We’ve Only Seen This Pattern Twice

Jeff Clark's Market Minute

We've Only Seen This Pattern Twice

By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute

You don’t have to remember 2000. But, you should remember three weeks ago. That’s when we pointed out a rare event that could possibly signal the END of this remarkable, stock market rally.

Actually, it was the folks over at Sentimenttrader.com that pointed out the event. We merely speculated on what might happen next based on what happened in 2000.

On March 7, 2000, the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) rallied more than 2% intraday, then reversed to close down more than 1%. That was the only time – ever – that had happened. Three weeks later, the bubble burst and stocks started to cascade lower.

Here’s the chart of the NDX from back in 2000 that I showed you three weeks ago…

The blue circle shows the day of the rare event. Take note of the action following that day. The NDX moved slightly higher right away. Then it suffered a pullback before rallying again to another all-time high. But, that rally occurred with negative divergence on the MACD indicator. In other words, as the NDX moved higher, the MACD moved lower.

Negative divergence is often an early warning sign of a potential change in trend. And, in this case, the divergence – three weeks following such a rare intraday reversal – marked the top of the NDX bull market in 2000.

Let’s fast forward to today – three weeks following only the second time ever, the NDX suffered such a rare, intraday reversal. Here’s the current chart…

The action is so similar it’s almost spooky. 

Granted… we don’t want to draw too big a conclusion based on something that has only happened two times in history. 

But, given all of the other giant, caution signs in the market – like the rampant speculative activity in the penny stocks, the extremely low CBOE put/call ratio, and the numerous technical divergences – traders should probably pay close attention to the similarities in this current chart of NDX and the chart from 2000.

There’s no question the index is overdue for at least a mild decline after such an amazing rally. And, if the similarities to 2000 continue, then there could be a much more significant decline headed our way.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Reader Mailbag

Today we share a note of thanks from Jeff Clark Trader member Joe…

Jeff, I am reminded of that story in the Bible where ten lepers are healed of the dreaded disease, but only one went back to say thank you. I am, in a sense, not only a “digital immigrant,” but I’m an options “leper” as well. I have read and tried to make the options definitions stick. I often describe the idea of puts akin to driving on the other side of the road in New Zealand where my wife is from. It can be done only with a lot of focused, intentional thinking, and concentration.

That is to say that I am so grateful to you for putting together your printed materials on your Guide to Options Trading (Jeff Clark Trader members can access here). It’s without a doubt the most concise and clear presentation I have read to date, and I have read literally dozens.

They all had a part in helping me understand the basic concepts, but your wonderful presentation allowed all that studying to finally gel in a way that is actually now retrievable. I can’t recall a single illustration from before that could rest on its own merit. But yours actually found its way to my frontal lobe where it resides, so that it’s easily retrievable.

Thank you. And Thank you again.

– Joe

Thank you, as always, for your thoughtful comments. We look forward to reading them every day. Keep them coming – and send us any questions – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com.

In Case You Missed It…

The Truth About "MAGA-nomics" They Don't Want You to Know

President Trump worked tirelessly to build our economy into the envy of the world.

In the first three years of his presidency…

Unemployment hit a 50-year low...

The stock market hit record high after record high…

For the first time in history, several U.S. companies – Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google – were valued at over $1 trillion each – making investors incredible fortunes…

Fidelity Investments reported a record number of 401(k) millionaires under President Trump.

In fact, over the first two years of his presidency, more than 1.5 million everyday Americans became millionaires… An average of 2,161 new millionaires a day… More than under any other president in history…

So we’ve already seen the proof. President Trump running America the way he runs his business works.

In the aftermath of the COVID economic crisis… what he may have in store for Americans could send shockwaves through our economy.

Take a few moments to watch the video below and make up your own mind…

image

Get Instant Access

Click to read these free reports and automatically sign up for daily research.

image

How You Can Start Profiting From Maganomics Today

image

The Ultimate Guide to Taking Back Your Privacy

image

Trading Basics: Two Building Blocks Every Trader MUST Know

Jeff Clark Trader
55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483
www.jeffclarktrader.com

To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please add our email address to your address book.

This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to phanhoa1821960.trader@blogger.com because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click here.

Jeff Clark Trader welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice.

To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-752-0820, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us here.

© 2020 Omnia Research, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution of our content, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Omnia Research, LLC.

Privacy Policy | Terms of Use

No comments:

Post a Comment