The most innocent man ever in the White House

Bill Bonner’s Diary

The Most Innocent Man Ever in the White House

By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners

Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Poor Donald Trump.

The Chinese won’t play ball with him. The Democrats are trying to impeach him. And now, other world leaders are laughing at him!

L.A. Times:

President Trump, who views norms like a teenager does curfews, shattered another tradition Wednesday when he became the first U.S. president to be laughed at by some of America’s closest allies at a NATO summit, a sign of his increasing isolation on the world stage.

Great Moqueur

The great moqueur is being mocked. But so what? The Donald was elected to break up the status quo. Naturally, a lot of people don’t like it.

And many readers will be tempted to pile on… to carp and criticize…

Others will prefer to compare Mr. Trump to Woodrow Wilson, whom Europe’s leaders also mocked. When Mr. Wilson showed up in Paris after WWI, with his Fourteen Points in hand, French prime minister Georges Clemenceau tittered that even God himself only had 10.

But like all of us, the president has his strengths and his weaknesses. The problem, from our cynical point of view, is that his strengths are soft and hollow; his weaknesses, on the other hand, are hard as granite.

His strengths are his bull-headishness… his reckless disregard for experts, criticism, and convention… and his willingness to go head-to-head with the Deep State and its sanctimonious promoters, such as Hillary Clinton.

Applied consistently and intelligently, The Donald might actually have drained a little greasy water from the Swamp… extricated U.S. soldiers from the pointless wars of the Middle East… dumped a few jackasses from the federal payroll… and trimmed the national debt.

His weaknesses, alas, get in his way. He never seems to understand what he is doing or where he is going. He watches TV and changes course. He charges ahead… then retreats. He fires off an attack in one direction… and then in another.

Waste of Time

For example, he was right when he said NATO is a waste of time. But now he tries to build it up. The Associated Press:

Trump, looking to showcase foreign policy wins as he heads into an election year, offered a more optimistic outlook for NATO’s future.

He says he wants to pull out of the forever wars… and ends up adding to them. Foreign Affairs:

“Great nations do not fight endless wars,” Trump declared in his 2019 State of the Union address. “We’re bringing our troops back home,” he boasted during a cabinet meeting in October. “I got elected on bringing our soldiers back home.”

But after nearly three years in office, Trump’s promised retrenchment has yet to materialize. […]

In the final months of Obama’s presidency, approximately 198,000 active duty U.S. military personnel were deployed overseas, according to the Pentagon’s Defense Manpower Data Center. By comparison, the most recent figure for the Trump administration is 174,000 active duty troops. But even that difference reflects an accounting trick.

Beginning in December 2017, the Defense Department started excluding troops deployed to Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria from its official reports, citing a vague need to “protect our forces.” When the estimated troop levels for those three countries are added back in, the current total is around 194,000–roughly equivalent to the number Trump inherited.

He promises to drain the Swamp… and pay off the national debt. Then, like a fallen woman who pledges to have no more babies out of wedlock, he hops into bed with every lobbyist and big-ticket donor in Washington. It is as if he never knew where babies came from.

And so, the Swamp grows deeper… and the national debt rises, even faster than under Obama. The Balance:

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years. Instead, his budgets would add $9.1 trillion during that time. It would increase the U.S. debt to $29 trillion according to Trump’s budget estimates.

By contrast, according to The Balance, Obama’s budgets added a total of $8.6 trillion.

Big-Shot POTUS

The more tweets we read… the more we’re persuaded that Trump has never been truly dishonest or two-faced. That would require self-awareness and careful calculation.

Instead, his life as a big-shot developer, billionaire, and media star taught him to say things that sounded daring and decisive. But they were just words to him; it didn’t matter what they meant.

A tree drops its leaves on the ground, but it can’t be charged with littering.

And Donald J. Trump… mocked and maligned as evil, grasping, and incompetent… and probably guilty on hundreds of counts of bad judgement, negligence, high crimes, and misdemeanors… may actually be the most innocent creature ever to nest in the White House.

Regards,

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Bill

Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.

POSTCARDS FROM THE FRINGE: OUR SIMPLE STRATEGY TO GET RICH OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

Maria’s Note: Maria Bonaventura here, managing editor of the Diary. Today we turn to Tom Dyson, the man who went “all in” on gold after Bill shared the Dow-to-Gold trading model with him.

For the past 18 months, Tom has been traveling around the world with his kids, his ex-wife (but soon-to-be-wife-again) Kate, and a suitcase in tow.

Below, writing from his latest stop in Japan, Tom breaks down his 20-year investment strategy. It’s a lot simpler than you might imagine… if you have the willpower…


By Tom Dyson, Editor, Postcards From the Fringe

Tom Dyson

FUKUOKA, JAPAN – We are hobos. We drift from town to town like leaves in the wind, looking for cheap digs and high-speed internet. When we find somewhere we like, we stay a few days…

We got on a train today without knowing where we’d get off.

First we thought we’d go to Hiroshima. But Hiroshima came and went. (We did end up in Hiroshima a few days later. I wrote about that – and why “dark” tourism with the kids is important to us – here.)

Then we thought we’d go to the end of the line, a place called Kagoshima, near the bottom of Japan. But it was getting late, and it seemed like it might rain, so we got off in Fukuoka.

I dropped the family off at a restaurant in the train station and went to look for somewhere for us to stay.

Back to that in a moment. First, this is our simple strategy for getting rich with public investments over the next 20 years…

Buy the stocks of the best dividend-raising companies in the world when everyone else is selling them. (This happens once every decade or two.) Then wait.

Do nothing. Read some books. Start a new hobby. Go fishing.

Then, when everyone’s euphoric and buying stocks, sell. And turn it all into gold. (This also happens once every decade or two.) Then wait.

Do nothing. Read some books. Start a new hobby. Go fishing.

Right now, stocks are EXTREMELY overvalued. As in, breaking records. This is one of those rare times when you sell stocks and turn it all into gold.

Kate and I sold it all and turned everything into gold last year. Now we’re waiting for the moment when everyone hates stocks and wants to sell.

I CONSERVATIVELY expect to quadruple our money over the next nine years. And then quadruple it again over the following 10 years.

The first quadruple comes from the Dow-to-Gold ratio falling from 19 – where it is today – to below 5. Bill calls this the ratio’s rendezvous with destiny. (In today’s mailbag below, I answer some of your recent questions about the Dow-to-Gold ratio.)

The second quadruple comes from the effect of buying the world’s best dividend-raising stocks at low valuations and compounding growing dividends for another 10 years.

In the meantime, I’m going “fishing.”

I found an apartment for us without any trouble. It’s clean, comfortable, and in a good location, and it has high-speed internet. I think we’ll stay here for a few days…

Tom Dyson

P.S. Our travels continue over at my Postcards From the Fringe letter. I send a new postcard out every weekday at 7 p.m. ET, and I’d love to have you on board. Just enter your email address here and watch your inbox tomorrow for the next one.

P.P.S. Do you have a question or comment for me? Please write me at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com. Kate and I read every message you send us, and I’ll do my best to reply in my next postcard.

FEATURED READS

Preparing for Trump’s December Tariffs
Trump’s trade war with China wages on. He plans to add more tariffs to Chinese imports on December 15 if the country doesn’t agree to some semblance of a trade deal. But these American companies are controlling costs ahead of time to limit price increases for you, the consumer.

Economists Express Slight Caution for 2020
Bill has been writing about America’s slowing economy. His “Doom Index” even flashed a warning. And now, the mainstream media is also getting worried about what’s next for the U.S. economy in 2020…

Stop Trying to Be a “Master of the Universe”
Former $1 billion hedge fund manager Larry Benedict shares a simple insight that has made him successful as a trader over the past 35 years…

MAILBAG

Dear Readers want to know more from Bill’s colleague Tom Dyson about the Dow-to-Gold ratio. And Tom has the answers…

Reader question: Tom, if the Dow-to-Gold ratio you are targeting is reached by gold standing still and the Dow collapsing as in 1929, will you still prosper, or should you have shorted stocks? (Note that by several valuation measures, the market has only been more expensive in 1929 and/or 2000.)

– Gary M.

Tom Dyson’s response: Yes, I will still prosper because I will have preserved my purchasing power in gold, and I’ll be able to buy 5x the number of shares in the great dividend-raising stocks I want, i.e., my purchasing power will have gone up 400%.

Reader question: If the Dow, near record highs, were to stay near the same level, gold would have to reach about $5,500 per ounce to hit your magic number of 5. That seems to be quite a reach! Enjoy your posts.

– Jeffrey T.

Tom Dyson’s response: Doesn’t seem like a reach to me. When the market starts sensing inflation – the type of inflation that undermines bond and savings account returns and gives pensioners anxiety – trillions of dollars will stampede into gold. It’ll be carnage.

Meanwhile, another Dear Reader turns to what Bill described as Trump’s “trade war bazooka,” after the president “sweated up another trade war – this time with Brazil and Argentina”…

In my view, this is nothing more than a disguised retaliation for Brazilian President Bolsonaro and Chinese President Xi Jinping “dating,” which intensified at the BRICS Summit on November 14 in Brasília.

Brazil has no restrictions on Huawei’s 5G network and encourages Chinese infrastructure investments. China is buying many agricultural and beef products from Brazil, jeopardizing business from American farmers. All this must have made Trump very angry, leading to the punishment of the Brazilian steel industry.

The “currency manipulation” justification for the tax increase made by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is fragile and misleading.

– Francisco A.

Is Trump’s trade war disguised retaliation, as Francisco says? Write us at feedback@bonnerandpartners.com.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

It’s NOT Bragging If It’s True (New Briefing Reveals His Next Big Prediction)

The man who called the #1 best stock of 2016 and 2018 is at it again. He says a federal agency that regulates more than $2.6 trillion annually… along with the brightest minds at Harvard and MIT… have just unlocked the single greatest tech breakthrough of his career.

A small-cap stock is now set to soar up to 1,000%... in just one day. But that’s not all. Within 12 months, it could turn a tiny stake into an entire nest egg. And it could start as soon as 9:30 AM tomorrow.

Click here to see his new big prediction.

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