How to Profit From Pandemics

February 29, 2020  Read in Browser

Stock Up? More like Stock Down. Global markets face-planted early in the week and never quite found their footing. On the bright side, this week celebrated Mardi Gras, National Pancake Day, and International Polar Bear Day... so it can't be all that bad.

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WEEKLY MARKET PERFORMANCE

S&P 500
📉 $2,954.22 (-11.49%)

NASDAQ
📉 8,567.37 (-10.53%)

Dow 30
📉 25,409.36 (-12.36%)

10-Year US Treasury
📉 1.13% (-0.34bps)

Crude Oil
📉 $45.35 (-15.00%)

Bitcoin
📉 $8,666.27 (-10.71%)

Market data - as of February 29, 2020.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Nothing Novel About This Coronavirus

Vial of Coronavirus Vaccine

Source: Getty Images

Calling in sick. Stocks were rocked early in the week as the World Health Organization warned about the widening reach of the novel coronavirus. There are now confirmed cases of the COVID-19 illness in all continents but Antartica, including dozens of U.S. cases.

The S&P 500 declined 6.3% as stocks sold off on Monday and Tuesday, the market's largest two-day slide since 2015. The rest of the week wasn't any better. Any uncontained virus is scary stuff, but let's boil it all down to a couple takeaways we can process as investors, consumers, and well wishers in these uncertain times.

  • This has always been a global event. The outbreak may have originated in China, but we're all too interconnected for the business impact to stay there. Travel companies of all types are getting slammed. We've seen tech giants including Apple warn about potential supply chain concerns for weeks. Disney's theme parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong have remained closed since late January. And that's just scratching the surface.
  • Counterintuitively, there are investing opportunities even in a market deluge. Shares of videoconferencing speedster Zoom Video, premium workout specialist Peloton, and telemedicine leader Teladoc — three companies that provide in-home alternatives for common drive-to activities — bucked the malaise by moving higher on Monday. When Wall Street's woes continued into Tuesday all three stocks moved higher that day as well.

Playing the long game. There is no silver lining when considering an illness that has already claimed thousands of lives, but we will eventually overcome the outbreak. Volatility will linger until the virus is contained.

INVESTING

Even Oracles Need Succession Plans

Warren Buffett

Source: Motley Fool

From the desk of Warren Buffett. The annual Berkshire Hathaway letter to shareholders rolled out this past weekend, giving us mere mortals a chance to hang out in the mind of arguably the greatest investor of our generation. Chairman Warren Buffett is 89 years old, so we never know when these honest annual masterpieces will come to an end.

An important tidbit came near the end of the 14-page letter, detailing plans for the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting that will take place on May 2. Buffett and partner Charlie Munger — who at 96 makes Buffett the relative spring chicken in this dynamic investing duo — routinely spend hours tackling shareholder questions. Buffett is now revealing that the upcoming springtime shareholder event will find Ajit Jain and Greg Abel – two key operating managers watching over Berkshire's insurance and energy realms, respectively – joining Buffett and Munger for the popular Q&A session.

Sharing the stage. Tens of thousands of investors make the trek to Omaha to enjoy the shareholder festivities every year. Having Jain and Abel alongside Buffett and Munger this time could be tipping Berkshire Hathaway's hand as to who will eventually replace Buffett and Munger at the helm. Buffett likely has no intentions of stepping down anytime soon, but showcasing other thought leaders at his company is important in easing investor concerns about the future of Berkshire Hathaway.

ENTERTAINMENT

The House of Mouse Bob

Disney CEO

Source: Walt Disney

Leaving a legacy. It took four delayed retirement plans, but Bob Iger's reign over Walt Disney has officially come to an end — and the timing is definitely a surprise! The now previous CEO is immediately shifting into the role of Executive Chairman and will "direct the company's creative endeavors" through 2021.

  • Over Bob Iger's 15-year tenure, Disney's revenue doubled, profits quadrupled, and the stock quintupled. Not a bad run.
  • He also spearhead the acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, BAMTech, and 21st Century Fox.

One Bob out, another Bob in. Bob Chapek is Disney's seventh CEO in the company's 97-year history. Chapek has worked at Disney for 27 of those years, leading teams across various divisions: head of entertainment, head of distribution, a movie studio executive, and, mostly recently, the head of parks and resorts. Disney is an incredibly complex business, so Chapek will spend the next 22 months working with Iger to learn the full ropes. Best of luck to both Bobs.

M&A

The Facebook of Fintech

Credit Score

Source: Getty Images

There's no such thing as a free lunch. In exchange for "free" credit reports and data breach monitoring, over 100 million users allow Credit Karma to offer them targeted credit cards, loans, and more. When referrals convert, Credit Karma gets paid.

Intuit wants in and is looking to acquire Credit Karma for approximately $7 billion in cash and stock. That's a record-size deal for Intuit, but it'll fit nicely into the company's growing collection of services: Mint, QuickBooks, and TurboTax.

The big picture: This deal is more about acquiring users than acquiring capabilities. Instead of letting Credit Karma grow as a competitor, Intuit will be able to 1) capture a new large audience, and 2) cross-sell more aggressively. Just like Facebook's acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, consolidating user bases is a great way for one company to gain ground, but it's detrimental to the broader competitive landscape.

Should Intuit investors be pleased? Probably. Should consumers? Ehhh... Intuit may provide useful services, but it's hard to love a company that historically lobbies for complex tax laws and makes it hard to find free-tiered solutions.

WHAT ELSE WE'RE WATCHING
  • Turnover: MasterCard, Salesforce, and Thomson Reuters are also swapping out CEOs.
  • Sci-Fact: Amazon just opened its first full-sized cashierless grocery store and wants to license the tech.
  • Cannibalization: Shake Shack is adding more locations to cities it already operates in. The result? A 5.4% drop in traffic and weaker margins. Ouch.
  • Censorship: A federal appeals court unanimously ruled that private tech platforms aren't restricted by the First Amendment.
VIDEO

Best Blue Chip Stocks to Buy Now

Motley Fool Money

Source: Getty Images

Wild volatility isn't for everyone... and that's OK! If you're the "I want to sleep well at night" type of investor — whether just beginning or retiring — we got you covered. Click here to watch the full discussion on our YouTube channel.

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