firm stance by the ECB and relatively hawkish rhetoric. In this scenario, the Euro could rise into confluent resistance around he 1.1200 handle. — Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| FB, TSLA Earnings to Drive Stock Sentiment Posted: 24 Jul 2019 12:04 PM PDT Hits: 7 Nasdaq 100 Forecast:
Nasdaq 100 Outlook: FB, TSLA Earnings to Drive Stock SentimentThe Nasdaq 100 surged to record highs early Wednesday, despite an announcement that the Department of Justice will open a review of some of the country's largest technology firms regarding anti-trust violations. Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook are the corporations in the crosshairs, the last of which will report quarterly earnings after the close Wednesday. Facebook's earnings call will mark the first opportunity for Wall Street analysts to question a tech management team on the perceived threat from the investigation and the impact it could have on earnings and the sector at large. Earnings to Watch July 24Facebook and the FAANG GroupFAANG member Facebook is the second of the group to report, behind only Netflix which suffered a miss and subsequent pummeling of its share price. That said, the stakes are raised headed into Wednesday's close with Facebook in position to dictate tech sentiment until Thursday afternoon when Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) are slated to report. Facebook (FB) Stock Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – July) (Chart 1)
As for price action, options pricing reveals the earnings-implied volatility is a moderate 7%, resulting in an implied price range of nearly $30. The range lacks significant technical levels aside from the 50% Fib around $198. Over the next month, implied volatility is just 18.5% for expected price action – relatively low considering the typical volatility of the technology sector and the ongoing earnings season. TeslaSimilarly, Elon Musk's Tesla is expected to experience notable volatility over both the short and medium terms. TSLA earnings-implied volatility is also a moderate 7.3% as the company is often viewed as a tech-automotive hybrid company. Regardless of sector, Tesla has a history of price volatility – particularly around earnings – largely due to public opinion and widespread headwinds the company has faced. To that end, implied volatility over the next 20 trading days is significant at 28%. Tesla (TSLA) Stock Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (November 2018 – July 2019) (Chart 2)
That said, TSLA shares enjoy two nearby technical levels of note. To the topside, the 200-day moving average resides narrowly above the implied price range and could look to keep shares contained at the upper bound if earnings impress. To the lower side, Fibonacci support at $246 may attempt to limit downside moves. Ford and Trade WarsFinally, Ford Motors (F) will report alongside Facebook and Tesla. The bonafide auto manufacturer faces a series of headwinds ranging from waning consumer confidence to higher input prices and a strong US Dollar. While the former may suggest customers will wait to purchase big-ticket items and therefore weigh on sales, the latter headwinds are largely in the hands of the Trump administration in addition to next week’s Fed meeting and US negotiators who will travel to Beijing next week. Third Quarter Forecasts are here! Check out the outlook for equities, gold, the US Dollar and more. In recent quarterly reports, Ford has highlighted the impact of higher input prices on the back of sweeping metal and aluminum tariffs. Further, the US-China trade war has muddied the outlook for sales in China and threatens to complicate the company's supply chain. The catalog of concerns has played a role in keeping Ford shares in check since early May and could look to weigh on second quarter results. Ford (F) Stock Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (September 2018 – July 2019) (Chart 3)
That said, confluent support at $10 will attempt to parry a move lower if earnings disappoint. To the topside, nearby resistance looks to reside at the $10.50 level which capped Ford's share price throughout the second quarter. While the market awaits results from Facebook, Tesla and Ford, follow @PeterHanksFXon Twitter for updates and analysis on other scheduled reports. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more: Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
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