Happy Labor Day!

Hawkeye Traders Logo

Hey Trader,

Happy Labor Day!

I usually like to spend this time reflecting on all the work I've done over the course of the year so that I can plot a course of action to finish the year strong.

How do you guys like to spend the Labor Day holiday?

Or if you're not American, what are some similar holidays that you observe?

To Big Profits and Beyond,

Anthony Speciale Jr

Editor, Big Energy Profits

Hawkeye Traders
team1@hawkeyetraders.com
hawkeyetraders.com

Crude News

The bearish news is beginning to pile up with low U.S. fuel demand the main catalyst behind the weakness. The news that China would limit demand crude oil purchases came as a surprise as well as reports saying that Middle East distillates at Asia's oil hub in Singapore have soared above a nine-year high.

Looking ahead, rising coronavirus cases worldwide and renewed lockdowns would further dash hopes of a major drawdown in oil stocks for some time. At this time, the pressure remains on refiners to keep operating rates low.

The drop in prices probably means U.S. producers will curtail their plans to ramp up production as they discover that they have control over supply, but can't really do anything about the weak demand.

Furthermore, any hope that a weaker U.S. Dollar would help ramp up foreign demand has been diminished with the greenback starting to rise from more than two-year lows. Although there are some who say it really doesn't matter where the dollar is priced since there is plenty of supply available.

Essentially, as long as October WTI crude oil remains under $42.01, our bias will be to the downside with a minimum objective of $39.00 over the short-run.

How to Master Market Cycle Psychology:

The Belief Phase

Belief in the market cycle is one of the emotional states that shows strong buying activity at the initial stage.

Belief is good in the sense that it's confirmation of an increase in volume and price. And that increase in volume and price is controlled by major events and market metrics.

This allows you to gauge the right entry point and your position.

When the Hype is Real

Take bitcoin for example…

Billionaire and venture capitalist Tim Draper "broke the internet" by predicting that the price of bitcoin will hit $250,000 by 2023. Even though the prediction seems bold, that's an experienced whale trader sharing that belief. And it lends a lot of credibility and serves as an endorsement to bitcoin.

And with that type of belief from mega-traders and corporations, they are bound to drive up the volume and price over time during certain cycles.

According to Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone bitcoin went into the belief phase because it's outperformed the stock market in 2020. This is because most bitcoin traders have confirmed bitcoin as a gold-like value as opposed to fiat currency that isn't backed by anything.

By May 1, bitcoin was up over 20 percent and experts are starting to see it as a long term asset. This is as present as ever despite the crisis of a global pandemic.

Seeing is Believing

Now if you have certain securities that are initially doing well in the market and you believe that it will continue to do so.

Keep in mind, nothing lasts forever and at some point anxiety in the market cycle will set in.

Do not get complacent and think things will be smooth sailing from here on out. Do not get greedy and change your position size that's not in line with your trading strategy.

The market cycle works like a deck of cards in a round of poker.

You don't know what you're going to get but you can determine the probability of what you're going to get.

So always refer to your trading strategies and goals for reference.

And then make your bets accordingly.

"Base Hit" Trades Win More Profits For Traders

We all love swinging for the fences.

It's every trader's dream to swing big and knock a trade out of the park.

Get in at the exact bottom… Watch the value grow 53%, 119%, 348%... Cash out at the exact top… HOMERUN!

It's easy to get wrapped up in the idea of hitting a home run trade.

After all, It seems like the fastest and easiest way to win more profits...

But there is a truth hidden from most traders that almost every baseball player knows.

Base Hits Win Ball Games.

Click Here To Discover How You Can Land More Base Hit Wins

Weekly Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $43.78 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through the main bottom at $23.26. This is highly unlikely but there is room to the downside for a normal 50% to 61.8% correction.

The main range is $60.75 to $23.26. Its 50% to 61.80% retracement zone at $42.01 to $46.43 is the major resistance.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $39.00 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is $23.26 to $43.78. If the minor trend changes to down then look for a possible break into its retracement zone at $33.52 to $31.10 over the near-term. This will probably attract buyers since it is a value area.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week's price action, the direction of the September WTI crude oil market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $42.01.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $42.01 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor bottom at $39.00. Taking out this level could trigger a further decline into $33.52 over the near-term.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $42.01 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the minor high at $43.78. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside since the weekly chart indicates there is no resistance until $46.43.

Call us: (888) 233-8598

Click here to update your email preferences. If you do not wish to receive any further emails from Hawkeye Traders please click the Unsubscribe link at the bottom of this email.

DISCLAIMER: * Futures, stocks, and spot currency trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures, stocks, and forex markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or forex. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. Past performance of indicators or methodology are not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC Regulation 4.41 These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

We'll always treat your personal information with the utmost care and will never sell it to third parties. You can find out more about what data we hold about you, why we need it, and how we keep that information safe in our Privacy Policy.

If you no longer wish to receive our emails, click this link: Unsubscribe

Hawkeye Traders LLC 14422 Shoreside Way Suite 110-160 Winter Garden, Florida 34787 United States

No comments:

Post a Comment