But Templeton also had the savvy to exit markets when they got expensive. He sold out of Japan well before the stock market peaked in 1989. Templeton's investment philosophy was simple. Buy superior stocks at cheap price points of "maximum pessimism." As Templeton noted in a Forbes interview in 1995: People are always asking me where the outlook is good, but that's the wrong question. The right question is "Where is the outlook most miserable?"
This advice is simple to understand - but not easy to implement. My favorite Templeton anecdote is his bet against the U.S. dot-com bubble in 1999. Templeton famously predicted that 90% of then-new internet companies would be bankrupt within five years. He very publicly shorted the U.S. tech sector in December 1999, just three months before its collapse. So Templeton made his biggest fortune investing in Japan over decades. But he made his quickest fortune by shorting U.S. dot-com stocks. Templeton the Philanthropist Templeton took his company public in 1959 when it had only five funds and $66 million under management. He eventually sold his Templeton Investments to Franklin Resources for $913 million in 1992. Cashing out allowed Templeton to focus his final years on philanthropy. He endowed Templeton College at Oxford. And his Templeton Foundation distributes $150 million annually to study "what scientists and philosophers call the Big Questions." He also established the Templeton Prize in 1972. It recognizes achievement in work related to science, philosophy and spirituality. Past winners include Mother Teresa, Billy Graham, Desmond Tutu and the Dalai Lama. Templeton's Rational Optimism What I find refreshing about Templeton is his rational optimism. And this applies to financial markets as well. Barton Biggs, the former global strategist for Morgan Stanley, interviewed Templeton in 2001. Templeton predicted that the Dow would hit 1 million by 2099. At first, Templeton's prediction sounded crazy. The Dow was trading at just around 10,000 at the time. But Templeton made a serious point. He calculated that the Dow would have to rise only about 4.8% per year to hit 1 million over the next 97 years. And that stocks would have to rise only 5.5% over that period to hit 2 million. A goal that at first seemed absurd suddenly seemed inevitable. And that kind of attitude is the key to wealth of all kinds. It turns out that if you share Templeton's rational optimism, you're far more likely to be financially well-off. Michelle Gielan, a positive psychology researcher, found optimism and financial well-being are closely linked: We surveyed 2,000 adults nationwide and found that optimists are seven times more likely to experience high levels of financial well-being. They feel better about their money, no matter how much they make or have, and they're significantly more likely to make positive choices about it.
So yes, Sir John Templeton was a global investing pioneer. And he paved the way for generations of global investors after him. But I believe Templeton's "rational optimism" is his most lasting legacy. Good investing, Nicholas |
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