Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

US weekly EIA oil inventories -3576K vs -3143K expected

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 07:30 AM PST

Gasoline -1458K vs +487K exp Distillates -1726K vs +175K exp Cushing +1055K Oil has erased the daily loss and is more than $1 from the lows. It gained about 40-cents on the release. API data from late yesterday: Oil -3090K Gasoline -319K Distillates 716K Cushing +1594K

US November pending home sales -2.2% vs +0.5% m/m expected

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 06:59 AM PST

    Prior was +7.5% This is a bit of a give-back after a strong jump in October but everything I'm reading about December demand has been strong. I expect US housing will be a big tailwind for the US and the US dollar in 2022 and beyond.

The US dollar isn't benefitting from rising Treasury yields today as flows dominate

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 06:49 AM PST

The US dollar continues to slide against European currencies today, led by GBP, EUR and CHF. That has all the hallmarks of a year-end flow-driven trade. On the fundamental side, US 10-year yields are up 5 bnps today to 1.53%. A rise above 1.537% would be the highest in a month. European rates are al

US hits new record for daily confirmed covid cases

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 06:41 AM PST

The CDC has been all over the place on estimating the prevalence of omicron. Last week it pegged the number at +90% but now it's revised that to around 50%. Given trends elsewhere and the high incidence of US covid before omicron, I suspect it's the lower number, which leaves plenty of runway for ca

China to set up covid buffer zones around border cities

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 06:19 AM PST

The city of Xian is in its 7th day of strict lockdown after 151 cases reported yesterday.  Xian has now banned all outings from home aside from mass testing. Previously, one person per household was allowed out every two days to buy essentials. The outbreak is said to be delta but inevitab

US November wholesale inventories +1.2% vs +1.3% expected

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 05:30 AM PST

Prior was +2.3% (revised to +2.5%)Retail inventories ex-autos +1.3%Prior retail inventories ex-autos +0.5% (revised to +0.7%)These numbers are a good sign for Q4 GDP. I expect consistent inventory building throughout 2022 and into 2023 as the global supply chain recovers and companies opt to run wit

US Nov advance goods trade balance -97.78B vs -83.2B prior

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 05:29 AM PST

Prior was -83.2B I believe this is a record goods deficit. There was a surprise bounce in October but it looks like November was payback time. Capital flows buffer the US current account but at some point the tide might go out on big-cap tech and that will leave the US dollar vulner

USD/JPY climbs to five-week high, clips 115.00

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 03:09 AM PST

The dollar is faring slightly better on the day but the usual year-end caveat applies. As much as the move here looks enticing, be reminded that it comes amid thin liquidity conditions. That makes it tough to really trust any breakout. In the case of USD/JPY, the weekly close will be an interesti

Eurozone November M3 money supply +7.3% vs +7.7% y/y prior

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 12:59 AM PST

Prior +7.7% With the ECB not turning off the taps just yet, broad money growth in the euro area continues to surge forward going into year-end with annual growth keeping at an elevated level.

Switzerland December Credit Suisse investor sentiment 0.0 vs -10.8 prior

Posted: 29 Dec 2021 12:59 AM PST

Prior -10.8A slight improvement in terms of sentiment as omicron fears are brushed aside slightly following initial concerns. Credit Suisse notes that:"Swiss financial analysts have so far shrugged off the new variant of coronavirus in their forecasts and are bringing the year to a close with a neut

What next for the bond market in 2022?

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 10:21 PM PST

Let's cut right to the chase. With the Fed set to hike rates next year, Treasury yields are staying supportive for the time being - more so on the short-end of the curve. But the question is, how much of those rate hikes have already been factored into the equation? Fed fund futures have already ful

China has raised its import quota on Australian wool in 2022

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 06:27 PM PST

Australia has born a good deal of the retaliation against the US from China related to various stresses and strains between the two. Australia is easier to kick than the US.  The Chinese Commerce Ministry has announced a boost in the import quota on Australian wool for the coming new year. That for

Hong Kong police have arrested six members of an online news outlet.

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 04:30 PM PST

The crackdown in China's once autonomous Hong Kong continues.  Associated Press convey the info of the arrest of 6 people: arrests happened early Wednesday searches of their residences were underway online outlet Stand News posted a video on Facebook of police officers at the home of

AUD/USD to appreciate from here

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 03:28 PM PST

Via a piece from NAB, this in brief: The AUD/USD has depreciated slightly over the past month on renewed fears around the virus, with the emergence of the omicron variant. We have revised down our forecasts slightly in the nearterm – around US1c lower through 2022. Overall, we see the

Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 29 December 2021

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 02:11 PM PST

Its a bit of a holiday-mood week, but ... Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

US oil inventory survey data shows a headline draw on the week

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 01:55 PM PST

The data is via a private survey and is made available to subscribers to their service.  SeekingAlpha have the numbers, just to one decimal point:

Richmond Fed December composite index +16 vs +11 prior

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 06:59 AM PST

   Prior was +11 (revised to +12) Manufacturing shipments +12 vs +4 prior Services index +12 vs +8 prior New orders +17 vs +7 prior Backlog of orders +26 vs +21 prior -- second highest on record Finished goods inventories -7 vs -23 pr

Richmond Fed index coming up next

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 06:53 AM PST

The December Richmond Fed is due at the top of the hour. Oddly, there's no economist consensus on this edition -- probably owing to the time of year -- but the prior was +11.Earlier, the Case-Shiller 20-city US house price index was up 18.4% y/y compared to 18.5% expected.

US futures point higher as risk optimism continues to reverberate

Posted: 28 Dec 2021 03:51 AM PST

S&P 500 futures +0.3% Nasdaq futures +0.5% Dow futures +0.3% It's all looking good for stocks but again, just be wary that we're navigating through thin liquidity conditions. It is hard to trust moves during the festive season to New Year's period so keep that in mind. I'd wait on any

Global daily COVID-19 cases hit record, but does it really matter?

Posted: 27 Dec 2021 11:36 PM PST

Global daily COVID-19 cases hit a new record on Monday, with more than 1.44 million infections recorded. This comes amid a surge in omicron infections and that is no surprise with the variant being the most transmissible one yet. Of note, the 7-day rolling average of cases also jumped to roughly 841

All quiet after some modest moves yesterday

Posted: 27 Dec 2021 09:41 PM PST

The yen was a notable laggard in trading yesterday amid thinner market conditions. It comes as risk trades rallied with stocks carrying over the Santa Claus rally post-Christmas. The S&P 500 hit fresh record highs and is now nearing 4,800. The unbridled optimism has also seen AUD/JPY erase its omicr

Japan Industrial Production for November (preliminary) 7.2% m/m

Posted: 27 Dec 2021 03:53 PM PST

And for the y/y comes in at 5.4%expected -5.0%, prior -4.1%Forecasts for one month ahead:1.6% (prior 9%) m/mand for 2 months ahead:5% (prior 2.1%) m/m

Japan Jobless (Unemployment) rate for November 2.8%

Posted: 27 Dec 2021 03:36 PM PST

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Surprisingly large FX moves to start the week as the mood brightens

Posted: 27 Dec 2021 02:04 PM PST

Never trust a market move between Christmas and New Years. The market was sure in a good mood though as the S&P 500 roared 65 points higher, or 1.4%, to a record 4791. It was a similar tone in FX with the yen lagging. The pound led the way by a fair margin, which is a bit concerning on the 'risk tr

Daiwa to raise base salaries for its staff in Japan for the first time in four years

Posted: 27 Dec 2021 01:07 PM PST

PM Kishida wants to spread Japan's economic recovery to wage and salary earners, not just corporations. Daiwa is Japan's 2nd largest broker and its hiking wages will signal to other firms.  Info comes via a Bloomberg report, link here for a little more (may be gated).   Meanwhile USD/JPY continues i
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