Belief in the market cycle is one of the emotional states that shows strong buying activity at the initial stage.
Belief is good in the sense that it's confirmation of an increase in volume and price. And that increase in volume and price is controlled by major events and market metrics.
This allows you to gauge the right entry point and your position.
When the Hype is Real
Take bitcoin for example…
Billionaire and venture capitalist Tim Draper "broke the internet" by predicting that the price of bitcoin will hit $250,000 by 2023. Even though the prediction seems bold, that's an experienced whale trader sharing that belief. And it lends a lot of credibility and serves as an endorsement to bitcoin.
And with that type of belief from mega-traders and corporations, they are bound to drive up the volume and price over time during certain cycles.
According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone bitcoin went into the belief phase because it's outperformed the stock market in 2020. This is because most bitcoin traders have confirmed bitcoin as a gold-like value as opposed to fiat currency that isn't backed by anything.
By May 1, bitcoin was up over 20 percent and experts are starting to see it as a long term asset. This is as present as ever despite the crisis of a global pandemic.
Seeing is Believing
Now if you have certain securities that are initially doing well in the market and you believe that it will continue to do so.
Keep in mind, nothing lasts forever and at some point anxiety in the market cycle will set in.
Do not get complacent and think things will be smooth sailing from here on out. Do not get greedy and change your position size that's not in line with your trading strategy.
The market cycle works like a deck of cards in a round of poker.
You don't know what you're going to get but you can determine the probability of what you're going to get.
So always refer to your trading strategies and goals for reference.
And then make your bets accordingly.
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