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Key Facts to Know & Why it is Important for the Stock Market Outlook

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 02:11 PM PDT

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Earnings Season Talking Points:

  • What is Earnings Season?
  • Why is it Important to Look at Company Earnings?
  • Bellwether Stocks
  • Earnings Recession
  • Top 10 stocks Across US and Europe

Earnings Season

Earnings season is a period within the year, usually lasting several weeks, where the majority of listed companies announce their latest financial accounts. An earnings report consists of revenues, net income, earnings per share (EPS) and forward outlook, which provides investors with insight in regard to the current health and outlook for the company.

As such, earnings season helps market participants trade the company they are monitoring and the broader index, depending the impact the company has i.e. strong Apple (AAPL) earnings report may see investors buy Nasdaq 100 futures.

When is Earnings Season?

Earnings season takes place a few weeks after each quarter ends (December, March, June, September). In other words, earnings seasons begins around January-February (Q4 results), April-May (Q1 results), July-August (Q2 results) and October-November (Q3 results), with the unofficial start of earning season confirmed when the major US banks report. This typically coincides with an increase in the number of earnings being released, while the unofficial end of earning season is roughly around the time that Walmart (WMT) announce their earnings report.

Why is it Important to Look at Company Earnings?

Corporate earnings are among the most important fundamental drivers of individual stocks and by extension the broader stock market over the long run. Additionally, in the short term, there is not an awful lot that impacts stocks and provides the possibility of large price swings than earnings.

While for the broader index, if the majority of companies within an index, particularly those that a market leader, are reporting earnings that are better than expected, investors typically have a more positive/bullish outlook with regard to not only the individual stocks but also the index. While on the flipside, corporate earnings that underperform expectations would see investors grow more cautious/bearish over the stock market outlook than they otherwise would have been. Consequently, given the importance over earning season, volatility tends to be more elevated around this period.

What to Look Out for During Earnings Season

1. Bellwether Stocks Key to Economic Outlook

When analyzing company earnings, it is important to look out for "bellwether" stocks which can be used as a gauge for the performance of the macro-economy. While the status of a bellwether stock can change overtime, the largest and most well-established companies are typically considered a bellwether stock.

Examples of Bellwether stocks

  • FedEx (FDX): Ships goods for consumers and businesses across the globe.
  • Caterpillar (CAT): World's largest heavy-duty maker has been viewed as a bellwether given its large exposure to construction, manufacturing and agricultural industries, particularly in China.
  • 3M (MMM): Gauge for the health of the manufacturing sector.
  • Apple (AAPL): Among the world's largest company. Important for key suppliers, in particular, chipmakers.

2. Earnings Recession

An "earnings recession" is characterized as two consecutive quarters of y/y declines in company profits. However, while earnings are an important factor in stock market returns over the long term, an earnings recession does not necessarily coincide with an economic recession. The chart below shows that in the past six earnings recessions witnessed in the US, only two had coincided with an economic recession.

Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX. Red circles = earnings & economic recession. Blue Circles = earnings recession without economic recession.

3. Earnings Impact on Risk Sentiment Depends on Index Weighting

DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) | Day Trading the Dow Jones: Strategies, Tips & Trading Signals

Earnings Season: Key Facts to Know & Why it is Important for the Stock Market Outlook

S&P 500 | How to Trade S&P 500 Index: Strategies, Tips & Trading Hours

Earnings Season: Key Facts to Know & Why it is Important for the Stock Market Outlook

Nasdaq 100 | Nasdaq Trading Basics: How to Trade Nasdaq 100

Earnings Season: Key Facts to Know & Why it is Important for the Stock Market Outlook

DAX 30 | How to Trade Dax 30: Trading Strategies and Tips

Earnings Season: Key Facts to Know & Why it is Important for the Stock Market Outlook

FTSE 100 | How to Trade FTSE 100

Earnings Season: Key Facts to Know & Why it is Important for the Stock Market Outlook

EARNINGS SEASON TIPS

  • When analyzing company earnings, it is important to know what is "expected" with regard to the revenue/sales and earnings per share (EPS) figures, given that a company's share price reaction can be determined by size in which they beat/miss expectations.
  • Surprise announcements that coincide with an earnings report can also impact the share price of a company, which include stock buybacks/share repurchase programs as well as company guidance.
  • Spillover effects can be important for an investor. For example, if an investor has a chipmaker stock within their portfolio (i.e. Dialog Semiconductor), earnings from Apple could have a sizeable impact on the stock. Consequently, it is important to assess related stocks, given that they may reveal the outlook for a sector, thus sparking a possible sector rotation.
  • Working out the "expected move" for a stock in reaction to the binary event, can be utilized through option straddles. Going long a straddle means that a trader would buy a call and put option for the same underlying stock with same strike price and expiration date. Therefore, if the stock makes a sizeable move in either direction before the expiration date a trader can realize gains. However, beware that the initial investment can be lost if the share is flat, while options whose expiration is after the earnings announcement are typically move expensive.

RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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2019-07-04 21:00:00

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Posted: 04 Jul 2019 01:57 PM PDT

Hits: 8


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It’s here! $10 July 4th Blowout is officially on!

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 01:16 PM PDT

Hits: 8


Dear Trader,

It’s a 4th of July celebration here at Schaeffer’s, and you’re invited!

We’re preparing for next week’s earnings season kickoff… With some of the most EXPLOSIVE trades of the year!

And today… I want to tell you how you can get in on these trades…

Get ready to profit in as little as 8 hours…

And set yourself up for some “easy money” for just $10!

Sound too good to be true?

That’s exactly what one group of investors is doing… raking in a whole lot of extra cash while they sleep by taking advantage of this “overnight” profit strategy.

So today, I have something important to share with you about how you can make a small fortune (sometimes literally while you sleep)!

You could make money in just 8 trading hours… or even less…

If this isn’t the easiest way to make money in the stock market, I don’t know what is.

And now you can target easy money – the fastest way possible – with our Overnight Trader.

Each recommendation targets gains of up to 100% and is closed in as little as 8 hours.

It’s perfect for traders who want to protect their capital and target fast profits. And until midnight, you can save a bundle with this special 4th of July blowout sale!

While Overnight Trader is regularly priced at $195 per month, you won’t have to pay anywhere near that.

As part of this special offer, you’ll save HUGE and gain full access to Overnight Trader for a full month for just $10!

That means you’ll receive an average of 4 of overnight trades for JUST $10!

You’ll have the potential to make up to a thousand or more in extra cash with every trade – don’t let this incredible profit opportunity pass you by.

Three Simple Trading Rules to Help You Use Overnight Trading
to Maximize Your Returns in Today’s Market

If you want to profit from the volatility that occurs overnight, then you’ll want to follow these three simple trading rules:

Simple Trading Rule #1: Play the Bounce (or Plunge)
…and Double Your Money Overnight

As an Overnight Trader, you can target gains of up to 100% literally overnight. And you can do it an average of 4 times each month.

You just have to follow three simple investing rules. The first rule is… “Play the Bounce (or Plunge).”

“Play the Bounce (or Plunge)” means paying close attention to trendlines and potential levels of support or resistance – which often lead to a quick stock move in a particular direction.

That’s exactly what happened when we made 151% gains on Apple calls in just 3 days last month!

When we made our recommendation to buy the Apple calls, the shares were up 13% year-to-date, despite a recent sell-off. With a bull gap indicating potential technical support going forward, we knew the shares would likely continue their journey higher in the weeks ahead, especially if the bearish option sentiment surrounding the stock were to unwind.

We recommended that investors buy calls. Turns out, we were right about the direction of the shares.

The next morning, we recommended selling half of the calls for 79% gains, then recommended selling the second half just two days later for 222% gains, giving us a total gain of 151%. You could have purchased 2 contracts for a mere $977 and sold for $2,447 and raked in a tidy $1,470 in pure profits in just 3 days!

Act Now!

And that brings me to the second rule of trading, which is…

Simple Trading Rule #2: Protect Your Capital

With short-term trading, your capital exposure is limited to just a few hours. So, you don’t have to sweat bullets while the market tosses your stocks back and forth like a tennis ball for weeks at a time.

You can protect your capital by getting in and out in just a matter of hours.

That’s why as an Overnight Trader, it’s amazingly easy to protect your capital.

Because you’re in and out of the market in as little as 8 trading hours or less.

With Overnight Trader, you put that short-term volatility to work for you. Your money is in and out of the market in just one trading day.

So instead of clutching your stomach as you watch your stocks swing wildly back and forth… you could be raking in big gains with just a few short hours of trading.

And that brings me to the third rule of trading, which is…

Simple Trading Rule #3: Freeze Time
…and Get the Most Bang for Your Trading Buck

As an Overnight Trader, every recommendation you receive will be 1 to 7 days out from its expiration.

Some will be weekly options and some will be monthly options. But every option will expire in 7 trading days or less.

And for most trades, we’ll at least partially close out on the very next trading day.

Why the short time frame? Because by closing out the trade so quickly, you can in essence “freeze time.”

Let me explain. As you probably know, options lose value as time passes. It’s called time decay. And the longer you hold an option, the more time decay eats into your premium – and thus your profits.

But time decay does not affect your option premiums when the market is closed. So as an Overnight Trader, you can in essence “freeze time” – and take advantage of all the profit potential that overnight volatility presents…with absolutely no downside.

You can buy options that let you profit big from overnight market moves… without having your profits eaten away by time decay – or a market that moves against you.

That’s why it can pay off to “freeze time” when trading.

By now I hope you can see why smart-money traders are shortening their time frames when trading.

If you too want the chance to grow your money by up to 100% in as little as 8 hours, then please join now. Don’t let this lucrative opportunity pass you by. Click here now!

Put Fast Market Moves to Work for Your Portfolio Today!

Now let me be perfectly clear here, I’m NOT suggesting you ONLY have these fast-action trades in your options portfolio. When you need more time for your move to play out, you need to stick with a longer trading time frame.

But there are times when these kinds of trades really make sense – particularly when all the signs show that a stock is about to make a significant, quick bounce (or plunge).

And to successfully play the bounce (or plunge), you need a reliable set of short-term indicators. Indicators that allow you to select winning trades based on a price forecast of as little as 8 trading hours.

Proprietary indicators like the ones we’ve developed over the past 37 years here at Schaeffer’s Investment Research.

Now one of the really great things about being an Overnight Trader is that you don’t have to invest a lot of cash to target big profits.

Many of our trade recommendations will cost around $500 or less to enter.

Now that doesn’t mean we’ll NEVER send you a trade that costs a bit more to get in. Some will be more expensive. After all, I would hate for you to miss out on a really hot profit opportunity just because it costs a little bit more.

And remember, with Overnight Trader, you are in and out of the market in as little as 8 TRADING HOURS or less. We’re talking one trading day here.

And every trade targets up to 100% gains.

So, an overnight investment of $1,000 could generate $1,000 in extra cash in no time at all.

Now $1,000 might not sound like much. But if you were to do that 4 times this month, you’d have an extra $4,000 in cash pretty quickly.

If you were to do that every month, you could have up to $48,000 in extra cash in a year’s time!

Act Now!

And here’s the really great thing about my Overnight Trader: Because you’re in and out of every trade by the next trading day, you can “recycle” your trading capital over and over again… flipping it from one trade to the next… potentially generating bigger and bigger gains each time.

It’s the old “power of compounding” secret. And you could use it to turn a little bit of money into a big wad of cash – making just 4 trades a month.

It’s why long-term, buy-and-hold investors get crushed while savvy options traders can make out like bandits.

Because long-term stock investors end up pouring more and more money into stocks – then suffer as they watch them skyrocket up and tumble down as a result of this new market environment.

But as an Overnight Trader, you’re in and out of your trades in a matter of hours. So, if you double your money one night, you can turn right around and put that money back to work in your next trade.

Only you could have twice as much to work with! It’s the secret to making fast and furious profits.

You just keep applying your profits from one trade to the next to potentially build up a small pile of cash.

Now I will point out that you won’t be able to compound your profits on every trade.

Yes, there will be losing trades. That’s the way it is when you trade options. You’ll have winners and losers.

But remember… the most you can lose on any single trade is the amount you invested, while your potential gains are unlimited. It only takes a few big winners to more than overpower any losing trades that you have along the way… and that’s why I love options trading so much.

And it’s also why I don’t recommend reinvesting every penny you make. It’s always good to take some cash off the table from those big winners and stash it away for a rainy day.

The bottom line is that my Overnight Trader service gets you in and out of trades so quickly that the potential to compound your profits is huge.

Act Now!

And your potential for savings is huge too, if you act quickly, and get in as part of this limited time 4th of July blowout!

Until midnight you can receive a month of Overnight Trader – valued at $195 – for just $10!

That’s an average of 4 of trades for way, way less than the normal cost of a single month!

Start targeting big money gains by trading options overnight today! It’s easy with Overnight Trader!

Act Now!

Top 10 Reasons to Join Schaeffer’s Overnight Trader Today

#1: Designed to Deliver Double-Your-Money Profits in as Little as 8 Hours – Every single Overnight Trader option recommendation targets gains of up to 100% in as little as 8 hours or less – you’ll rake in the gains practically overnight!

#2: Protects Your Cash with Fast-Turnaround Trades – As an Overnight Trader, you can invest in many trades for just a few hundred dollars each… and you’ll keep that cash in the market for as little as 8 trading hours or less.

#3: Lets You Reinvest to Compound Your Investment – As an Overnight Trader, you are in and out of the market in 8 trading hours or less – so you can reinvest your profits (or cut your losses short) almost immediately!

#4: Lets You Take Full Advantage of the Modern Market Environment – Take advantage of the fastest market moves to avoid time decay and maximize your profits!

#5: Simple to Trade Overnight Trader keeps it simple, only recommending straight option calls and puts.

#6: You Receive 4 Chances to Profit Each Month – with an average of 4 Overnight Trader recommendations every month.

#7: Get Detailed Research on Every Trade For each new trade, we’ll shoot you an email containing a link to both an easy-to-understand trade recommendation and a trade commentary. Just click on the link for the specific option recommendation, as well as greater insight on why we think this recommendation is poised to deliver gains of up to 100% in just 8 trading hours or less.

This link gives you immediate access to trade details including commentary and graphs and also technical, sentiment, and fundamental indicators and parameters. So, you always have the information you need – showing you exactly why we expect the trade to deliver.

#8: We’ll Tell You When to Close As Soon As the Next Trading Day – You’ll receive email instructions telling you how to close out each position, so you’re never left wondering what to do. You just sit back, place the trades, and wait for further instruction.

#9: Everything You Need to Know to Make Money In Just 8 Hours Your complimentary Overnight Trader handbook gives you detailed money management guidelines so you can easily trade options overnight while maximizing your profit potential and minimizing your risk.

#10: You Can Receive Access for Just $10 – Join Overnight Trader before midnight and receive a full month of trades for just $10!

Act Now!

How About Working “Easy” for Your Money?

So now that I have shown you how simple it is for you to target easy money with “overnight options,” you have to ask yourself…

Do you want to work “easy” for your money in the new cyber market… and use it to rake in profits in just one trading day?

Or do you want to keep toiling and working the hard way?

Remember, it costs you only $10 for the chance to sleep a lot better at night… knowing you have the opportunity to double your money in as little as 8 hours.

But you need to hurry! This 4th of July blowout sale is only available for today – so act now to start working on earning those “overnight profits” right away!

Yours for bigger profits,

Bernie Schaeffer
Chairman & CEO
Schaeffer’s Investment Research
service@sir-inc.com
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com
1-800-448-2080
1-513-589-3800 International

P.S. Now that you know the secret to raking in gains in just hours, take advantage of the strategy that could help you make profits overnight! Join my Overnight Trader today!

2019-07-04 15:18:07



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The Head and Shoulders Pattern: A Trader’s Guide

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 01:13 PM PDT

Hits: 8


Often considered the most steadfast of all major reversal patterns, the Head and Shoulders chart pattern is employed by novice and experience traders alike to speculate on both forex and stock markets. The benefit of this chart pattern is defined areas to set risk levels and profit targets.

The inverse pattern is equally useful in any trader's arsenal and adopts the same approach as the traditional Head and Shoulders pattern. The head and shoulders stock and forex analysis process will exercise the same logic making it a great tool to include in a trader's repertoire.

Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern: Main Talking Points

  • What is a Head and Shoulders pattern?
  • What is the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern?
  • How to identify Head and Shoulders patterns on forex and stock charts
  • Advantages and limitations of the Head and Shoulders pattern

What is the Head and Shoulders Pattern?

The Head and Shoulders chart pattern is a price reversal pattern that helps traders identify when a reversal may be underway after a trend has exhausted itself. This reversal signals the end of an uptrend. The Head and Shoulders pattern has a distinctive appearance resembling its namesake which includes a distinct 'left shoulder', 'head', 'right shoulder' and 'neckline' formation (see image below).

What is the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern?

The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern reflects the same structure as the standard version but reversed, making it observable in a downtrend (see image below). The Inverse Head and Shoulders indicates a reversal of a downtrend as higher lows are created.

inverse head and shoulders chart pattern

How to identify Head and Shoulders Patterns on Forex & Stock Charts

Recognizing the Head and Shoulders pattern on both forex and stock charts entail the exact same actions; making it a versatile tool to include in any trading strategy. The following list gives a simple breakdown of the key action points when identifying this pattern:

  1. Identify the overall market trend using price action and technical indicators (preceding uptrend)
  2. Isolate the Head and Shoulders chart construction
  3. The distance between the 'Head' and 'Shoulders' should be as close to equidistant as possible
  4. Delineate the neckline at the low point between both 'shoulders' – preferably horizontal but not obligatory

How to Trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern

Once a trader knows how to identify the standard and inverse head and shoulders patterns, it's relatively easy to apply it to technical analysis in both forex and equity markets.

Trading stocks with the Head and Shoulders pattern

trading the head and shoulders pattern

The chart above shows a Head and Shoulders pattern on the Germany 30 (DAX 30) stock index. The formation of the pattern is clear with the neckline highlighted by the dashed blue horizontal line. Traders will look to enter a short trade after a confirmation close below the neckline as seen by the 'ENTRY' label on the chart or the pip movement below the neckline. Some traders employ the 'two-day' close rule which necessitates a second confirmation candle closing below the neckline before opening the short trade. Trading on the pip break below the neckline allows traders to benefit from the full move down however, this tactic is riskier in that the breakout below the neckline has not been confirmed by a candle close.

There is a general rule of thumb to designate stop and limit levels. Taking the high point off the 'right shoulder' will specify the stop level whilst the vertical distance between the neckline and high of the 'head' will approximate the limit distance – 1832.8 pips in this case. The risk-reward ratio on this trade is roughly 1:1.2 which is still within the DailyFX recommended risk management parameters.

Trading forex with the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern

trading the inverse head and shoulders pattern

The Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern on the USD/ZAR forex pair above shows an asymmetrical structure which is quite common in most formations. The neckline is slightly skewed however, still maintaining the integrity of the pattern.

The long entry level is highlighted by the neckline break or the price candle close above the neckline. The stop distance is taken from the low from the 'right shoulder' whilst the limit distance is calculated by measuring the distance from the 'head' low to the neckline.

Advantages and Limitations of the Head and Shoulders Pattern

Advantages

Limitations

Easy to identify for more experienced traders

Difficult to identify for novice traders

Defined risk and take profit levels

Confirmation candle may close far below neckline resulting in large stop loss distances which may need to be reviewed

Potential to exploit big market movements

Price can pullback and retest the neckline often confusing beginner traders

Useful in all markets

Risk-reward ratios are not always favourable

Further Reading on Forex Trading Patterns

  • Reading a candlestick chart is an important foundation to have before analyzing more complex techniques.
  • Doji candlesticks are another common pattern all traders should be able to identify in order to apply effective technical analysis to their trades.
  • Technical traders have different styles and forex trading strategies. Explore these thoroughly to find out if this type of analysis suits your personality.
  • If you are just starting out on your trading journey it is essential to understand the basics of forex trading in our New to Forex guide.

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Hammer Candlestick Patterns: A Trader’s Guide

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 12:50 PM PDT

Hits: 9


Trading with the Hammer Candle: Main Talking Points

The hammer candlestick pattern is frequently observed in the forex market and provides important insight into trend reversals. It's crucial that traders understand that there is more to the hammer candle than simply spotting it on a chart. Price action and the location of the hammer candle, when viewed within the existing trend, are both crucial validating factors for this candle.

This article will cover:

  • What is a hammer candle pattern?
  • Advantages and limitations of the hammer chart pattern
  • Using a hammer candlestick pattern in trading
  • Further reading on trading with candlestick patterns

What is a Hammer Candlestick?

The hammer candlestick is found at the bottom of a downtrend and signals a potential (bullish) reversal in the market.The most common hammer candle is the bullish hammer which has a small candle body and an extended lower wick – showing rejection of lower prices.The other pattern traders look out for is the inverted hammer, which is an upside-down bullish hammer.

Bullish Hammer Candlestick

The hammer candlestick appears at the bottom of a down trend and signals a bullish reversal. The hammer candle has a small body, little to no upper wick, and a long lower wick – resembling a 'hammer'.

The pattern indicates that the price dropped to new lows, but subsequent buying pressure forced the price to close higher, hinting at a potential reversal. The extended lower wick is indicative of the rejection of lower prices.

Inverted Hammer Candlestick

The inverted hammer candlestick, like the bullish hammer, also provides a signal for a bullish reversal. The candle is, as the name suggests, an inverted hammer. The candle has a long extended upper wick, a small real body with little or no lower wick.

The candle opens at the bottom of a downtrend before the bulls push price upwards – reflected in the extended upper wick. Price does eventually return down towards the opening level but closes above the open, to provide the bullish signal. Should the buying momentum continue, this will be seen in the subsequent price action moving higher.

Inverted Hammer pattern at the bottom of a downtrend

Advantages and Limitations of the Hammer Candlestick

Hammer candles have their advantages and their limitations; therefore, traders should never rush into placing a trade as soon as the hammer candle has been identified.

Advantages

  • Reversal signal: The pattern indicates the rejection of lower prices. When found in a downtrend it could signal the end of selling pressure and begin to trade sideways or reverse to the upside.
  • Exit signal: Traders that have an existing short position, can viw the hammer candle as an indication that selling pressure is subsiding – presenting the ideal time to close out of the short position.

Limitations

  • No indication of trend: The hammer candle does not take the trend into consideration and therefore, when considered in isolation, can provide a false signal.
  • Supporting evidence: In order to enter into high probability trades, it is important for traders to look for additional information on the chart that supports the case for a reversal. Such confluence can be found by assessing whether the hammer appears near a major level of support, pivot point, significant Fibonacci level; or whether an overbought signal is produced on the CCI, RSI or stachastic indicator.

Using Hammer Candles in Technical Analysis

The following example of how to trade the hammer candlestick highlights the hammer candle on the weekly EUR/USD chart.

Hammer candle appearing at the base of a downtrend

Traders can make use of hammer technical analysis when deciding on entries into the market. Looking at a zoomed-out view of the above example, the chart shows how price bounced from newly created lows before reversing higher. The zone connecting the lows acts as support and provides greater conviction to the reversal signal produced by the hammer candlestick.

Stops can be placed below the zone of support while targets can coincide with recent levels of resistance – provided a positive risk to reward ratio is maintained.

hammer candle appearing at support in a downtrend EUR/USD

Learn more about Trading with Hammer Candles

  • If you are just starting out on your trading journey it is essential to understand the basics of forex trading in our New to Forex trading guide.
  • The hammer candlestick is just one of many candlestick patterns that all traders should know. Improve your knowledge by learning the Top 10 Candlestick Patterns.
  • For more information on reversal patterns, read our article on Trading the Bullish Hammer Candle.

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Cheap Vacation Bundle Deals: Info on Saving Money on Airfare, Hotel Rooms, Cruises, & More

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 12:47 PM PDT

Hits: 7



Whether you’re planning for spring break, a summer vacation, or winter getaway, there are many nice places to go and things to do. It’s off-season or shoulder-season somewhere in the world, so there are cheap vacation bundle deals waiting to be snatched up. Don’t miss out on the chance to go to a nice city, town, or country at an affordable price.



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Hot New Trade Ideas for July

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 11:21 AM PDT

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Hot New Trade Ideas for July

Here in the U.S., we’re taking time out today to celebrate Independence Day. We hope those of you who are joining us on holiday are able to relax and enjoy the rare mid-week break!

But we’ve still got our eye on what’s shaping up to be one of the hottest months of the year… and we’re not just talking about the mercury rising. With a major Fed meeting around the corner and second-quarter earnings season about to kick off, the stock market looks poised for some possible high-volatility moves in the weeks ahead.

To help jump-start your July trading, Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White ran the numbers to find the best & worst S&P 500 stocks of the past decade — not just for the month of July, but for the full third quarter.

Standout Stocks for This Month

No fewer than nine S&P stocks have managed to rack up 100% positive July returns during the past 10 years — including retailer powerhouses Target (TGT) and Nordstrom (JWN), and energy names HollyFrontier (HFC) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC).

But some of the biggest average percentage gains of the month belong to the biotech sector. Over the last decade, the average July returns for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN), Celgene (CELG), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) have all exceeded 10%.

For more details, including the complete list of best July and 3Q stocks, read Best Stocks to Buy Before July.

Stocks Set to Wilt as Summer Heats Up

Did you know that healthcare stocks have been a pocket of particular S&P weakness in July over the last decade? The biggest loser of the crop is Humana (HUM), with its average drop of 3.00% for the month — and only 40% positive returns!

Over the full third quarter, though, Campbell Soup (CPB) tends to lag the pack. The consumer staples stock averages a drop of 3.85% for the July-September period, and its median return is a steeper drop of 6.52%.

For the complete roster of S&P components that tend to skid in July — including the chip stock with only 20% positive returns — check out Worst Stocks for July and Beyond.

2019-07-04 17:00:05



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EUR/USD Implied Volatility Drops to Multi-Year Lows

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 11:07 AM PDT

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EUR/USD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

  • Spot EUR/USD has fluctuated within a relatively tight trading range since late 2018
  • Lack of currency volatility in spot EUR/USD has weighed on future expected price action
  • EUR/USD implied volatility across the 6-month and 12-month measures have plunged to the lowest level since July 2014 and June 2007 respectively
  • Check out comprehensive fundamental and technical outlook on the Euro and US Dollar by downloading the free DailyFX Q3 Forecasts

Currency volatility has drifted lower over the last few months and is a trend largely driven by lack of price action in spot EUR/USD – the world's most traded forex pair. Seeing that volatility generally begets more volatility, it is not surprising that EUR/USD implied volatility measures have taken a nosedive with some tenors recording fresh multi-year lows.

EUR/USD IMPLIED VOLATILITY CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (JULY 03, 2018 TO JULY 03, 2019)

In fact, EUR/USD 6-month and 12-month implied volatility readings touched their lowest level since July 2014 and June 2007 respectively while shorter durations have plunged similarly. Lack of price action in spot EUR/USD over the last few months could be attributed to dovish central bank expectations.

According to overnight swaps, traders are currently expecting both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease monetary policy over the coming months primarily in response to deteriorating economic data like slowing GDP growth and weakening labor markets. As such, a "battle of the doves" appears to have emerged with the ECB and Fed communicating their stark readiness to act and shore up their economies.

While heightened dovishness by the ECB and Fed could continue dragging EUR/USD implied volatility lower over the short-term – particularly with recent news that IMF's Christine Lagarde will replace ECB President Mario Draghi at the end of October and US President Trump's Fed nominations – the extremely low readings of EUR/USD implied volatility risk rebounding higher toward historical averages.

SPOT EUR/USD PRICE CHART: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (JULY 31, 2016 TO JULY 03, 2019)

Spot EURUSD Rate Technical Analysis

Using the current 6-month implied volatility reading of 5.38 percent for spot EUR/USD, the currency pair's 1-standard deviation estimated trading range can be calculated. As such, spot EUR/USD is expected to trade between 1.0857-1.1709 over the next 6-months with a 68 percent statistical probability. It is noteworthy that the estimated trading range aligns almost perfectly with the 76.4 percent and 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of the forex rate's ascent from 1.0340 to 1.2556 from January 1, 2017 to February 11, 2018.

These technical levels of confluence will likely provide an additional layer of support and resistance respectively. That being said, the short-term trading range in spot EUR/USD recorded since November 2018 – roughly between the 1.15 and 1.12 handles – poses a challenge for volatility as the technical levels could limit sharp swings in spot EUR/USD.

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

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2019-07-04 18:00:00

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How Monetary and Fiscal Policy Can Amplify or Stave Off Crises

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 11:03 AM PDT

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Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy:

  • When trading financial markets, especially when there are concerns about a global economic slowdown, it's essential to monitor both government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy.
  • When they are working together, the chances of a slowdown turning into a full-blown recession are substantially reduced.
  • When they are not, an economic meltdown is far more likely.

Importance of monetary and fiscal policy when trading in an economic downturn

Trading the financial markets when economic conditions are poor, it is more important than ever to monitor both government fiscal policy and central bank monetary policy. It's even more crucial when there are concerns that a slowdown could lead to a full-blown recession

That's because the proper policy adjustments can avert a true crisis and prompt recovery, while the wrong strategy can potentially hasten and/or exacerbate the collapse.

What is the difference between monetary and fiscal policy?

Put simply, fiscal policy means a government's tax and spending plans while monetary policy refers to a central bank's decisions on interest rates and whether to push more money into the financial system or withdraw it. They are most effective when they are working together and least effective when they are pulling in opposite directions.

Monetary and fiscal policy coordination

While a coordinated, complementary response to the threat of a crisis is ideal, a problem in many countries – such as the US, the UK and the Eurozone – is that their central banks are independent and therefore resistant to political pressures to act one way or another. Tax cuts are positive for economic growth, for example, but their impact can be reduced by a central bank that refuses to loosen monetary policy for fear, for instance, of stoking inflation.

Eurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters

In other countries, the wall between the government and the central bank is less solid. In Japan, the Ministry of Finance lost much of its authority over the Bank of Japan in 1997. However, it is still prone to political interference as was made clear when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe implemented a "three arrows" policy consisting of monetary policy, fiscal policy and economic growth strategies to boost private investment. The government, in turn, has been accused of being influenced strongly by big business, leading to the term "Japan Inc."

Elsewhere, the central banks in countries such as India and Turkey are under strong pressure to bring their policies more into line with their governments' fiscal policies. In China, perhaps surprisingly, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has some limited independence despite being ultimately controlled by the country's Communist rulers. Some other Asian countries coordinate monetary and fiscal policy openly.

Hawkish vs Dovish: How Monetary Policy Affects FX Trading

In the US, President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve and pressed it to cut interest rates – something it has so far refused to do, although reductions are on the cards before the end of 2019.

In a Twitter post in May 2019, Trump argued that "China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a 'match' it would be game over, we win!"

The response to his tweet was broadly negative but, as one commentator said at the time – and as explained above – this is exactly what Japan and China are doing, and Europe would too if it wasn't worried about losing sovereignty at the country level. Another noted that "The Fed and the PBOC are more alike than you might think".

Trading markets when central banks run out of options

From a trading perspective, it is the central banks that influence prices more directly. When they decide to raise or lower interest rates, hint that rate changes are on the way, inject money into an economy or drain it out, or devise ever more complex ways to influence the supply of money, prices react immediately.

Why Central Bank Monetary Policy May Fail to Avert Another Market Swoon

There is less response to government announcements of tax changes, austerity programs, infrastructure spending and the like – partly because their influence is longer term and partly because they can be offset by the central bankers if they decide, for example, that fiscal largesse is likely to boost inflation.

It is important to note, though, that when central banks run out of options, government policy becomes more important for markets. At the time of writing, official interest rates are negative in both Japan and Switzerland, and at zero in the Eurozone. Around the world, creative policies with ever more complex acronyms and various success rates have been introduced to bolster economies when rates can be reduced no further and conventional monetary policy seems to have reached its limit. Here are some of them:

  • The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was introduced by the US in 2008 as a response to the subprime mortgage crisis and involved the buying of toxic assets and equity from financial institutions.
  • The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) was also created in 2008, by the Federal Reserve, to boost the economy – a good example of the government and the Fed pulling in the same direction. By contrast, some economists have argued that at present the government and the Fed are pulling in opposite direction, with fiscal policy loose at a time when interest rates remain high in comparison with many other major economies.
  • Quantitative Easing (QE) has now become commonplace and describes central bank purchasing of government and other securities from the markets to boost the money supply and encourage spending.
  • Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control is a variant introduced by the Bank of Japan in 2016 when QE proved insufficient to boost inflation.
  • Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) were designed by the European Central Bank to offer long-term funding at attractive conditions to banks in order to ease privatesector credit conditions and stimulate bank lending to the real economy.

The importance of such measures can be seen in the following chart, which shows how the announcement of the first series of TLTROs by the ECB in June 2014 led to a prolonged slide in EURUSD.

EURUSD Price Chart, Weekly Timeframe (November 11, 2013 – June 27, 2019)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

How Central Banks Impact the Forex Market

The lesson for traders is therefore clear: central banks and governments both influence markets. Policy announcements therefore need to be monitored closely – and never more so than when there are fears of a downturn turning into a global recession.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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5 Reasons Why You Should Respond to All Your Reviews

Posted: 04 Jul 2019 11:00 AM PDT

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Would you do business with your own company? If you searched for your company by its brand name and added the word “reviews” at the end, would you be happy with what people are saying?

Competition is fierce in today’s digital age, with nearly every business claiming the best products and services and touting fantastic customer service. How then do people decide which company they’re going to do business with?

The answer is customer reviews, and it’s why my business offers an affordable reputation software solution that makes it easy to do online reputation marketing. Notice that I didn’t say online reputation management. The truth is that managing your brand’s reputation is essential but marketing it is critical for the success of any business.

To improve your online reputation marketing efforts, you can simply start by responding to all your existing customer reviews. Sadly, this is one of the most neglected and under-utilized online reputation marketing strategies around, yet it’s one of the easiest to execute. Here are five reasons why you want to respond to every single customer review.

1. Let the world know you care about every customer, not just the ones who complain.

I see companies make this mistake every single day. As you research a company and read its reviews, you’ll hopefully see some positive reviews. Suddenly, you discover a negative review, and that’s when the business finally decides to take the time to respond. It’s really a shame. The business is rewarding someone’s negative comments with their time and attention, instead of replying and showing appreciation to all the customers who took the time to share a positive review of the business. 

What does it say about your business when people see positive reviews ignored, but then see a lengthy response to a bad review? It says your business cares more about your reputation than about your customers and their experiences. The truth hurts, doesn’t it? 

That’s the real difference between reputation management and reputation marketing. The business is managing a negative review, instead of marketing its brand using all the reviews. If you thoughtfully respond to all your online customer reviews, you can market to your existing customers and attract new customers as well.

Here’s a tip about replying to positive reviews. Don’t just respond with a simple “Thanks!” or “We appreciate you.” Instead, personalize your response where appropriate and possible, so your customers know you took the time to compose a sincere and meaningful reply. You might think that you can’t afford the investment of time to respond to all reviews. However, when you invest the time, it will provide you with a positive ROI every time.

2. Increase the lifetime value of your customers.

When you respond to your customers’ reviews, you are given the golden opportunity to market to your existing customers. Did you know that when you respond to a customer review the customer will know that you replied? Most review platforms notify customers when the business responds to their review. This is an easy way to make your existing clients feel appreciated, and they are much more likely to become repeat customers. 

Too many business owners and entrepreneurs are so focused on acquiring new customers that they ignore their existing ones. Do you believe a customer will be more inclined to do business with you again and refer you to new customers when you express your gratitude publicly to their positive review? Exactly.

Editor’s note: Looking for the right online reputation management service for your business? Fill out the below questionnaire to have our vendor partners contact you about your needs.

 

3. Enhance Your SEO efforts.

Every time a customer reviews your business, whether good or bad, it’s your opportunity to provide additional SEO value for your business. Search engines like Google, Bing, and Yahoo crawl the internet to find new information so they can provide the most recent and relevant content for their users. When you respond to each customer review, you can add context about your customers’ experience with your business. 

Let’s say that you are a plastic surgeon in Maryland and a happy patient just posted a glowing review online. You could reply, “Thanks for the great review! We are constantly striving to be the best cosmetic surgeons we can be. I’m so grateful you chose our practice. If you need help or have any questions, call our Maryland office anytime. Remember, you also have my private cell phone number and can reach me anytime, 24/7, if it’s urgent.”

Did you notice how I mentioned the keywords “best cosmetic surgeons” and “Maryland” in the reply? This is additional relevant content that will enhance the SEO value of that review page, especially for your Google local business listing. Google specifically states in its help system that reviews can improve your listings’ visibility in its results.

Warning: don’t overdo it with the keywords in your replies. Otherwise, Google and other search engines may penalize your listing, and you could potentially offend your client or patient if they feel like your response isn’t authentic. Remember, these responses are public for everyone to see. The good news is you can add to, edit, or update your replies at any time.

4. Protect your business reputation with trust and transparency.

When you fail to implement a reputation marketing system in your business, you’re leaving yourself vulnerable to attack. If you are neglecting your online reputation, all it takes is one or two bad reviews to cripple your business. Did you know that just one bad review can cost your business as much as 22% of prospective customers? Your potential to lose customers skyrockets to 59.2% if people find three negative articles or reviews about your brand. 

However, if you’re actively marketing your brand reputation and requesting online reviews, you can drown one or more negative review in a sea of positive reviews. Remember, in today’s digital age, consumers are well-educated. Most people know that you cannot please 100% of the people 100% of the time. Your competition likely has a negative review or two, as well. The key is having dozens or hundreds of positive reviews to outweigh the negative ones. When you combine positive reviews with personalized responses to all your reviews, you are creating an impenetrable fortress around your brand’s reputation.

The fact is when people see dozens of positive reviews and an occasional negative review; they are likely to discount the negative review – especially if the business has replied to all the reviews with sincere honesty and transparency. People understand that companies make mistakes and can even empathize with them in certain situations. It’s critical that if you or an employee makes a mistake that you own it and take responsibility. People will understand and forgive you if you craft appropriate and thoughtful apologies to your negative reviewers. 

Many times, it’s your responses that will attract new customers to your business. When they see you responding to all your clients and observe how you handle difficult situations, most people will trust you to do a good job or to do the right thing if you don’t.

5. Attract new customers who post reviews.

2017 study found that 78% of consumers trust online reviews as much as personal recommendations. That’s why it’s critical to implement a reputation marketing strategy that helps you develop trust with your prospective customers.

As you earn more reviews for your business and consistently reply to them, prospective customers will see why they should choose you over your competition. They will see that you care about all your customers. As a result, more people will trust your business, and you will become the clear leader in your marketplace.

When you invite your new customers to share reviews about their experiences online, simply remind them why they chose your company. Your odds of getting your new clients to post a review online are substantially higher since it was customer reviews that attracted them to your business in the first place. Of course, this only works if you deliver on your promises and do good work.

Bonus tip: How to handle negative reviews.

Most entrepreneurs and business leaders make every effort to satisfy and please the customer. However, no matter how hard you try, sometimes it just doesn’t happen and your business is forced to address a negative online review. When that happens, it’s crucial to consult with people you trust who have legitimate business experience and acumen before you respond. The last thing you want to do is to reply in an emotional state of distress or anger.

Instead, think of how you can reply in an authentic and meaningful way without compromising your integrity. Let’s face the truth: some customers will try to sabotage your business to get free products and services or to simply get attention. Don’t let this happen to you. Stay true to your core values and do your best to reply in a professional and thoughtful manner.

Here’s an example of how we coached a client to respond to a negative review. One of our clients found a negative review that labeled their chiropractic clinic as “another cattle-in and cattle-out operation.” Ouch! The business owner wanted to share a fun and light-hearted response and wasn’t afraid to repel people who didn’t resonate with his message. After careful consideration and discussion, we decided to create a video response using a humorous, yet authentic, approach and posted it on Facebook. Remember, it’s okay to have a sense of humor in business, as long as you are genuine and sincere.

We got thousands of views and lots of positive feedback from the business’s Facebook fans. However, this reputation marketing strategy could have backfired if the business did not have dozens of five-star reviews. This is why every entrepreneur must be laser-focused on building a five-star online reputation for their business and brand.

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