Is Your Portfolio Ready for the End of the Pandemic?

SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES

The Oxford Club Special Opportunities

Is Your Portfolio Ready for the End of the Pandemic?

Matt Benjamin | Senior Macroeconomic Analyst | The Oxford Club

Are you ready for the end of COVID-19?

And I don't mean it that way. Of course, we're all utterly and completely over this horrible pandemic and the havoc wreaked on our society, our economy and our families.

No, I'm asking if your portfolio is ready for it. Because investing during the pandemic and investing after it has subsided will be quite different.

We actually got a vivid glimpse of that stark difference early this week, when news broke that Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is closing in on a potentially extremely effective COVID-19 vaccine.

That glorious bit of news moved the minds of investors forward to a post-pandemic market, and you could see exactly what they plan to do once this pandemic is finally behind us.

But a picture tells this story the best. And for that, I turn to my favorite market tracker, courtesy of our friends at Finviz.

 
Christmas Sweater Chart
 

While that vibrant mix of bright red and neon green resembles an unfortunate Christmas sweater, it also clearly illustrates the dramatic market rotation we expect to see once a vaccine is rolling out and we're bidding a (not so fond) farewell to COVID-19.

As you can see from the graphic, the Pfizer news sent investors fleeing from mega-tech stocks, like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), and toward stocks expected to thrive in a post-pandemic world. These include stocks in the aerospace industry, like Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Raytheon (NYSE: RTX), and industrials, like General Electric (NYSE: GE) and 3M (NYSE: MMM).

And, of course, healthcare stocks, like Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN), also popped on the news from Pfizer.

Investors also made strong moves into small cap stocks on Monday and Tuesday of this week. You could see this in small cap exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: TNA) and the ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (NYSE: UWM). Each of those ETFs soared more than 10%.

Meanwhile, the NYSE FANG+ Index, which tracks 10 highly traded tech giants, is down more than 4% since Friday.

 
Tech Sector Chart
 

Mega-tech stocks have been considered defensive plays during the COVID-19 crisis. As a result, those trades have become overcrowded... And when the market sees light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel, it's widely expected that these mega-tech stocks will give up some of the massive gains they've made over the last eight months.

The Name's Bond

Rotating into other sectors and small cap and value stocks is certainly in the cards, but I'd like to suggest another asset class that every investor should consider.

And that would be bonds. They're an excellent and ultrasafe way to balance and stabilize your portfolio and gain a steady income stream.

Bonds, of course, are loans to the company that issues them, and that company is legally bound to repay your principal in full on maturity. Sure, the price of the bond may rise and fall while you hold it, but in the end, you are guaranteed all of your principal back, plus all the interest payments you've received.

The only instance when your principal wouldn't be returned is if the company were to go bankrupt. But that is extremely rare. Even in times of extreme economic distress, the default rate of investment-grade bonds is far below 1%, and in normal times, it's closer to 0.1%.

Yields on investment-grade bonds over the past two years have ranged from about 2.9% to 4.5% - on an investment that is extremely safe compared with stocks. Speculative bonds have delivered yields that are much higher, ranging from 5.5% to 7.5%. That's the premium the bondholder gets for taking on a bit more risk of default.

According to a recent paper out of Columbia Business School, "Corporate bonds represent an ideally positioned asset class: They balance... investor demand for safe assets and... reach for yield."

But I'm not the expert on bonds. That would be Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld. He can tell you much more about the extremely appealing combination of yield and safety that bonds can deliver to you.

Just click here to learn all about his strategy.

It's yet another way we at The Oxford Club want to help you survive and thrive, during and after the pandemic.

Enjoy your weekend and stay safe,

Matt

 

No comments:

Post a Comment