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Forexlive RSS Breaking news feed

Risk aversoin kicks in but US dollar stays under pressure. Why?

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 08:14 AM PST

US equities have come under pressure, led by fresh selling in the Nasdaq. Normally, you would see the US dollar rally against the commodity currencies as stocks decline, but that's not happening. I think if it deteriorates significantly from here that will start to unfold. Right now, the Nasdaq is d

US dollar grinds lower despite the outlook for more rate hikes

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 07:23 AM PST

The rates market is seeing a rising possibility of US hikes with four this year now nearly priced in but that dynamic isn't helping the US dollar. Instead, the dollar is testing the worst levels of the day on a number of fronts. The equity market backdrop is largely neutral and Treasury yields have

Oil quickly falls $1. Trades into negative territory on the day

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 06:49 AM PST

I think the short-term chart in oil is instructive. WTI tried three times to break above $80.50 but failed and has now fallen to $79.17 from a high of $80.40 just before the US jobs report. I'm an oil bull but I'm skeptical of the latest rally from $76 to $80. Outages in Libya are mostly

US stocks opening lower after the US jobs report

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 06:35 AM PST

The major indices are trading lower in early US trading. The Dow is down for the third day in a row. The S&P and NASDAQ are down for the fourth day. The declines are relatively modest. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average -48 points or -0.12% at 36197 S&P index -

Rising wages steal the show in the December US jobs report

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 06:01 AM PST

Why is the US dollar so solid after a weak jobs report? The US added just 199K jobs in December, much softer than the 410K consensus and the ADP rate above 800K. Two things: Firstly, the indications in the household survey (rather than the establishment survey) were stronger with unemplo

Canada December employment change 54.7K vs 24.5K estimate

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 05:30 AM PST

Canada job gains Employment change 54.7K versus 24.5K estimate Unemployment rate 5.9% versus 6.0% estimate. The pre-pandemic level was 5.7% the adjusted unemployment rate which includes people who wanted a job but did not look for one was at 7.6%. This marked the first retu

US December non-farm payrolls +199K vs +400K expected

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 05:29 AM PST

Prior was +210K Estimates ranged from +150K to +720K Two month net revision K Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 4.1% expected Prior unemployment rate 4.2% Participation rate 61.9% vs 61.8% prior (was 62.8% pre-pandemic) U6 underemployment rate 3.9% vs 7

Locked and loaded for another edition of non-farm payrolls

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 05:13 AM PST

Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 400,000 jobs in December in a report due at the bottom of the hour. Last month's reading was a disappointment at 210K. The two big pre-jobs inputs are ISM services and ADP. The employment component of the ISM services index fell to 54.9 from 56.5

ForexLive European FX news wrap: All quiet awaiting NFP release

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 04:33 AM PST

Headlines: It is the first Friday of the new month and that only means one thing.. Germany to outline new restrictions in order to tackle omicron variant China calls for banks to boost property loans amid default fears Oil continues impressive start to the new year Eurozone Dece

Oil continues impressive start to the new year

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 03:10 AM PST

Oil is up over 1% on the day as the rally since the turn of the year stretches on. It has been an impressive week for oil, all things considered. There were some intraday dips amid some knocks to risk sentiment but they have been quickly bought up and here we are. I reckon that speaks quite a bit

Germany to outline new restrictions in order to tackle omicron variant

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 02:14 AM PST

Among the steps being considered is a requirement for people with only two vaccination shots to show proof of a negative test in order to enter a restaurant or a bar i.e. only those with a booster shot do not have to do so. That said, rules on quarantine measures are likely to be relaxed so as to av

Eurozone December final consumer confidence -8.3 vs -8.3 prelim

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 02:01 AM PST

Economic confidence 115.3Prior 117.5; revised to 117.6Industrial confidence 14.9Prior 14.1; revised to 14.3Services confidence 11.2Prior 18.4; revised to 18.3Euro area economic sentiment fell towards the end of last year, as omicron risks weighed on the outlook. A positive takeaway though is that th

Eurozone November retail sales +1.0% vs -0.5% m/m expected

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 01:59 AM PST

Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3% Retail sales +7.8% y/y Prior +1.4%; revised to +1.7% A surprise growth in euro area retail sales, indicating that consumer demand is still somewhat holding up going into year-end. That despite omicron risks, though we'll see how the fresh restrictions may

Eurozone December preliminary CPI +5.0% vs +4.7% y/y expected

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 01:59 AM PST

Prior +4.9% Core CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y expected Prior +2.6% Euro area annual inflation hits 5% in December, marking yet another record high. This just reaffirms that price pressures are not quite abating just yet and that ECB policymakers are still underestimating the situation. With

UK December construction PMI 54.3 vs 55.5 prior

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 01:29 AM PST

Prior 55.5Construction activity eases to a three-month low, as tighter virus restrictions and rising COVID-19 cases weighed. A positive takeaway though is fewer supply shortages were noted, helping to see input price inflation ease to its lowest in nine months. Markit notes that:"UK construction com

Major currencies still caught in that pre-NFP lull

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 12:21 AM PST

The ranges and changes speak for themselves: Elsewhere, equities are also looking fairly tentative while Treasury yields are little changed. This is shaping up to be a typical placeholder session awaiting the US jobs report later in the day.Going back to FX, EUR/USD is still caught around 1.1300 wit

European equities fairly mixed at the open

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 12:12 AM PST

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX -0.3%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flatLooking over to US futures, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures are flat, and Dow futures up 0.2%. That follows the slightly weaker showing from Wall Street yesterday. All eyes will be on the US jobs report later f

Switzerland December foreign currency reserves CHF 944.5 billion vs CHF 1,006.4 billion prior

Posted: 07 Jan 2022 12:00 AM PST

Prior CHF 1,006.4 billion; revised to 921.7 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. Swiss foreign reserves eased a little at the end of last year (post-revision) but remains elevated as the underlying trend continues to point upwards. Don't expect that to change this year.

Germany November trade balance €10.9 billion vs €12.5 billion prior

Posted: 06 Jan 2022 11:01 PM PST

Prior €12.5 billion Exports +1.7% m/m Prior +4.1% Imports +3.3% m/m Prior +5.0% Slight delay in the release by the source. The German trade surplus shrank a little as exports grew by 1.7% on the month while imports grew by 3.3% on the month in November. This continues to reaff

UK December Halifax house prices +1.1% vs +0.7% m/m expected

Posted: 06 Jan 2022 11:00 PM PST

Prior +1.0%House prices +9.8% vs +7.7% y/y expectedPrior +8.2%Slight delay in the release by the source. Another month, another record high for UK property price - hitting £276,091 in December. Throughout the course of 2021, house prices increased by £24,500 - the largest annual increase since 2003.

Germany November industrial production -0.2% vs +1.0% m/m expected

Posted: 06 Jan 2022 10:59 PM PST

Prior +2.8%; revised to +2.4% Industrial production WDA -2.4% y/y Prior -0.6%; revised to -0.9% That's a notable miss on industrial output with the drag largely driven by a fall in the manufacture of machinery and equipment, which was down 3.6% in November. Of note, overall production

Switzerland December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2.4% vs 2.5% prior

Posted: 06 Jan 2022 10:44 PM PST

Prior 2.5%A slight tick lower in the jobless rate once again, reaffirming some continued improvement in labour market conditions. That said, the unadjusted rate did tick higher to 2.6% from 2.5% in November. Meanwhile, the number of registered unemployed stood at 121,728 last month and at least that

Trade ideas thread - European session 7 January 2021

Posted: 06 Jan 2022 10:33 PM PST

All eyes are on the US non-farm payrolls later today and it is hard to have much other conviction in the meantime. I still reckon the dollar will hold up well regardless but any immediate implications will be more for risk trades.That said, one particular risk asset stands out so far this week in my

China calls for banks to boost property loans amid default fears

Posted: 06 Jan 2022 10:25 PM PST

I outlined yesterday on why things could be looking pretty ugly in relation to the above:Shimao turmoil an ominous sign for China's property sectorOmicron risks aside, it is also best to be wary of the above situation just in case.

Nomura sees Australia Q1 GDP growth grinding to a halt amid omicron risks

Posted: 06 Jan 2022 10:16 PM PST

Adding to that, they also slashed their forecast for Australia GDP growth this year to 3.0% from 3.7% previously. In case you missed some of the headlines from earlier:Australia's most populous state set to reintroduce coronavirus restrictionsConsumer spending in Australia's two largest cities is do
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